Evolution Petroleum (EPM)
Market Price (10/6/2026): $3.575 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Evolution Petroleum (EPM)
Market Price (10/6/2026): $3.575Market Cap: $-Sector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% | Key risksEPM key risks include [1] its reliance on third-party operators, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% |
| Key risksEPM key risks include [1] its reliance on third-party operators, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Evolution Petroleum (EPM) stock has remained largely at the same level since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weaker Fiscal Q3 2026 Results and Subsequent Analyst Downgrade set a cautious tone.
Evolution Petroleum (EPM), which operates on a fiscal calendar ending June 30, reported its fiscal Q3 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) results on May 12, 2026. The company announced a widened net loss of $8.9 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, a significant increase from a $2.2 million loss in the prior-year quarter, with total revenues decreasing 11% year-over-year to $20.2 million. These results were attributed to lower realized commodity prices, unfavorable natural gas differentials, and unrealized hedge losses. Following this, Freedom Capital downgraded EPM from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" rating on May 20, 2026, and reduced its price target from $5.00 to $4.50, dampening investor sentiment entering the specified period.
2. Mixed Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings Performance provided counterbalancing sentiment.
The company's fiscal Q4 2026 results (ended June 30, 2026), reported on September 15, 2026, showed a rebound in several key metrics. Evolution Petroleum reported a net income of $4.6 million ($0.13 per diluted share) compared to the prior quarter's loss, and revenues increased 20% sequentially to $24.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled sequentially to $6.5 million. However, the adjusted loss of $0.02 per share missed analyst expectations of a $0.01 per share profit, primarily due to realized derivative losses and higher lease operating costs. This combination of strong sequential recovery in revenue and EBITDA but a miss on adjusted EPS likely prevented significant upward momentum.
Show more
Evolution Petroleum (EPM) stock has remained largely at the same level since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weaker Fiscal Q3 2026 Results and Subsequent Analyst Downgrade set a cautious tone.
Evolution Petroleum (EPM), which operates on a fiscal calendar ending June 30, reported its fiscal Q3 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) results on May 12, 2026. The company announced a widened net loss of $8.9 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, a significant increase from a $2.2 million loss in the prior-year quarter, with total revenues decreasing 11% year-over-year to $20.2 million. These results were attributed to lower realized commodity prices, unfavorable natural gas differentials, and unrealized hedge losses. Following this, Freedom Capital downgraded EPM from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" rating on May 20, 2026, and reduced its price target from $5.00 to $4.50, dampening investor sentiment entering the specified period.
2. Mixed Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings Performance provided counterbalancing sentiment.
The company's fiscal Q4 2026 results (ended June 30, 2026), reported on September 15, 2026, showed a rebound in several key metrics. Evolution Petroleum reported a net income of $4.6 million ($0.13 per diluted share) compared to the prior quarter's loss, and revenues increased 20% sequentially to $24.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled sequentially to $6.5 million. However, the adjusted loss of $0.02 per share missed analyst expectations of a $0.01 per share profit, primarily due to realized derivative losses and higher lease operating costs. This combination of strong sequential recovery in revenue and EBITDA but a miss on adjusted EPS likely prevented significant upward momentum.
3. Share Dilution and Increased Borrowings for Acquisitions impacted investor perception.
Evolution Petroleum conducted a public offering of 3.7 million common shares priced at $3.25 per share, which closed on August 20, 2026. This offering was executed to fund an approximately $16 million acquisition of Permian mineral and royalty interests, leading to an immediate 3% decline in the company's stock price due to the dilutive effect of the increased share count. The acquisition was also partly funded by $3.2 million in additional borrowings, and the company secured a temporary increase in its credit facility borrowing base from $65 million to $73 million.
4. Volatile Commodity Prices and Geopolitical Uncertainty contributed to market hesitancy.
The broader macroeconomic environment for the oil and gas sector was marked by significant volatility. US crude futures (WTI) experienced a wide swing in the third quarter of 2026, averaging around $86 a barrel but ranging from a low of $67 in early July to a high of $107 in mid-September. Natural gas pricing continued to be a headwind in fiscal Q4 2026, with Henry Hub prices falling 7.5% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026. Furthermore, the ongoing "Iran war" introduced substantial uncertainty into energy markets, making future planning difficult for producers and likely constraining overall sector growth.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EPM | -0.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.8% | -27.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 19.5% | 37.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EPM | -17.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.4% | -26.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 4.3% | 47.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EPM | -17.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.3% | -9.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 45.2% | 50.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EPM | -30.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 87.5% | 19.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 53.4% | 54.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EPM Return | 86% | 59% | -17% | -2% | -25% | 10% | 97% |
| Peers Return | 151% | 2501% | -13% | -7% | -26% | 9% | 4194% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EPM Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 62% | 33% | 48% | 38% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EPM Max Drawdown | -29% | -35% | -42% | -24% | -32% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -50% | -39% | -37% | -52% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NOG, AMPY, EP, SD, REI. See EPM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EPM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -14.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -55.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 447 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1673 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 317 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Evolution Petroleum's stock fell -20.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 24.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | EPM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -55.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 447 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1673 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 317 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 295.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.5% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Evolution Petroleum's stock fell -20.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 24.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Evolution Petroleum (EPM)
Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) is an independent oil and natural gas company primarily engaged in the development, production, ownership, and management of oil and gas properties exclusively within the United States. The company's core business involves extracting hydrocarbons—specifically crude oil and natural gas—from established fields, with a strategic focus on maximizing recovery and value from these assets.
EPM's operational strategy includes utilizing advanced techniques such as CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in its significant Delhi Holt-Bryant Unit in Louisiana, which spans over 13,000 acres. Beyond this key project, Evolution Petroleum also holds interests in the Hamilton Dome field in Wyoming and the expansive Barnett Shale field in North Texas. Through these operations, the company produces essential energy resources for the domestic U.S. market, serving the broader energy industry as its primary customer base.
AI Analysis | Feedback
It's like a focused ConocoPhillips for mature oil fields, specializing in enhanced recovery techniques to maximize production.
Think of it as an "oil field landlord," similar to how a smaller Pioneer Natural Resources might meticulously optimize existing properties for long-term value.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Products:
- Crude Oil: A naturally occurring petroleum product extracted from its oil and gas properties.
- Natural Gas: A naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas extracted from its oil and gas properties.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) primarily sells its crude oil and natural gas production to other companies within the energy industry, rather than directly to individuals.
However, the specific names of Evolution Petroleum's major customers are not publicly disclosed in its financial filings or other public statements. Companies operating in the upstream oil and natural gas sector, like EPM, typically sell their commodity products (crude oil and natural gas) to a limited number of purchasers, such as pipeline operators, refiners, and natural gas marketers. While their 10-K reports indicate sales concentration with a few purchasers, these specific entities are not explicitly named in public documents, as is common practice in commodity markets where buyers are generally interchangeable.
Based on the nature of the company's business as an oil and natural gas producer, its major customers would generally fall into the following categories:
- Crude Oil Purchasers: These customers typically include crude oil pipeline operators, independent crude oil marketing companies, or directly to refineries that process crude oil into refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
- Natural Gas Purchasers: These customers are generally natural gas pipeline companies, midstream operators that gather and process natural gas, or large industrial users and utility companies (Local Distribution Companies - LDCs) that distribute natural gas to end-users or for power generation.
These purchasers are typically large, creditworthy companies involved in the transportation, processing, or end-use of hydrocarbons.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- ExxonMobil (XOM)
- Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK)
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Evolution Petroleum (EPM) are primarily associated with the inherent volatility of the oil and natural gas industry, regulatory and environmental pressures on its enhanced oil recovery operations, and its financial structure, including increased debt levels.
- Commodity Price Volatility
Evolution Petroleum's financial performance is highly sensitive to the fluctuating prices of crude oil and natural gas. A significant and sustained decline in these commodity prices, particularly if West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude drops below approximately $60 per barrel, could substantially reduce the company's profit margins and impact the cash flow available for dividends. As a "higher-cost operator," Evolution Petroleum is particularly vulnerable to periods of weak oil prices. The company's earnings have shown sensitivity to commodity prices, with a reported 60% year-over-year decline in Q1 fiscal 2026 due to lower commodity pricing and elevated lease operating costs. - Regulatory and Environmental Pressures, Coupled with Operational Risks of Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)
Evolution Petroleum's operations, particularly its CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects like the Delhi field, are exposed to various risks stemming from climate change concerns. These include potential regulatory changes, political scrutiny, litigation, and financial risks that could lead to increased operating and compliance costs or limit future production areas. The broader oil and gas sector faces increasing pressure to transition to cleaner energy solutions, and CO2-EOR, despite increasing oil production, carries environmental risks, including potential harm to groundwater, surface environments, and local communities, as well as the risk of CO2 leakage. Furthermore, EPM holds non-operating interests, meaning it relies on its partners to execute development and maintenance plans, which can be challenging, especially in aging assets like the Delhi or Hamilton Dome fields that require capital-intensive EOR methods to maintain production. These operations also face specific risks such as equipment degradation, leaks, blowouts, and challenges in managing contaminated fluids. - Financial Risks from Increased Debt and Operating Costs
Evolution Petroleum has recently taken on a notable amount of long-term debt, reported at $53 million as of November 2025, which marks a shift from its historically low-debt position. This increased debt, alongside the company's characterization as a "higher-cost operator," elevates its financial risk, particularly during periods of weak oil prices. The company's main risk category is identified as Finance & Corporate, accounting for a significant portion of its total identified risks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerated adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) threatens demand for petroleum products, directly impacting the oil segment of Evolution Petroleum's business.
The rapid expansion and decreasing costs of grid-scale renewable energy sources (solar, wind) combined with advanced battery storage threaten demand for natural gas, a key product for Evolution Petroleum, particularly in electricity generation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Evolution Petroleum Corporation's addressable markets for its main products and services in the United States are as follows:
-
Upstream Oil and Natural Gas Market (U.S.): The U.S. upstream oil and gas market, which includes exploration and production activities, was approximately USD 102.6 billion in 2025.
-
CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Market (U.S.): The U.S. CO2 enhanced oil recovery market surpassed USD 22 billion in 2024 and is projected to increase to approximately USD 44.25 billion by 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Evolution Petroleum (EPM) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key strategies and market factors:
- Opportunistic Acquisitions: The company's core strategy involves the opportunistic acquisition of undervalued, proven oil and natural gas reserves and assets. Recent examples include acquisitions in the SCOOP/STACK area and TexMex, which have contributed to production growth and are expected to continue to do so. Evolution Petroleum aims to build and maintain a diversified portfolio through such strategic acquisitions.
- Production Optimization and Development of Existing Assets: Evolution Petroleum focuses on maximizing output from its current asset base through methodical production optimization, selective development opportunities, and exploitation efforts. This includes ongoing development activity in fields like Chaveroo and continued work in the SCOOP/STACK play, as well as resolving operational issues to enhance production from existing properties, such as the Delhi Field.
- Growth in Higher-Margin Mineral and Royalty Interests: The company is strategically expanding its portfolio of mineral and royalty interests. Acquisitions in areas like the SCOOP/STACK and Haynesville-Bossier Shale are expected to provide incremental high-margin production and meaningful contributions to revenue and cash flow, leveraging the inherently higher margins associated with these types of assets.
- Favorable Commodity Price Environment, particularly for Natural Gas: While commodity prices are inherently volatile, Evolution Petroleum's diversified portfolio, which includes significant exposure to natural gas (54% natural gas, 15% oil, and 31% natural gas liquids), positions it to benefit from favorable natural gas price trends. Recent financial results indicate that higher realized natural gas prices have contributed positively to revenue and EBITDA, offsetting declines in other commodities, and the company utilizes hedging strategies to manage price risk.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Evolution Petroleum authorized a share repurchase program on September 8, 2022, allowing for repurchases of up to $25.0 million of common stock through December 31, 2024. Under this program, the company repurchased approximately 0.8 million shares at a total cost of around $4.6 million.
- In November 2023, the company initiated a Rule 10b5-1 plan to repurchase up to $0.8 million in shares, which was effective until June 30, 2024. During the nine months ended March 31, 2024, approximately 0.1 million shares were repurchased for about $0.8 million under this plan.
Share Issuance
- For the fiscal year 2025, Evolution Petroleum reported $3.84 million in common stock issuance.
- A director received a restricted stock award of 24,214 shares on December 4, 2025.
- The company acquired treasury stock during the nine months ended March 31, 2025, and 2024, to cover payroll tax withholding obligations for employee stock-based awards.
Outbound Investments
- In March 2025, Evolution Petroleum acquired non-operated oil and natural gas assets in New Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana for $9.0 million, which is expected to add approximately 440 net barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD) of low-decline production.
- After the end of fiscal year 2025, the company made a $17 million acquisition of SCOOP/STACK royalty interests in August 2025.
- The company is expanding its minerals and royalty platform with recent Haynesville Shale acquisitions, which are anticipated to contribute meaningfully starting in fiscal Q3 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Evolution Petroleum's capital expenditures were -$21.64 million for fiscal year 2025, -$49.63 million for fiscal year 2024, -$6.99 million for fiscal year 2023, and -$54.87 million for fiscal year 2022.
- The full-year fiscal 2026 capital expenditure guidance is projected to be between $4 million and $6 million.
- Primary focuses for capital expenditures include operational improvements at Tex-Mex, recovery of Delhi production, and efforts to achieve sustainable cost reductions at Barnett Shale.
Peer Outperformance in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | 11 | 128.2% | 149.7% | 390.4% | MPC 671% · PBF 586% · VLO 549% |
| Integrated Oil & Gas | 7 | 39.9% | 68.9% | 223.1% | IMO 328% · SU 296% · CVE 239% |
| Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation | 18 | 24.2% | 123.4% | 180.6% | INSW 1012% · LPG 887% · TRGP 516% |
| Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | 34 | 36.2% | 24.3% | 93.0% | SEI 1009% · FTI 836% · TDW 577% |
| Coal & Consumable Fuels | 14 | -19.4% | 21.7% | 81.7% | EU 973% · CCJ 309% · LEU 278% |
| Oil & Gas Drilling | 7 | 60.3% | 7.3% | 60.3% | VAL 141% · PDS 110% · NE 85% |
| Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ← | 51 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 55.4% | KGEI 10058% · OBE 6342% · EP 2583% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 213 |
| Op Inc LTM | 70 |
| FCF LTM | -12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -20 |
| CFO LTM | 119 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 96 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 26.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -13.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 33.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 6.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 48.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 49.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -13.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -10.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | -1.5 |
| P/E | -1.4 |
| P/CFO | 2.0 |
| Total Yield | -12.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -10.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -12.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -24.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -30.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -113.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $3.56 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/13/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $3.54 | $3.81 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 0.4% | -6.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 44.6% | 41.7% |
| Downside Capture | -239.16 | -48.74 |
| Upside Capture | -174.90 | -63.17 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -27.9% | -9.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.01 | -1.10 | -1.16 | -1.01 | -0.30 | 0.47 |
| Up Beta | -1.07 | 0.58 | 0.69 | -1.27 | -0.88 | 0.34 |
| Down Beta | 4.82 | 1.11 | 0.49 | 0.59 | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| Up Capture | -155% | -155% | -156% | -79% | -32% | 4% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 35 | 63 | 123 | 373 |
| Down Capture | -163% | -250% | -300% | -211% | -85% | 62% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 20 | 29 | 58 | 116 | 348 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPM | -17.4% | 41.6% | -0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 46.9% | 21.9% | 1.66 | 50.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.8% | 13.0% | 0.92 | -9.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 7.0% | 29.6% | 0.23 | -4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.9% | 20.9% | 1.71 | 38.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.6% | 13.6% | -0.14 | -2.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.1% | 44.3% | -0.68 | 5.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPM | -1.1% | 44.8% | 0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 23.4% | 25.5% | 0.80 | 58.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 25.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.3% | 18.9% | 0.78 | 9.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.0% | 19.6% | 0.39 | 43.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.8% | -0.06 | 21.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.9% | 52.2% | 0.45 | 12.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPM | 0.5% | 50.2% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.8% | 29.6% | 0.40 | 59.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 36.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.4% | 0.57 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 42.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.1% | 20.7% | 0.16 | 32.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.0% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 9.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/24/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/15/2026 | -1.6% | 2.4% | |
| 5/12/2026 | -12.1% | -1.3% | -11.3% |
| 2/10/2026 | 5.5% | 13.0% | 19.0% |
| 11/12/2025 | -4.4% | -11.5% | -10.9% |
| 9/16/2025 | -0.5% | -8.8% | -12.4% |
| 5/13/2025 | 1.1% | -2.5% | 16.1% |
| 2/11/2025 | -1.3% | -1.7% | -5.3% |
| 11/12/2024 | 4.0% | 7.1% | 2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 12.3% | 17.6% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -2.5% | -10.9% |
| Max Positive | 19.4% | 26.4% | 45.8% |
| Max Negative | -20.9% | -23.2% | -27.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/15/2026 | -1.6% | 2.4% | |
| 5/12/2026 | -12.1% | -1.3% | -11.3% |
| 2/10/2026 | 5.5% | 13.0% | 19.0% |
| 11/12/2025 | -4.4% | -11.5% | -10.9% |
| 9/16/2025 | -0.5% | -8.8% | -12.4% |
| 5/13/2025 | 1.1% | -2.5% | 16.1% |
| 2/11/2025 | -1.3% | -1.7% | -5.3% |
| 11/12/2024 | 4.0% | 7.1% | 2.7% |
| 9/10/2024 | 16.2% | 23.5% | 22.2% |
| 5/7/2024 | 2.7% | -0.2% | -2.2% |
| 2/6/2024 | 3.7% | 3.9% | 14.5% |
| 11/7/2023 | -5.7% | -3.2% | -2.3% |
| 9/12/2023 | -20.9% | -23.2% | -27.3% |
| 5/9/2023 | 9.2% | 12.3% | 30.5% |
| 2/7/2023 | 2.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% |
| 11/8/2022 | -11.2% | -7.6% | -20.3% |
| 9/13/2022 | 19.4% | 17.7% | 14.6% |
| 2/10/2022 | 8.4% | 16.6% | 12.5% |
| 5/11/2021 | -3.6% | -2.1% | 26.9% |
| 2/4/2021 | -4.0% | -1.4% | 24.3% |
| 11/9/2020 | 9.7% | 26.4% | 45.8% |
| 9/11/2020 | 3.5% | 3.9% | -3.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 12.3% | 17.6% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -2.5% | -10.9% |
| Max Positive | 19.4% | 26.4% | 45.8% |
| Max Negative | -20.9% | -23.2% | -27.3% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 9/15/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Dividends | Reported | 0.12 | ||||||
| 2027 SCOOP/STACK Expected Gross Working-Interest Wells Brought Online | Reported | 10 | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Incremental Production | Reported | 100 | ||||||
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Derivative Contracts | Reported | |||||||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 11/12/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Cash Dividend | Reported | 0.12 | 0 | Same New | Actual: 0.12 for Q1 2026 | |||
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.