Comerica (CMA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $83.1 | Market Cap: $10.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Comerica (CMA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $83.1Market Cap: $10.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 4.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 70x |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -132% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -34% | Capital ratio is below minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 5.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | ||
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 16% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Wealth Management Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 4.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -132% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Wealth Management Technology, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 70x |
| Capital ratio is below minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 5.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CMA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Comerica (CMA) experienced a significant period of activity between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, which contributed to its stock movement.
1. Acquisition by Fifth Third Bancorp: Fifth Third Bancorp announced its acquisition of Comerica, a major development that led to changes in Comerica's outlook and an upgrade in its stock rating by Evercore ISI from Underperform to In Line, with a raised price target of $88.00. This acquisition is expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2026.
2. Strong Second and Third Quarter 2025 Earnings: Comerica reported a strong second quarter of 2025 with a 14% increase in earnings per share, reaching $1.42. The company also reported its third quarter 2025 earnings on October 17, 2025, with an EPS of $1.35, beating the consensus estimate by $0.07. These positive earnings reports, along with stable net interest income and an increase in average and period-end loans, likely boosted investor confidence.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CMA Return | -17% | 62% | -20% | -11% | 17% | 35% | 50% |
| Peers Return | -18% | 27% | -15% | 10% | 28% | 21% | 50% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CMA Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 47% | 35% | 42% | 48% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CMA Max Drawdown | -63% | -1% | -24% | -53% | -16% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -3% | -23% | -16% | -4% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BAC, WFC, C, USB, AVBC. See CMA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CMA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 224.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 175.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 314 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 415.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2827 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BAC, WFC, C, USB, AVBC
In The Past
Comerica's stock fell -69.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -69.2% loss requires a 224.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CMA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Comerica
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 68.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 194.3 |
| Rev LTM | 55,357 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 8 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,172 |
| CFO LTM | 61 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,172 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -3.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 194.3 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.6 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | 9.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | -1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -13.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Bank | 2,654 | 2,368 | 2,237 | 2,162 | 2,210 |
| Retail Bank | 965 | 802 | 688 | 613 | 700 |
| Wealth Management | 515 | 497 | 445 | 430 | 453 |
| Other | 114 | 3 | 27 | 36 | 68 |
| Finance | -656 | -136 | -430 | -329 | -82 |
| Total | 3,592 | 3,534 | 2,967 | 2,912 | 3,349 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Bank | 1,116 | 1,057 | 1,329 | 668 | 1,021 |
| Retail Bank | 176 | 79 | 43 | 2 | 83 |
| Wealth Management | 90 | 106 | 124 | 78 | 140 |
| Other | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| Finance | -505 | -98 | -331 | -253 | -57 |
| Total | 881 | 1,151 | 1,168 | 497 | 1,198 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10282024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10302023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |