HCI (HCI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $179.14 | Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
HCI (HCI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $179.14Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 17% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -48% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, AI in Financial Services, and Digital Transformation in Financial Services. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 17% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -48% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, AI in Financial Services, and Digital Transformation in Financial Services. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HCI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. HCI Group reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.90, significantly exceeding analyst estimates. This represented a substantial increase from $0.52 in Q3 2024.**
**2. Despite the strong EPS beat, the company experienced a revenue miss for Q3 2025, with reported revenue of $216.4 million falling short of analyst estimates of $222.2 million. This led to a mixed market reaction, with the stock experiencing moderate downward pressure in after-market trading following the earnings announcement.**
**3. HCI Group completed the initial public offering (IPO) of its subsidiary, Exzeo, which is expected to significantly increase the consolidated book value and book value per share of HCI.**
**4. HCI Group announced the completion of its 2025-2026 Catastrophe Reinsurance Programs, securing over $3.5 billion in excess of loss aggregate limit across three reinsurance towers.**
**5. Alden Global Capital LLC significantly increased its stake in HCI Group during the third quarter of 2025, boosting its holdings by 42,840 shares with a reported market value of $12.08 million as of September 30, 2025.**
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HCI Return | 18% | 63% | -51% | 127% | 35% | 54% | 344% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 27% | 11% | 16% | 31% | 12% | 151% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HCI Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 42% | 83% | 67% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 57% | 53% | 62% | 68% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HCI Max Drawdown | -27% | -1% | -65% | -2% | -3% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -6% | -11% | -14% | -1% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HCI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -79.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 382.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 861 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 328 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 1480 days |
Compare to HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV
In The Past
HCI's stock fell -79.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/11/2021. A -79.3% loss requires a 382.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HCI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 06302025 | HCI | HCI | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.9% | 16.9% | -9.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 06302025 | HCI | HCI | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.9% | 16.9% | -9.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for HCI
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 203.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 50.5 |
| Rev LTM | 38,050 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 8,356 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,466 |
| CFO LTM | 8,428 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,535 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 50.5 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 8.3 |
| P/E | 11.7 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | 10.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 75.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |