Key Tronic (KTCC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $2.43 | Market Cap: $26.2 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Key Tronic (KTCC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $2.43Market Cap: $26.2 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 37% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.5 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 458% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -25% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -49% | ||
| Key risksKTCC key risks include [1] material weaknesses in internal controls requiring financial restatements and [2] significant customer concentration without the security of long-term contracts. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.5 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.0% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 458% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -25% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -49% |
| Key risksKTCC key risks include [1] material weaknesses in internal controls requiring financial restatements and [2] significant customer concentration without the security of long-term contracts. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KTCC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Key Tronic (KTCC) experienced a stock decline of 16.5% between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, primarily influenced by several key factors related to its financial performance and market conditions during this period.
1. Significant Revenue Decline in Q1 Fiscal Year 2026: The company reported a substantial decrease in total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (ended September 27, 2025), with revenue falling to $98.8 million from $131.6 million in the same period of fiscal year 2025, a 24.9% year-over-year decrease. This decline was attributed to reductions in demand from a long-standing customer and delays in new program launches.
2. Shift from Net Income to Net Loss: Key Tronic moved from a net income of $1.1 million (or $0.10 per share) in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 to a net loss of $2.3 million (or $0.21 per share) in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. The adjusted net loss also widened significantly.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KTCC Return | 27% | -9% | -31% | -0% | -3% | -41% | -55% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KTCC Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 25% | 58% | 33% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KTCC Max Drawdown | -52% | -13% | -35% | -12% | -14% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BGIN, VELO, AAPL, DELL, STX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KTCC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 365 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -84.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 545.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 344 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to BGIN, VELO, AAPL, DELL, STX
In The Past
Key Tronic's stock fell -58.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/28/2021. A -58.9% loss requires a 143.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Key Tronic Earnings Notes | ||
| Is Key Tronic Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KTCC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Key Tronic
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 68.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.7 |
| Rev LTM | 9,097 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,915 |
| FCF LTM | 818 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 703 |
| CFO LTM | 1,083 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 981 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.7 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 27.7 |
| P/E | 18.3 |
| P/CFO | 13.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 176.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 85.9% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2025 | -4.4% | -3.7% | 17.1% |
| 5/6/2025 | -4.9% | -2.1% | 18.1% |
| 1/24/2025 | -7.7% | -12.9% | -25.7% |
| 11/5/2024 | -5.0% | -2.0% | -9.6% |
| 8/2/2024 | 6.5% | 1.8% | 19.1% |
| 4/26/2024 | -6.1% | -5.0% | -7.2% |
| 2/6/2024 | 3.6% | 5.0% | 7.9% |
| 10/24/2023 | -3.8% | -8.4% | -9.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 6.5% | 5.4% | 12.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -7.8% | -9.1% |
| Max Positive | 27.1% | 17.4% | 19.1% |
| Max Negative | -15.0% | -20.3% | -25.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 9172025 | 10-K 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 10152024 | 10-K 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9262023 | 10-K 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 9142022 | 10-K 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2102022 | 10-Q 1/1/2022 |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |