Hartford Insurance (HIG)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $134.4 | Market Cap: $37.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Hartford Insurance (HIG)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $134.4Market Cap: $37.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9%, FCF Yield is 15% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -47% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 5.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.8 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.7% | Key risksHIG key risks include [1] significant earnings volatility due to escalating catastrophic losses impacting its property and casualty business, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -47% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 5.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.8 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.7% |
| Key risksHIG key risks include [1] significant earnings volatility due to escalating catastrophic losses impacting its property and casualty business, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Core Earnings and Shareholder Returns Offset by Recent Q1 EPS Miss. The Hartford reported robust core earnings of $1.1 billion ($4.06 per share) for Q4 2025, surpassing analyst forecasts by 26.88%. In Q1 2026, core earnings increased 36% year-over-year to $866 million. The company also returned $617 million to shareholders in Q1 2026, including $450 million in share repurchases and $167 million in common dividends. However, Q1 2026 diluted earnings per share of $3.09 fell short of the analyst consensus of $3.29 by 6.1%, and revenues of $7.23 billion were slightly below expectations, contributing to a slight premarket stock drop.
2. Balanced Performance Across Business Segments. The Business Insurance segment demonstrated strong performance with 6% written premium growth and solid underwriting. Personal Insurance notably improved its combined ratio to 87.7% in Q1 2026 from 106.1% in Q1 2025, driven by lower catastrophe losses and better underlying loss ratios. This positive momentum was somewhat balanced by the Employee Benefits segment, which saw its core earnings decline to $127 million from $136 million a year ago and an increase in its expense ratio to 26.7% from 25.4%.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.0% change in HIG stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 137.21 | 134.45 | -2.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,692 | 28,071 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.8% | 13.7% | 6.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.8 | 9.8 | -9.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 281 | 278 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HIG | -2.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 24.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | -6.1% | 50.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.7% change in HIG stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 132.24 | 134.45 | 1.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,259 | 28,071 | 3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.9% | 13.7% | 14.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.6 | 9.8 | -15.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 284 | 278 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HIG | 1.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 12.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -4.2% | 48.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.5% change in HIG stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 121.69 | 134.45 | 10.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,384 | 28,071 | 6.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.8% | 13.7% | 15.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.3 | 9.8 | -13.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 289 | 278 | 3.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HIG | 10.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 46.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.3% | 65.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 104.2% change in HIG stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 64.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 65.83 | 134.45 | 104.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 21,853 | 28,071 | 28.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.3% | 13.7% | 64.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.5 | 9.8 | -15.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 317 | 278 | 13.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 104.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HIG | 104.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 36.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 67.0% | 63.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HIG Return | 44% | 12% | 9% | 39% | 28% | 2% | 217% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 15% | 6% | 25% | 15% | 3% | 126% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HIG Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 62% | 63% | 65% | 60% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HIG Max Drawdown | -2% | -11% | -13% | 0% | -3% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -8% | -18% | -0% | -5% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TRV, CB, ALL, AIG, CNA. See HIG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HIG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 133.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 365 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -96.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2828.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5,621 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to TRV, CB, ALL, AIG, CNA
In The Past
Hartford Insurance's stock fell -19.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/13/2022. A -19.5% loss requires a 24.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Hartford Insurance (HIG)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for The Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG):
- It's like a combination of Travelers (a major commercial and personal insurer) and Fidelity Investments (for its significant asset management offerings).
- Imagine Prudential (a leading life insurer and asset manager) but with a much larger and diversified property & casualty insurance business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Commercial Property & Casualty Insurance: Provides various insurance policies for businesses, including workers' compensation, property, automobile, liability, marine, and livestock.
- Commercial Specialty Insurance: Offers specialized insurance products such as professional liability, bond, surety, and specialty casualty coverages for businesses.
- Commercial Risk Management Services: Provides customized services to help businesses manage and mitigate their risks.
- Personal Property & Casualty Insurance: Offers insurance policies for individuals covering automobiles, homeowners, and personal umbrella liabilities.
- Asbestos and Environmental Exposure Coverage: Provides specific insurance coverage for liabilities related to asbestos and environmental exposures.
- Group Life and Disability Insurance: Offers life and disability insurance policies for employer groups, associations, and affinity groups.
- Group Benefits Administration and Services: Provides underwriting, administration, and claims processing for self-funded employer disability plans, and single-company leave management solutions.
- Investment Products (Hartford Funds): Offers a range of investment products for retail and retirement accounts, including exchange-traded products.
- Investment Management and Administrative Services: Provides services related to the design, implementation, and oversight of investment products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hartford Insurance (HIG) serves a diverse customer base, encompassing both businesses and individuals, often through intermediaries. Based on the provided description, its major customer categories are:
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Businesses and Organizations: This category includes a broad range of entities, from small to large businesses seeking workers' compensation, property, automobile, liability, professional liability, bond, and specialized risk management services (Commercial Lines). It also includes employer groups, associations, and affinity groups that purchase group life, disability, and other group coverages for their members (Group Benefits). Additionally, it covers businesses requiring specialized coverage for asbestos and environmental exposures (Property & Casualty Other Operations).
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Individuals (Direct Consumers): This segment comprises individuals who directly purchase automobile, homeowners, and personal umbrella coverages for their personal needs (Personal Lines).
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Financial Institutions and Advisers: For its Hartford Funds segment, the company's direct customers and distribution partners are financial intermediaries. These include broker-dealer organizations, independent financial advisers, defined contribution plans, financial consultants, bank trust groups, and registered investment advisers who then offer Hartford's investment products to their own retail and retirement account clients.
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Christopher J. Swift
Chairman and CEO
Christopher J. Swift is the chairman and CEO of The Hartford. He joined The Hartford as CFO in 2010 and was appointed CEO in 2014. Swift played a crucial role in transforming the company after the global financial crisis, leading to its focus on property and casualty and employee benefits markets. He expanded the company's capabilities through organic growth and strategic investments, including the acquisition of Aetna's U.S. group life and disability business in 2017 and The Navigators Group, Inc. in 2019. Swift also oversaw the company's exit from the run-off life and annuity business. Before joining The Hartford, he held senior leadership positions at American International Group (AIG), serving as vice chairman and CFO of American Life Insurance Company (ALICO). He began his career as a certified public accountant at KPMG LLP, where he led the Global Insurance Industry Practice.
Beth Costello
Chief Financial Officer
Beth Costello serves as the Chief Financial Officer of The Hartford, overseeing finance and accounting, tax, treasury, strategic sourcing and real estate, and investor relations. She joined The Hartford in April 2004. From 2012 to 2014, Costello was president of The Hartford's former Talcott Resolution business. Her previous roles at The Hartford include senior vice president and controller, where she managed corporate accounting and finance transformation, and vice president, responsible for compliance with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Prior to her tenure at The Hartford, Costello was a senior manager in Deloitte & Touche LLP's audit practice and a partner at Arthur Andersen LLP.
Shekar Pannala
Chief Information Officer
Shekar Pannala was appointed Chief Information Officer (CIO) in March 2025, a role in which he is responsible for overseeing The Hartford's Technology division, including cybersecurity, infrastructure, and cloud modernization initiatives. Pannala brings over 30 years of technology leadership experience. Before joining The Hartford, he served as the Global CIO at Chubb and Chief Technology Officer at S&P Global. He also held senior positions at BNY Mellon, including Executive Vice President and Divisional CIO for asset servicing technology.
Jeffery Hawkins
Chief Data, AI and Operations Officer
Jeffery Hawkins was named Chief Data, AI, and Operations Officer in March 2025. In this expanded role, he leads the company's data, analytics, and artificial intelligence initiatives, in addition to managing operations. Hawkins has over 25 years of experience in technology, and prior to joining The Hartford, he served as CIO at CVS Health, where he was responsible for leading a significant technology transformation.
A. Morris "Mo" Tooker
President
A. Morris "Mo" Tooker serves as the President of The Hartford.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) faces several key risks inherent to the insurance and financial services industry:
- Economic, Political, and Global Market Conditions: As a provider of insurance and financial services, The Hartford is significantly exposed to fluctuations in economic, political, and global market conditions. These factors can adversely affect the demand for its products, the returns on its investment portfolios, and overall profitability. Risks include financial market disruptions, economic downturns, changes in interest rates, equity prices, credit spreads, inflation, and geopolitical instability, all of which can impact the company's financial performance.
- Catastrophe Exposure and Extreme Weather Events: As a major property and casualty insurer, The Hartford is inherently vulnerable to natural disasters and other catastrophic events. Such events can lead to significant claims, increased losses, and negatively impact underwriting results and combined ratios, directly affecting the company's profitability.
- Regulatory and Legal Risks, including Social Inflation: The insurance industry is subject to extensive regulation, exposing The Hartford to risks from adverse regulatory and legislative developments, increased governmental scrutiny, and changes in tax laws. Additionally, the company faces risks associated with "social inflation," which refers to rising claims costs due to broader societal trends, including increasingly large jury awards ("nuclear verdicts") in casualty and workers' compensation cases. These legal and regulatory challenges can increase operating costs, impact product offerings, and lead to substantial liabilities.
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Insurtech companies leveraging artificial intelligence, big data, and digital-first platforms to offer personalized, lower-cost, and more convenient insurance products, particularly in personal lines (auto, homeowners) and small commercial lines. This directly threatens Hartford's traditional agency-based and direct-to-consumer models by offering superior digital experiences, streamlined underwriting, and quicker claims processing.
Robo-advisors and low-cost digital investment platforms that provide automated, algorithm-driven financial planning and portfolio management at significantly reduced fees. This poses a threat to Hartford Funds' reliance on traditional distribution channels such as broker-dealers, independent financial advisers, and bank trust groups, by attracting retail and retirement assets to more accessible and cost-effective digital alternatives.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hartford Insurance (symbol: HIG) operates within several large addressable markets in the United States, offering a range of insurance and financial services. The market sizes for its main products and services in the U.S. are as follows:
- Workers' Compensation Insurance: The U.S. market for Workers' Compensation Insurance is estimated at $51.2 billion in 2025.
- Commercial Property Insurance: The commercial property insurance market in the U.S. was valued at $378.18 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $422.74 billion in 2026. North America generated the highest revenue in this market in 2022.
- Commercial Auto Insurance: The market size for Commercial Auto Insurance in the U.S. is estimated at $80.1 billion in 2025. Other sources indicate the global commercial auto insurance market was valued at $199.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $219.2 billion in 2026, with North America expected to hold the largest share.
- General Liability Insurance: The General Liability Insurance market in the U.S. was estimated at $152.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $224.1 billion by 2031. The U.S. liability insurance market was around $107.40 billion in 2024.
- Personal Auto Insurance: Personal auto insurance premiums in the U.S. were approximately $318 billion in 2023. The broader U.S. motor insurance market is projected to be $487.65 billion in 2025, with personal motor policies accounting for 76.35% of that market.
- Homeowners Insurance: The U.S. homeowners insurance market size is expected to be $175.60 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $184.59 billion in 2026. The global home insurance market was estimated at $247.92 billion in 2023, with North America being the largest market.
- Group Life Insurance: The global group life insurance market was valued at $174.7 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to $193.04 billion in 2025, with the U.S. holding approximately 70% of the North American market share.
- Group Disability Insurance: The U.S. group level disability insurance market size is expected to reach $49.31 billion by 2030. The total in-force premium for combined long-term disability (LTD), short-term disability (STD), and paid family and medical leave (PFML) insurance products in the U.S. was $19.9 billion in 2024 among participating companies. The overall Disability Insurance market in the U.S. is estimated at $20.2 billion in 2025.
- Asset Management / Investment Products: The United States Assets Under Management (AUM) market is valued at approximately $140 trillion. The U.S. asset management market size is projected at $70.97 trillion in 2026. In terms of revenue, the U.S. asset management market generated $115,630.9 million in 2023 and is expected to reach $849,248.5 million by 2030. North America held a dominant share in the asset management market, valued at $202.22 billion in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives across its business segments and by leveraging technology. Here are 4 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Hartford Insurance:- Strategic Expansion in Commercial Lines: The Hartford is prioritizing double-digit new business growth in selected specialty niches and aims to outpace the U.S. small-business premium growth, which is projected at a 6-8% CAGR for 2024-2026. This includes scaling specialty lines such as marine, excess casualty, energy, management/professional liability, and E&S property/casualty. In the small commercial and middle market segments, growth is focused on specific verticals like construction, technology, and healthcare, offering multi-line packages and risk engineering. The Business Insurance segment has already demonstrated robust top-line growth, with 7% for Q4 2025 and 8% for the full year 2025. The company also forecasts property insurance business expansion from $3.3 billion to $3.6–$3.7 billion in 2026.
- Personal Lines Turnaround and Prevail Platform Rollout: After a pivotal year in 2025 where auto insurance achieved targeted profitability, The Hartford is focusing on expanding its Personal Lines business. A key driver is the nationwide rollout of the "Prevail" platform, which offers a bundled auto, home, and umbrella package through the agency channel. This platform is expected to be live in approximately 30 states by early 2027, creating significant growth opportunities in the retail channel.
- Growth in Hartford Funds' Assets Under Management (AUM): The Hartford Funds segment is poised for growth by focusing on increasing its Assets Under Management (AUM). This will be achieved by pushing model portfolios, fixed-income/short-duration solutions, and retirement income solutions to deepen penetration with Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) and broker-dealers. Hartford Funds AUM was approximately $150-$170 billion in 2024-2025, and growing its distribution remains a priority.
- Leveraging Technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI): The Hartford is significantly investing in technology and AI-first capabilities across its operations to drive competitive advantage. These advancements are enhancing claims processing, underwriting, and overall operational efficiency. For example, the ICON quoting tool allows over 75% of new business policies to be quoted without human intervention, improving efficiency and customer experience. These technology investments also support a more efficient expense base and improved combined ratios, contributing to scalable distribution and better underwriting margins.
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Share Repurchases
- The Hartford's Board of Directors authorized a new $3 billion share repurchase program, effective from August 1, 2022, through the end of 2024. This was in addition to $450 million in share repurchases completed in the second quarter of 2022.
- For the full year 2025, the company returned $2.2 billion to stockholders, which included $1.6 billion of shares repurchased.
- As of year-end 2025, The Hartford had a share repurchase authorization of $1.55 billion remaining through December 31, 2026, and expects to increase quarterly repurchases to $450 million starting in Q1 2026.
Share Issuance
- The number of outstanding shares has consistently declined over the past few years, indicating net share repurchases rather than significant issuance. Hartford Insurance's outstanding shares decreased by 4.05% in 2025 (to 0.287 billion), 4.14% in 2024 (to 0.299 billion), and 5.46% in 2023 (to 0.312 billion).
Outbound Investments
- The Hartford plans to continue its focus on strategic capital allocation to support growth initiatives and enhance shareholder value by exploring opportunities for strategic investments that align with its long-term objectives.
Capital Expenditures
- The Hartford has shifted to an "AI-first mindset" and has allocated investment spend to accelerate progress in artificial intelligence, with early results observed in claims, underwriting, and customer operations.
- The company is rolling out the Prevail Agency platform, which is currently live in 10 states, with plans for approximately 30 state launches by early 2027, aimed at enhancing digital capabilities and supporting operational efficiency.
- Investments in innovation are strengthening the company's competitive position and ability to generate superior returns for shareholders.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| 03312026 | HBAN | Huntington Bancshares | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | NP | Neptune Insurance | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03202026 | MKTX | MarketAxess | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.7% |
| 03202026 | RYAN | Ryan Specialty | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -2.7% | -2.7% | -8.5% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 173.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 48.2 |
| Rev LTM | 38,506 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 7,817 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,343 |
| CFO LTM | 8,016 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,553 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 48.2 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | - |
| P/EBIT | 7.5 |
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/CFO | 6.0 |
| Total Yield | 12.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 74.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Insurance | 53,296 | ||||
| Employee Benefits | 13,502 | ||||
| Personal Insurance | 6,034 | ||||
| Property & Casualty (P&C) Other Operations | 4,312 | 4,235 | 3,897 | 3,792 | 3,505 |
| Corporate | 3,012 | 2,874 | 2,834 | 3,803 | 3,761 |
| Hartford Funds | 761 | 635 | 720 | 662 | |
| Commercial Lines | 49,711 | 47,234 | 48,234 | 45,482 | |
| Group Benefits | 13,697 | 13,278 | 14,442 | 14,732 | |
| Mutual Funds/Hartford Funds | 684 | ||||
| Personal Lines | 5,579 | 5,130 | 5,587 | 5,969 | |
| Total | 80,917 | 76,780 | 73,008 | 76,578 | 74,111 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $134.45 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 37.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/15/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $137.65 | $132.08 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -2.3% | 1.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.7% | 18.1% |
| Downside Capture | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| Upside Capture | 47.27 | 38.09 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 25.8% | 22.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.36 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| Up Beta | 0.49 | 0.20 | 0.58 | 0.38 | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| Down Beta | -0.73 | -0.06 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| Up Capture | 86% | 43% | 14% | 7% | 34% | 24% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 30 | 66 | 136 | 428 |
| Down Capture | 74% | 14% | 24% | 1% | 49% | 57% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 20 | 32 | 59 | 115 | 319 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HIG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIG | 14.9% | 18.4% | 0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.9% | 14.7% | 0.36 | 53.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 34.0% | 12.6% | 2.05 | 22.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 27.2% | 1.29 | -11.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.4% | 18.0% | 1.97 | -19.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.74 | 40.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 42.1% | -0.32 | -1.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HIG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIG | 17.4% | 22.0% | 0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.6% | 18.7% | 0.40 | 72.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 50.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.8% | 0.97 | -1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 11.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 47.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.3% | 0.34 | 14.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HIG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIG | 13.8% | 29.1% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.7% | 22.2% | 0.53 | 71.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 54.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | -4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.1% | 17.8% | 0.47 | 18.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 52.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.3% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 13.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/23/2026 | -3.7% | ||
| 1/29/2026 | 2.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% |
| 10/27/2025 | -1.8% | -0.6% | 10.1% |
| 7/28/2025 | 2.8% | 4.1% | 9.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | -0.4% | 2.2% | 8.1% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.4% | -0.7% | 5.3% |
| 10/24/2024 | -6.8% | -8.3% | 0.2% |
| 7/25/2024 | 7.1% | 7.1% | 10.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 15 | 18 |
| # Negative | 14 | 8 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 3.1% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -1.4% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 7.5% | 15.1% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -8.3% | -8.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
HIG Trade Sentinel
UNDERWEIGHT (Score 3-4)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock receives a low score despite being a competent operator with a fair valuation. The primary reason is the combination of a contested competitive position and decelerating growth, which triggers a significant penalty. The risk-reward skew is not compelling enough to compensate for the fact that the business is struggling to outgrow the market and is less efficient than its main competitors. This profile suggests the stock is likely to be 'dead money' or an underperformer, making it an unattractive investment.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type B: 'Quality Compounder / Stalwart'Hartford is a mature, profitable insurer focused on disciplined underwriting, achieving high and stable returns on equity (20.3% Core Earnings ROE), and consistent capital returns. This aligns with the 'Quality Compounder' focus on ROIC, pricing power, and earnings consistency, rather than hypergrowth or a deep turnaround.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for the stock is management's ability to maintain underwriting profitability in its core Business Insurance segment (89.2% underlying combined ratio) while benefiting from a structurally higher interest rate environment that boosts net investment income (+13% YoY). This dual engine is expected to sustain a high-teens/low-twenties core earnings ROE, funding significant capital returns to shareholders.
- Core Earnings ROE was 20.3% TTM as of Q1 2026, exceeding the market-rewarded threshold of 18%.
- The Business Insurance underlying combined ratio was 89.2% in Q1 2026, indicating strong underwriting profitability.
- Net Investment Income grew 13% YoY in Q1 2026, demonstrating the positive impact of higher yields.
- The company returned $617 million to shareholders in Q1 2026, underscoring strong cash generation and capital return policy.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is that 'social inflation'—rising litigation costs and larger jury awards ('nuclear verdicts')—drives claims severity in key liability lines (like commercial auto) higher than priced for. This could lead to adverse prior-year reserve development, compressing underwriting margins in the core Business Insurance segment and breaking the underwriting profitability narrative.
- Industry data shows 'nuclear verdicts' (awards >$10M) increased significantly in recent years, a trend impacting all commercial insurers.
- The Business Insurance segment experienced a shift to unfavorable prior year development in Q1 2026, a potential early indicator of this pressure.
- Rival P&C carriers have cited social inflation as a primary driver of adverse development in casualty lines.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Business Insurance Underlying Combined Ratio | < 90% | This is the core profit engine. A sustained ratio below 90% confirms underwriting discipline. A creep above this level would signal margin pressure. |
| Net Investment Income Growth (YoY) | > 10% | This is the second engine of profitability. Continued strong growth confirms the tailwind from the rate environment. A sharp deceleration could signal issues in the alternative investment portfolio. |
| Prior-Year Reserve Development (Business Insurance) | Consistently Favorable | A shift to unfavorable development, as seen in Q1 2026, is a key red flag for the 'social inflation' anti-alpha thesis. A return to favorable development is critical for confidence. |
Underwriting Discipline vs. Social Inflation
BULL VIEW
Strong pricing, a high ROE (20.3%), and robust net investment income growth (+13% YoY) will sustain profitability, rendering social inflation a manageable, priced-in risk.
CORE TENSION
Can disciplined underwriting and investment income offset rising commercial claims costs from 'social inflation' (larger jury awards), which threatens reserve adequacy and margin stability?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The Business Insurance segment shifted from favorable to unfavorable prior year development in Q1 2026, directly validating the primary bear concern about rising loss costs.
BEAR VIEW
The Q1 shift to unfavorable prior-year development is the first sign that social inflation is outpacing pricing, signaling inevitable margin compression in the core Business Insurance segment.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Prior-Year Reserve Development in Business Insurance. Watch if it remains unfavorable after the negative shift reported in Q1 2026, confirming the bear thesis. |
Late October 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Business Insurance Underlying Combined Ratio. A second quarter of adverse development would be highly negative. Watch for sustained ratio > 89.2% and rising disability loss ratio. |
Ongoing (Q2-Q3 2026) | Industry Pricing Surveys (Ivans Index) Watch: Commercial lines renewal rate changes. Watch for continued deceleration from Q1 levels, which signals an end to the 'hard market' pricing power. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Oct 27, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Announced record Q3 net income of $1.1 billion. P&C written premiums increased by 7%, driven by 9% growth in the Business Insurance segment. | Changed Little (-0.1%) $124.03 -> $123.89 |
Dec 9, 2025 | Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference Details: CEO Christopher Swift and CFO Beth Costello participated in a fireside chat, providing an update on the company's strategy and financial outlook. | Flat (0.2%) $129.17 -> $129.48 |
Jan 29, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported a significant EPS beat of $4.06 vs. $3.22 consensus. However, the Business Insurance expense ratio increased by 1 point, driven by higher technology costs. | Rose significantly by 2.0% $131.80 -> $134.48 |
Feb 18, 2026 | Dividend Announcement Details: The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share, continuing its history of capital returns to shareholders. | Muted (-0.7%) $140.65 -> $139.71 |
Mar 4, 2026 | Stock Reached 52-Week High Details: Stock price hit a new high of $142.17, reflecting strong market momentum following the positive Q4 2025 earnings report. | Flat (0.8%) $141.08 -> $142.17 |
Apr 23, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Details: Despite a miss on revenue/EPS estimates, stock gained. P&C written premiums grew 4%, but the key metric was a shift to unfavorable prior year development in Business Insurance. | Modest 1.1% gain $138.11 -> $139.61 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Volatility is moderate (1.5x S&P), but fundamental conviction is low. Bearish sentiment, driven by decelerating growth and emerging margin pressure, alongside a contested moat, warrants a Conservative (1-3%) position.
Diversification Alternatives
CB
INDUSTRYUnlike HIG's contested moat, CB has a superior, global franchise in complex commercial lines and demonstrates best-in-class underwriting efficiency (84% combined ratio vs. HIG's 89.2%).
PGR
SECTORAvoids HIG's primary 'social inflation' risk in commercial lines. PGR's durable competitive advantage is built on a proprietary data moat from decades of telematics leadership.
The Hartford is a disciplined underwriter leveraging a scale position in U.S. Commercial and Employee Benefits insurance to generate stable, high-return-on-equity results, using strong investment income as a primary profit driver.
Filter all news through the lens of underwriting discipline and net investment income trends.
Business Insurance combined ratio remaining below 90; consistent net investment income growth above 5% YoY; renewal price increases in Commercial and Personal lines outpacing loss cost trends; Employee Benefits core earnings margin staying above 6.5%.
Significant reserve charges (adverse prior-year development); a sustained drop in limited partnership investment returns; market share loss in Small Commercial or Middle & Large Commercial segments to aggressive pricing from competitors; a sharp increase in the group disability loss ratio.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in catastrophe losses unless they breach historical norms; modest changes in Hartford Funds' AUM net flows; typical seasonality in personal auto claims.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is rewarding consistently strong underwriting results, particularly the successful turnaround in Personal Lines profitability and sustained high margins in the core Business Insurance segment. The catalyst is the demonstrated ability to achieve high-teens core earnings ROE, driven by both underwriting gains and rising net investment income in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
Business & Commercial Insurance
$16.3B TTM (56% of Total) · 10.8% MarginWhat It Is
Workers' Compensation, General Liability, Commercial Auto, and Property insurance policies for small, mid-sized, and large businesses and specialized programs.
Who Pays & How
Millions of U.S. businesses pay recurring premiums for protection against liability and property loss. The Hartford's 200+ year reputation, strong relationships with independent agents, and specialized underwriting for specific industries create customer loyalty and switching costs related to the complexity of changing providers.
Competition
Employee Group Benefits
$7.3B TTM (25% of Total) · 6.9% MarginWhat It Is
Group life insurance, short-term and long-term disability insurance, and other supplemental health policies sold through employers.
Who Pays & How
Employers pay premiums to offer benefits packages to their employees, choosing The Hartford for its product breadth, service reputation, and competitive pricing. High persistency (customer retention) is driven by the administrative complexity for an employer to switch benefits providers.
Competition
Personal Insurance (Auto & Home)
$4.0B TTM (14% of Total) · 15% MarginWhat It Is
Automobile and homeowners insurance policies.
Who Pays & How
Individuals, primarily members of AARP, pay premiums for auto and home insurance. The Hartford has been the exclusive insurance writer for AARP for over 40 years, providing a significant, sticky customer acquisition channel.
Competition
Investment Funds Management
$1.1B TTM (4% of Total) · 16% MarginWhat It Is
Manages mutual funds and ETFs for retail and institutional investors.
Who Pays & How
Investors pay management fees based on the amount of assets they have invested in Hartford Funds' products. Investors choose these funds based on performance, strategy, and distribution through financial advisors.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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