Guild (GHLD)
Market Price (11/28/2025): $20.02 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Guild (GHLD)
Market Price (11/28/2025): $20.02Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.7% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 67% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.86 | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 37x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.7% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.86 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 67% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 37x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GHLD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The search results indicate that several significant events for Guild Holdings Company (GHLD) are projected to occur or have occurred within the specified timeframe of 7/31/2025 to today (November 28, 2025). These events primarily revolve around earnings reports and a pending acquisition. Here are the key points for why the stock may have moved during this period: 1. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report. Guild Holdings Company reported its Third Quarter 2025 results on November 5, 2025. The company announced total originations of $7.4 billion, net revenue of $307.4 million, and net income attributable to Guild of $33.3 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. Adjusted net income was $47.0 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $72.0 million, marking a positive sentiment with a reported 0.25% end-of-day impact. 2. Pending Acquisition by Bayview Asset Management. Guild Holdings Company has a pending acquisition by a fund managed by Bayview Asset Management, LLC. This transaction was noted in the announcements for both Q3 and Q2 2025 earnings, leading to the cancellation of earnings conference calls. Such an acquisition typically influences stock movement, and details were also mentioned in June 2025.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GHLD Return | - | -12% | -28% | 45% | 4% | 48% | 42% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 17% | -26% | 65% | 42% | 22% | 157% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GHLD Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 25% | 67% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 63% | 38% | 57% | 50% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GHLD Max Drawdown | - | -22% | -43% | -5% | -6% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -53% | -19% | -34% | -11% | -18% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ESNT, WD, SNFCA, GHI, FNMA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GHLD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1133 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -8.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 9.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 148 days |
Compare to ESNT, WD, SNFCA, GHI, FNMA
In The Past
Guild's stock fell -55.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/5/2021. A -55.2% loss requires a 123.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GHLD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | BRO | Brown & Brown | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.9% | 0.9% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | CPAY | Corpay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -8.1% |
| 10102025 | APO | Apollo Asset Management | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.6% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | BRO | Brown & Brown | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.9% | 0.9% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | CPAY | Corpay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -8.1% |
| 10102025 | APO | Apollo Asset Management | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.6% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Guild
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 41.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,211 |
| Op Inc LTM | 134 |
| FCF LTM | 37 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 135 |
| CFO LTM | 43 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 143 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 7.3 |
| P/E | 10.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.0 |
| Total Yield | 11.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 62.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Origination | 516 | 718 | 1,485 | 1,768 | 827 |
| Servicing | 149 | 453 | 97 | -138 | -106 |
| All Other | -11 | -6 | -6 | -8 | -8 |
| Total | 655 | 1,165 | 1,576 | 1,622 | 713 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Servicing | 100 | 409 | 56 | -184 | -138 |
| All Other | -66 | -144 | -165 | -211 | -37 |
| Origination | -74 | 64 | 393 | 765 | 181 |
| Total | -39 | 329 | 284 | 371 | 6 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/7/2025 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% |
| 3/6/2025 | 2.5% | 0.5% | 19.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | 3.6% | 1.4% | -4.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | 5.5% | -8.1% | 4.7% |
| 3/12/2024 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 11/8/2023 | 3.9% | 16.2% | 19.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | 5.5% | 4.4% | 7.9% |
| 3/9/2023 | -3.7% | -4.5% | -6.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 1.7% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -5.3% | -9.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 16.2% | 27.4% |
| Max Negative | -3.7% | -8.1% | -17.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |