Velo3D (VELO)
Market Price (2/4/2026): $15.3 | Market Cap: $17.5 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Velo3D (VELO)
Market Price (2/4/2026): $15.3Market Cap: $17.5 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -56 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -114% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Automation & Robotics, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 118% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 162%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 162% | |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -45% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 442% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -420% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 210% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 183% | |
| Key risksVELO key risks include [1] severe liquidity constraints raising substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Automation & Robotics, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -56 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -114% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 118% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 162%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 162% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -45% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 442% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -420% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 210% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 183% |
| Key risksVELO key risks include [1] severe liquidity constraints raising substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Velo3D secured significant defense contracts and strategic partnerships, particularly within the U.S. defense sector. The company announced a $32.6 million contract with the U.S. Department of War's Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) on December 22, 2025, aimed at resolving manufacturing bottlenecks for a critical weapon system, which was followed by a substantial stock price increase. Additionally, Velo3D entered into a Cooperative Research & Development Agreement (CRADA) with the U.S. Army DEVCOM Ground Vehicle Systems Center on January 13, 2026, to develop additively manufactured parts for ground combat vehicles. These developments underscored the company's critical role in national defense industrial resilience and its Rapid Production Services (RPS) business.
2. A substantial $30 million private placement strengthened Velo3D's financial position and signaled investor confidence. On December 22, 2025, Velo3D announced this private investment in public equity (PIPE) from two institutional investors, including a new fundamental institutional investor committing $20 million. This capital raise, with shares issued at $8.25 each, was intended to fund general corporate purposes and capital expenditures, particularly to support growing demand in the space and defense sectors.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 176.0% change in VELO stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 199.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.55 | 15.32 | 176.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 44 | 49 | 12.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.4 | 199.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1 | 1 | -18.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 176.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VELO | 176.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 26.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | -5.5% | 17.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VELO | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 29.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 8.3% | 20.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VELO | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 29.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 23.7% | 20.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VELO | ||
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 29.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 113.3% | 20.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VELO Return | - | - | - | - | 135% | -8% | 115% |
| Peers Return | 4% | -51% | 18% | -17% | 5% | 14% | -40% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 86% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VELO Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 40% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 38% | 50% | 40% | 50% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VELO Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -49% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -56% | -34% | -57% | -35% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DDD, SSYS, PRLB, XMTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
VELO has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,183 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DDD, SSYS, PRLB, XMTR
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Velo3D (VELO)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for Velo3D:
- ASML for advanced metal 3D printing
- Stratasys for aerospace-grade metal 3D printing
- The Tesla of industrial metal parts manufacturing
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Sapphire® and Sapphire® XC 3D Printers: Industrial metal additive manufacturing systems designed for producing high-quality, complex parts without traditional design constraints.
- Flowâ„¢ and Assureâ„¢ Software: A proprietary software suite including Flow for print preparation and Assure for in-situ quality monitoring and control.
- Support and Services: Comprehensive technical assistance, training, maintenance, and ongoing support for their metal 3D printing solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Velo3D (symbol: VELO) primarily sells its advanced metal 3D printing solutions, including printers, software, and services, to other companies (B2B). Its major customers are typically found in demanding industries such as aerospace, defense, energy, and high-tech contract manufacturing, where precision, performance, and complex part geometries are critical.
Here are some of Velo3D's major customer companies:
- SpaceX: A leading private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company. SpaceX is a significant user of Velo3D's technology for printing mission-critical components for its rockets and spacecraft, including engines and other high-performance parts.
- Knust-Godwin: A prominent private American contract manufacturer specializing in complex, high-precision components for the aerospace, defense, and energy industries. Knust-Godwin has adopted multiple Velo3D Sapphire systems to expand its advanced manufacturing capabilities for its clients.
- Hanwha Aerospace (KRX: 012450): A major South Korean aerospace and defense company. Hanwha Aerospace has partnered with Velo3D to integrate its advanced metal additive manufacturing technology for various aerospace applications, including developing and producing high-performance components.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Arun Jeldi, CEO
Arun Jeldi became the CEO of Velo3D in December 2024, succeeding Brad Kreger. Jeldi also joined the company's Board of Directors. His background is in the manufacturing sector, and he previously founded Arrayed Additive, a company developing additive manufacturing applications for aluminum and magnesium parts, which he started in 2023. Jeldi also leads Lite Magnesium Products, a magnesium manufacturing firm, which he started investing in 2021, and Crown Magnesium Inc., a magnesium extraction specialist, acquired in 2023. He encountered Velo3D as a customer of Arrayed Additive.
Hull Xu, Chief Financial Officer
Hull Xu was appointed as the Chief Financial Officer of Velo3D in April 2024. He brings over 15 years of corporate finance experience in the technology industry. Prior to joining Velo3D, Xu served as the CFO at Cepton, Inc. His experience also includes roles in capital markets and investment banking at Royal Bank of Canada, Barclays Capital, and GE Capital.
Michelle Sidwell, Chief Revenue Officer
Michelle Sidwell rejoined Velo3D as Chief Revenue Officer in January 2025. She was previously appointed Chief Commercial Officer in April 2024, overseeing sales, marketing, customer service, and business development. With over 20 years of experience in technology sales and leadership, Sidwell was the SVP of Global Enterprise Business at Salesloft prior to rejoining Velo3D. She also spent nearly five years at Yext, where she contributed to the company's revenue growth from $60 million to $300 million during its period as a publicly traded company.
Darren Beckett, Chief Technology Officer
Darren Beckett joined Velo3D as Chief Technology Officer in January 2025. He has over 25 years of experience in technology leadership and innovation, including two decades at Intel Corporation, where he focused on 3D manufacturing and next-generation technology development. Before rejoining Velo3D, Beckett was the VP of Engineering at Woodruff Scientific and the Chief Technology Officer at Sigma Additive Solutions.
Brad Kreger, Chief Operating Officer
Brad Kreger is the Chief Operating Officer and Director at Velo3D. He was appointed interim CEO in December 2023 after Benny Buller stepped down, and then was replaced by Arun Jeldi in December 2024. Kreger was previously the Executive Vice President of Operations at Velo3D since December 2022. His background includes various executive positions in manufacturing operations, where he focused on rapidly scaling at early and mid-stage companies such as Affymetrix, Thermo Fisher Scientific, and Fluidigm Corporation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Velo3D's business are:- Liquidity Constraints and Going Concern Doubt: Velo3D has expressed substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern due to low cash reserves and significant debt. As of June 30, 2025, the company had $0.9 million in cash but $22.5 million in debt, with upcoming obligations exceeding available liquidity. The company requires additional capital in the near term to fund operations and service its debt, and failure to secure financing poses a significant risk to operations and shareholder value.
- Execution Risk and Profitability Challenges: Velo3D is engaged in a high-risk turnaround strategy, transitioning from hardware sales to a recurring, service-driven model. The company faces the challenge of reducing manufacturing inefficiencies, profitably scaling its Rapid Production Solutions (RPS), and restoring gross margins to target levels. Velo3D has a history of inconsistent performance and has reported significant net losses, highlighting ongoing struggles with operational efficiency and cost management.
- Customer Concentration: Velo3D relies heavily on a small number of customers. For the three months ended September 2025, the top three customers accounted for 51% of the company's revenue. While this is an improvement from 82% in the same period in 2024, a sudden delay or cancellation from any of these major clients could significantly impact Velo3D's financial results.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing maturity and commercial viability of metal binder jetting technology represents a clear emerging threat. Companies like Desktop Metal, HP, and GE Additive are heavily investing in and advancing this technology, offering a potentially much faster and more cost-effective method for producing metal parts at scale compared to Velo3D's laser powder bed fusion technology. While Velo3D excels in complex geometries and high-performance applications with its "SupportFree" capabilities, the advancements in binder jetting could allow it to address a growing portion of the market, including some high-performance segments, with a significantly different economic model. This could erode Velo3D's competitive edge in parts where extreme geometric freedom or specific mechanical properties are not paramount, or where binder jetting capabilities mature sufficiently to meet those requirements more economically.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Velo3D (NASDAQ: VELO) provides advanced, fully integrated metal 3D printing solutions for manufacturing mission-critical components across various high-value industries. The company's main products and services include its Velo3D Flow intelligent print preparation software, Sapphire production systems, and Velo3D Assure real-time quality assurance software, along with Rapid Production Solutions (RPS) offerings.
The addressable markets for Velo3D's main products and services can be primarily identified within the broader **Metal Additive Manufacturing Market** and the specialized **3D Printing in Aerospace and Defense Market**.
Metal Additive Manufacturing Market
- Globally, the metal additive manufacturing market was valued at approximately USD 6.68 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 21.23 billion by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.72% between 2025 and 2034.
- Another estimate values the global metal additive manufacturing market at USD 6.66 billion in 2025, expecting it to grow to USD 16.58 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 13.9%.
- In North America, a key region for Velo3D, the metal additive manufacturing market is estimated at USD 2.05 billion in 2025 and is predicted to reach approximately USD 6.65 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 13.89%. North America held the largest share of the global market, accounting for 41.6% in 2025.
3D Printing in Aerospace and Defense Market
- The global 3D printing in aerospace and defense market is a significant segment for Velo3D. This market is valued at USD 3.5 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 36.7 billion by 2035, growing at a robust CAGR of 26.5%.
- Alternatively, the global aerospace and defense additive manufacturing market was approximately USD 5.9 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 17.28 billion by 2031, with an average CAGR of 19.81%.
- Within the metal additive manufacturing market, the aerospace segment alone is estimated to contribute the highest market share of 34.5% in 2025.
- North America dominates the defense and aerospace additive manufacturing market, holding about 37.41% of the global share in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Velo3D (NASDAQ: VELO) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, stemming from its strategic focus and market opportunities.
- Expansion of Rapid Production Services (RPS) and Recurring Revenue: Velo3D is strategically shifting towards a platform/services business model, with its Rapid Production Services (RPS) expected to be a significant growth driver. The company aims for RPS to contribute 40% of total revenue by 2026. This service-centric approach, which includes printed parts sales, is gaining momentum, driven by strong demand and repeat orders from customers. The composition of Velo3D's backlog has already seen a significant shift toward RPS, particularly from the space and defense sectors, indicating a growing recurring revenue stream.
- Growth in the Defense and Space Sectors: The aerospace and defense sectors are consistently highlighted as primary growth markets for Velo3D. The company has actively expanded its customer base in the defense sector, adding new customers and securing strategic agreements, including partnerships with the U.S. Navy Maritime Industrial Base Program and the U.S. Army DEVCOM AvMC initiative. Strong demand from these sectors is a key factor in growing backlog and driving both system sales and RPS revenue.
- Increased System Sales with a Focus on Higher-Value Systems: While the RPS business is ramping up, system sales, particularly of the Sapphire XC systems, are expected to remain a main driver of revenue for 2025. Velo3D is focusing on high-value customers and maintaining average selling prices (ASPs), indicating a strategy to drive revenue through the sale of more advanced and higher-priced additive manufacturing systems. This is supported by the company's continuous efforts in R&D to unlock high material performance, system reliability, and production scalability.
- New Customer Acquisition and Repeat Orders: Velo3D has demonstrated continued sales execution, with a notable portion of its bookings coming from existing customers. This indicates strong customer satisfaction and the potential for further system and service sales to its current client base. Simultaneously, the company's expansion into new customer accounts, particularly within its core end markets like defense, contributes to broadening its revenue base.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- In August 2025, Velo3D completed a public offering of 5,833,333 shares at $3.00 per share, raising approximately $17.5 million in gross proceeds, intended for working capital, capital expenditures, and general corporate purposes.
- A 1-for-15 reverse stock split was approved by stockholders on June 27, 2025, and became effective on July 25, 2025, reducing the number of outstanding common shares from approximately 211 million to 14 million.
- In December 2023, Velo3D conducted a registered direct offering that raised $18,000,000 through the issuance of 36,000,000 shares of common stock and warrants to purchase an equal number of shares.
Inbound Investments
- Velo3D has raised a total funding of $150 million over four rounds, with a Series D round in August 2020 led by Lam Research Capital for an undisclosed amount.
- In August 2025, Arrayed Notes Acquisition Corp. acquired 95% of Velo3D's outstanding common shares, which led to a change in the company's CEO.
- During 2020, the company raised $28 million in a Series D funding round in April and an additional $12 million in June from strategic investors, including Piva and TNSC joining existing investors.
Capital Expenditures
- Velo3D's projected capital expenditures for the full year 2025 are estimated to be between $15 million and $20 million.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is on building out the printer fleet to support the company's Rapid Production Services (RPS).
- The net proceeds from the $17.5 million public offering in August 2025 are allocated to fund working capital, capital expenditures, and general corporate purposes.
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 518 |
| Op Inc LTM | -56 |
| FCF LTM | -14 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -40 |
| CFO LTM | 11 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -21 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -10.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -12.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | -0.3 |
| P/E | -0.2 |
| P/CFO | 17.0 |
| Total Yield | -2.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 28.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 60.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 26.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 14.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 9.0% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | 21.0% | -11.2% | 173.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 21.0% | 173.1% | |
| Median Negative | -11.2% | ||
| Max Positive | 21.0% | 173.1% | |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | ||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/15/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 01/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/15/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/03/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/20/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/28/2022 | 10-K |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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