BrightSpire Capital (BRSP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.76 | Market Cap: $731.2 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
BrightSpire Capital (BRSP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.76Market Cap: $731.2 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 302% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 302% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.9% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BRSP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. BrightSpire Capital's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Announcement
BrightSpire Capital announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results around October 30, 2025, which likely influenced investor sentiment and the stock's performance in the subsequent period.
2. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
The company maintained a "Buy" consensus from analysts, with an average price target of $6.00, suggesting potential for stock price appreciation. While there was a minor adjustment in analyst ratings in November 2025, the overall positive outlook from analysts could have provided support for the stock.
3. Consistent Dividend Declarations
BrightSpire Capital's consistent declaration of quarterly cash dividends, including the $0.16 per share dividend for Q3 2025 paid in October 2025, often signals financial health and can attract income-focused investors, contributing to positive stock performance.
4. Positive Commercial Real Estate Market Dynamics
Favorable trends in the broader commercial real estate (CRE) debt markets, such as tightening CMBS AAA spreads and strong investor demand for CRE CLOs, likely created a positive environment for BrightSpire Capital as a CRE credit REIT. Expectations of stable interest rates could have further fueled this optimism.
5. Strategic Asset Management and New Loan Originations
The company's ongoing focus on asset and liability management, including achievements in reducing watch list assets and engaging in positive net loan originations in prior quarters, likely instilled confidence. A notable $17.815 million senior mortgage provided for Cierra Apartments, dated December 2, 2025, further demonstrated active business operations and could have positively influenced investor sentiment around that time.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BRSP Return | -41% | 46% | -32% | 35% | -14% | 10% | -26% |
| Peers Return | -14% | 10% | -19% | 2% | 6% | 2% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BRSP Win Rate | 58% | 83% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 57% | 50% | 45% | 55% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BRSP Max Drawdown | -78% | -5% | -34% | -13% | -27% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -64% | -6% | -34% | -22% | -11% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BRSP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -79.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 395.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY
In The Past
BrightSpire Capital's stock fell -49.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -49.0% loss requires a 96.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BRSP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for BrightSpire Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 151 |
| Op Inc LTM | 30 |
| FCF LTM | 140 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 154 |
| CFO LTM | 140 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 154 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -7.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 33.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -3.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 119.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 77.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 92.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 77.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| P/EBIT | -17.3 |
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/CFO | 6.5 |
| Total Yield | 10.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 12.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.6% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior and Mezzanine Loans and Preferred Equity | 3,004 | 3,581 | 3,589 | 1,930 | 2,465 |
| Net Leased and Other Real Estate | 934 | 865 | 963 | 1,261 | 1,182 |
| Corporate and Other | 261 | 289 | 245 | 1,300 | 497 |
| Commercial real estate (CRE) Debt Securities | 15 | 840 | 1,721 | 2,226 | |
| Legacy, Non-Strategic Portfolio | 1,045 | ||||
| Total | 4,198 | 4,750 | 5,638 | 6,212 | 7,414 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |