Carnival (CCL)
Market Price (12/14/2025): $27.705 | Market Cap: $36.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Carnival (CCL)
Market Price (12/14/2025): $27.705Market Cap: $36.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 7.9% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 5.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 7.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 5.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CCL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Carnival Corporation continued to grapple with high debt levels. Despite efforts to reduce it, the company's debt remained significantly higher than pre-pandemic figures, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio expected to be 3.5x in 2026 compared to 2x in 2019. This substantial debt could limit financial flexibility and pose risks during economic downturns.
2. The industry showed signs of slowing demand and revenue growth. By late 2025, there were indications of decelerating demand across the cruise industry, with Carnival's year-over-year revenue growth slowing to 3.25%. This was a notable decrease compared to earlier performance in 2025 and 2024.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CCL Return | -57% | -7% | -60% | 130% | 34% | 12% | -45% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 20% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CCL Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 63% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CCL Max Drawdown | -84% | -24% | -68% | -1% | -25% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RCL, NCLH, VIK. See CCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CCL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -79.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 390.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1051 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -84.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 551.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 241.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2426 days | 1480 days |
Compare to RCL, NCLH, AHMA, BKNG, MAR
In The Past
Carnival's stock fell -79.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -79.6% loss requires a 390.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CCL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.9% | 17.9% | -1.6% |
| 10312023 | CCL | Carnival | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 29.3% | 93.4% | -1.4% |
| 03312020 | CCL | Carnival | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 14.4% | 101.5% | -39.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.9% | 17.9% | -1.6% |
| 10312023 | CCL | Carnival | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 29.3% | 93.4% | -1.4% |
| 03312020 | CCL | Carnival | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 14.4% | 101.5% | -39.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Carnival
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 48.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 31.9 |
| Rev LTM | 13,565 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,949 |
| FCF LTM | 1,354 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,027 |
| CFO LTM | 3,852 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,452 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 43.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 31.9 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | 9.0 |
| P/E | 19.2 |
| P/CFO | 9.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 209.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 137.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 14,588 | 8,281 | 1,108 | 3,627 | 13,612 |
| Europe | 6,535 | 3,531 | 712 | 1,790 | 6,650 |
| Tour and Other | 265 | 185 | 46 | 110 | 390 |
| Cruise Support | 206 | 171 | 42 | 68 | 173 |
| Total | 21,594 | 12,168 | 1,908 | 5,595 | 20,825 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 1,752 | -2,170 | -3,928 | -5,794 | 2,451 |
| Europe | 593 | -1,830 | -2,617 | -2,729 | 1,115 |
| Tour and Other | 11 | -64 | -67 | -29 | 56 |
| Cruise Support | -399 | -315 | -477 | -313 | -347 |
| Total | 1,957 | -4,379 | -7,089 | -8,865 | 3,275 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 28,547 | 27,413 | 25,606 | 25,257 | 27,102 |
| Europe | 16,524 | 15,317 | 16,088 | 16,505 | 15,473 |
| Cruise Support | 3,667 | 8,461 | 11,014 | 11,135 | 1,861 |
| Tour and Other | 382 | 512 | 637 | 696 | 623 |
| Total | 49,120 | 51,703 | 53,345 | 53,593 | 45,059 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/29/2025 | -4.0% | -6.7% | -3.9% |
| 6/24/2025 | 6.9% | 17.0% | 23.9% |
| 3/21/2025 | -1.2% | -2.0% | -18.7% |
| 12/20/2024 | 6.4% | -0.4% | 1.7% |
| 9/30/2024 | -0.3% | -2.8% | 18.2% |
| 6/25/2024 | 8.7% | 8.1% | 11.0% |
| 3/27/2024 | 0.9% | -9.9% | -10.9% |
| 12/21/2023 | 6.2% | 3.3% | -10.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 13 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 9.1% | 13.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -6.7% | -9.7% |
| Max Positive | 12.4% | 19.2% | 32.3% |
| Max Negative | -23.3% | -23.8% | -22.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 9292025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6262025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3252025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1272025 | 10-K 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 9302024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6272024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3272024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1262024 | 10-K 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9292023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6282023 | 10-Q 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3292023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1272023 | 10-K 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 9302022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6292022 | 10-Q 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3282022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1272022 | 10-K 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |