Hilltop (HTH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.12 | Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Hilltop (HTH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.12Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 7.9% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.2%, Dist 3Y High is -1.2% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.7% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -101% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -43% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | ||
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 15% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 7.9% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -101% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.2%, Dist 3Y High is -1.2% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -43% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HTH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Exceeded Expectations: Hilltop Holdings (HTH) reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.74, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.49 to $0.51. Revenue for the quarter reached $330.2 million, also exceeding estimates of $309.68 million to $310.6 million. This positive earnings surprise contributed to an immediate 1.2% increase in the stock price following the announcement on October 23, 2025.
2. Increased Share Repurchase Program: During the third quarter of 2025, Hilltop repurchased $55.1 million worth of its common stock. Furthermore, in October 2025, the company's Board of Directors authorized an additional $50 million for its stock repurchase program, increasing the total authorization to $185 million. Share repurchases can signal management's confidence in the company's valuation and can positively impact EPS by reducing the number of outstanding shares.
3.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HTH Return | 12% | 30% | -12% | 20% | -17% | 23% | 56% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 12% | -18% | 18% | 1% | 19% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HTH Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 25% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HTH Max Drawdown | -52% | -1% | -29% | -8% | -18% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -2% | -23% | -16% | -10% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HTH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 251 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 757 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1426 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
Hilltop's stock fell -37.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -37.6% loss requires a 60.3% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HTH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hilltop
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| Rev LTM | 180 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | 12 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 18 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.3 |
| P/CFO | 10.1 |
| Total Yield | 11.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 23.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 18.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -51.8% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banking | 13,289 | 13,420 | 14,944 | 13,339 | 11,147 |
| Broker-Dealer | 2,929 | 2,673 | 3,673 | 3,196 | 3,457 |
| Corporate | 2,543 | 2,466 | 2,941 | 2,823 | 2,394 |
| Mortgage Origination | 1,181 | 1,249 | 2,208 | 3,285 | 2,357 |
| All Other and Eliminations | -3,475 | -3,548 | -5,077 | -5,699 | -4,431 |
| Assets of discontinued operations | 248 | ||||
| Total | 16,467 | 16,259 | 18,689 | 16,944 | 15,172 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4282025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4222024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10232023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7242023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4242023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10242022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7252022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4252022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |