Graham (GHM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $57.395 | Market Cap: $630.5 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Graham (GHM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $57.395Market Cap: $630.5 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 36x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 46x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.7% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 77% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 36x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 46x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.7% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 77% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GHM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results: On November 7, 2025, Graham Corporation reported its second quarter fiscal year 2026 results (corresponding to Q3 calendar year 2025), significantly surpassing analysts' revenue expectations with sales up 23.3% year-over-year to $66.03 million. The company's GAAP profit of $0.31 per share also beat consensus estimates by 10.7%.
2. Record Backlog and Increased Orders in Key Markets: Graham achieved a record backlog of approximately $500 million, demonstrating robust demand. This was significantly bolstered by securing multiple new orders, totaling about $22 million, for advanced turbomachinery and precision-engineered components from leading commercial space customers, announced on November 7, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GHM Return | -28% | -16% | -23% | 97% | 134% | 27% | 175% |
| Peers Return | 36% | 16% | -11% | 18% | 0% | 10% | 83% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GHM Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 62% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GHM Max Drawdown | -50% | -21% | -47% | -4% | -2% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -8% | -34% | -10% | -7% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XYL, GGG, ADVEN, BENN, HRDG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GHM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 158.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 382 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1370 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1679 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 621.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5994 days | 1480 days |
Compare to XYL, GGG, ADVEN, BENN, HRDG
In The Past
Graham's stock fell -61.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -61.4% loss requires a 158.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Graham Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GHM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Graham
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 82.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,192 |
| Op Inc LTM | 582 |
| FCF LTM | 625 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 496 |
| CFO LTM | 672 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 622 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.8 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | 29.4 |
| P/E | 37.9 |
| P/CFO | 28.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -39.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 6092025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 6072024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 6082023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2062023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8012022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 6092022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Gregorio Mauro | 9152025 | Buy | 49.01 | 1,200 | 58,812 | 58,812 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |