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Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.74 | Market Cap: $8.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.74
Market Cap: $8.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Cruise Travel, and Experiential Travel.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Cruise Travel, and Experiential Travel.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NCLH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) experienced a decline of 24.2% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, primarily due to several key factors:

1. Norwegian Cruise Line's third-quarter 2025 revenues missed analyst forecasts. The company reported revenues of $2.94 billion for the three months ending September, which was below the $3.02 billion analysts had expected. This revenue miss contributed to a 10% decline in the stock's pre-market trading on November 4, 2025.

2. Extensive cruise cancellations for the 2025-2026 season impacted future bookings and sentiment. Norwegian Cruise Line announced the cancellation of roughly five months of cruises across three ships—the Norwegian Dawn, Norwegian Star, and Norwegian Jewel—scheduled between November 2025 and April 2026. These cancellations, totaling nearly 40 voyages, were attributed to fleet redeployments, dry dock schedules, and geopolitical factors.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NCLH Return-56%-18%-41%64%28%-28%-68%
Peers Return-22%12%-25%78%35%9%71%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NCLH Win Rate42%50%42%50%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate35%42%40%48%52%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NCLH Max Drawdown-87%-30%-50%-3%-26%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-56%-12%-35%-1%-9%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MAR, RCL, HLT, CCL, AHMA. See NCLH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNCLHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-69.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven224.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-87.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven667.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to MAR, RCL, HLT, CCL, AHMA


In The Past

Norwegian Cruise Line's stock fell -69.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2021. A -69.2% loss requires a 224.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NCLH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
NCLH_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025NCLHNorwegian Cruise LineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.4%-3.4%-8.2%
NCLH_2292020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02292020NCLHNorwegian Cruise LineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-52.5%-20.7%-79.1%
NCLH_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018NCLHNorwegian Cruise LineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
24.6%37.8%-4.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
NCLH_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025NCLHNorwegian Cruise LineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.4%-3.4%-8.2%
NCLH_2292020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02292020NCLHNorwegian Cruise LineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-52.5%-20.7%-79.1%
NCLH_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018NCLHNorwegian Cruise LineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
24.6%37.8%-4.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Norwegian Cruise Line

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NCLHMARRCLHLTCCLAHMAMedian
NameNorwegia.Marriott.Royal Ca.Hilton W.Carnival Ambition. 
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Growth & Margins

NCLHMARRCLHLTCCLAHMAMedian
NameNorwegia.Marriott.Royal Ca.Hilton W.Carnival Ambition. 
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Valuation

NCLHMARRCLHLTCCLAHMAMedian
NameNorwegia.Marriott.Royal Ca.Hilton W.Carnival Ambition. 
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Returns

NCLHMARRCLHLTCCLAHMAMedian
NameNorwegia.Marriott.Royal Ca.Hilton W.Carnival Ambition. 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment8,550    
Onboard and other 1,5902554131,945
Passenger ticket 3,2543938674,517
Total8,5504,8446481,2806,462


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity37,284,790
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.0%
Average Daily Volume24,901,275
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.50
Basic Shares Quantity450,996,955
Short % of Basic Shares8.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Dahlgren PatrikEVP, Chief Vessel Ops & NO11252025Buy17.945,55099,5782,598,307Form
1Curtis Harry C11122025Buy19.255,00096,250968,751Form
2David Stella11102025Buy18.596,986129,8701,923,582Form
3Byng-Thorne Zillah11102025Buy18.1129,008525,3351,195,568Form
4Kempa MarkEVP & CFO11062025Buy18.5310,635197,0516,843,539Form