Kinetik (KNTK)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $32.83 | Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Kinetik (KNTK)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $32.83Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 9.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 6.7% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -49% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 207% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 9.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 6.7% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -49% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 207% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
KNTK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Kinetik's (KNTK) stock moved by -22.8% during the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to today:
1. Kinetik reported a significant miss in its Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) and subsequently revised its full-year 2025 financial guidance downwards. The company's reported EPS of $0.03 fell substantially short of the forecasted $0.32, which raised profitability concerns for investors and led to a stock decline. Additionally, Kinetik adjusted its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $965 million to $1.005 billion, a reduction from earlier projections.
2. The Kings Landing processing plant experienced a slower-than-expected ramp-up to full commercial in-service. Although the facility achieved full commercial in-service in late September 2025, the delayed and slower pace of volume contributions in August and September negatively impacted earnings by approximately $20 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KNTK Return | -17% | 42% | 15% | 11% | 83% | -38% | 70% |
| Peers Return | -30% | 3% | -2% | 19% | -18% | 10% | -24% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KNTK Win Rate | 33% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 35% | 27% | 40% | 25% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KNTK Max Drawdown | -83% | -3% | -0% | -13% | -4% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -8% | -21% | -18% | -32% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FRO, BANL, TMDE, TOPS, ENB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KNTK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 513 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -83.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 502.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 144 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -83.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 509.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to FRO, BANL, TMDE, TOPS, ENB
In The Past
Kinetik's stock fell -35.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -35.4% loss requires a 54.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KNTK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.3% | 4.3% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.3% | 24.3% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.7% |
| 10102025 | SLB | SLB | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | KNTK | Kinetik | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.6% | -19.6% | -23.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.3% | 4.3% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.3% | 24.3% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.7% |
| 10102025 | SLB | SLB | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | KNTK | Kinetik | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.6% | -19.6% | -23.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kinetik
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.63 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,772 |
| Op Inc LTM | 264 |
| FCF LTM | 615 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 278 |
| CFO LTM | 638 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 726 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -4.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 38.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.6 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 8.0 |
| P/E | 17.3 |
| P/CFO | 8.1 |
| Total Yield | 13.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 7.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -21.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 34.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -36.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 1.9% | -4.1% | |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.6% | -1.5% | 0.1% |
| 2/27/2025 | -4.1% | -7.8% | -11.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | 7.5% | 6.2% | 10.9% |
| 8/7/2024 | 2.8% | 4.7% | 9.6% |
| 5/9/2024 | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% |
| 2/29/2024 | 0.3% | -0.2% | 11.4% |
| 11/8/2023 | -2.1% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -4.1% | -7.7% |
| Max Positive | 204.5% | 234.7% | 395.1% |
| Max Negative | -11.1% | -12.8% | -51.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312020 | 1122022 | DEFM14A 12/31/2020 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |