Cipher Mining (CIFR)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $15.12 | Market Cap: $5.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
Cipher Mining (CIFR)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $15.12Market Cap: $5.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -142 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -69% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Power Grid. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 29x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 257%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 213% | ||
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -88%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -253% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 156% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.3% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 114% | ||
| Key risksCIFR key risks include [1] escalating net losses that raise significant questions about the long-term profitability and sustainability of its business model and [2] a heavy operational concentration in Texas, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Power Grid. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -142 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -69% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 29x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 257%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 213% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -88%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -253% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 156% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.3% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 114% |
| Key risksCIFR key risks include [1] escalating net losses that raise significant questions about the long-term profitability and sustainability of its business model and [2] a heavy operational concentration in Texas, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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Cipher Mining substantially increased its operational mining capacity and hash rate, notably with the full deployment of its Black Pearl data center in the third quarter of 2025. This expansion drove a 40% increase in the company's self-mining hash rate to 23.6 exahashes per second (EH/s) by the end of Q3 2025, a significant boost from 16.8 EH/s in the prior quarter. The company also continued its strategic growth, with plans to reach approximately 35.0 EH/s by year-end 2025.
2. Strategic Diversification into High-Performance Computing (HPC) and AI Hosting.
A key driver for stock movement was Cipher Mining's successful diversification into high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) hosting. In the third quarter of 2025, the company secured a substantial 15-year, $5.5 billion lease with AWS for AI data centers, significantly expanding its total hosting contracts to $8.5 billion. This strategic pivot was reflected in HPC hosting revenues accounting for 11% of total revenue in Q2 2025, up from less than 2% a year prior.
3. Strong Financial Performance Exceeding Market Expectations.
Cipher Mining demonstrated robust financial performance, reporting a significant 197.5% increase in revenue to $71.7 million in Q3 2025, driven by higher Bitcoin prices and the full operational output from its Black Pearl facility. The company also announced strong Q4 2024 financial results in February 2025, with net earnings of $18 million ($0.05 per diluted share) and adjusted earnings of $51 million ($0.14 per diluted share), which surpassed analyst estimates.
4. Major Capital Raises and Infrastructure Investments.
In November 2025, Cipher Mining secured substantial funding by pricing a $1.4 billion offering of 7.125% senior secured notes due 2030. The proceeds from this offering were earmarked to finance a portion of the construction costs for the Barber Lake Facility, a new high-performance computing data center. This significant investment signals strong confidence in the company's future growth and infrastructure development.
5. Positive Bitcoin Price Momentum and Evolving Industry Dynamics.
The overall upward trend in Bitcoin prices contributed to Cipher Mining's improved revenue, as explicitly noted in its Q3 2025 earnings report. While the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 presented challenges for some miners, leading to a focus on efficiency and diversification, Cipher Mining continued to expand its operations and leverage strategic opportunities, distinguishing itself within the volatile cryptocurrency mining sector. Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.4% change in CIFR stock from 9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 30.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 9282025 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.47 | 15.19 | 32.43% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 158.85 | 206.45 | 29.97% |
| P/S Multiple | 27.08 | 28.93 | 6.82% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 375.05 | 393.19 | -4.84% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.12% |
Market Drivers
9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CIFR | 32.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 49.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.3% | 34.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 256.6% change in CIFR stock from 6/29/2025 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 186.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 6292025 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.26 | 15.19 | 256.57% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 152.09 | 206.45 | 35.74% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.10 | 28.93 | 186.49% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 360.51 | 393.19 | -9.06% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 253.64% |
Market Drivers
6/29/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CIFR | 256.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 37.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.4% | 28.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 212.6% change in CIFR stock from 12/28/2024 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 172.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 12282024 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.86 | 15.19 | 212.55% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 152.47 | 206.45 | 35.41% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.60 | 28.93 | 172.80% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 332.68 | 393.19 | -18.19% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 202.21% |
Market Drivers
12/28/2024 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CIFR | 212.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.0% | 48.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 15.3% | 37.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3284.6% change in CIFR stock from 12/29/2022 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 9.2233720368547763E17% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12292022 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 0.45 | 15.19 | 3284.58% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 206.45 | ∞% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | 28.93 | -100.00% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 247.51 | 393.19 | -58.86% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
12/29/2023 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CIFR | 267.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 44.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 51.8% | 39.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CIFR Return | 2% | -53% | -88% | 637% | 12% | 250% | 66% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CIFR Win Rate | 100% | 50% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CIFR Max Drawdown | 0% | -55% | -91% | 0% | -45% | -55% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CIFR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3422.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,010 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -0.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 0.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 148 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
Cipher Mining's stock fell -97.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/16/2021. A -97.2% loss requires a 3422.6% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Cipher Mining:- Like a Tesla Gigafactory, but instead of producing electric vehicles, they're producing Bitcoin.
- A digital version of a gold mining company like Newmont, but they "mine" Bitcoin with computers.
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- Bitcoin Mining: Operating large-scale data centers with specialized computer hardware to validate transactions on the Bitcoin network and earn newly minted Bitcoin.
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Cipher Mining (CIFR): Major Customers
Cipher Mining (CIFR) operates primarily as a Bitcoin mining company. Unlike traditional businesses that sell a tangible product or service to specific customers via contracts, Cipher Mining generates revenue by mining Bitcoin and then selling it into the global cryptocurrency market, or holding it. Therefore, it does not have "major customers" in the traditional business-to-business (B2B) sense where it enters into direct sales agreements with specific companies to purchase its mined Bitcoin. Instead, Cipher Mining's "customers" are the participants in the broader cryptocurrency market who purchase Bitcoin on exchanges. The company sells its mined Bitcoin into this liquid market. Therefore, the demand for Bitcoin, which Cipher Mining helps supply, comes from a diverse set of market participants. The company primarily sells a commodity (Bitcoin) into a global market, which is composed of millions of entities. Based on the nature of this market, we can describe the categories of ultimate buyers (customers) who create the demand for Bitcoin:- Individual Retail Investors and Traders: This category includes millions of individuals worldwide who buy Bitcoin through cryptocurrency exchanges for investment, speculation, transactional use, or as a store of value.
- Institutional Investors and Corporations: This category encompasses investment funds, asset managers, hedge funds, and public or private corporations that acquire Bitcoin for their portfolios, treasury reserves, or as part of their broader financial strategies. Examples of public companies that hold significant Bitcoin reserves include MicroStrategy (symbol: MSTR). While they do not buy directly from Cipher, their demand drives the market where Cipher sells its Bitcoin.
- Cryptocurrency Exchanges and Brokers: While these entities act as platforms for selling Bitcoin, they also represent a point where demand aggregates. They facilitate trades for the ultimate buyers (individuals and institutions) and may also hold reserves themselves to ensure liquidity.
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- Bitmain Technologies Ltd.
- MicroBT Technology Co., Ltd.
- Lancium, LLC
- Windon LLC
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Tyler Page, Chief Executive Officer
Tyler Page is the CEO and founder of Cipher Mining. Prior to founding Cipher, he was responsible for business development and strategic planning for the Bitfury Group. He brings over 20 years of experience in institutional finance and fintech, having held senior roles at New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), Stone Ridge Asset Management, Guggenheim Partners, Goldman Sachs, and Lehman Brothers. He was a day-one employee at NYDIG in 2017 and a co-founder of a crypto business that provided custodian trading execution advisory services and asset management. Cipher Mining went public in 2021 through a business combination with SPAC Good Works Acquisition, a $2 billion deal, and raised approximately $400 million of equity capital with anchor investors including Morgan Stanley and Fidelity. He began his career as an attorney at Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP.
Gregory Mumford, Chief Financial Officer
Gregory Mumford is the Chief Financial Officer of Cipher Mining, with his appointment effective October 14, 2025. He previously served as a senior investment banker in the Digital Assets & Infrastructure Investment Banking group at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, where he advised on a range of M&A and capital markets transactions. He possesses more than a decade of corporate finance and leadership experience, having started his career at one of Canada's largest banks, providing advice on complex credit solutions.
Will Iwaschuk, Co-President & Chief Legal Officer
Will Iwaschuk serves as Co-President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary of Cipher Mining. He shares responsibility for the company's day-to-day operations, focusing on corporate aspects. Before joining Cipher, he was a partner at Tower Research Capital, where he was the global General Counsel and Corporate Secretary, and a member of the Board and the Management Committee. He has over 20 years of financial services experience, including roles as a partner at Morgan Lewis & Bockius and in the legal department at Goldman Sachs. He began his career as an attorney at Davis Polk & Wardwell.
Patrick Kelly, Co-President & Chief Operating Officer
Patrick Kelly is the Co-President & Chief Operating Officer of Cipher Mining. Prior to Cipher, he was Chief Operating Officer and co-founder of Stone Ridge Asset Management, where he oversaw operations, technology, and accounting, and served as Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer for the Stone Ridge Trusts. He was also a member of Atalaya Capital Management's Advisory board, managing the development of Funding Path, a proprietary technology for B2B payments. His career began at Citadel, and he has held leadership roles at Magnetar Capital and D.E. Shaw & Co.
John Franceski, Chief Accounting Officer
John Franceski is the Chief Accounting Officer of Cipher Mining. Before joining Cipher, he was the Controller of New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), where he was responsible for finance and accounting. He brings over 15 years of experience in financial services and fintech. He started his career at PricewaterhouseCoopers and held various positions at Stone Ridge Asset Management, Eton Park Capital Management, and Moore Capital Management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Cipher Mining (CIFR) are primarily driven by the volatile nature of its core business and the capital-intensive requirements of its operations.
- Bitcoin Price Volatility: Over 70% of Cipher Mining's revenue is directly tied to the price of Bitcoin, exposing the company to significant crypto-market volatility. A sustained decline in Bitcoin prices could substantially reduce the company's income, potentially leading to operational losses if prices fall below the cost of production. This market dependency may also force the sale of more mined coins to cover operational expenses.
- Profitability Concerns and Escalating Losses: Despite experiencing revenue growth, Cipher Mining has reported escalating GAAP net losses, with Q2 2025 showing a net loss of approximately $46 million. These increasing losses are attributed to factors such as rising depreciation and amortization expenses, financial costs, and fair-value adjustments for power purchase agreements. This trend raises significant questions about the company's long-term profitability and the sustainability of its business model.
- Regulatory and Environmental Scrutiny: As Bitcoin mining is an energy-intensive activity, Cipher Mining faces increasing scrutiny from government regulators regarding its environmental impact. This could lead to potential regulatory actions, such as restrictions on electricity suppliers, increased taxes on energy used for mining, or even partial or full bans on mining operations. The company's concentrated operations in Texas also expose it to state-specific regulatory and market risks.
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Vertical Integration by Energy Companies
Major energy companies, possessing proprietary access to low-cost electricity generation and infrastructure, are increasingly exploring or directly engaging in Bitcoin mining. This represents a significant emerging threat to dedicated mining companies like Cipher Mining. These energy giants can leverage their existing assets, such as flare gas from oil and gas operations or excess capacity from power plants, to mine Bitcoin at a significantly lower marginal cost than independent miners who must purchase electricity at market rates. Examples include ExxonMobil piloting Bitcoin mining with flare gas. This shift could lead to a structural disadvantage for traditional miners, as energy companies could achieve greater economies of scale and efficiency by integrating mining into their core operations, effectively becoming both a supplier and a competitor.
Mounting Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Pressure and Regulation
The energy consumption of Bitcoin mining continues to face intense scrutiny from environmental groups, regulators, and investors. This emerging threat could manifest in several ways: increased regulatory restrictions, higher energy costs specifically targeting mining operations, or mandates to exclusively use renewable energy sources, which might not always be the most cost-effective. While Cipher Mining emphasizes its focus on sustainable energy, the broader trend could lead to unfavorable policy changes, such as new taxes, energy surcharges, or outright moratoriums/bans on proof-of-work mining in certain jurisdictions (as seen in some regions globally). Such measures could significantly increase operational costs, limit growth opportunities, and put pressure on profitability.
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Cipher Mining (CIFR) operates primarily in two addressable markets: Bitcoin mining and High-Performance Computing (HPC) / data center hosting services.
Bitcoin Mining
The global Bitcoin miner market was valued at approximately USD 14.17 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 94.14 billion by 2033, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.7% during this period. North America holds a significant share of the global cryptocurrency mining market, accounting for 37.69% of the overall market. The U.S. alone contributes over 50% of global annual hardware installations in the Bitcoin miner market.
High-Performance Computing (HPC) / Data Center Hosting Services
Cipher Mining is actively diversifying into HPC hosting services, particularly for Artificial Intelligence (AI) workloads, by leveraging its industrial-scale data centers. The demand for AI workloads is rapidly expanding, with AI projected to surpass Bitcoin in energy consumption by late 2025. By 2030, AI data centers are projected to consume 156 gigawatts (GW) globally, indicating a substantial addressable market for the infrastructure and energy provision that Cipher Mining offers. Cipher Mining has secured significant contracts in this space, including approximately $8.5 billion in total lease payments from AI hosting agreements with companies like Amazon Web Services, Fluidstack, and Google.
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Here are the 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Cipher Mining (CIFR) over the next 2-3 years:- Strategic Pivot and Expansion into AI/HPC Data Center Hosting: Cipher Mining is undergoing a significant strategic transformation from primarily Bitcoin mining to high-performance computing (HPC) and AI data center hosting. This is a major new revenue stream, highlighted by substantial agreements such as a 15-year lease with Amazon Web Services (AWS) valued at approximately $5.5 billion to provide 300 MW of AI capacity starting in 2026. Additionally, the company has secured a 10-year lease with Fluidstack, backed by Google, representing about $3.0 billion in minimum contracted revenue. This shift capitalizes on the unprecedented demand for AI computing infrastructure.
- Significant Increase in Data Center Capacity through Development Pipeline: The company has an ambitious development pipeline for its data center infrastructure. Key projects include the Colchis site, expected to energize in 2028 with 1 GW of capacity, and the Stingray project, set for Q4 2026 with 100 MW. Further plans encompass Reveille (70 MW) and the "3 M's" projects (Mikeska, Milsing, and McLennan), collectively targeting 1,500 MW for 2028-2029, alongside an additional 500 MW expansion at Barber Lake in 2029 and beyond. This substantial growth in available megawatts will directly translate to increased hosting revenue.
- Continued Growth and Optimization of Bitcoin Mining Operations: Despite diversifying into AI/HPC, Cipher Mining continues to expand its Bitcoin mining capabilities. The company reported substantial growth in Q3 2025, with revenue driven by higher Bitcoin prices and increased production, particularly from the newly energized Black Pearl facility. The self-mining hashrate reached approximately 23.6 EH/s by the end of Q3 2025, a 40% increase from the previous quarter, enabling the mining of approximately 689 Bitcoin during the quarter, a 35% increase. The company also plans for Black Pearl Phase 2 to be convertible for both Bitcoin mining and HPC compute.
- Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Favorable Power Contracts: While not a direct revenue driver in itself, improved operational efficiency and securing low-cost power contracts are critical for increasing profitability and competitiveness, which in turn supports revenue growth. The company's focus on building out its mining infrastructure with a low-cost energy strategy is positioning it for future growth. Management has emphasized being a low-cost, efficient operator, with an all-in weighted average power cost of $0.031 per kilowatt-hour reported in Q2 2025. Infrastructure upgrades and low power contract rates could eventually lift margins, further supporting revenue generation.
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```htmlShare Repurchases
- Cipher Mining repurchased 1,675,624 shares of Common Stock from officers and employees, with a fair value of approximately $7.3 million, to cover taxes related to the settlement of vested Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) in 2025.
- In October 2025, $3.96 million in stocks were repurchased, indicating confidence in value retention.
Share Issuance
- In September 2025, Cipher Mining issued $1.3 billion aggregate principal amount of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031, with an initial conversion price of approximately $16.03 per share, and an effective conversion price of approximately $23.32 per share after capped call transactions to reduce dilution.
- In May 2025, Cipher Mining issued $150 million of convertible senior notes due 2030, convertible into common stock at an initial price of $4.45 per share.
- Annual net common equity issued/repurchased for the twelve months ending September 30, 2025, was $0.575 billion.
Inbound Investments
- Cipher Compute LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary, priced a $1.4 billion offering of 7.125% senior secured notes due 2030 on November 5, 2025, with closing expected on November 13, 2025.
- Cipher Mining successfully completed a $1.3 billion convertible note offering in Q3 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Cipher Mining secured approximately 95% ownership in a Joint Venture to develop a 1-Gigawatt site named "Colchis" in West Texas, providing the majority of the financing. This site has a fully executed 1-GW Direct Connect Agreement with American Electric Power (AEP), targeting energization in 2028.
Capital Expenditures
- Net proceeds from the $1.4 billion senior secured notes offering (November 2025) are intended to finance a portion of the construction cost of the Barber Lake Facility, a high-performance computing data center.
- Proceeds from the $150 million convertible senior notes offering (May 2025) were used to complete Phase 1 of the Black Pearl site, accelerate mining rig deliveries, and cover associated infrastructure-related capital expenses, aiming for 16 EH/s total hashrate by end of Q2 2025.
- Cash flow analysis as of October 2025 indicated a $93.17 million cash burn in investing activities, primarily directed towards business expansion and technology acquisitions.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CIFR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.5% | 14.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | -4.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 7.6% | 7.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.1% | -11.1% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Cipher Mining
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 51.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,366 |
| CFO LTM | 8,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,697 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA022408 | NATROBA | spinosad | suspension | 1182011 | |||||
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $15.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/07/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -38.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $17.97 | $9.01 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -15.5% | 68.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 124.5% | 115.0% |
| Downside Capture | 564.86 | 350.97 |
| Upside Capture | 600.73 | 417.13 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 49.1% | 48.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.15 | 4.88 | 4.22 | 3.98 | 2.90 | 2.94 |
| Up Beta | 2.99 | 5.64 | 2.93 | 1.96 | 1.87 | 2.54 |
| Down Beta | 3.51 | 2.65 | 4.06 | 4.62 | 2.99 | 3.10 |
| Up Capture | 509% | 1079% | 1269% | 2101% | 3776% | 93365% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | 126 | 353 |
| Down Capture | 390% | 365% | 252% | 204% | 164% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 20 | 28 | 55 | 119 | 386 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of CIFR With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 165.1% | 16.3% | 17.8% | 72.1% | 8.6% | 4.4% | -8.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 114.9% | 19.0% | 19.4% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.0% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.38 | 0.67 | 0.72 | 2.70 | 0.34 | 0.09 | -0.08 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 38.0% | 48.4% | 7.9% | 27.1% | 19.9% | 36.0% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of CIFR With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 8.9% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 18.7% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 30.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 115.5% | 18.9% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.6% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.61 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 0.57 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 24.7% | 33.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 22.1% | 31.6% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of CIFR With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 9.1% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 69.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 115.2% | 22.3% | 18.0% | 14.7% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 24.7% | 33.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 22.0% | 31.4% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | 22.0% | 10.9% | -0.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.5% | -6.0% | 44.3% |
| 5/6/2025 | 2.0% | 5.7% | 25.5% |
| 2/25/2025 | -17.4% | -22.5% | -38.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | -6.6% | 32.0% | 26.9% |
| 8/13/2024 | -0.3% | 1.5% | -21.1% |
| 3/5/2024 | -0.7% | 10.1% | 51.6% |
| 11/8/2023 | -7.3% | -26.0% | -31.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| # Negative | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 11.4% | 33.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -7.4% | -28.5% |
| Max Positive | 22.0% | 32.0% | 51.6% |
| Max Negative | -17.4% | -26.0% | -38.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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