Cipher Mining (CIFR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.52 | Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
Cipher Mining (CIFR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.52Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -142 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -69% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Power Grid. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 24x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 398%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 201% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -88%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -253% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 340% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.6% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 117% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Power Grid. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -142 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -69% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 24x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 398%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 201% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -88%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -253% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 340% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.6% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 117% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CIFR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strategic Diversification into AI and High-Performance Computing (HPC)
Cipher Mining significantly diversified its operations by expanding into AI training services and high-performance computing (HPC) hosting, moving beyond its traditional Bitcoin mining focus. This strategic shift positioned the company to capitalize on the booming AI industry.
2. Major Partnerships for AI/HPC Infrastructure
The company secured substantial agreements, including a 10-year contract with Fluidstack, an AI training expert backed by Google, announced on September 25, 2025, which drove an initial stock surge. This was further reinforced by an additional 10-year HPC colocation agreement with Fluidstack for approximately $830 million in contracted revenue in November 2025. Additionally, Cipher announced a massive 15-year lease agreement with Amazon Web Services for a 1-gigawatt AI-focused site, causing shares to surge over 31% upon the news in early November 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CIFR Return | - | -53% | -88% | 637% | 12% | 280% | 77% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | -19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CIFR Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 80% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CIFR Max Drawdown | - | -55% | -91% | 0% | -45% | -55% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ABTC, DMNT, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CIFR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3422.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1010 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -0.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 0.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 148 days |
Compare to ABTC, DMNT, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX
In The Past
Cipher Mining's stock fell -97.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/16/2021. A -97.2% loss requires a 3422.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CIFR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cipher Mining
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.63 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| Rev LTM | 206 |
| Op Inc LTM | -5 |
| FCF LTM | -258 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -157 |
| CFO LTM | -67 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -34 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -68.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -31.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 25.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -42.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -35.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -126.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -101.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| P/S | 24.0 |
| P/EBIT | -72.8 |
| P/E | -70.2 |
| P/CFO | -27.1 |
| Total Yield | -1.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -18.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -18.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -21.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 152.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 53.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 883.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -18.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 137.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 28.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 889.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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