Tearsheet

Evolution Petroleum (EPM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.19 | Market Cap: $140.6 Mil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Evolution Petroleum (EPM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.19
Market Cap: $140.6 Mil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 7.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Sustainable Resource Management, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 7.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Sustainable Resource Management, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EPM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Evolution Petroleum (EPM) experienced a notable decline in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this downward movement.

1. Weaker-Than-Expected Q1 2026 Results and Declining Net Income. Evolution Petroleum's stock fell significantly in November 2025 after reporting underwhelming fiscal Q1 2026 results on November 11, 2025. The company fell short of expectations on both earnings and revenue, with net income declining by 60% year-over-year. This performance contributed to an 11.55% drop in share price between November 11 and November 18, 2025.

2. Lower Realized Crude Oil Prices and Higher Operating Costs. The decline in net income for Q1 2026 was primarily driven by lower realized pricing for crude oil and increased lease operating costs. These factors directly impacted the company's profitability and cash flow.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EPM Return-45%86%59%-17%-2%-19%7%
Peers Return-42%56%70%-2%-17%25%58%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EPM Win Rate33%58%67%42%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate40%57%65%48%32%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EPM Max Drawdown-59%-4%0%-27%-17%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-72%-4%0%-23%-25%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DK, WTI, BSM, COP, CNQ. See EPM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEPMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven160.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven558 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-58.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven142.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-84.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven552.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven777 days1480 days

Compare to DK, WTI, BSM, COP, CNQ


In The Past

Evolution Petroleum's stock fell -42.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/3/2023. A -42.7% loss requires a 74.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Evolution Petroleum (EPM)

Better Bets than Evolution Petroleum (EPM)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EPM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Evolution Petroleum

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EPMDKWTIBSMCOPCNQMedian
NameEvolutio.Delek US W&T Offs.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian. 
Mkt Price4.1338.131.79-91.8134.1334.13
Mkt Cap0.12.30.3-114.371.32.3
Rev LTM8610,66750043159,78844,5215,584
Op Inc LTM4-59-5127812,5499,022141
FCF LTM11-741-72247,0888,124118
FCF 3Y Avg9-215-53718,9108,284190
CFO LTM33-1304733619,93514,770192
CFO 3Y Avg362308043720,72013,874333

Growth & Margins

EPMDKWTIBSMCOPCNQMedian
NameEvolutio.Delek US W&T Offs.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.0%-20.5%-6.9%-8.5%8.2%8.3%-3.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.1%-17.2%-16.7%-16.4%-6.6%-2.4%-11.5%
Rev Chg Q-0.6%-5.1%5.1%1.9%15.3%6.4%3.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.1%-1.4%1.2%0.5%3.4%1.5%0.9%
Op Mgn LTM4.9%-0.6%-10.1%64.3%21.0%20.3%12.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg16.4%-0.2%-0.1%66.2%24.1%21.9%19.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.2%3.9%1.4%1.0%-1.0%-4.3%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM38.5%-1.2%9.4%77.9%33.3%33.2%33.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.0%1.3%14.5%88.7%35.6%32.8%33.9%
FCF/Rev LTM13.3%-6.9%-1.4%52.0%11.9%18.2%12.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.5%-2.2%-0.9%73.9%15.3%19.6%9.9%

Valuation

EPMDKWTIBSMCOPCNQMedian
NameEvolutio.Delek US W&T Offs.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian. 
Mkt Cap0.12.30.3-114.371.32.3
P/S1.80.20.5-2.01.51.5
P/EBIT32.6-10.6-4.4-8.17.67.6
P/E107.1-3.8-1.8-13.310.010.0
P/CFO4.8-14.95.8-5.94.54.8
Total Yield11.3%-23.3%-51.9%-10.8%17.1%10.8%
Dividend Yield10.4%3.2%2.2%-3.3%7.1%3.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.3%-12.2%-1.6%-6.9%12.0%2.3%
D/E0.21.71.3-0.20.30.3
Net D/E0.21.40.8-0.10.30.3

Returns

EPMDKWTIBSMCOPCNQMedian
NameEvolutio.Delek US W&T Offs.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian. 
1M Rtn-6.6%-2.0%-13.1%-4.6%6.8%-2.0%
3M Rtn-15.1%20.2%1.7%--2.1%10.7%1.7%
6M Rtn-6.8%108.6%13.1%-8.7%13.4%13.1%
12M Rtn-22.6%110.2%-3.0%--10.4%5.1%-3.0%
3Y Rtn-26.8%50.7%-71.1%--16.5%31.6%-16.5%
1M Excs Rtn-6.5%-1.9%-13.0%-4.7%6.8%-1.9%
3M Excs Rtn-22.3%14.8%-6.5%--8.6%4.9%-6.5%
6M Excs Rtn-21.5%93.9%-1.6%--6.0%-1.4%-1.6%
12M Excs Rtn-36.3%97.1%-19.0%--25.9%-7.2%-19.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-101.1%-38.3%-144.8%--90.4%-39.2%-90.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,491,344
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.4%
Average Daily Volume370,686
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.02
Basic Shares Quantity33,551,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025917202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024911202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023207202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023913202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022914202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021210202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211110202110-Q 9/30/2021