Sable Offshore (SOC)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $12.94 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Sable Offshore (SOC)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $12.94Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 | ||
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -306 Mil | ||
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 55% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -61% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 22% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -306 Mil |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 55% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -61% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 22% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
SOC Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SOC Return | - | - | - | - | - | -44% | -42% |
| Peers Return | -32% | 18% | 84% | 3% | -27% | 0% | 10% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SOC Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 25% | 53% | 60% | 33% | 42% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SOC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -1% | -3% | -22% | -34% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NE, HP, VAL, RIG, PTEN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/30/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SOC has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1858 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Sable Offshore Earnings Notes | |||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| SOC Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Market Movers | Winners: CYTK, IONS, UTHR | Losers: UP, SOC, DNA | September 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: LCID, SOC, PGY | Losers: CDNA, ELV, SAH | July 18th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SOC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | TDW | Tidewater | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.4% | -5.4% | -11.3% |
| 09302025 | OKE | ONEOK | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.6% | -8.6% | -8.6% |
| 08312025 | LEU | Centrus Energy | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 90.0% | 90.0% | -1.3% |
| 05312025 | KNTK | Kinetik | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.1% | -14.1% | -18.1% |
| 04302025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.1% | 14.5% | -11.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | TDW | Tidewater | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.4% | -5.4% | -11.3% |
| 09302025 | OKE | ONEOK | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.6% | -8.6% | -8.6% |
| 08312025 | LEU | Centrus Energy | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 90.0% | 90.0% | -1.3% |
| 05312025 | KNTK | Kinetik | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.1% | -14.1% | -18.1% |
| 04302025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.1% | 14.5% | -11.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sable Offshore
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 19.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| Rev LTM | 3,438 |
| Op Inc LTM | 412 |
| FCF LTM | 289 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 213 |
| CFO LTM | 594 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 657 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 30.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 2.3 |
| P/E | -2.0 |
| P/CFO | 5.3 |
| Total Yield | -1.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 19.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 37.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -13.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -27.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.8% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2025 | -2.1% | -1.0% | -15.5% |
| 11/14/2024 | -8.2% | 2.4% | -2.9% |
| 8/13/2024 | 6.3% | 4.0% | 44.9% |
| 5/15/2024 | 13.6% | 3.2% | 19.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # Negative | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 10.0% | 3.2% | 32.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -1.0% | -9.2% |
| Max Positive | 13.6% | 4.0% | 44.9% |
| Max Negative | -8.2% | -1.0% | -15.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11222021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8162021 | 10-Q 6/30/2021 |
| 3312021 | 5282021 | 10-Q 3/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |