Live Oak Bancshares (LOB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.28 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Live Oak Bancshares (LOB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.28Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -94% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 131%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 128% | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 11% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 49% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | ||
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 18% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -94% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 131%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 128% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 49% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LOB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) stock moved by -13.8% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Lower than Expected Q3 2025 Financial Results.
Live Oak Bancshares reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.55, which missed the forecasted $0.6011 by 8.5%. Additionally, the company's revenue of $146.1 million fell short of the anticipated $148.1 million.
2. Immediate Negative Market Reaction to Earnings.
Following the announcement of its Q3 2025 financial results, Live Oak Bancshares' stock experienced a 3.62% drop in after-hours trading.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LOB Return | 151% | 84% | -65% | 51% | -13% | -18% | 73% |
| Peers Return | -8% | 5% | -20% | 26% | 16% | 26% | 44% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LOB Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 18% | 25% | 25% | 33% | 33% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LOB Max Drawdown | -57% | -16% | -67% | -34% | -30% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -3% | -25% | -12% | -3% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: C, USB, AVBC, LSBK, NU. See LOB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LOB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -79.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 387.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -59.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 144.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 630 days | 120 days |
Compare to C, USB, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
Live Oak Bancshares's stock fell -79.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -79.5% loss requires a 387.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LOB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 01312024 | LOB | Live Oak Bancshares | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 24.3% | -2.3% | -12.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 01312024 | LOB | Live Oak Bancshares | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 24.3% | -2.3% | -12.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Live Oak Bancshares
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 81.7 |
| Rev LTM | 4,742 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 332 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 467 |
| CFO LTM | 340 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 505 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 81.7 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 18.4 |
| P/CFO | 4.8 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | -1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 31.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 25.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 90.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 20.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11032021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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