Tearsheet

Evolution Petroleum (EPM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.735 | Market Cap: $126.0 Mil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Evolution Petroleum (EPM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.735
Market Cap: $126.0 Mil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 541x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.8%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.1%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Sustainable Resource Management, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more.
  Key risks
EPM key risks include [1] its reliance on third-party operators, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Sustainable Resource Management, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 541x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.8%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.1%
8 Key risks
EPM key risks include [1] its reliance on third-party operators, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EPM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Evolution Petroleum (EPM) reported downbeat quarterly sales and a slight earnings miss for its fiscal first quarter 2026 on November 11, 2025, which contributed to a fall in shares.

2. EPM's share price experienced a significant decline of 9.69% between September 18 and September 25, 2025, attributed by some to profit-taking by investors.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EPM Return-45%86%59%-17%-2%-21%5%
Peers Return-57%151%2502%-13%-7%-27%1575%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EPM Win Rate33%58%67%42%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate35%47%62%33%48%37% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EPM Max Drawdown-59%-4%0%-27%-17%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-76%-1%-2%-34%-23%-47% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NOG, AMPY, EP, SD, REI. See EPM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEPMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven160.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven558 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-58.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven142.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-84.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven552.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven777 days1,480 days

Compare to DK, WTI, BSM, COP, CNQ


In The Past

Evolution Petroleum's stock fell -42.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/3/2023. A -42.7% loss requires a 74.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Evolution Petroleum (EPM)

Better Bets than Evolution Petroleum (EPM)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EPM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Evolution Petroleum

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EPMNOGAMPYEPSDREIMedian
NameEvolutio.Northern.Amplify .Empire P.SandRidg.Ring Ene. 
Mkt Price3.7222.624.693.1514.100.854.21
Mkt Cap0.12.20.20.10.50.20.2
Rev LTM852,19327637156324216
Op Inc LTM26935-16528728
FCF LTM-6-141-23-1940-29-21
FCF 3Y Avg-1-31326-29602010
CFO LTM331,48375-109415385
CFO 3Y Avg321,35790-19618793

Growth & Margins

EPMNOGAMPYEPSDREIMedian
NameEvolutio.Northern.Amplify .Empire P.SandRidg.Ring Ene. 
Rev Chg LTM-2.2%1.5%-9.5%-15.1%29.7%-15.4%-5.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-12.8%5.9%-14.7%-10.0%-10.8%2.7%-10.4%
Rev Chg Q-2.8%-5.7%-5.0%-13.9%32.5%-11.9%-5.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.7%-1.3%-1.2%-3.9%6.7%-3.2%-1.3%
Op Mgn LTM2.6%31.6%1.8%-43.9%33.3%27.0%14.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.8%39.6%13.7%-31.6%37.4%36.0%24.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.2%-2.9%-3.2%-0.8%1.9%-2.7%-2.5%
CFO/Rev LTM39.0%67.6%27.2%-26.7%60.6%47.4%43.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg34.6%65.9%29.5%-2.8%64.1%52.5%43.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-7.1%-6.4%-8.5%-49.8%25.5%-8.9%-7.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.3%-17.1%7.4%-69.2%40.8%5.0%0.9%

Valuation

EPMNOGAMPYEPSDREIMedian
NameEvolutio.Northern.Amplify .Empire P.SandRidg.Ring Ene. 
Mkt Cap0.12.20.20.10.50.20.2
P/S1.51.10.82.92.70.71.3
P/EBIT38.85.8-8.4-6.76.99.86.4
P/E540.813.3-7.6-6.26.3-13.90.0
P/CFO3.81.62.8-10.84.41.52.2
Total Yield13.3%14.6%-13.1%-16.1%19.9%-7.2%3.1%
Dividend Yield13.1%7.1%0.0%0.0%3.9%0.0%1.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.8%-9.0%8.1%-16.7%12.2%4.2%1.2%
D/E0.41.00.60.20.01.90.5
Net D/E0.41.00.60.1-0.21.90.5

Returns

EPMNOGAMPYEPSDREIMedian
NameEvolutio.Northern.Amplify .Empire P.SandRidg.Ring Ene. 
1M Rtn-5.8%3.5%-11.3%7.1%-1.0%-9.1%-3.4%
3M Rtn-28.3%-11.1%6.6%-22.2%22.4%-18.6%-14.8%
6M Rtn-21.9%-25.3%26.4%-45.2%19.0%-0.8%-11.3%
12M Rtn-21.5%-37.7%-23.4%-50.2%33.7%-35.2%-29.3%
3Y Rtn-31.6%-17.7%-36.1%-71.4%12.2%-61.3%-33.8%
1M Excs Rtn-6.6%2.7%-12.1%6.4%-1.7%-9.8%-4.1%
3M Excs Rtn-29.7%-13.8%3.3%-24.7%22.6%-19.9%-16.9%
6M Excs Rtn-34.3%-37.7%14.0%-57.6%6.6%-13.2%-23.7%
12M Excs Rtn-36.2%-52.2%-36.3%-63.6%18.9%-49.6%-42.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-97.2%-87.8%-102.4%-141.4%-59.9%-131.7%-99.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Crude oil5351532629
Natural gas22643930
Natural gas liquids11141741
Total861291093330


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,709,262
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202514.6%
Average Daily Volume442,752
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.86
Basic Shares Quantity33,725,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/16/2025-0.5%-8.8%-12.4%
5/13/20251.1%-2.5%16.1%
2/11/2025-1.3%-1.7%-5.3%
9/10/202416.2%23.5%22.2%
5/7/20242.7%-0.2%-2.2%
2/6/20243.7%3.9%14.5%
9/12/2023-20.9%-23.2%-27.3%
5/9/20239.2%12.3%30.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11911
# Negative8108
Median Positive7.5%11.4%18.1%
Median Negative-3.8%-2.3%-12.6%
Max Positive16.2%26.4%45.8%
Max Negative-20.9%-23.2%-27.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251112202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025917202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024911202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023207202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023913202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022914202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021210202210-Q 12/31/2021