Synchrony Financial (SYF)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $83.21 | Market Cap: $30.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
Synchrony Financial (SYF)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $83.21Market Cap: $30.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 38% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% | Key risksSYF key risks include [1] adverse regulatory actions from bodies like the CFPB, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.8 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 38% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% |
| Key risksSYF key risks include [1] adverse regulatory actions from bodies like the CFPB, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SYF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The request asks to highlight key points for a 9.5% stock movement of Synchrony Financial (SYF) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025. Since the requested period is in the future relative to my current knowledge cutoff, and to adhere to the instruction to "ignore that date and use the most recent date for which you have information" while avoiding disclaimers or apologies, the response will focus on significant events and financial results around the latest available information for Synchrony Financial. However, it's important to note that this information does not directly explain a specific 9.5% stock movement within the user-specified future timeframe. Here are key points related to Synchrony Financial's performance based on the most recent available information: 1. 1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Performance: Synchrony Financial reported robust third-quarter 2025 results, with net earnings reaching $1.1 billion, or $2.86 per diluted share, significantly beating analyst forecasts by $0.65. Revenue for the quarter was $3.82 billion, slightly exceeding expectations. The company's return on average assets was 3.6%, and return on tangible common equity stood at 30.6%. 2. 2. Despite Positive Earnings, Initial Stock Decline: Despite the strong Q3 2025 earnings beat, Synchrony's stock experienced a pre-market decline of 0.74%, trading at $72.30 following the announcement. This indicates that market reactions to earnings can be influenced by various factors beyond just beating estimates. The stock price change reflected a -3.56% market response to the earnings results. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SYF Return | -0% | 36% | -27% | 20% | 74% | 31% | 169% |
| Peers Return | -12% | 39% | -29% | 27% | 48% | 31% | 115% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SYF Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 65% | 43% | 57% | 67% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SYF Max Drawdown | -64% | -3% | -40% | -17% | -6% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -61% | -3% | -36% | -13% | -7% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COF, AXP, BFH, ALLY, WFC. See SYF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SYF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 526 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 184.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 793 days | 120 days |
Compare to BAC, C, COF, USB, GFCX
In The Past
Synchrony Financial's stock fell -48.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/19/2021. A -48.9% loss requires a 95.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SYF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Synchrony Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 87.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 91.7 |
| Rev LTM | 31,610 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 5,876 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,200 |
| CFO LTM | 6,895 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,200 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 46.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 49.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 35.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 91.7 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 15.9 |
| P/CFO | 2.8 |
| Total Yield | 9.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 24.4% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 18.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 26.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 154.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 14.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 72.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/15/2025 | -0.7% | 1.6% | 4.1% |
| 7/22/2025 | 1.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| 4/22/2025 | 2.8% | 10.5% | 27.4% |
| 1/28/2025 | -4.6% | -3.0% | -14.2% |
| 10/16/2024 | 6.1% | 4.5% | 22.8% |
| 7/17/2024 | 1.0% | -1.7% | -9.9% |
| 4/24/2024 | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% |
| 1/23/2024 | -0.9% | 3.8% | 5.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 16 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 4.6% | 11.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -3.9% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.2% | 13.0% | 27.4% |
| Max Negative | -9.9% | -8.5% | -14.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10222025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7192024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10242023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7212023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4202023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |