Tearsheet

Evolution Petroleum (EPM)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $4.08 | Market Cap: $136.9 Mil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Evolution Petroleum (EPM)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $4.08
Market Cap: $136.9 Mil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.9%, FCF Yield is 8.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 93x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Sustainable Resource Management, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.9%, FCF Yield is 8.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Sustainable Resource Management, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 93x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

EPM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the -13.8% movement in Evolution Petroleum (EPM) stock from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025: 1. Lower Realized Oil and NGL Prices impacting Q1 Fiscal Year 2026 Revenue.

Evolution Petroleum's Q1 fiscal year 2026 results, reported on November 11, 2025, indicated that lower realized oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) prices, which were down 14% and 8% respectively, were the primary drivers behind a modest year-over-year decline in total revenue. 2. Q1 Fiscal Year 2026 Revenue Miss and Analyst Concerns.

Despite the company beating EPS forecasts, EPM's stock price saw a 3.05% decrease following its Q1 fiscal year 2026 earnings release on November 11, 2025. This downturn was largely attributed to investor concerns over a revenue miss, with total revenue reaching $21.3 million against $21.9 million in the same period last year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EPM Return-45%86%59%-17%-2%-16%10%
Peers Return-33%30%67%-12%-17%29%40%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EPM Win Rate33%58%67%42%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate38%52%58%43%27%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EPM Max Drawdown-59%-4%0%-27%-17%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-75%-16%-1%-30%-29%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DK, WTI, INDO, COP, CNQ. See EPM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEPMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven160.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven558 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-58.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven142.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-84.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven552.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven777 days1480 days

Compare to DK, WTI, INDO, COP, CNQ


In The Past

Evolution Petroleum's stock fell -42.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/3/2023. A -42.7% loss requires a 74.6% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Evolution Petroleum (EPM)

Better Bets than Evolution Petroleum (EPM)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EPM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.8%8.8%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.3%4.3%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.3%24.3%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%1.4%-5.7%
SLB_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025SLBSLBDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.5%16.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.8%8.8%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.3%4.3%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.3%24.3%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%1.4%-5.7%
SLB_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025SLBSLBDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.5%16.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Evolution Petroleum

Financials

EPMDKWTIINDOCOPCNQMedian
NameEvolutio.Delek US W&T Offs.Indonesi.ConocoPh.Canadian. 
Mkt Price4.0739.961.882.7688.7233.3318.70
Mkt Cap0.12.40.3-110.569.62.4
Rev LTM8610,667500-59,78844,52110,667
Op Inc LTM4-59-51-12,5499,0224
FCF LTM11-741-7-7,0888,12411
FCF 3Y Avg9-215-5-8,9108,2849
CFO LTM33-13047-19,93514,77047
CFO 3Y Avg3623080-20,72013,874230

Growth & Margins

EPMDKWTIINDOCOPCNQMedian
NameEvolutio.Delek US W&T Offs.Indonesi.ConocoPh.Canadian. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.0%-20.5%-6.9%-8.2%8.3%-0.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.1%-17.2%-16.7%--6.6%-2.4%-6.6%
Rev Chg Q-0.6%-5.1%5.1%-15.3%6.4%5.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.1%-1.4%1.2%-3.4%1.5%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM4.9%-0.6%-10.1%-21.0%20.3%4.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg16.4%-0.2%-0.1%-24.1%21.9%16.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.2%3.9%1.4%--1.0%-4.3%-1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM38.5%-1.2%9.4%-33.3%33.2%33.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.0%1.3%14.5%-35.6%32.8%32.8%
FCF/Rev LTM13.3%-6.9%-1.4%-11.9%18.2%11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.5%-2.2%-0.9%-15.3%19.6%4.5%

Valuation

EPMDKWTIINDOCOPCNQMedian
NameEvolutio.Delek US W&T Offs.Indonesi.ConocoPh.Canadian. 
Mkt Cap0.12.40.3-110.569.62.4
P/S1.60.20.6-1.81.61.6
P/EBIT28.2-13.1-4.5-7.67.97.6
P/E92.7-4.7-1.9-12.510.510.5
P/CFO4.1-18.45.9-5.54.74.7
Total Yield13.0%-18.8%-50.2%-11.5%16.4%11.5%
Dividend Yield12.0%2.6%2.1%-3.5%6.8%3.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.3%-12.2%-1.6%-6.9%12.0%2.3%
D/E0.31.41.3-0.20.20.3
Net D/E0.31.10.8-0.20.20.3

Returns

EPMDKWTIINDOCOPCNQMedian
NameEvolutio.Delek US W&T Offs.Indonesi.ConocoPh.Canadian. 
1M Rtn-10.2%18.4%-10.0%2.2%3.5%10.6%2.9%
3M Rtn-17.4%75.7%8.0%-2.8%-4.7%13.4%2.6%
6M Rtn-4.2%118.5%31.3%19.5%-0.1%12.0%15.7%
12M Rtn-23.6%125.5%-3.7%2.2%-18.3%6.1%-0.7%
3Y Rtn-32.8%34.2%-72.5%-56.7%-23.3%29.0%-28.0%
1M Excs Rtn-10.3%18.3%-10.2%2.1%3.4%10.5%2.8%
3M Excs Rtn-18.2%71.3%7.8%-2.6%-8.6%11.2%2.6%
6M Excs Rtn-16.1%106.6%19.4%7.6%-12.0%0.1%3.8%
12M Excs Rtn-33.6%110.3%-17.5%-16.6%-29.4%-6.2%-17.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-102.2%-29.1%-142.1%-127.7%-92.2%-42.2%-97.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,544,467
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-2.0%
Average Daily Volume302,241
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.11
Basic Shares Quantity33,551,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.6%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/16/2025-0.5%-10.9%-14.4%
5/13/20251.1%-2.5%16.1%
2/11/2025-1.3%-1.7%-5.3%
9/10/202416.2%23.5%22.2%
5/7/20242.7%-0.2%-2.2%
2/6/20243.7%3.9%14.5%
9/12/2023-20.9%-23.2%-27.3%
5/9/20239.2%12.3%30.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11911
# Negative8108
Median Positive7.5%11.4%18.1%
Median Negative-3.8%-2.3%-13.6%
Max Positive16.2%26.4%45.8%
Max Negative-20.9%-23.2%-27.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025917202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024911202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023207202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023913202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022914202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021210202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211110202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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