Riley Exploration Permian (REPX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.73 | Market Cap: $586.9 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Riley Exploration Permian (REPX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.73Market Cap: $586.9 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, Dividend Yield is 5.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%, FCF Yield is 18% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 39% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and US LNG. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, Dividend Yield is 5.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%, FCF Yield is 18% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 39% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and US LNG. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
REPX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Based on the approximate time period leading up to December 4, 2025, several factors could contribute to a negative stock movement for Riley Exploration Permian (REPX). While a precise -4.6% daily movement during this specific timeframe is not clearly identifiable from the provided information, the following key points represent potential influences on the company's stock performance:
1. Oil Price Volatility and Oversupply Concerns. The broader oil market in late 2025 has shown signs of softening prices, with concerns about global oversupply and WTI prices experiencing a notable decline, impacting the profitability and outlook for exploration and production companies like Riley Exploration Permian.
2. Mixed Natural Gas Market Conditions. Although natural gas futures experienced significant surges in early December 2025 due to colder forecasts and increased demand, the overall natural gas market in 2025 has seen more modest demand growth and regional price volatility, which could create headwinds for companies with natural gas exposure.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| REPX Return | 153% | 35% | 60% | -4% | 24% | -10% | 483% |
| Peers Return | -39% | 91% | 65% | 8% | -3% | -3% | 93% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| REPX Win Rate | 83% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 70% | 58% | 57% | 48% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| REPX Max Drawdown | -12% | -2% | -13% | -14% | -20% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -73% | -1% | 0% | -14% | -12% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG, OXY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | REPX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 275.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -69.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 230.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 395 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 647.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG, OXY
In The Past
Riley Exploration Permian's stock fell -73.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/10/2021. A -73.4% loss requires a 275.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to REPX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Riley Exploration Permian
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 67.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 53.0 |
| Rev LTM | 24,864 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,562 |
| FCF LTM | 4,334 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,456 |
| CFO LTM | 11,170 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,909 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 44.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 46.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 53.0 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 7.8 |
| P/E | 10.5 |
| P/CFO | 4.6 |
| Total Yield | 12.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -11.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -3.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -76.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3052025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3082023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2142022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |