Tearsheet

Cipher Mining (CIFR)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $17.27 | Market Cap: $6.8 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets

Cipher Mining (CIFR)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $17.27
Market Cap: $6.8 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Diversified Capital Markets

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -142 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -69%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Power Grid.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 24x
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 358%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 178%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -88%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -253%
4   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 340%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.6%
6   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Power Grid.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -142 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -69%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 24x
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 358%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 178%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -88%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -253%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 340%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.6%
9 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CIFR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Cipher Mining (CIFR) experienced significant stock movement from late August 2025 to mid-December 2025, driven by several key developments: **1. Strategic Pivot to AI/High-Performance Computing (HPC) Hosting.** The company revealed a strategic transformation from primarily Bitcoin mining to AI/HPC data center hosting, positioning itself to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI computing infrastructure. This strategic shift was a significant positive driver for investor confidence and the stock price.

**2. Securing Major Contracts with Tech Giants.** Cipher Mining entered into substantial agreements, including a 15-year data center campus lease agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS) valued at approximately $5.5 billion, and a 10-year lease with Fluidstack, backed by a $1.4 billion guarantee from Google, for its Barber Lake project. These long-term contracts for AI workloads solidified future revenue streams and demonstrated the success of the HPC pivot.

**3. Strong Q3 2025 Market Reaction to Strategic Initiatives.** Despite reporting earnings per share (EPS) and revenue for Q3 2025 that missed analyst forecasts, Cipher Mining's stock surged significantly, with a 23.32% premarket rise and a 25.68% jump during regular trading hours on November 3, 2025. This positive market reaction was primarily driven by the company's strategic pivot towards HPC and robust future guidance, along with a 65% increase in Q3 revenue from the previous quarter.

**4. Enhanced Operational Capacity and Efficiency in Bitcoin Mining.** The company demonstrated robust growth in its core Bitcoin mining operations. It successfully ramped up its Black Pearl Phase 1 facility, contributing significantly to Bitcoin production, and was on track to exceed its hash rate targets, projecting to reach 23.5 exahash per second by the end of Q3 2025. Improvements in fleet efficiency, from 20.8 joules per terahash to an anticipated 16.8 J/TH, further strengthened its competitive edge.

**5. Significant Capital Infusion.** Cipher Mining strengthened its financial position through a convertible offering that raised approximately $1.3 billion in gross proceeds. This substantial capital infusion bolstered the company's balance sheet and provided the necessary funding to support its strategic expansions in both Bitcoin mining and HPC infrastructure.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CIFR Return-53%-88%637%12%307%
Peers Return48%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CIFR Win Rate50%33%67%50%75% 
Peers Win Rate50%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CIFR Max Drawdown-55%-91%0%-45%-55% 
Peers Max Drawdown-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MARA, RIOT, CLSK, HUT, CORZ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCIFRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-97.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3422.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1010 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-0.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven0.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven6 days148 days

Compare to ABTC, DMNT, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX


In The Past

Cipher Mining's stock fell -97.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/16/2021. A -97.2% loss requires a 3422.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Cipher Mining (CIFR)

Better Bets than Cipher Mining (CIFR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CIFR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.5%16.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
11.3%11.3%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.8%-1.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.4%5.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.8%-8.8%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.5%16.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
11.3%11.3%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.8%-1.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.4%5.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.8%-8.8%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cipher Mining

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CIFRMARARIOTCLSKHUTCORZMedian
NameCipher M.MARA Riot Pla.Cleanspa.Hut 8 Core Sci. 
Mkt Price17.0511.5215.3014.0341.3116.5315.92
Mkt Cap6.74.35.34.04.45.34.8
Rev LTM206919637766668334653
Op Inc LTM-142-625-324-107403-159-150
FCF LTM-522-1,323-1,631-1,024-752-354-888
FCF 3Y Avg-328-736-906-794-302-123-532
CFO LTM-182-891-566-461-104139-322
CFO 3Y Avg-116-554-229-237-59116-173

Growth & Margins

CIFRMARARIOTCLSKHUTCORZMedian
NameCipher M.MARA Riot Pla.Cleanspa.Hut 8 Core Sci. 
Rev Chg LTM35.4%53.5%103.6%102.2%88.7%-40.1%71.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-82.7%37.8%87.8%135.5%-21.9%82.7%
Rev Chg Q197.5%91.7%112.6%150.5%279.5%-14.9%131.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM30.0%15.1%17.6%21.3%21.4%-4.1%19.4%
Op Mgn LTM-68.7%-68.0%-50.8%-14.0%60.3%-47.5%-49.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-65.1%-57.8%-80.1%-34.8%35.9%-19.5%-46.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM25.0%7.5%18.4%2.5%0.9%-5.9%5.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-88.4%-97.0%-88.8%-60.2%-15.5%41.6%-74.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-75.2%-98.4%-42.8%-44.0%-20.6%27.9%-43.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-252.7%-144.0%-256.0%-133.6%-112.5%-106.0%-138.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-204.0%-123.8%-207.0%-199.5%-61.5%-36.0%-161.7%

Valuation

CIFRMARARIOTCLSKHUTCORZMedian
NameCipher M.MARA Riot Pla.Cleanspa.Hut 8 Core Sci. 
Mkt Cap6.74.35.34.04.45.34.8
P/S24.07.410.45.25.517.18.9
P/EBIT-72.85.635.89.99.8-14.97.7
P/E-70.27.340.310.917.9-7.49.1
P/CFO-27.1-7.6-11.7-8.6-35.541.1-10.1
Total Yield-1.4%13.6%2.5%9.2%5.6%-13.4%4.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-18.9%-18.1%-26.4%-41.8%---22.7%
D/E0.20.50.10.20.10.20.2
Net D/E-0.00.40.1-0.00.10.10.1

Returns

CIFRMARARIOTCLSKHUTCORZMedian
NameCipher M.MARA Riot Pla.Cleanspa.Hut 8 Core Sci. 
1M Rtn18.7%-3.9%9.7%28.0%11.8%10.7%11.3%
3M Rtn57.1%-29.4%-3.7%35.6%27.3%4.2%15.8%
6M Rtn358.3%-23.4%57.4%50.9%136.3%39.0%54.1%
12M Rtn178.1%-49.3%17.8%16.7%51.2%6.3%17.3%
3Y Rtn2,360.7%165.4%280.6%638.4%--459.5%
1M Excs Rtn-1.6%-19.7%-0.7%5.6%-0.7%0.9%-0.7%
3M Excs Rtn53.9%-32.3%-11.5%33.1%17.6%-1.9%7.8%
6M Excs Rtn344.1%-37.6%43.2%36.6%122.1%24.8%39.9%
12M Excs Rtn165.0%-62.6%24.7%-4.7%48.1%-8.4%10.0%
3Y Excs Rtn2,019.1%41.0%189.0%510.8%--349.9%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity57,753,637
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-9.5%
Average Daily Volume48,381,401
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.19
Basic Shares Quantity393,191,623
Short % of Basic Shares14.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/202522.0%10.9%-0.1%
8/7/2025-6.5%-6.0%44.3%
5/6/20252.0%5.7%25.5%
2/25/2025-17.4%-22.5%-38.8%
10/31/2024-6.6%32.0%26.9%
8/13/2024-0.3%1.5%-21.1%
3/5/2024-0.7%10.1%51.6%
11/8/2023-7.3%-26.0%-31.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive696
# Negative858
Median Positive2.7%11.4%33.4%
Median Negative-6.6%-7.4%-28.5%
Max Positive22.0%32.0%51.6%
Max Negative-17.4%-26.0%-38.8%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023305202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022314202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021304202210-K 12/31/2021