Sable Offshore (SOC)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $5.49 | Market Cap: $546.2 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Sable Offshore (SOC)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $5.49Market Cap: $546.2 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -363 Mil | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 115% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 31% | |
| Key risksSOC key risks include [1] a critical inability to restart production at its core Santa Ynez Unit, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -363 Mil |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 115% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 31% |
| Key risksSOC key risks include [1] a critical inability to restart production at its core Santa Ynez Unit, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SOC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the approximate -79.9% movement in Sable Offshore (SOC) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025:
1. Class-action lawsuit and allegations of misleading investors regarding oil production status. A class-action lawsuit was underway as of August 25, 2025, alleging that Sable Offshore and its executives misrepresented the company's oil production status to investors. The lawsuit claimed the company misled investors by stating it had restarted oil production when it had not, with California's Lieutenant Governor clarifying that reported oil flows were "well-testing procedures" rather than "commercial production." This news previously caused a significant stock drop and the ongoing litigation contributed to negative investor sentiment.
2. Judicial intervention and continued prohibition on pipeline restart. On June 4, 2025, a Santa Barbara County Superior Court judge issued a temporary restraining order preventing Sable Offshore from restarting oil transportation through the Las Flores Pipeline System, which reportedly caused a further stock decline. Throughout the requested period, the company's produced oil was being held in storage at Las Flores Canyon, awaiting regulatory approvals for either the pipeline or an alternative Offshore Storage and Treating Vessel to recommence sales.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SOC Return | � | � | � | � | � | -76% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | 79% | -16% | -38% | -5% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SOC Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 50% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 64% | 63% | 35% | 25% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SOC Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -82% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -0% | -31% | -45% | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APA, MUR, TALO, KOS, WTI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SOC has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1858 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Sable Offshore Earnings Notes | |||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| SOC Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Market Movers | Winners: CYTK, IONS, UTHR | Losers: UP, SOC, DNA | September 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: LCID, SOC, PGY | Losers: CDNA, ELV, SAH | July 18th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SOC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sable Offshore
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.04 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,632 |
| Op Inc LTM | -28 |
| FCF LTM | 405 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 648 |
| CFO LTM | 1,083 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 796 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -11.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 49.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 43.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | -4.4 |
| P/E | -2.1 |
| P/CFO | 2.8 |
| Total Yield | -28.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -44.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -114.1% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/13/2025 | -28.9% | -27.7% | |
| 8/12/2025 | -2.1% | -1.0% | -15.5% |
| 11/14/2024 | -8.2% | 2.4% | -2.9% |
| 8/13/2024 | 6.3% | 4.0% | 44.9% |
| 5/15/2024 | 13.6% | 3.2% | 19.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # Negative | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 10.0% | 3.2% | 32.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.2% | -14.3% | -9.2% |
| Max Positive | 13.6% | 4.0% | 44.9% |
| Max Negative | -28.9% | -27.7% | -15.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11222021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8162021 | 10-Q 6/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |