Tearsheet

Guild (GHLD)


Market Price (11/28/2025): $20.02 | Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance

Guild (GHLD)


Market Price (11/28/2025): $20.02
Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.7%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 67%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.86
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 37x
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Real Estate Data Analytics.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.7%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Real Estate Data Analytics.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.86
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 67%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 37x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GHLD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The search results indicate that several significant events for Guild Holdings Company (GHLD) are projected to occur or have occurred within the specified timeframe of 7/31/2025 to today (November 28, 2025). These events primarily revolve around earnings reports and a pending acquisition. Here are the key points for why the stock may have moved during this period: 1. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report. Guild Holdings Company reported its Third Quarter 2025 results on November 5, 2025. The company announced total originations of $7.4 billion, net revenue of $307.4 million, and net income attributable to Guild of $33.3 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. Adjusted net income was $47.0 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $72.0 million, marking a positive sentiment with a reported 0.25% end-of-day impact. 2. Pending Acquisition by Bayview Asset Management. Guild Holdings Company has a pending acquisition by a fund managed by Bayview Asset Management, LLC. This transaction was noted in the announcements for both Q3 and Q2 2025 earnings, leading to the cancellation of earnings conference calls. Such an acquisition typically influences stock movement, and details were also mentioned in June 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GHLD Return--12%-28%45%4%48%42%
Peers Return4%17%-26%65%42%22%157%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GHLD Win Rate50%42%25%67%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate55%63%38%57%50%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GHLD Max Drawdown--22%-43%-5%-6%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-53%-19%-34%-11%-18%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ESNT, WD, SNFCA, GHI, FNMA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGHLDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-55.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven123.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1133 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-8.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven9.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven18 days148 days

Compare to ESNT, WD, SNFCA, GHI, FNMA


In The Past

Guild's stock fell -55.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/5/2021. A -55.2% loss requires a 123.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Guild (GHLD)

Better Bets than Guild (GHLD)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GHLD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BRO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025BROBrown & BrownDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.9%0.9%-4.2%
CPAY_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025CPAYCorpayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%0.0%
EEFT_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025EEFTEuronet WorldwideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-8.2%
GPN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GPNGlobal PaymentsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.6%-3.6%-8.1%
APO_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025APOApollo Asset ManagementDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.6%10.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BRO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025BROBrown & BrownDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.9%0.9%-4.2%
CPAY_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025CPAYCorpayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%0.0%
EEFT_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025EEFTEuronet WorldwideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-8.2%
GPN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GPNGlobal PaymentsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.6%-3.6%-8.1%
APO_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025APOApollo Asset ManagementDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.6%10.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Guild

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GHLDESNTWDSNFCAGHIFNMAMedian
NameGuild Essent Walker &.Security.Greyston.Federal . 
Mkt Price20.0162.9965.108.70--41.50
Mkt Cap1.26.12.20.2--1.7
Rev LTM1,1861,2901,236341--1,211
Op Inc LTM--134---134
FCF LTM25837-94948--37
FCF 3Y Avg-28879822347--135
CFO LTM34854-93751--43
CFO 3Y Avg-28080823749--143

Growth & Margins

GHLDESNTWDSNFCAGHIFNMAMedian
NameGuild Essent Walker &.Security.Greyston.Federal . 
Rev Chg LTM61.3%2.1%16.0%5.6%--10.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.8%8.2%-2.3%-7.0%--1.2%
Rev Chg Q97.6%-1.3%15.5%4.2%--9.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM15.1%-0.3%3.8%1.1%--2.4%
Op Mgn LTM--10.8%---10.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--11.4%---11.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.4%---0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM2.9%66.2%-75.8%15.0%--8.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-38.7%67.1%26.4%14.5%--20.4%
FCF/Rev LTM2.1%64.8%-76.8%14.1%--8.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-39.6%66.4%25.2%13.9%--19.6%

Valuation

GHLDESNTWDSNFCAGHIFNMAMedian
NameGuild Essent Walker &.Security.Greyston.Federal . 
Mkt Cap1.26.12.20.2--1.7
P/S1.04.82.30.7--1.7
P/EBIT-7.220.97.3--7.3
P/E9.88.824.310.8--10.3
P/CFO36.67.3-3.04.8--6.0
Total Yield13.9%13.3%4.1%9.3%--11.3%
Dividend Yield3.7%2.0%0.0%0.0%--1.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-29.0%13.4%11.3%21.6%--12.3%
D/E0.80.11.10.5--0.6
Net D/E0.7-0.91.00.0--0.3

Returns

GHLDESNTWDSNFCAGHIFNMAMedian
NameGuild Essent Walker &.Security.Greyston.Federal . 
1M Rtn0.8%5.2%-21.0%5.3%--3.0%
3M Rtn0.5%0.1%-23.5%-0.9%---0.4%
6M Rtn46.0%9.3%-3.8%-9.6%--2.7%
12M Rtn55.0%11.4%-39.1%-30.1%---9.3%
3Y Rtn97.4%72.5%-14.0%52.4%--62.5%
1M Excs Rtn1.9%6.3%-19.8%6.5%--4.1%
3M Excs Rtn-4.3%-4.7%-28.2%-5.7%---5.2%
6M Excs Rtn30.7%-6.0%-19.1%-24.8%---12.5%
12M Excs Rtn40.2%-0.8%-51.9%-42.8%---21.8%
3Y Excs Rtn54.3%2.1%-83.1%-14.4%---6.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Origination5167181,4851,768827
Servicing14945397-138-106
All Other-11-6-6-8-8
Total6551,1651,5761,622713


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Servicing10040956-184-138
All Other-66-144-165-211-37
Origination-7464393765181
Total-393292843716


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity248,132
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.9%
Average Daily Volume17,901
Days-to-Cover Short Interest13.86
Basic Shares Quantity62,253,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.4%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/7/20250.6%0.9%1.5%
3/6/20252.5%0.5%19.7%
11/6/20243.6%1.4%-4.4%
8/8/20245.5%-8.1%4.7%
3/12/20240.0%0.1%0.7%
11/8/20233.9%16.2%19.8%
8/3/20235.5%4.4%7.9%
3/9/2023-3.7%-4.5%-6.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1199
# Negative466
Median Positive3.6%1.7%7.9%
Median Negative-2.2%-5.3%-9.0%
Max Positive6.5%16.2%27.4%
Max Negative-3.7%-8.1%-17.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024307202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023314202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022313202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021314202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0McGarry Strategic Enterprises, LLC 6162025Sell16.241001,62471,124,948Form
1McGarry Strategic Enterprises, LLC 4012025Sell16.0692314,82470,342,489Form
2Bryant Edward JR 12112024Sell13.494,00053,944321,479Form