Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies.
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -363 Mil
2  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 115%
3  Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 31%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies.
1 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -363 Mil
3 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 115%
4 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 31%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SOC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Poor Financial Results. Sable Offshore Corp. reported a significant net loss of $110.4 million for the third quarter ended November 13, 2025, which was primarily attributed to production restart-related operating expenses and non-cash interest expense.

2. Legal and Regulatory Headwinds. The company encountered new litigation from the Santa Barbara County District Attorney on September 16, 2025, regarding its pipeline operations. Additionally, Sable Offshore responded to allegations of compliance deficiencies from the California Office of the State Fire Marshal on October 24, 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SOC Return-75%
Peers Return79%-16%-38%-2%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SOC Win Rate50%42% 
Peers Win Rate64%63%35%25%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SOC Max Drawdown-82% 
Peers Max Drawdown-0%-31%-45%-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APA, MUR, TALO, KOS, WTI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SOC has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven660 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1201 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-57.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1858 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Sable Offshore (SOC)

Better Bets than Sable Offshore (SOC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SOC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.5%12.5%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.1%12.1%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
31.1%31.1%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.0%-2.0%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.5%12.5%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.1%12.1%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
31.1%31.1%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.0%-2.0%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Sable Offshore

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SOCAPAMURTALOKOSWTIMedian
NameSable Of.APA Murphy O.Talos En.Kosmos E.W&T Offs. 
Mkt Price6.1625.9333.3711.381.021.708.77
Mkt Cap1.79.34.82.00.50.31.9
Rev LTM09,6412,7461,8731,3915001,632
Op Inc LTM-3632,947492-5-105-51-28
FCF LTM-1,9034051,083-131-7405
FCF 3Y Avg-1,273648789-182-5648
CFO LTM-4,7731,4321,083274471,083
CFO 3Y Avg-3,9661,66479660380796

Growth & Margins

SOCAPAMURTALOKOSWTIMedian
NameSable Of.APA Murphy O.Talos En.Kosmos E.W&T Offs. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.9%-13.9%-0.0%-22.1%-6.9%-6.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--3.1%-11.7%5.3%-14.5%-16.7%-11.7%
Rev Chg Q--16.4%-4.3%-11.6%-23.7%5.1%-11.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM--4.1%-1.2%-3.1%-6.5%1.2%-3.1%
Op Mgn LTM-30.6%17.9%-0.3%-7.6%-10.1%-0.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-35.3%25.4%9.1%24.7%-0.1%24.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.8%-2.1%-2.6%-11.4%1.4%-2.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-49.5%52.1%57.8%19.7%9.4%49.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-43.2%52.6%45.4%35.9%14.5%43.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-19.7%14.8%57.8%-9.4%-1.4%14.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-13.8%20.3%45.0%-11.0%-0.9%13.8%

Valuation

SOCAPAMURTALOKOSWTIMedian
NameSable Of.APA Murphy O.Talos En.Kosmos E.W&T Offs. 
Mkt Cap1.79.34.82.00.50.31.9
P/S-0.91.50.90.60.50.9
P/EBIT-2.811.6-6.8-8.2-4.4-4.4
P/E-2.95.728.4-4.7-2.4-1.8-2.1
P/CFO-1.82.81.52.95.82.8
Total Yield-34.7%21.6%8.0%-21.4%-41.5%-51.9%-28.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%4.2%4.5%0.0%0.0%2.2%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-13.2%12.4%43.9%-11.8%-1.6%12.4%
D/E-0.50.50.73.81.30.7
Net D/E-0.50.40.53.70.80.5

Returns

SOCAPAMURTALOKOSWTIMedian
NameSable Of.APA Murphy O.Talos En.Kosmos E.W&T Offs. 
1M Rtn47.0%4.6%10.7%5.0%-28.2%-11.5%4.8%
3M Rtn-73.3%14.8%30.7%18.5%-38.9%-1.2%6.8%
6M Rtn-73.0%26.5%34.5%21.7%-54.7%-20.1%0.8%
12M Rtn-70.5%19.4%15.9%14.3%-66.1%2.5%8.4%
3Y Rtn--35.8%-12.4%-40.9%-82.4%-70.1%-40.9%
1M Excs Rtn-3.4%8.9%17.3%9.9%-29.3%-10.2%2.7%
3M Excs Rtn-75.2%11.2%25.8%16.5%-42.9%-5.0%3.1%
6M Excs Rtn-87.2%12.3%20.3%7.5%-68.9%-34.3%-13.4%
12M Excs Rtn-82.8%9.5%2.9%-3.7%-85.6%-16.4%-10.0%
3Y Excs Rtn--107.3%-86.2%-114.6%-156.2%-142.8%-114.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity30,539,471
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202512.6%
Average Daily Volume5,902,603
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.17
Basic Shares Quantity99,485,641
Short % of Basic Shares30.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/13/2025-28.9%-27.7% 
8/12/2025-2.1%-1.0%-15.5%
11/14/2024-8.2%2.4%-2.9%
8/13/20246.3%4.0%44.9%
5/15/202413.6%3.2%19.8%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive232
# Negative323
Median Positive10.0%3.2%32.4%
Median Negative-8.2%-14.3%-9.2%
Max Positive13.6%4.0%44.9%
Max Negative-28.9%-27.7%-15.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
93020241114202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
12312023328202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023814202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022331202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022815202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021404202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211122202110-Q 9/30/2021
6302021816202110-Q 6/30/2021