Cipher Mining (CIFR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.355 | Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
Cipher Mining (CIFR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.355Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -142 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -69% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Power Grid. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 24x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 278% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -88%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -253% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 340% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.6% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 117% | ||
| Key risksCIFR key risks include [1] escalating net losses that raise significant questions about the long-term profitability and sustainability of its business model and [2] a heavy operational concentration in Texas, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Power Grid. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -142 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -69% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 24x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 278% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -88%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -253% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 340% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.6% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 117% |
| Key risksCIFR key risks include [1] escalating net losses that raise significant questions about the long-term profitability and sustainability of its business model and [2] a heavy operational concentration in Texas, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CIFR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Cipher Mining's stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Strategic Shift to AI/HPC Hosting and Major Contracts: Cipher Mining made a significant strategic pivot towards high-performance computing (HPC) hosting, securing substantial agreements. On November 3, 2025, the company announced an approximately $5.5 billion, 15-year lease agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to provide turnkey space and power for AI workloads. Additionally, Cipher executed a 10-year AI hosting agreement with Fluidstack and Google, with these AI hosting contracts representing about $8.5 billion in total lease payments. This move was described as "truly transformative" and as firmly establishing Cipher's credibility in the HPC space.
2. Significant Capital Raising Activities: The company successfully completed a $1.3 billion convertible note offering, which substantially increased its cash and cash equivalents by $1.2 billion in net proceeds, providing capital to fund future growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CIFR Return | � | -53% | -88% | 637% | 12% | 223% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 22% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CIFR Win Rate | � | 50% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 50% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CIFR Max Drawdown | � | -55% | -91% | 0% | -45% | -55% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MARA, RIOT, CLSK, HUT, CORZ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CIFR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3422.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1010 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -0.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 0.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 148 days |
Compare to ABTC, DMNT, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX
In The Past
Cipher Mining's stock fell -97.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/16/2021. A -97.2% loss requires a 3422.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CIFR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cipher Mining
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| Rev LTM | 653 |
| Op Inc LTM | -150 |
| FCF LTM | -888 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -532 |
| CFO LTM | -322 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -173 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 71.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 82.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 131.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 19.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -49.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -46.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -74.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -43.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -138.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -161.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| P/EBIT | 6.7 |
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/CFO | -9.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -22.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 374.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 236.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | 22.0% | 10.9% | -0.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.5% | -6.0% | 44.3% |
| 5/6/2025 | 2.0% | 5.7% | 25.5% |
| 2/25/2025 | -17.4% | -22.5% | -38.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | -6.6% | 32.0% | 26.9% |
| 8/13/2024 | -0.3% | 1.5% | -21.1% |
| 3/5/2024 | -0.7% | 10.1% | 51.6% |
| 11/8/2023 | -7.3% | -26.0% | -31.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| # Negative | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 11.4% | 33.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -7.4% | -28.5% |
| Max Positive | 22.0% | 32.0% | 51.6% |
| Max Negative | -17.4% | -26.0% | -38.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |