Tearsheet

HCI (HCI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $179.14 | Market Cap: $2.2 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

HCI (HCI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $179.14
Market Cap: $2.2 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 17%
 
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -48%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49%
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, AI in Financial Services, and Digital Transformation in Financial Services. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 17%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -48%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, AI in Financial Services, and Digital Transformation in Financial Services. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HCI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. HCI Group reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.90, significantly exceeding analyst estimates. This represented a substantial increase from $0.52 in Q3 2024.**

**2. Despite the strong EPS beat, the company experienced a revenue miss for Q3 2025, with reported revenue of $216.4 million falling short of analyst estimates of $222.2 million. This led to a mixed market reaction, with the stock experiencing moderate downward pressure in after-market trading following the earnings announcement.**

**3. HCI Group completed the initial public offering (IPO) of its subsidiary, Exzeo, which is expected to significantly increase the consolidated book value and book value per share of HCI.**

**4. HCI Group announced the completion of its 2025-2026 Catastrophe Reinsurance Programs, securing over $3.5 billion in excess of loss aggregate limit across three reinsurance towers.**

**5. Alden Global Capital LLC significantly increased its stake in HCI Group during the third quarter of 2025, boosting its holdings by 42,840 shares with a reported market value of $12.08 million as of September 30, 2025.**

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HCI Return18%63%-51%127%35%54%344%
Peers Return4%27%11%16%31%12%151%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HCI Win Rate50%67%42%83%67%70% 
Peers Win Rate60%57%53%62%68%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HCI Max Drawdown-27%-1%-65%-2%-3%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-6%-11%-14%-1%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHCIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-79.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven382.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven861 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven79 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-41.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven328 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-35.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven253 days1480 days

Compare to HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV


In The Past

HCI's stock fell -79.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/11/2021. A -79.3% loss requires a 382.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About HCI (HCI)

Better Bets than HCI (HCI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HCI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
HCI_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025HCIHCIQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
16.9%16.9%-9.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
HCI_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025HCIHCIQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
16.9%16.9%-9.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for HCI

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HCIHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameHCI Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Mkt Price179.65133.0458.19227.18295.05284.27203.42
Mkt Cap2.237.415.8133.2117.263.750.5
Rev LTM81727,69213,29782,37658,90048,40938,050
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM4045,8656,72716,47213,3219,9858,356
FCF 3Y Avg2994,9226,25012,35013,4098,6827,466
CFO LTM4085,9886,87216,80013,3219,9858,428
CFO 3Y Avg3055,1096,38812,63413,4098,6827,535

Growth & Margins

HCIHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameHCI Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Rev Chg LTM8.8%6.9%7.4%21.5%6.7%6.7%7.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg20.4%8.6%-0.7%20.0%12.2%10.1%11.2%
Rev Chg Q23.5%6.4%16.8%21.3%8.2%4.8%12.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.3%1.6%4.0%4.9%2.2%1.2%3.1%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM50.0%21.6%51.7%20.4%22.6%20.6%22.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg41.2%19.6%51.9%18.0%24.8%19.4%22.2%
FCF/Rev LTM49.5%21.2%50.6%20.0%22.6%20.6%21.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg40.3%18.9%50.8%17.6%24.8%19.4%22.1%

Valuation

HCIHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameHCI Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Mkt Cap2.237.415.8133.2117.263.750.5
P/S2.91.41.11.91.91.31.6
P/EBIT7.98.19.111.78.58.18.3
P/E11.810.514.215.011.610.711.7
P/CFO5.96.32.29.38.46.36.3
Total Yield9.3%11.1%10.6%8.5%10.0%10.2%10.1%
Dividend Yield0.8%1.6%3.6%1.8%1.3%0.8%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg24.7%15.8%50.1%10.3%12.9%17.2%16.5%
D/E0.00.10.30.00.20.10.1
Net D/E-0.5-0.5-1.8-0.0-0.2-1.4-0.5

Returns

HCIHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameHCI Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
1M Rtn-10.9%7.5%5.1%11.5%6.0%6.2%6.1%
3M Rtn5.6%0.4%-1.7%-7.9%6.4%3.2%1.8%
6M Rtn9.1%4.9%9.4%-19.4%1.8%5.4%5.1%
12M Rtn52.6%12.0%-4.2%-11.7%4.5%10.9%7.7%
3Y Rtn400.5%85.9%75.3%76.6%40.7%58.9%75.9%
1M Excs Rtn-10.9%7.6%5.1%11.6%6.1%6.2%6.2%
3M Excs Rtn-2.1%-6.1%-8.2%-14.1%0.4%-3.2%-4.7%
6M Excs Rtn-5.6%-9.9%-5.3%-34.1%-12.9%-9.3%-9.6%
12M Excs Rtn35.5%-3.4%-18.6%-27.3%-10.0%-4.9%-7.5%
3Y Excs Rtn347.0%16.1%-0.1%7.2%-29.7%-11.1%3.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Insurance Operations933912677649 
Exzeo Group623704370158 
Corporate/other234159652961
Real Estate13212612812894
Reciprocal Exchange Operations25    
Consolidation and Elimination-136-99-62-22-15
Total1,8111,8031,177941139


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity659,237
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-1.6%
Average Daily Volume222,983
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.96
Basic Shares Quantity12,487,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023308202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022310202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021310202210-K 12/31/2021