Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies.
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -306 Mil
2  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37%
3  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 114%
4  Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 30%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies.
1 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -306 Mil
3 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37%
4 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 114%
5 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 30%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SOC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, Sable Offshore (SOC) experienced an 81.1% decline in its stock price, driven by several critical operational, financial, and regulatory challenges. 1. Continued Absence of Revenue and Significant Net Losses. Sable Offshore restarted production in May 2025 but has been unable to sell commercial quantities of oil, storing it onshore. This resulted in no revenue reported for the third quarter of 2025, leading to a net loss of $110.4 million, significantly wider than analyst estimates. The lack of sales income, despite ongoing production costs, heavily impacted the company's financial performance.

2. Persistent Regulatory Roadblocks and Extensive Litigation. The company faced numerous legal and regulatory hurdles, delaying the restart of its Las Flores Pipeline System. These included 21 criminal charges filed by the Santa Barbara County District Attorney's Office for alleged environmental violations in September 2025, and an $18 million fine from the California Coastal Commission in April 2025 for unpermitted construction activities. The California Office of the State Fire Marshal also stated in October 2025 that Sable was not permitted to restart the pipeline until all safety requirements were met, and a superior court judge denied Sable's claims against the California Coastal Commission in October 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SOC Return------78%-78%
Peers Return-32%18%84%3%-27%9%20%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SOC Win Rate----50%40% 
Peers Win Rate25%53%60%33%42%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SOC Max Drawdown------82% 
Peers Max Drawdown-49%-1%-3%-22%-34%-41% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NE, HP, RIG, VAL, PTEN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SOC has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven660 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1201 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-57.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1858 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Sable Offshore (SOC)

Better Bets than Sable Offshore (SOC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SOC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.8%11.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.7%17.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.7%5.7%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
25.5%25.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.7%0.7%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.8%11.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.7%17.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.7%5.7%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
25.5%25.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.7%0.7%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Sable Offshore

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SOCNEHPRIGVALPTENMedian
NameSable Of.Noble Helmeric.Transoce.Valaris Patterso. 
Mkt Price5.1032.5330.074.4359.606.4818.27
Mkt Cap0.55.23.04.34.22.53.6
Rev LTM03,4483,4283,8742,4164,8383,438
Op Inc LTM-306636312601548-67430
FCF LTM-39237482250289289
FCF 3Y Avg-2492131-64395213
CFO LTM-901505606599880606
CFO 3Y Avg-7226573964171,016657

Growth & Margins

SOCNEHPRIGVALPTENMedian
NameSable Of.Noble Helmeric.Transoce.Valaris Patterso. 
Rev Chg LTM-24.3%25.9%16.9%6.8%-16.6%16.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-59.6%27.4%14.6%-33.5%30.5%
Rev Chg Q--0.3%49.2%8.4%-7.4%-13.4%-0.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM--0.1%11.1%2.1%-1.9%-3.6%-0.1%
Op Mgn LTM-18.5%9.1%15.5%22.7%-1.4%15.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-21.8%14.2%5.9%12.6%4.9%12.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--2.2%-3.0%2.0%0.7%1.4%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-26.1%14.7%15.6%24.8%18.2%18.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-24.3%22.5%11.6%19.3%22.1%22.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-11.4%1.1%12.4%10.3%6.0%10.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-8.2%7.5%-1.5%-2.9%8.5%7.5%

Valuation

SOCNEHPRIGVALPTENMedian
NameSable Of.Noble Helmeric.Transoce.Valaris Patterso. 
Mkt Cap0.55.23.04.34.22.53.6
P/S-1.30.40.81.40.40.8
P/EBIT-3.68.17.5-1.24.7-29.71.7
P/E-3.019.8-48.8-1.08.6-14.6-2.0
P/CFO-5.03.04.95.82.34.9
Total Yield-32.8%8.6%0.7%-97.8%11.6%-3.8%-1.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.6%2.8%0.0%0.0%3.1%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.9%6.4%2.5%-1.3%14.0%4.9%
D/E0.40.41.52.10.30.60.5
Net D/E0.30.31.31.80.10.60.4

Returns

SOCNEHPRIGVALPTENMedian
NameSable Of.Noble Helmeric.Transoce.Valaris Patterso. 
1M Rtn-13.6%13.9%16.2%13.6%8.9%9.3%11.5%
3M Rtn-77.8%14.6%45.8%42.9%18.6%12.7%16.6%
6M Rtn-78.0%27.1%89.0%64.7%51.0%19.6%39.0%
12M Rtn-75.1%6.9%-10.3%4.0%32.3%-16.7%-3.1%
3Y Rtn-3.0%-27.0%11.6%-6.2%-55.6%-6.2%
1M Excs Rtn-14.8%12.7%15.0%12.3%7.6%8.1%10.2%
3M Excs Rtn-83.4%9.7%44.4%38.5%10.8%10.1%10.5%
6M Excs Rtn-93.5%11.6%73.5%49.2%35.5%4.2%23.6%
12M Excs Rtn-89.6%-8.5%-23.9%-11.8%15.2%-31.5%-17.9%
3Y Excs Rtn--69.3%-104.8%-64.1%-80.2%-131.7%-80.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity27,132,075
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120259.3%
Average Daily Volume11,631,951
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.33
Basic Shares Quantity91,224,345
Short % of Basic Shares29.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
93020241114202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
12312023328202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023814202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022331202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022815202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021404202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211122202110-Q 9/30/2021
6302021816202110-Q 6/30/2021
3312021528202110-Q 3/31/2021