Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 51%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.6%, Dist 3Y High is -0.6%
Key risks
SPG key risks include [1] its substantial debt burden and sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.1 Bil
  
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.1%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 51%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.1 Bil
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.1%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.6%, Dist 3Y High is -0.6%
6 Key risks
SPG key risks include [1] its substantial debt burden and sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SPG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the 4.5% movement in Simon Property (SPG) stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings: Simon Property Group reported robust results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 3, 2025, with Real Estate Funds From Operations (FFO) per share reaching $3.22, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $3.09. The company's revenue also exceeded expectations, coming in at $1.60 billion. Furthermore, domestic property Net Operating Income (NOI) increased by 5.1% year-over-year, and the total portfolio NOI grew by 5.2%.

2. Increased Full-Year 2025 FFO Guidance: Following its strong third-quarter performance, Simon Property Group raised its full-year 2025 Real Estate FFO guidance. The new range was set at $12.60 to $12.70 per diluted share, an increase from its prior guidance of $12.45 to $12.65 per share, signaling a positive outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SPG Return-39%96%-22%29%27%11%71%
Peers Return-31%67%-17%16%20%-6%25%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SPG Win Rate42%83%25%58%75%58% 
Peers Win Rate42%78%37%53%63%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SPG Max Drawdown-70%-3%-43%-13%-4%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-60%-3%-33%-15%-11%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KIM, REG, BRX, FRT, MAC. See SPG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSPGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven746 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-70.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven238.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven578 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-23.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-78.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven372.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven853 days1,480 days

Compare to REG, MAC, CBL, SPG, O


In The Past

Simon Property's stock fell -48.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -48.8% loss requires a 95.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Simon Property (SPG)

Better Bets than Simon Property (SPG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SPG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-1.7%-1.7%-5.8%
SPG_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022SPGSimon PropertyDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
27.7%29.7%-6.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-1.7%-1.7%-5.8%
SPG_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022SPGSimon PropertyDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
27.7%29.7%-6.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Simon Property

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SPGKIMREGBRXFRTMACMedian
NameSimon Pr.Kimco Re.Regency .Brixmor .Federal .Macerich  
Mkt Price184.2220.4568.0525.95101.7018.3647.00
Mkt Cap60.113.812.48.08.74.710.6
Rev LTM6,1552,0951,5221,3461,2541,0261,434
Op Inc LTM3,120692571481451180526
FCF LTM3,1211,065815635336326725
FCF 3Y Avg3,0661,008754606276301680
CFO LTM4,0181,065815635597326725
CFO 3Y Avg3,8701,008754606572301680

Growth & Margins

SPGKIMREGBRXFRTMACMedian
NameSimon Pr.Kimco Re.Regency .Brixmor .Federal .Macerich  
Rev Chg LTM4.2%10.2%5.6%5.7%6.0%16.2%5.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.7%8.3%8.1%3.8%6.2%6.3%6.2%
Rev Chg Q8.2%5.0%7.6%6.3%6.1%15.0%6.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.0%1.2%1.8%1.5%1.5%3.3%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM50.7%33.0%37.5%35.7%36.0%17.5%35.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg50.4%32.7%36.1%36.1%35.1%18.4%35.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%0.3%0.6%0.2%-0.2%0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM65.3%50.8%53.6%47.2%47.6%31.8%49.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg66.1%52.8%53.3%47.2%48.2%32.5%50.5%
FCF/Rev LTM50.7%50.8%53.6%47.2%26.8%31.8%48.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg52.3%52.8%53.3%47.2%23.1%32.5%49.7%

Valuation

SPGKIMREGBRXFRTMACMedian
NameSimon Pr.Kimco Re.Regency .Brixmor .Federal .Macerich  
Mkt Cap60.113.812.48.08.74.710.6
P/S10.07.08.76.36.94.57.0
P/EBIT17.318.721.315.416.2469.218.0
P/E27.324.732.225.625.1-11.925.3
P/CFO15.213.816.313.414.614.214.4
Total Yield4.4%4.1%6.9%8.0%4.0%-4.5%4.2%
Dividend Yield0.7%0.0%3.8%4.1%0.0%4.0%2.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.4%7.6%6.1%8.0%3.2%8.9%7.0%
D/E0.40.60.40.60.61.10.6
Net D/E0.40.50.40.60.51.10.5

Returns

SPGKIMREGBRXFRTMACMedian
NameSimon Pr.Kimco Re.Regency .Brixmor .Federal .Macerich  
1M Rtn3.0%3.0%-0.5%-0.0%5.9%11.8%3.0%
3M Rtn2.7%-5.6%-1.4%-5.7%3.6%5.0%0.7%
6M Rtn20.1%-0.3%-1.7%2.8%8.8%16.7%5.8%
12M Rtn7.6%-11.7%-6.2%-5.4%-7.0%-10.7%-6.6%
3Y Rtn86.2%11.4%22.7%34.4%12.9%80.2%28.5%
1M Excs Rtn2.3%2.3%-1.2%-0.8%5.2%11.1%2.3%
3M Excs Rtn2.2%-7.9%-3.5%-7.1%1.3%3.0%-1.1%
6M Excs Rtn7.7%-12.6%-14.1%-9.6%-3.6%4.3%-6.6%
12M Excs Rtn-3.3%-23.9%-16.2%-17.3%-18.1%-22.4%-17.7%
3Y Excs Rtn14.2%-60.1%-48.7%-36.9%-60.9%2.8%-42.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Real estate segment5,323    
All other & eliminations, net336    
Lease income 4,9054,7374,3025,244
Management fees and other revenues 11710697113
Other income 269274208398
Total5,6595,2915,1174,6085,755


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,522,950
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-0.7%
Average Daily Volume1,165,874
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.88
Basic Shares Quantity326,485,607
Short % of Basic Shares1.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/20253.4%3.5%5.0%
8/4/20253.3%0.8%9.7%
5/12/2025-6.2%-4.1%-5.6%
2/4/20253.3%6.4%0.7%
11/1/2024-0.8%3.9%7.2%
8/5/20245.1%3.4%11.5%
5/6/20242.4%1.8%6.2%
2/5/20244.8%6.5%11.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141615
# Negative1089
Median Positive3.4%4.7%9.6%
Median Negative-3.1%-3.8%-5.6%
Max Positive6.4%12.1%50.7%
Max Negative-6.2%-6.1%-9.8%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0LEWIS RANDALL J11182025Buy180.80588106,310945,222Form