Rayonier (RYN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.25 | Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Timber REITs
Rayonier (RYN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.25Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Timber REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 25%, Dividend Yield is 5.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% | |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 25%, Dividend Yield is 5.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 21% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RYN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining factors that could have influenced Rayonier (RYN) stock movement around the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Deteriorating Investor Sentiment and Stock Drop in April 2025: Investor sentiment for Rayonier significantly deteriorated on April 8, 2025, causing the stock to fall by 16%. This substantial drop indicates a negative market reaction to underlying company or sector-specific news around that time.
2. Overall Weakness in the Timberland REIT Sector: The broader timberland REIT sector experienced headwinds, with returns down 17.5% year-to-date as of November 17, 2025. This indicates challenging market conditions for the industry, driven by factors such as a slow U.S. housing market and uncertain tariff dynamics, which would naturally affect Rayonier as a major player.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RYN Return | -6% | 42% | -16% | 6% | -18% | -10% | -13% |
| Peers Return | -10% | 35% | -20% | 3% | 4% | -6% | -2% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RYN Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 43% | 45% | 55% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RYN Max Drawdown | -43% | -1% | -25% | -22% | -18% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -5% | -30% | -20% | -12% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: O, FRT, HIW, WY, RYN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RYN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 328 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 822 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 410 days | 1480 days |
Compare to O, FRT, HIW, WY, RYN
In The Past
Rayonier's stock fell -44.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -44.7% loss requires a 80.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RYN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Rayonier
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.15 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,293 |
| Op Inc LTM | 451 |
| FCF LTM | 336 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 384 |
| CFO LTM | 597 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 572 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 44.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 46.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| P/EBIT | 16.2 |
| P/E | 27.1 |
| P/CFO | 14.6 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 1.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -69.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 390 | 138 | 190 | 229 | 75 |
| Southern Timber | 264 | 264 | 204 | 192 | 194 |
| New Zealand Timber | 235 | 274 | 281 | 202 | 242 |
| Pacific Northwest Timber | 124 | 162 | 143 | 121 | 85 |
| Trading | 44 | 71 | 95 | 89 | 115 |
| Corporate and other | -0 | ||||
| Intersegment Eliminations | -0 | -4 | -4 | -0 | |
| Timber Funds | 0 | 199 | 30 | ||
| Total | 1,057 | 909 | 1,110 | 859 | 712 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 157 | 58 | 113 | 72 | 39 |
| Southern Timber | 76 | 97 | 66 | 41 | 58 |
| New Zealand Timber | 26 | 31 | 52 | 30 | 48 |
| Trading | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0 | 0 |
| Pacific Northwest Timber | -9 | 15 | 7 | -10 | -12 |
| Corporate and other | -39 | -35 | -31 | -45 | -25 |
| Timber Funds | 0 | 63 | -13 | ||
| Total | 211 | 166 | 270 | 74 | 107 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |