Tearsheet

NAPCO Security Technologies (NSSC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $40.565 | Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Alarm Services

NAPCO Security Technologies (NSSC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $40.565
Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Security & Alarm Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -8.5%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.2x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 32x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 79%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Cloud Computing, and Cybersecurity. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Cloud Computing, and Cybersecurity. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -8.5%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.2x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 32x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 79%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NSSC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat.

NAPCO Security Technologies reported robust fiscal first-quarter 2026 results on November 3, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced earnings per share (EPS) of $0.34, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.30. Revenue reached $49.17 million, an 11.8% increase year-over-year, also beating analyst estimates of $46.81 million. 2. Strong Growth in Recurring Service Revenue (RSR).

A significant driver for NSSC's stock performance was the continued strong growth in its high-margin recurring service revenue (RSR). For Q1 2026, RSR grew 11% year-over-year to $23.5 million, maintaining an impressive gross margin of 90.3%. Management highlighted that the prospective annual run rate for recurring communication revenue is nearing $95 million, based on October 2025 figures, and approaching $100 million annually.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NSSC Return-11%91%10%26%5%14%180%
Peers Return-7%24%-10%24%21%8%68%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NSSC Win Rate58%58%50%58%58%70% 
Peers Win Rate50%57%47%65%47%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NSSC Max Drawdown-53%-1%-37%-33%-6%-44% 
Peers Max Drawdown-52%-10%-29%-17%-9%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BCO, MG, CIX, NL, ADT. See NSSC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNSSCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven119.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven97 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven138.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven327 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven222 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-88.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven762.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1785 days1480 days

Compare to BCO, MG, CIX, NL, ADT


In The Past

NAPCO Security Technologies's stock fell -54.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/12/2023. A -54.3% loss requires a 119.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NAPCO Security Technologies (NSSC)

Better Bets than NAPCO Security Technologies (NSSC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NSSC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
NSSC_8312024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312024NSSCNAPCO Security TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-46.7%-16.6%-56.8%
NSSC_12312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312023NSSCNAPCO Security TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
52.3%4.4%-5.5%
NSSC_4302023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302023NSSCNAPCO Security TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-37.9%40.5%-40.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
NSSC_8312024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312024NSSCNAPCO Security TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-46.7%-16.6%-56.8%
NSSC_12312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312023NSSCNAPCO Security TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
52.3%4.4%-5.5%
NSSC_4302023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302023NSSCNAPCO Security TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-37.9%40.5%-40.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NAPCO Security Technologies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NSSCBCOMGCIXNLADTMedian
NameNAPCO Se.Brink's MISTRAS Compx In.NL Indus.ADT  
Mkt Price41.02118.3011.8222.315.588.1417.06
Mkt Cap1.55.00.40.30.36.70.9
Rev LTM1875,1467151591595,113451
Op Inc LTM485064722401,30648
FCF LTM52418-015-271,38733
FCF 3Y Avg44347721131,16332
CFO LTM536362718-231,97040
CFO 3Y Avg465583123151,87338

Growth & Margins

NSSCBCOMGCIXNLADTMedian
NameNAPCO Se.Brink's MISTRAS Compx In.NL Indus.ADT  
Rev Chg LTM-2.3%3.1%-3.2%5.5%5.5%6.3%4.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.3%5.1%1.3%-0.3%-0.3%3.4%2.3%
Rev Chg Q11.7%6.1%7.0%18.7%18.7%4.4%9.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.8%1.5%1.8%4.1%4.1%1.1%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM25.7%9.8%6.6%13.7%25.1%25.5%19.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg25.4%9.9%5.1%13.9%12.1%26.1%13.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%0.5%1.2%0.4%-0.4%-0.5%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM28.4%12.4%3.7%11.4%-14.6%38.5%11.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg24.9%11.2%4.3%14.7%9.8%40.1%12.9%
FCF/Rev LTM27.6%8.1%-0.0%9.3%-16.8%27.1%8.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg23.7%7.0%1.0%13.3%8.4%24.7%10.9%

Valuation

NSSCBCOMGCIXNLADTMedian
NameNAPCO Se.Brink's MISTRAS Compx In.NL Indus.ADT  
Mkt Cap1.55.00.40.30.36.70.9
P/S8.21.00.41.81.91.41.6
P/EBIT31.99.28.113.219.65.611.2
P/E34.528.817.114.931.011.123.0
P/CFO28.87.711.715.9-12.93.69.7
Total Yield4.1%3.5%5.8%8.0%12.3%11.7%6.9%
Dividend Yield1.2%0.0%0.0%1.3%9.1%2.7%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.5%8.2%2.7%7.1%4.5%18.2%5.8%
D/E0.00.90.80.00.01.10.4
Net D/E-0.10.60.7-0.2-0.31.10.3

Returns

NSSCBCOMGCIXNLADTMedian
NameNAPCO Se.Brink's MISTRAS Compx In.NL Indus.ADT  
1M Rtn0.6%7.0%23.3%2.7%-3.8%-7.4%1.7%
3M Rtn3.5%5.3%24.9%-4.6%-11.3%-5.5%-0.6%
6M Rtn44.7%42.7%54.7%0.4%-12.9%-4.1%21.6%
12M Rtn4.2%25.9%30.6%-12.2%-25.6%11.3%7.7%
3Y Rtn58.8%106.2%203.1%51.9%2.1%-9.8%55.4%
1M Excs Rtn0.7%7.0%23.3%2.8%-3.8%-7.4%1.7%
3M Excs Rtn-0.5%-1.1%15.4%-10.8%-18.7%-13.1%-5.9%
6M Excs Rtn30.0%28.0%40.0%-14.3%-27.6%-18.8%6.8%
12M Excs Rtn-7.2%10.1%13.4%-25.7%-36.8%-3.7%-5.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-8.5%32.4%124.2%-24.9%-72.4%-76.1%-16.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Services7660463424
Door locking devices7463484346
Intrusion and access alarm products3947503731
Total189170144114101


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,525,983
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120250.3%
Average Daily Volume360,349
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.01
Basic Shares Quantity35,658,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025825202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024203202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024829202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023205202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023908202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022206202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022829202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022517202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021209202210-Q 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Spinelli Stephen MSenior Vice president of Sales11182025Sell40.2519,000764,75037,352Form