Orchid Island Capital (ORC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.34 | Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Orchid Island Capital (ORC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.34Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 22%, Dividend Yield is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 18%, FCF Yield is 9.4% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -61% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 112%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 112% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Financial Innovation & Structured Products. Themes include Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Investment, Interest Rate Risk Management, and Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (mREITs). |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 22%, Dividend Yield is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 18%, FCF Yield is 9.4% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -61% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 112%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 112% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Financial Innovation & Structured Products. Themes include Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Investment, Interest Rate Risk Management, and Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (mREITs). |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ORC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the positive movement in Orchid Island Capital (ORC) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Orchid Island Capital announced robust third-quarter 2025 financial results that significantly exceeded analyst expectations. The company reported a net income of $72.1 million, or $0.53 per common share, which was substantially higher than analyst forecasts of $0.22 per share. This strong performance signals a significant turnaround from previous periods.
2. The company demonstrated an increase in its book value and achieved a strong total return for the third quarter. Orchid Island Capital's book value per common share rose to $7.33 as of September 30, 2025, up from $7.21 at the end of the second quarter. The company also reported an unannualized total return of 6.7% for the third quarter of 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORC Return | 5% | 0% | -42% | -3% | 10% | 11% | -28% |
| Peers Return | -14% | 10% | -19% | 2% | 6% | 2% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORC Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 57% | 50% | 45% | 55% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORC Max Drawdown | -67% | -6% | -57% | -34% | -5% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -64% | -6% | -34% | -22% | -11% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -80.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 410.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -71.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 255.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -58.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY
In The Past
Orchid Island Capital's stock fell -80.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/13/2021. A -80.4% loss requires a 410.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ORC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Orchid Island Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 76 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 140 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 133 |
| CFO LTM | 140 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 133 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 103.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 143.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 51.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 139.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 434.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 113.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 434.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | 11.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 11.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |