Tearsheet

Graco (GGG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $83.185 | Market Cap: $13.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Graco (GGG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $83.185
Market Cap: $13.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -43%
Key risks
GGG key risks include [1] sales declines driven by cyclical weakness in its construction, Show more.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Water Infrastructure, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Water Infrastructure, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -43%
5 Key risks
GGG key risks include [1] sales declines driven by cyclical weakness in its construction, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GGG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining Graco's (GGG) stock movement of -2.3% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Graco's Q3 2025 Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) Missed Analyst Estimates. The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.73 per share for the third quarter of 2025, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.75 per share.

2. The Company's Q3 2025 Net Sales Lacked Consensus Expectations. Graco's net sales for the third quarter were $543.4 million, which lagged behind the consensus estimate of approximately $562 million.

3. Organic Sales Declined in Q3 2025, Masked by Acquisitions. While overall revenue increased by 5% year-over-year, primarily driven by acquisitions, the company's organic sales saw a 2% decline, indicating underlying challenges in its core business operations.

4. The Contractor Segment Faced Headwinds, Leading to Organic Sales Decline. The Contractor segment experienced a 3% drop in organic sales during the third quarter, attributed to subdued construction activity and cautious consumer sentiment in North America.

5. Increased Tariff Costs Negatively Impacted Profitability. Graco reported that tariffs added $5 million in costs during the third quarter, which had a negative effect on the company's gross margin.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GGG Return41%13%-15%31%-2%-1%71%
Peers Return16%33%-15%29%8%7%97%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GGG Win Rate67%58%33%67%50%58% 
Peers Win Rate58%70%38%53%55%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GGG Max Drawdown-24%-9%-29%-1%-10%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-42%-7%-32%-5%-9%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NDSN, ITW, DOV, IR, ITT. See GGG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGGGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-29.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven356 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-30.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven141 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-23.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven156 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-68.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven218.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven776 days1,480 days

Compare to ITW, PNR, NDSN, ATR, TTC


In The Past

Graco's stock fell -29.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -29.4% loss requires a 41.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Graco (GGG)

Better Bets than Graco (GGG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GGG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Graco

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GGGNDSNITWDOVIRITTMedian
NameGraco Nordson Illinois.Dover Ingersol.ITT  
Mkt Price83.16238.07252.40196.1578.12172.08184.12
Mkt Cap13.813.473.426.930.913.420.4
Rev LTM2,1922,78415,8837,9237,4583,8145,636
Op Inc LTM5826894,1621,3231,4776641,006
FCF LTM6255432,8455671,250546596
FCF 3Y Avg4965762,8118861,200454731
CFO LTM6726133,2777841,383664728
CFO 3Y Avg6226293,2651,0721,328568851

Growth & Margins

GGGNDSNITWDOVIRITTMedian
NameGraco Nordson Illinois.Dover Ingersol.ITT  
Rev Chg LTM2.9%4.5%-0.4%2.6%4.2%8.0%3.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.0%3.6%0.5%-1.6%9.4%9.6%2.3%
Rev Chg Q4.7%12.1%2.3%4.8%5.1%12.9%4.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%3.0%0.6%1.2%1.3%3.1%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM26.6%24.7%26.2%16.7%19.8%17.4%22.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg28.0%25.3%25.9%16.2%19.1%17.1%22.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.5%0.2%0.4%-0.1%-0.0%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM30.7%22.0%20.6%9.9%18.5%17.4%19.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg28.7%23.5%20.4%13.9%18.7%16.1%19.6%
FCF/Rev LTM28.5%19.5%17.9%7.2%16.8%14.3%17.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg22.8%21.5%17.6%11.5%16.9%12.8%17.2%

Valuation

GGGNDSNITWDOVIRITTMedian
NameGraco Nordson Illinois.Dover Ingersol.ITT  
Mkt Cap13.813.473.426.930.913.420.4
P/S6.44.34.82.94.43.74.4
P/EBIT23.018.018.015.827.820.719.4
P/E28.326.625.110.260.028.927.4
P/CFO20.919.723.129.223.721.022.1
Total Yield4.8%5.2%6.3%11.1%1.8%4.2%5.0%
Dividend Yield1.3%1.5%2.3%1.2%0.1%0.8%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.6%4.4%3.8%3.9%3.7%4.1%3.8%
D/E0.00.20.10.10.10.10.1
Net D/E-0.00.20.10.10.10.00.1

Returns

GGGNDSNITWDOVIRITTMedian
NameGraco Nordson Illinois.Dover Ingersol.ITT  
1M Rtn4.9%4.9%4.6%9.2%6.0%-5.4%4.9%
3M Rtn-1.6%6.8%-3.2%14.7%-1.1%-3.9%-1.3%
6M Rtn-1.1%12.3%5.9%12.3%-3.3%14.7%9.1%
12M Rtn-2.3%8.2%-3.5%0.9%-19.8%16.5%-0.7%
3Y Rtn30.7%4.7%24.1%52.4%51.3%130.2%41.0%
1M Excs Rtn4.2%4.1%3.8%8.5%5.3%-6.1%4.2%
3M Excs Rtn-3.2%3.6%-5.0%12.5%-5.5%-7.1%-4.1%
6M Excs Rtn-13.5%-0.1%-6.5%-0.1%-15.6%2.3%-3.3%
12M Excs Rtn-15.2%-4.0%-16.0%-12.4%-33.7%4.1%-13.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-43.2%-64.4%-48.4%-23.4%-24.0%47.7%-33.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Unallocated corporate815543805514321
Contractor712753600438369
Industrial640578602632615
Process555565436404387
Total2,7222,4392,4431,9881,692


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,525,228
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.2%
Average Daily Volume998,685
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.53
Basic Shares Quantity165,733,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
1/27/2025-3.0%-3.1%-0.1%
1/29/20242.0%1.1%5.7%
1/30/20232.6%6.7%3.9%
1/31/20222.4%-1.0%-1.1%
1/25/2021-4.9%-7.2%-6.6%
1/27/20207.1%4.1%4.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive433
# Negative233
Median Positive2.5%4.1%4.5%
Median Negative-3.9%-3.1%-1.1%
Max Positive7.1%6.7%5.7%
Max Negative-4.9%-7.2%-6.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251022202510-Q 9/26/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/27/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/28/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/27/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/27/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/28/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/29/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/29/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/29/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/30/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 7/1/2022
3312022427202210-Q 4/1/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021