Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 18%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 45%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, Offshore Wind Development, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 18%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 45%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, Offshore Wind Development, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NOV Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is a recent past period. I have found several key events that could influence NOV's stock price during this time. Here are the key points for why NOV's stock may have moved by 23.5% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:

1. NOV's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: NOV announced its Q3 2025 earnings on October 27, 2025, with a conference call on October 28, 2025. The company reported an EPS of $0.11, missing the consensus estimate of $0.24, and revenue for the quarter was down 0.7% compared to the same quarter last year. However, despite missing EPS estimates, the stock's movement could also be influenced by forward-looking statements or specific segments' performance within the report that might have been received positively by investors.

2. CEO Retirement and New Appointment: On November 19, 2025, NOV announced the retirement of its long-standing CEO, Clay Williams, and the appointment of Jose Bayardo as the new CEO, effective January 1, 2026. This leadership transition could be viewed favorably by investors, signaling fresh strategic direction or improved operational efficiency, potentially contributing to a stock increase.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NOV Return-45%-1%56%-2%-27%9%-34%
Peers Return-19%6%33%15%20%12%76%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NOV Win Rate33%42%58%42%42%80% 
Peers Win Rate27%32%38%32%37%36% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NOV Max Drawdown-68%-15%0%-32%-30%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-43%-10%-5%-10%-8%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FTI, WHD, HMH, WBI, BKR. See NOV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNOVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-43.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-68.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven218.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-62.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven166.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven412.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to FTI, WHD, HMH, WBI, BKR


In The Past

NOV's stock fell -43.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/26/2023. A -43.3% loss requires a 76.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NOV (NOV)

Better Bets than NOV (NOV)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NOV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NOV

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NOVFTIWHDHMHWBIBKRMedian
NameNOV TechnipF.Cactus HMH WaterBri.Baker Hu. 
Mkt Price16.3246.6745.90-22.4450.4945.90
Mkt Cap6.019.13.2--49.812.6
Rev LTM8,7759,7831,090844-27,7118,775
Op Inc LTM6091,292261108-3,535609
FCF LTM8771,54120818-2,089877
FCF 3Y Avg435913253--1,924674
CFO LTM1,2691,89025335-3,3381,269
CFO 3Y Avg7601,177294--3,147968

Growth & Margins

NOVFTIWHDHMHWBIBKRMedian
NameNOV TechnipF.Cactus HMH WaterBri.Baker Hu. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.5%11.2%-3.8%3.9%-1.5%1.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.0%14.5%22.9%--10.4%12.4%
Rev Chg Q-0.7%12.7%-10.0%-1.9%-1.5%-0.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.2%3.2%-2.6%-0.5%-0.4%-0.2%
Op Mgn LTM6.9%13.2%24.0%12.8%-12.8%12.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.0%9.7%25.4%--11.6%10.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%0.8%-0.8%-0.8%-0.0%-0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM14.5%19.3%23.2%4.1%-12.0%14.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.6%13.0%27.3%--11.9%12.5%
FCF/Rev LTM10.0%15.8%19.1%2.1%-7.5%10.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.8%10.0%23.5%--7.3%8.6%

Valuation

NOVFTIWHDHMHWBIBKRMedian
NameNOV TechnipF.Cactus HMH WaterBri.Baker Hu. 
Mkt Cap6.019.13.2--49.812.6
P/S0.61.72.5--1.71.7
P/EBIT8.212.510.6--14.311.5
P/E12.817.115.7--16.616.1
P/CFO3.98.510.7--14.49.6
Total Yield11.7%6.4%7.7%--7.9%7.8%
Dividend Yield3.9%0.5%1.4%--1.9%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.7%7.0%7.6%--4.9%7.3%
D/E0.50.10.0--0.10.1
Net D/E0.20.0-0.1--0.10.0

Returns

NOVFTIWHDHMHWBIBKRMedian
NameNOV TechnipF.Cactus HMH WaterBri.Baker Hu. 
1M Rtn8.4%11.0%3.8%--8.9%3.8%3.8%
3M Rtn26.4%22.2%14.0%--12.7%18.1%
6M Rtn34.7%48.1%3.9%--36.8%35.7%
12M Rtn4.9%49.0%-30.6%--18.1%11.5%
3Y Rtn-22.8%268.9%-13.3%--83.7%35.2%
1M Excs Rtn8.5%11.0%3.8%--8.8%3.8%3.8%
3M Excs Rtn17.5%12.5%0.9%--4.2%8.3%
6M Excs Rtn20.0%33.4%-10.9%--22.0%21.0%
12M Excs Rtn-7.6%36.1%-45.7%--3.8%-1.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-92.9%220.8%-79.6%--19.5%-30.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Energy Equipment4,669    
Energy Products and Services4,077    
Eliminations-163    
Completion & Production Solutions 2,5881,9632,4332,771
Eliminations and corporate costs -162-137-129-188
Rig Technologies 2,0341,7391,9192,682
Wellbore Technologies 2,7771,9591,8673,214
Total8,5837,2375,5246,0908,479


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Energy Products and Services507    
Energy Equipment371    
Eliminations-227    
Completion & Production Solutions 69-65-977-1,934
Eliminations and corporate costs -253-186-228-270
Rig Technologies 14443-362-524
Wellbore Technologies 30474-858-3,551
Total651264-134-2,425-6,279


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Energy Equipment5,509    
Energy Products and Services4,777    
Eliminations1,008    
Completion & Production Solutions 2,7482,4652,4723,826
Eliminations and corporate costs 1,3211,7941,8691,487
Rig Technologies 3,0742,6212,9233,758
Wellbore Technologies 2,9922,6702,6654,078
Total11,29410,1359,5509,92913,149


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity24,058,388
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-10.3%
Average Daily Volume5,387,614
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.47
Basic Shares Quantity370,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024729202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021