Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.74 | Market Cap: $8.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.74Market Cap: $8.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Cruise Travel, and Experiential Travel. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Cruise Travel, and Experiential Travel. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NCLH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) experienced a decline of 24.2% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, primarily due to several key factors:
1. Norwegian Cruise Line's third-quarter 2025 revenues missed analyst forecasts. The company reported revenues of $2.94 billion for the three months ending September, which was below the $3.02 billion analysts had expected. This revenue miss contributed to a 10% decline in the stock's pre-market trading on November 4, 2025.
2. Extensive cruise cancellations for the 2025-2026 season impacted future bookings and sentiment. Norwegian Cruise Line announced the cancellation of roughly five months of cruises across three ships—the Norwegian Dawn, Norwegian Star, and Norwegian Jewel—scheduled between November 2025 and April 2026. These cancellations, totaling nearly 40 voyages, were attributed to fleet redeployments, dry dock schedules, and geopolitical factors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NCLH Return | -56% | -18% | -41% | 64% | 28% | -28% | -68% |
| Peers Return | -22% | 12% | -25% | 78% | 35% | 9% | 71% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NCLH Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 42% | 40% | 48% | 52% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NCLH Max Drawdown | -87% | -30% | -50% | -3% | -26% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -12% | -35% | -1% | -9% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MAR, RCL, HLT, CCL, AHMA. See NCLH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NCLH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 224.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -87.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 667.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to MAR, RCL, HLT, CCL, AHMA
In The Past
Norwegian Cruise Line's stock fell -69.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2021. A -69.2% loss requires a 224.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NCLH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 11072025 | NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.4% | -3.4% | -8.2% |
| 02292020 | NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -52.5% | -20.7% | -79.1% |
| 12312018 | NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.6% | 37.8% | -4.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 11072025 | NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.4% | -3.4% | -8.2% |
| 02292020 | NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -52.5% | -20.7% | -79.1% |
| 12312018 | NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.6% | 37.8% | -4.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Norwegian Cruise Line
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Financials
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Dahlgren Patrik | EVP, Chief Vessel Ops & NO | 11252025 | Buy | 17.94 | 5,550 | 99,578 | 2,598,307 | Form |
| 1 | Curtis Harry C | 11122025 | Buy | 19.25 | 5,000 | 96,250 | 968,751 | Form | |
| 2 | David Stella | 11102025 | Buy | 18.59 | 6,986 | 129,870 | 1,923,582 | Form | |
| 3 | Byng-Thorne Zillah | 11102025 | Buy | 18.11 | 29,008 | 525,335 | 1,195,568 | Form | |
| 4 | Kempa Mark | EVP & CFO | 11062025 | Buy | 18.53 | 10,635 | 197,051 | 6,843,539 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |