Riskified (RSKD)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $4.71 | Market Cap: $749.4 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Riskified (RSKD)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $4.71Market Cap: $749.4 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -42% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.6% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -42% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -14% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.6% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
RSKD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between July 31, 2025, and November 18, 2025, Riskified (RSKD) stock experienced a decline of 7.3%. This movement can be attributed to several key factors during this period:
1. Q2 2025 Earnings Miss and Initial Stock Decline: Riskified reported its Q2 2025 earnings around August 18, 2025, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.07, missing the consensus estimate of $0.02. This news led to a notable pre-market trading decline of 7.03% for RSKD shares, reaching $4.89 on August 18, 2025, marking a significant negative reaction early in the specified timeframe.
2. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Performance: While Riskified reported record revenue of $81.9 million for Q3 2025, exceeding analyst expectations, there was conflicting information regarding its EPS. Some reports indicated an EPS miss of -$0.04 against a consensus forecast of $0.03, which could have fueled investor caution. Conversely, other sources stated an EPS of $0.04, beating the consensus. Despite overall positive metrics such as a 4% year-over-year revenue increase and positive adjusted EBITDA, the stock still experienced downward trading on days following the Q3 report.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RSKD Return | - | - | -41% | 1% | 1% | 0% | -40% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -2% | -7% | 6% | 52% | -27% | 23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RSKD Win Rate | - | 20% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 10% | 5% | 21% | 33% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RSKD Max Drawdown | - | - | -52% | -21% | -8% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -4% | -8% | -1% | -4% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BIYA, BLIV, BMR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RSKD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 917.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to ADSK, HIT, BIYA, BLIV, BMR
In The Past
Riskified's stock fell -90.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/3/2021. A -90.2% loss requires a 917.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RSKD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -13.6% | -13.6% | -13.6% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.5% | -3.5% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.0% | -4.0% | -4.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -13.6% | -13.6% | -13.6% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.5% | -3.5% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.0% | -4.0% | -4.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Riskified
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 2.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 336 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1 |
| FCF LTM | 33 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 859 |
| CFO LTM | 34 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 896 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/EBIT | 41.1 |
| P/E | 59.6 |
| P/CFO | 22.6 |
| Total Yield | 1.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -14.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -19.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -14.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 15.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -22.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -60.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8182025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3062024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11152023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8152023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5172023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5172022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11162021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |