Tearsheet

NAPCO Security Technologies (NSSC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $43.03 | Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Alarm Services

NAPCO Security Technologies (NSSC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $43.03
Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Security & Alarm Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.8%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.2x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -9.0%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 79%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Cloud Computing, and Cybersecurity. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Show more.
  Key risks
NSSC key risks include [1] an ongoing securities class action lawsuit and investigation stemming from financial misstatements and weak internal controls, Show more.
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Cloud Computing, and Cybersecurity. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.8%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -9.0%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.2x
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 79%
9 Key risks
NSSC key risks include [1] an ongoing securities class action lawsuit and investigation stemming from financial misstatements and weak internal controls, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NSSC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings Beat. NAPCO Security Technologies reported diluted earnings per share of $0.33, exceeding analyst estimates of $0.28, and revenue of $50.7 million, surpassing the $44.66 million estimate for its fourth fiscal quarter, announced on August 25, 2025. This strong financial performance led to a significant positive movement in the stock.

2. Consistent Growth in Recurring Service Revenue (RSR). The company demonstrated continued double-digit growth in its high-margin Recurring Service Revenue. In Q4 Fiscal 2025, RSR increased by 10% to $22.4 million with a 91% gross margin. This positive trend extended into Q1 Fiscal 2026, reported on November 3, 2025, where RSR continued its year-over-year growth, representing 48% of total revenue and maintaining gross margins above 90%, with a prospective annual run rate of $95 million.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NSSC Return-11%91%10%26%5%21%199%
Peers Return47%6%-18%13%5%17%76%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NSSC Win Rate58%58%50%58%58%67% 
Peers Win Rate63%52%40%47%43%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NSSC Max Drawdown-53%-1%-37%-33%-6%-44% 
Peers Max Drawdown-42%-11%-34%-17%-11%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ALLE, ALRM, ADT, REZI, MSA. See NSSC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNSSCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven119.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven97 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven138.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven327 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven222 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-88.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven762.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,785 days1,480 days

Compare to BCO, MG, CIX, NL, ADT


In The Past

NAPCO Security Technologies's stock fell -54.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/12/2023. A -54.3% loss requires a 119.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NAPCO Security Technologies (NSSC)

Better Bets than NAPCO Security Technologies (NSSC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NSSC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
NSSC_8312024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312024NSSCNAPCO Security TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-46.7%-16.6%-56.8%
NSSC_12312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312023NSSCNAPCO Security TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
52.3%4.4%-5.5%
NSSC_4302023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302023NSSCNAPCO Security TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-37.9%40.5%-40.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
NSSC_8312024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312024NSSCNAPCO Security TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-46.7%-16.6%-56.8%
NSSC_12312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312023NSSCNAPCO Security TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
52.3%4.4%-5.5%
NSSC_4302023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302023NSSCNAPCO Security TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-37.9%40.5%-40.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NAPCO Security Technologies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NSSCALLEALRMADTREZIMSAMedian
NameNAPCO Se.Allegion Alarm.comADT Resideo .MSA Safe. 
Mkt Price43.01160.7152.478.1534.57158.4847.74
Mkt Cap1.513.82.66.75.26.25.7
Rev LTM1873,9809925,1137,4351,8642,922
Op Inc LTM488341301,306625391508
FCF LTM526801531,387-1,334283218
FCF 3Y Avg445851501,163-243173162
CFO LTM537631741,970-1,233349262
CFO 3Y Avg466711651,873-138228196

Growth & Margins

NSSCALLEALRMADTREZIMSAMedian
NameNAPCO Se.Allegion Alarm.comADT Resideo .MSA Safe. 
Rev Chg LTM-2.3%6.9%7.4%6.3%15.5%3.3%6.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.3%8.6%6.1%3.4%6.1%7.8%6.7%
Rev Chg Q11.7%10.7%6.6%4.4%2.0%8.3%7.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.8%2.7%1.6%1.1%0.5%2.0%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM25.7%21.0%13.1%25.5%8.4%21.0%21.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg25.4%20.4%10.2%26.1%8.8%21.3%20.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%-0.1%0.2%-0.5%-0.0%-0.3%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM28.4%19.2%17.5%38.5%-16.6%18.7%19.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg24.9%17.7%17.7%40.1%-1.2%12.4%17.7%
FCF/Rev LTM27.6%17.1%15.4%27.1%-17.9%15.2%16.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg23.7%15.4%16.2%24.7%-2.8%9.4%15.8%

Valuation

NSSCALLEALRMADTREZIMSAMedian
NameNAPCO Se.Allegion Alarm.comADT Resideo .MSA Safe. 
Mkt Cap1.513.82.66.75.26.25.7
P/S8.23.82.71.40.93.63.1
P/EBIT31.918.014.95.6-14.116.815.8
P/E34.523.820.711.1-10.124.122.2
P/CFO28.820.015.33.6-5.219.317.3
Total Yield4.1%5.3%4.8%11.7%-9.9%4.5%4.6%
Dividend Yield1.2%1.1%0.0%2.7%0.0%0.3%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.5%4.8%5.4%18.2%0.5%2.5%4.2%
D/E0.00.10.41.10.50.10.3
Net D/E-0.10.10.01.10.40.10.1

Returns

NSSCALLEALRMADTREZIMSAMedian
NameNAPCO Se.Allegion Alarm.comADT Resideo .MSA Safe. 
1M Rtn7.3%0.8%8.8%2.2%14.8%1.9%4.7%
3M Rtn1.8%-8.7%-5.0%-4.7%-12.8%-5.9%-5.4%
6M Rtn52.5%18.2%-6.8%1.5%64.9%-3.4%9.8%
12M Rtn17.6%19.3%-22.7%18.1%35.8%-5.0%17.9%
3Y Rtn65.2%61.8%4.4%-3.3%108.9%26.5%44.1%
1M Excs Rtn6.6%0.0%8.1%1.5%14.0%1.1%4.0%
3M Excs Rtn1.4%-11.2%-7.0%-6.5%-17.8%-8.1%-7.6%
6M Excs Rtn40.1%5.8%-19.2%-10.9%52.6%-15.8%-2.6%
12M Excs Rtn7.1%6.7%-32.9%5.2%20.9%-19.0%6.0%
3Y Excs Rtn0.6%-15.5%-66.5%-78.1%41.7%-46.1%-30.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Services7660463424
Door locking devices7463484346
Intrusion and access alarm products3947503731
Total189170144114101


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,184,772
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-13.5%
Average Daily Volume310,155
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.04
Basic Shares Quantity35,658,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/2025-7.7%-4.6%-7.1%
8/25/20256.1%20.0%36.6%
5/5/20253.7%10.9%20.4%
2/3/2025-26.6%-29.9%-35.0%
11/4/2024-10.6%0.2%3.8%
8/26/2024-14.6%-16.4%-25.1%
5/6/20241.0%-1.9%14.6%
2/5/202418.8%25.7%23.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121315
# Negative986
Median Positive3.8%4.6%14.6%
Median Negative-7.7%-3.8%-17.6%
Max Positive23.6%25.7%39.8%
Max Negative-45.0%-40.9%-40.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025825202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024203202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024829202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023205202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023908202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022206202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022829202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022517202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021209202210-Q 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Spinelli Stephen MSenior Vice president of Sales11182025Sell40.2519,000764,75037,352Form