Sable Offshore (SOC)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $5.19 | Market Cap: $473.5 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Sable Offshore (SOC)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $5.19Market Cap: $473.5 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -306 Mil | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 114% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -306 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 114% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 30% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SOC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, Sable Offshore (SOC) experienced an 81.1% decline in its stock price, driven by several critical operational, financial, and regulatory challenges.
1. Continued Absence of Revenue and Significant Net Losses. Sable Offshore restarted production in May 2025 but has been unable to sell commercial quantities of oil, storing it onshore. This resulted in no revenue reported for the third quarter of 2025, leading to a net loss of $110.4 million, significantly wider than analyst estimates. The lack of sales income, despite ongoing production costs, heavily impacted the company's financial performance.
2. Persistent Regulatory Roadblocks and Extensive Litigation. The company faced numerous legal and regulatory hurdles, delaying the restart of its Las Flores Pipeline System. These included 21 criminal charges filed by the Santa Barbara County District Attorney's Office for alleged environmental violations in September 2025, and an $18 million fine from the California Coastal Commission in April 2025 for unpermitted construction activities. The California Office of the State Fire Marshal also stated in October 2025 that Sable was not permitted to restart the pipeline until all safety requirements were met, and a superior court judge denied Sable's claims against the California Coastal Commission in October 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SOC Return | - | - | - | - | - | -78% | -78% |
| Peers Return | -32% | 18% | 84% | 3% | -27% | 9% | 20% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SOC Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 25% | 53% | 60% | 33% | 42% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SOC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -82% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -1% | -3% | -22% | -34% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NE, HP, RIG, VAL, PTEN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SOC has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1858 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Sable Offshore Earnings Notes | |||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| SOC Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Sable Offshore (SOC) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Market Movers | Winners: CYTK, IONS, UTHR | Losers: UP, SOC, DNA | September 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: LCID, SOC, PGY | Losers: CDNA, ELV, SAH | July 18th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SOC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sable Offshore
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.6 |
| Rev LTM | 3,438 |
| Op Inc LTM | 430 |
| FCF LTM | 289 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 213 |
| CFO LTM | 606 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 657 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 30.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.6 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 1.7 |
| P/E | -2.0 |
| P/CFO | 4.9 |
| Total Yield | -1.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 39.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -6.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 23.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -80.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11222021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8162021 | 10-Q 6/30/2021 |
| 3312021 | 5282021 | 10-Q 3/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |