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Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $21.56 | Market Cap: $9.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $21.56
Market Cap: $9.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 129%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Cruise Travel, and Experiential Travel.
  Key risks
NCLH key risks include a substantial debt load that [1] limits financial flexibility and [2] requires prioritizing debt reduction over shareholder returns.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Cruise Travel, and Experiential Travel.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 129%
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%
6 Key risks
NCLH key risks include a substantial debt load that [1] limits financial flexibility and [2] requires prioritizing debt reduction over shareholder returns.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NCLH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points contributing to the negative movement of Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Report Led to Significant Sell-Off. The company's third-quarter 2025 earnings, reported on November 4, 2025, showed a mixed financial performance. While adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst expectations, revenue of $2.94 billion fell short of the anticipated $3.08 billion to $3.03 billion, leading to a stock drop ranging from approximately 9% to 17.7% in early trading and throughout November. The report also indicated a lowered net yield outlook and a decline in GAAP net income, further impacting investor sentiment.

2. Elevated Debt Levels and Associated Financial Risk Raised Investor Concerns. Norwegian Cruise Line continued to grapple with a significant debt load, with a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 5.4 as of September 30, 2025. This substantial leverage has been a persistent concern for investors. An announcement in early September 2025 regarding a new debt issuance, including approximately $3.25 billion in senior and exchangeable notes, further weighed on investor sentiment, signaling increased financial risk for the cruise operator.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NCLH Return-56%-18%-41%64%28%-16%-63%
Peers Return29%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NCLH Win Rate42%50%42%50%50%42% 
Peers Win Rate62%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NCLH Max Drawdown-87%-30%-50%-3%-26%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RCL, CCL, VIK, LIND. See NCLH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNCLHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-69.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven224.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-87.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven667.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to MAR, RCL, HLT, CCL, AHMA


In The Past

Norwegian Cruise Line's stock fell -69.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2021. A -69.2% loss requires a 224.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)

Better Bets than Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NCLH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
NCLH_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025NCLHNorwegian Cruise LineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
13.0%13.0%-8.2%
NCLH_2292020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02292020NCLHNorwegian Cruise LineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-52.5%-20.7%-79.1%
NCLH_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018NCLHNorwegian Cruise LineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
24.6%37.8%-4.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
NCLH_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025NCLHNorwegian Cruise LineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
13.0%13.0%-8.2%
NCLH_2292020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02292020NCLHNorwegian Cruise LineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-52.5%-20.7%-79.1%
NCLH_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018NCLHNorwegian Cruise LineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
24.6%37.8%-4.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Norwegian Cruise Line

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NCLHRCLCCLVIKLINDMedian
NameNorwegia.Royal Ca.Carnival Viking Lindblad. 
Mkt Price21.54284.8828.0369.6114.1928.03
Mkt Cap9.777.536.827.60.827.6
Rev LTM9,69317,43726,2296,1277369,693
Op Inc LTM1,5894,6054,3091,372431,589
FCF LTM-1,0362,0352,91467452674
FCF 3Y Avg-3391,3691,19785734857
CFO LTM2,0306,3095,6112,093992,093
CFO 3Y Avg1,9745,0534,9291,790711,974

Growth & Margins

NCLHRCLCCLVIKLINDMedian
NameNorwegia.Royal Ca.Carnival Viking Lindblad. 
Rev Chg LTM3.6%8.6%7.1%20.0%18.5%8.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg43.8%37.7%45.9%-27.1%40.7%
Rev Chg Q4.7%5.2%3.3%19.1%16.6%5.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.4%1.5%1.0%5.5%4.9%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM16.4%26.4%16.4%22.4%5.9%16.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.5%23.1%10.8%19.1%3.3%12.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%0.0%0.2%0.8%0.6%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM20.9%36.2%21.4%34.2%13.4%21.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg22.0%32.2%20.6%34.1%10.7%22.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-10.7%11.7%11.1%11.0%7.1%11.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.6%9.3%4.5%16.6%5.1%5.1%

Valuation

NCLHRCLCCLVIKLINDMedian
NameNorwegia.Royal Ca.Carnival Viking Lindblad. 
Mkt Cap9.777.536.827.60.827.6
P/S1.15.01.44.51.01.4
P/EBIT7.517.39.0-33.613.2
P/E16.721.614.029.0-22.816.7
P/CFO5.514.06.613.27.27.2
Total Yield6.0%5.0%7.2%3.5%-4.4%5.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.3%4.0%3.6%-5.9%3.8%
D/E1.30.20.8-0.90.8
Net D/E1.30.20.7-0.60.6

Returns

NCLHRCLCCLVIKLINDMedian
NameNorwegia.Royal Ca.Carnival Viking Lindblad. 
1M Rtn22.9%15.5%10.5%21.6%23.9%21.6%
3M Rtn-15.1%-11.6%-10.1%12.4%9.6%-10.1%
6M Rtn17.1%6.7%18.7%43.1%30.7%18.7%
12M Rtn-18.4%19.1%9.0%51.8%18.8%18.8%
3Y Rtn50.4%440.9%231.7%-70.6%151.1%
1M Excs Rtn22.1%14.7%9.8%20.8%23.2%20.8%
3M Excs Rtn-16.6%-13.9%-12.2%9.7%6.6%-12.2%
6M Excs Rtn4.7%-5.7%6.3%30.7%18.3%6.3%
12M Excs Rtn-30.7%6.5%-2.9%41.9%9.6%6.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-29.1%338.4%142.7%--4.2%69.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment8,550    
Onboard and other 1,5902554131,945
Passenger ticket 3,2543938674,517
Total8,5504,8446481,2806,462


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity36,351,875
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.5%
Average Daily Volume13,794,653
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.64
Basic Shares Quantity450,996,955
Short % of Basic Shares8.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-15.3%-14.2%-15.2%
7/31/20259.2%6.0%8.5%
2/27/2025-5.3%-15.0%-20.6%
10/31/20246.3%16.4%12.8%
7/31/2024-0.7%-16.5%-3.0%
2/27/202419.8%21.9%26.6%
11/1/2023-3.7%-1.5%12.3%
8/1/2023-12.1%-16.3%-23.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91011
# Negative131211
Median Positive3.7%6.0%12.3%
Median Negative-6.8%-14.6%-17.1%
Max Positive19.8%21.9%26.7%
Max Negative-22.6%-30.4%-84.2%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Dahlgren PatrikEVP, Chief Vessel Ops & NO11252025Buy17.945,55099,5782,598,307Form
1Curtis Harry C11122025Buy19.255,00096,250968,751Form
2David Stella11102025Buy18.596,986129,8701,923,582Form
3Byng-Thorne Zillah11102025Buy18.1129,008525,3351,195,568Form
4Kempa MarkEVP & CFO11062025Buy18.5310,635197,0516,843,539Form