Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $21.56 | Market Cap: $9.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $21.56Market Cap: $9.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 129% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Cruise Travel, and Experiential Travel. | Key risksNCLH key risks include a substantial debt load that [1] limits financial flexibility and [2] requires prioritizing debt reduction over shareholder returns. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Cruise Travel, and Experiential Travel. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 129% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% |
| Key risksNCLH key risks include a substantial debt load that [1] limits financial flexibility and [2] requires prioritizing debt reduction over shareholder returns. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NCLH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points contributing to the negative movement of Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Report Led to Significant Sell-Off. The company's third-quarter 2025 earnings, reported on November 4, 2025, showed a mixed financial performance. While adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst expectations, revenue of $2.94 billion fell short of the anticipated $3.08 billion to $3.03 billion, leading to a stock drop ranging from approximately 9% to 17.7% in early trading and throughout November. The report also indicated a lowered net yield outlook and a decline in GAAP net income, further impacting investor sentiment.
2. Elevated Debt Levels and Associated Financial Risk Raised Investor Concerns. Norwegian Cruise Line continued to grapple with a significant debt load, with a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 5.4 as of September 30, 2025. This substantial leverage has been a persistent concern for investors. An announcement in early September 2025 regarding a new debt issuance, including approximately $3.25 billion in senior and exchangeable notes, further weighed on investor sentiment, signaling increased financial risk for the cruise operator.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NCLH Return | -56% | -18% | -41% | 64% | 28% | -16% | -63% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 29% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NCLH Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 62% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NCLH Max Drawdown | -87% | -30% | -50% | -3% | -26% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RCL, CCL, VIK, LIND. See NCLH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NCLH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 224.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -87.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 667.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to MAR, RCL, HLT, CCL, AHMA
In The Past
Norwegian Cruise Line's stock fell -69.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2021. A -69.2% loss requires a 224.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NCLH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 11072025 | NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.0% | 13.0% | -8.2% |
| 02292020 | NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -52.5% | -20.7% | -79.1% |
| 12312018 | NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.6% | 37.8% | -4.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 11072025 | NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.0% | 13.0% | -8.2% |
| 02292020 | NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -52.5% | -20.7% | -79.1% |
| 12312018 | NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.6% | 37.8% | -4.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Norwegian Cruise Line
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 28.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 27.6 |
| Rev LTM | 9,693 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,589 |
| FCF LTM | 674 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 857 |
| CFO LTM | 2,093 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,974 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 40.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 27.6 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 13.2 |
| P/E | 16.7 |
| P/CFO | 7.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 21.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 151.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 20.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 69.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -15.3% | -14.2% | -15.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | 9.2% | 6.0% | 8.5% |
| 2/27/2025 | -5.3% | -15.0% | -20.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.3% | 16.4% | 12.8% |
| 7/31/2024 | -0.7% | -16.5% | -3.0% |
| 2/27/2024 | 19.8% | 21.9% | 26.6% |
| 11/1/2023 | -3.7% | -1.5% | 12.3% |
| 8/1/2023 | -12.1% | -16.3% | -23.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 6.0% | 12.3% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -14.6% | -17.1% |
| Max Positive | 19.8% | 21.9% | 26.7% |
| Max Negative | -22.6% | -30.4% | -84.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Dahlgren Patrik | EVP, Chief Vessel Ops & NO | 11252025 | Buy | 17.94 | 5,550 | 99,578 | 2,598,307 | Form |
| 1 | Curtis Harry C | 11122025 | Buy | 19.25 | 5,000 | 96,250 | 968,751 | Form | |
| 2 | David Stella | 11102025 | Buy | 18.59 | 6,986 | 129,870 | 1,923,582 | Form | |
| 3 | Byng-Thorne Zillah | 11102025 | Buy | 18.11 | 29,008 | 525,335 | 1,195,568 | Form | |
| 4 | Kempa Mark | EVP & CFO | 11062025 | Buy | 18.53 | 10,635 | 197,051 | 6,843,539 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |