Safe & Green (SGBX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.86 | Market Cap: $0.6 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Safe & Green (SGBX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.86Market Cap: $0.6 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -96% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -150%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -172% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -11 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -266% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 155% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -50%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -40% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -237%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -249% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -284% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 295% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 608% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -96% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -150%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -172% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -11 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -266% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 155% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -50%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -40% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -237%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -249% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -284% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 295% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 608% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SGBX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Based on the provided search results for Safe & Green (SGBX) during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, a precise -71.6% stock movement cannot be directly attributed to a single event or a set of explicitly stated reasons within this timeframe. However, the information indicates significant volatility and a series of corporate actions that would likely impact stock price.
Here are key points highlighting potential factors for a significant stock movement, derived from events within or immediately surrounding the specified period:
1. Reverse Stock Split and Dilution Management: Safe & Green Holdings Corp. executed a 64-for-1 reverse stock split on September 8, 2025, to meet Nasdaq's minimum bid price requirement. This action, while aimed at compliance, can often lead to short-term stock price adjustments and investor uncertainty. The company also restructured agreements, cutting potential dilution by over 80% and eliminating certain warrants to strengthen its capital structure.
2. Shift in Business Strategy to Energy Sector: During this period, Safe & Green was formally shifting its business strategy away from modular home construction towards becoming an integrated energy enterprise, centered on its Olenox subsidiary's oil, gas, services, and technologies divisions. This strategic pivot involved plans for an aggressive drilling program starting in Q4 2025 and shareholder approval to convert preferred shares into common stock to complete a merger, which could introduce both opportunity and risk perceptions among investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SGBX Return | 94% | -69% | -27% | -38% | -95% | -90% | -100% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 14% | -9% | 52% | 40% | 11% | 186% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SGBX Win Rate | 50% | 17% | 50% | 42% | 8% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 58% | 38% | 62% | 60% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SGBX Max Drawdown | -57% | -69% | -43% | -54% | -96% | -94% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -11% | -29% | -2% | -5% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GGG, GHM, PH, ITW, GWW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SGBX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -92.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1224.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 511.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -97.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4618.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to GGG, GHM, PH, ITW, GWW
In The Past
Safe & Green's stock fell -92.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/19/2021. A -92.5% loss requires a 1224.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Safe & Green Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SGBX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Safe & Green
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 166.51 |
| Mkt Cap | 30.1 |
| Rev LTM | 9,038 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,538 |
| FCF LTM | 928 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,003 |
| CFO LTM | 1,360 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,331 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 30.1 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 19.3 |
| P/E | 26.3 |
| P/CFO | 22.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -26.1% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 6132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4012025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11272024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5172024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 5072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11162022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5242022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |