Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -377%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -104%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.3%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
  
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.5%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -377%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.5%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -104%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GDOT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Analyst Consensus on "Reduce" Rating and Predicted Downside

Wall Street analysts maintained a generally negative outlook on Green Dot (GDOT) shares during the period, with a consensus rating to "Reduce" the stock. Analyst price targets as of November 2025 indicated a forecasted downside, ranging from -3.40% to -12.07% from the then-current price, suggesting that market experts anticipated a decline in the stock's value.

2. Narrow Miss in Third Quarter 2025 Revenue Estimates

Green Dot reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, which, despite beating earnings per share estimates, showed a slight miss on total operating revenue. The company posted non-GAAP revenue of $491.9 million, which narrowly fell short of the consensus estimate of $495.0 million.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GDOT Return139%-35%-56%-37%7%22%-44%
Peers Return286%110%-52%148%-4%7%895%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GDOT Win Rate83%25%33%58%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate60%62%30%60%35%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GDOT Max Drawdown-27%-39%-58%-51%-19%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-2%-60%-6%-33%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RIOT, UPST, WINA, PSEC, WRLD. See GDOT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGDOTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-87.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven684.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-54.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven118.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven61 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-75.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven313.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to RIOT, UPST, WINA, PSEC, WRLD


In The Past

Green Dot's stock fell -87.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -87.3% loss requires a 684.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Green Dot (GDOT)

Better Bets than Green Dot (GDOT)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GDOT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
GDOT_10312020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312020GDOTGreen DotQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-14.2%-20.6%-25.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
GDOT_10312020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312020GDOTGreen DotQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-14.2%-20.6%-25.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Green Dot

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GDOTRIOTUPSTWINAPSECWRLDMedian
NameGreen DotRiot Pla.Upstart Winmark Prospect.World Ac. 
Mkt Price13.1915.6445.30430.162.65159.2130.47
Mkt Cap0.75.44.41.51.20.81.4
Rev LTM1,92863795985-407524581
Op Inc LTM80-324-54--54
FCF LTM57-1,631-3854552325551
FCF 3Y Avg70-906-1534419425657
CFO LTM138-566-3674552325992
CFO 3Y Avg149-229-1394419426196

Growth & Margins

GDOTRIOTUPSTWINAPSECWRLDMedian
NameGreen DotRiot Pla.Upstart Winmark Prospect.World Ac. 
Rev Chg LTM22.2%103.6%73.6%3.3%-226.8%2.0%12.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.7%37.8%10.8%1.6%96.8%-3.3%10.7%
Rev Chg Q23.8%112.6%70.9%5.2%-506.8%-0.7%14.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.3%17.6%13.6%1.3%-122.6%-0.2%3.3%
Op Mgn LTM4.1%-50.8%-64.3%--4.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.0%-80.1%-64.3%--2.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.8%18.4%--0.9%--1.8%
CFO/Rev LTM7.2%-88.8%-38.3%53.0%-49.3%7.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.3%-42.8%-16.7%52.7%-49.7%9.3%
FCF/Rev LTM2.9%-256.0%-40.2%52.8%-48.7%2.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.4%-207.0%-18.8%52.4%-48.8%4.4%

Valuation

GDOTRIOTUPSTWINAPSECWRLDMedian
NameGreen DotRiot Pla.Upstart Winmark Prospect.World Ac. 
Mkt Cap0.75.44.41.51.20.81.4
P/S0.310.45.120.9-1.65.1
P/EBIT7.435.8-32.0--32.0
P/E-24.840.3152.542.8-3.115.127.7
P/CFO4.3-11.7-13.439.52.73.33.0
Total Yield-4.0%2.5%0.7%4.6%-9.6%6.6%1.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%2.2%23.1%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.1%-26.4%-4.3%3.0%13.2%34.6%6.0%
D/E0.10.10.40.01.50.80.3
Net D/E-3.80.10.30.01.40.70.2

Returns

GDOTRIOTUPSTWINAPSECWRLDMedian
NameGreen DotRiot Pla.Upstart Winmark Prospect.World Ac. 
1M Rtn14.0%-24.5%-4.7%6.6%3.1%19.8%4.9%
3M Rtn-3.9%16.3%-29.7%-4.9%-3.8%-7.9%-4.4%
6M Rtn39.6%64.6%-10.6%5.1%-10.1%1.6%3.3%
12M Rtn28.3%28.8%-37.8%8.6%-31.7%32.5%18.5%
3Y Rtn-34.5%215.3%142.6%95.7%-48.8%121.0%108.4%
1M Excs Rtn14.0%-24.5%-4.7%6.7%3.1%19.8%4.9%
3M Excs Rtn-9.1%13.5%-36.6%-13.4%-8.8%-14.8%-11.2%
6M Excs Rtn24.9%49.9%-25.3%-9.7%-24.8%-13.1%-11.4%
12M Excs Rtn14.9%10.1%-56.1%-5.7%-48.5%18.1%2.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-104.1%195.2%75.1%22.6%-121.2%59.5%41.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Business to Business (B2B) Services773594459305 
Consumer Services499587695620 
Money Movement Services210222240288 
Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS) commissions and processing expenses202945  
Corporate and Other320-5-13-31
Other income-3-30  
Net revenue adjustment   53 
Account Services    843
Processing and Settlement Services    297
Total1,5011,4501,4331,2541,109


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Consumer Services177222224212 
Money Movement Services113118116124 
Business to Business (B2B) Services77867366 
Impairment charges0-40-22 
Other expense-7-8-13-12 
Legal settlement expenses-24-16-1  
Amortization of acquired intangible assets-24-24-28-28 
Stock based compensation and related employer taxes-34-35-52-56 
Depreciation and amortization of property, equipment and internal-use software-59-57-57-58 
Corporate and Other-197-188-196-196-118
Account Services    147
Processing and Settlement Services    94
Total23946630123


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,567,615
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.6%
Average Daily Volume699,742
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.24
Basic Shares Quantity55,127,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.8%

Returns Analyses

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024304202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211108202110-Q 9/30/2021