Tearsheet

Graco (GGG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.975 | Market Cap: $13.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Graco (GGG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.975
Market Cap: $13.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Water Infrastructure, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Water Infrastructure, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GGG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining Graco's (GGG) stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Graco missed Q3 2025 earnings and revenue estimates. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.73, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.75, and net sales of $543.4 million, which lagged the consensus estimate of $562 million. This underperformance contributed to the stock's decline following the announcement on October 22/23, 2025, with reports indicating a drop of 1.55% to 1.98%. 2. Revenue growth was primarily driven by acquisitions, masking organic sales decline. While Graco reported a 5% year-over-year increase in third-quarter sales, this growth was largely attributed to incremental sales from acquired operations. This suggested underlying organic sales weakness, which can be a concern for investors.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GGG Return41%13%-15%31%-2%-1%71%
Peers Return20%18%-9%19%6%-3%59%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GGG Win Rate67%58%33%67%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate65%58%40%57%57%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GGG Max Drawdown-24%-9%-29%-1%-10%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-7%-29%-9%-11%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ITW, PNR, NDSN, ATR, TTC. See GGG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGGGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-29.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven356 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-30.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven141 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-23.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven156 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-68.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven218.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven776 days1480 days

Compare to ITW, PNR, NDSN, ATR, TTC


In The Past

Graco's stock fell -29.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -29.4% loss requires a 41.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Graco (GGG)

Better Bets than Graco (GGG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GGG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Graco

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GGGITWPNRNDSNATRTTCMedian
NameGraco Illinois.Pentair Nordson AptarGro.Toro  
Mkt Price82.99250.04106.47238.59122.0671.23114.27
Mkt Cap13.872.717.413.58.07.013.6
Rev LTM2,19215,8834,1282,7843,6634,5203,895
Op Inc LTM5824,162864689524508635
FCF LTM6252,845783543306492584
FCF 3Y Avg4962,811675576297330536
CFO LTM6723,277850613565589643
CFO 3Y Avg6223,265748629592456626

Growth & Margins

GGGITWPNRNDSNATRTTCMedian
NameGraco Illinois.Pentair Nordson AptarGro.Toro  
Rev Chg LTM2.9%-0.4%0.8%4.5%2.5%0.7%1.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.0%0.5%0.2%3.6%3.1%1.9%1.4%
Rev Chg Q4.7%2.3%2.9%12.1%5.7%-2.2%3.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%0.6%0.7%3.0%1.4%-0.6%0.9%
Op Mgn LTM26.6%26.2%20.9%24.7%14.3%11.2%22.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg28.0%25.9%18.8%25.3%13.5%12.1%22.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.2%0.5%0.5%-0.3%0.0%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM30.7%20.6%20.6%22.0%15.4%13.0%20.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg28.7%20.4%18.2%23.5%16.6%10.0%19.3%
FCF/Rev LTM28.5%17.9%19.0%19.5%8.4%10.9%18.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg22.8%17.6%16.4%21.5%8.3%7.3%17.0%

Valuation

GGGITWPNRNDSNATRTTCMedian
NameGraco Illinois.Pentair Nordson AptarGro.Toro  
Mkt Cap13.872.717.413.58.07.013.6
P/S6.44.84.44.32.41.54.4
P/EBIT23.018.022.018.015.615.118.0
P/E28.325.127.726.620.921.025.8
P/CFO20.923.121.319.715.611.920.3
Total Yield4.8%6.3%4.5%5.2%6.1%6.9%5.7%
Dividend Yield1.3%2.3%0.9%1.5%1.4%2.2%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.6%3.8%4.5%4.4%3.2%4.0%3.9%
D/E0.00.10.10.20.10.20.1
Net D/E-0.00.10.10.20.10.10.1

Returns

GGGITWPNRNDSNATRTTCMedian
NameGraco Illinois.Pentair Nordson AptarGro.Toro  
1M Rtn1.9%2.8%-0.3%3.9%7.9%-4.0%2.4%
3M Rtn-1.5%-3.7%-0.1%7.9%-9.4%-11.1%-2.6%
6M Rtn-0.9%2.7%7.1%12.7%-18.3%-4.8%0.9%
12M Rtn-7.6%-7.2%-1.2%-6.3%-28.3%-15.8%-7.4%
3Y Rtn22.7%16.8%136.8%2.3%17.3%-33.2%17.0%
1M Excs Rtn1.9%2.9%-0.3%3.9%7.9%-4.0%2.4%
3M Excs Rtn-8.7%-10.6%-8.4%0.2%-16.9%-16.5%-9.7%
6M Excs Rtn-15.6%-12.0%-7.6%-2.0%-33.0%-19.5%-13.8%
12M Excs Rtn-21.2%-21.2%-14.9%-20.8%-42.1%-30.1%-21.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-47.2%-53.9%75.3%-65.9%-50.4%-104.3%-52.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Unallocated corporate815543805514321
Contractor712753600438369
Industrial640578602632615
Process555565436404387
Total2,7222,4392,4431,9881,692


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,626,375
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120257.7%
Average Daily Volume850,745
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.44
Basic Shares Quantity165,733,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251022202510-Q 9/26/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/27/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/28/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/27/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/27/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/28/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/29/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/29/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/29/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/30/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 7/1/2022
3312022427202210-Q 4/1/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021