NAPCO Security Technologies (NSSC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $40.565 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Alarm Services
NAPCO Security Technologies (NSSC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $40.565Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Security & Alarm Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -8.5% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.2x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 32x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 79% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Cloud Computing, and Cybersecurity. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Cloud Computing, and Cybersecurity. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -8.5% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.2x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 32x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 79% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NSSC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat.
NAPCO Security Technologies reported robust fiscal first-quarter 2026 results on November 3, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced earnings per share (EPS) of $0.34, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.30. Revenue reached $49.17 million, an 11.8% increase year-over-year, also beating analyst estimates of $46.81 million.
2. Strong Growth in Recurring Service Revenue (RSR).
A significant driver for NSSC's stock performance was the continued strong growth in its high-margin recurring service revenue (RSR). For Q1 2026, RSR grew 11% year-over-year to $23.5 million, maintaining an impressive gross margin of 90.3%. Management highlighted that the prospective annual run rate for recurring communication revenue is nearing $95 million, based on October 2025 figures, and approaching $100 million annually.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NSSC Return | -11% | 91% | 10% | 26% | 5% | 14% | 180% |
| Peers Return | -7% | 24% | -10% | 24% | 21% | 8% | 68% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NSSC Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 57% | 47% | 65% | 47% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NSSC Max Drawdown | -53% | -1% | -37% | -33% | -6% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -10% | -29% | -17% | -9% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BCO, MG, CIX, NL, ADT. See NSSC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NSSC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 327 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 222 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 762.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1785 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BCO, MG, CIX, NL, ADT
In The Past
NAPCO Security Technologies's stock fell -54.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/12/2023. A -54.3% loss requires a 119.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NSSC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 08312024 | NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -46.7% | -16.6% | -56.8% |
| 12312023 | NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 52.3% | 4.4% | -5.5% |
| 04302023 | NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -37.9% | 40.5% | -40.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 08312024 | NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -46.7% | -16.6% | -56.8% |
| 12312023 | NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 52.3% | 4.4% | -5.5% |
| 04302023 | NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -37.9% | 40.5% | -40.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NAPCO Security Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 451 |
| Op Inc LTM | 48 |
| FCF LTM | 33 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 32 |
| CFO LTM | 40 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 38 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 11.2 |
| P/E | 23.0 |
| P/CFO | 9.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 55.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8252025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2032025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8292024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9082023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2062023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8292022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5172022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spinelli Stephen M | Senior Vice president of Sales | 11182025 | Sell | 40.25 | 19,000 | 764,750 | 37,352 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |