Baldwin Insurance (BWIN)
Market Price (7/8/2026): $27.3 | Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Baldwin Insurance (BWIN)
Market Price (7/8/2026): $27.3Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Cybersecurity. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -84 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.2% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 95% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 90x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0% Key risksBWIN key risks include [1] high leverage from significant acquisition-related debt and [2] persistent unprofitability compounded by costly M&A integration. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Cybersecurity. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -84 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.2% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 95% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 90x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0% |
| Key risksBWIN key risks include [1] high leverage from significant acquisition-related debt and [2] persistent unprofitability compounded by costly M&A integration. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) stock has gained about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Rumors of a potential take-private transaction fueled investor interest.
In late June 2026, reports surfaced that Baldwin Insurance Group had retained advisors to explore strategic options, including a potential take-private transaction backed by private equity. This news caused the stock to jump, with JPMorgan upgrading its rating to Overweight from Neutral and raising its price target to $28.00 from $25.00, citing a take-private as a "credible outcome" that could "crystallize value".
2. Strong Q1 2026 revenue growth surpassed analyst expectations.
Baldwin Insurance Group reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results on May 4, 2026, revealing a 28.7% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue to $532.24 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $524.07 million. While earnings per share (EPS) of $0.63 slightly missed the $0.64 consensus, the significant revenue beat and overall business momentum in Q1 2026 were positive indicators.
Show more
Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) stock has gained about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Rumors of a potential take-private transaction fueled investor interest.
In late June 2026, reports surfaced that Baldwin Insurance Group had retained advisors to explore strategic options, including a potential take-private transaction backed by private equity. This news caused the stock to jump, with JPMorgan upgrading its rating to Overweight from Neutral and raising its price target to $28.00 from $25.00, citing a take-private as a "credible outcome" that could "crystallize value".
2. Strong Q1 2026 revenue growth surpassed analyst expectations.
Baldwin Insurance Group reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results on May 4, 2026, revealing a 28.7% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue to $532.24 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $524.07 million. While earnings per share (EPS) of $0.63 slightly missed the $0.64 consensus, the significant revenue beat and overall business momentum in Q1 2026 were positive indicators.
3. Positive analyst upgrades and a favorable valuation contributed to the rally.
Following the Q1 2026 results and strategic review reports, analysts issued positive commentary. JPMorgan upgraded the stock and increased its price target. Additionally, TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating, noting Baldwin's organic growth rate is approximately twice that of its retail peers, and the stock traded at a discount of 7.2 times its estimated fiscal year 2027 earnings per share compared to peers trading at roughly 14 times.
4. Optimistic fiscal year 2026 guidance and accelerating organic growth prospects.
The company provided strong outlook for fiscal Q2 2026, projecting revenue between $485 million and $490 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.44 to $0.48. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and anticipates organic growth to accelerate throughout the year, driven by the rollout of three transitory headwinds and the integration of partnerships. Analysts also forecast the company to turn profitable in fiscal 2026, with an estimated $2.93 earnings per share, a significant improvement from the prior year's loss.
5. Benefits from the CAC Group merger and cost-saving initiatives.
The completed merger with CAC Group in January 2026 continued to contribute to improving fundamentals, with the acquired CAC business growing revenue by 27% year-over-year in fiscal Q1 2026. Furthermore, the ongoing 3B30 cost savings program is expected to lead to gradual margin expansion in the coming years.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.4% change in BWIN stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 56.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.94 | 27.30 | 24.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,488 | 1,608 | 8.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.0 | 1.6 | 56.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 69 | 94 | -26.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BWIN | 24.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | -7.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 13.5% | 17.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.6% change in BWIN stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.03 | 27.30 | 13.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,469 | 1,608 | 9.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.1 | 1.6 | 41.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 69 | 94 | -26.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.6% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BWIN | 13.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | -3.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.9% | 15.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.2% change in BWIN stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.6% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 42.81 | 27.30 | -36.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,407 | 1,608 | 14.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.0 | 1.6 | -20.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 94 | -29.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -36.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BWIN | -36.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 0.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.3% | 20.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.2% change in BWIN stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 52.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.78 | 27.30 | 10.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,056 | 1,608 | 52.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.4 | 1.6 | 15.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 59 | 94 | -37.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BWIN | 10.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 23.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 73.7% | 33.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BWIN Return | 20% | -30% | -4% | 61% | -38% | 13% | -10% |
| Peers Return | 27% | -3% | 7% | 19% | -5% | -1% | 49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BWIN Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 38% | 43% | 58% | 47% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BWIN Max Drawdown | -23% | -51% | -45% | -31% | -54% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -24% | -13% | -10% | -24% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WTW, NP, MRSH, AON, AJG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BWIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -49.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 755 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Baldwin Insurance's stock fell -7.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 8.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | BWIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -49.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 755 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Baldwin Insurance's stock fell -7.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 8.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Baldwin Insurance (BWIN)
Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) is an independent insurance distribution firm operating across the United States, providing a broad spectrum of insurance and risk management solutions. The company acts as an intermediary, connecting individuals and businesses with the necessary coverage to manage their risks effectively.
Its operations are divided into three key segments. The Insurance Advisory Solutions segment delivers commercial risk management, employee benefits, and private risk management for businesses and high-net-worth individuals and their families. The Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment leverages its "Future" platform to create technology-enabled insurance products spanning personal, commercial, and specialty lines, alongside offering specialty wholesale brokerage and reinsurance services for professionals, individuals, and niche industry businesses. Lastly, the Mainstreet Insurance Solutions segment focuses on providing personal, commercial, and life and health insurance solutions to individuals and businesses within local communities, demonstrating a comprehensive reach from everyday needs to specialized corporate requirements.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Think of it like an Expedia for all kinds of insurance, helping businesses and individuals find and manage their policies.
2. Similar to Charles Schwab, but instead of investments, it's an advisor and broker for a wide array of insurance and risk management solutions.
3. Essentially a diversified insurance brokerage firm, like a Marsh McLennan with a strong emphasis on technology and proprietary product development.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Commercial Risk Management & Insurance: Provides comprehensive risk management and insurance solutions for businesses, including general commercial and specialty wholesale coverage.
- Employee Benefits Consulting: Offers advisory services and solutions for employee benefit programs.
- Private Client Solutions: Delivers tailored risk management and insurance for high-net-worth individuals and their families.
- Technology-Enabled Insurance Products (Future Platform): Manufactures and distributes technology-driven personal, commercial, and specialty insurance products.
- Reinsurance Brokerage: Facilitates the placement of reinsurance coverage for other insurers.
- Mainstreet Personal & Life/Health Insurance: Provides personal insurance, life insurance, and health insurance solutions to individuals and families in local communities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) serves a diverse range of clients across its three segments. The company operates as an independent insurance distribution firm, meaning its customers are primarily entities seeking insurance and risk management solutions. Its major customer categories include:
-
Businesses: This broad category includes commercial clients seeking risk management solutions, employee benefits, general commercial insurance, and specialized solutions for niche industry businesses and professionals. This spans small to large enterprises across various sectors.
-
Individuals and Families: Baldwin Insurance serves individuals with personal insurance needs, life and health solutions, and provides private risk management solutions specifically tailored for high-net-worth individuals and their families.
-
Other Insurance Companies: Through its Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment, Baldwin Insurance offers reinsurance brokerage services, where other insurance companies are the direct customers for these specialized services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Trevor Baldwin, Chief Executive Officer
Trevor Baldwin joined The Baldwin Group in 2009 and ascended to the role of Chief Executive Officer in May 2019, leading the company through its initial public offering in October 2019. Prior to joining The Baldwin Group, he honed his investment and operational skills at HealthEdge Investment Partners, LLC, a private equity firm. He also co-founded Adventec Solutions, Inc., a national Professional Employer Organization, in 1997.
Bradford Hale, Chief Financial Officer
Bradford Hale has served as Chief Financial Officer of The Baldwin Group since April 2021, after initially joining the company in 2019 as Chief Accounting Officer. Before his tenure at The Baldwin Group, Mr. Hale was a Managing Director and Shareholder at CBIZ MHM, LLC, where he led the Accounting Advisory group, focusing on technical accounting projects. His prior experience also includes serving as Director of Accounting & Risk Management at Bloomin' Brands, Inc. and working at Deloitte, LLP.
Daniel Galbraith, President, The Baldwin Group and Chief Executive Officer, Retail Brokerage Operations
Daniel Galbraith is responsible for overseeing the integration of partner firms, establishing a national platform, and implementing The Baldwin Group's specialization strategy across its Commercial Risk Management, Employee Benefits, and Private Risk Management lines of business. He also led the development of a sustainable shared services infrastructure.
Jim Roche, President, The Baldwin Group and Chief Executive Officer, Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Operations
Jim Roche has been instrumental in building the Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions (UCTS) operating group. He is slated to transition to the role of Executive Chairman of UCTS effective January 1, 2027.
Seth Cohen, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Seth Cohen leads The Baldwin Group's legal, compliance, and regulatory functions. He joined the company in February 2020, previously serving as Deputy General Counsel, Legal Operations & Strategic Initiatives, and Chief Information Security Officer. Mr. Cohen brings more than 20 years of experience from various industries.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Baldwin Insurance (BWIN)
- Financial Health and High Leverage: The Baldwin Insurance Group exhibits poor financial strength, characterized by a high debt-to-equity ratio (2.81) and elevated leverage, which was near 4.5x following a recent acquisition. The company has a low interest coverage of 0.55, indicating insufficient earnings to cover interest expenses, and a negative net margin of -1.91%. An Altman Z-Score of 0.9 places the company in a financial distress zone, suggesting a potential risk of bankruptcy. This financial strain leads to limited liquidity, pressured margins, and prioritizes debt reduction over other financial activities.
- Integration and Execution Risks from Acquisitions: Baldwin Insurance Group has pursued a growth strategy that includes significant acquisitions, such as the $1.03 billion acquisition of CAC Group. A primary risk associated with such mergers is the potential for key agents and advisors to depart, taking their client relationships and business with them. The company also faces general integration risks and execution challenges when incorporating new digital tools and workflows into existing operations.
- Regulatory Complexity and Compliance Burden: As an independent insurance distribution firm, Baldwin Insurance Group operates within a highly regulated industry that is subject to continuous changes at both federal and state levels. Evolving regulations pertaining to insurance sales practices, licensing requirements, agent compensation, data privacy, and consumer protection can lead to increased operational costs, restrict business activities, and expose the company to potential legal penalties, fines, or reputational damage due to non-compliance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threats to Baldwin Insurance (BWIN), an independent insurance distribution firm, stem from the increasing disintermediation of traditional insurance brokers and agents:
- Direct-to-consumer (D2C) Insurtech platforms: These technology-driven platforms provide individuals and businesses with the ability to purchase insurance directly from carriers or digital brokers, often through user-friendly online interfaces, mobile apps, and AI-powered advice. This trend bypasses the need for traditional advisory and brokerage services, which are central to Baldwin's Insurance Advisory Solutions and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions segments.
- Embedded insurance models: This involves integrating insurance seamlessly into the purchase of other products or services, often at the point of sale (e.g., travel insurance when booking a flight, warranty insurance when buying electronics, or auto insurance bundled with vehicle financing). This approach removes the traditional role of an independent broker, as the insurance product is bundled by a primary service provider, directly impacting Baldwin's distribution model.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Baldwin Insurance (symbol: BWIN) operates in several addressable markets within the United States for its main products and services:
- Commercial Risk Management and Commercial Insurance: The aggregated premiums for commercial business lines in the U.S. were approximately $502.35 billion in 2024.
- Employee Benefits Solutions (Brokerage): The U.S. insurance brokerage market for employee benefits was valued at $34.74 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $70.11 billion by 2032.
- Private Risk Management and Personal Insurance:
- Life Insurance: The U.S. life insurance market generated revenues of approximately $504.37 billion in 2020.
- Individual Health Insurance: The U.S. individual health insurance market was valued at $1.6 trillion in 2022 and is projected to reach $2.54 trillion by 2030.
- Personal Lines Property/Casualty Insurance (e.g., auto, homeowners): Based on U.S. insurance industry net premiums written, personal lines property/casualty premiums were estimated to be approximately $400.35 billion in 2024 (derived from total property/casualty premiums of $902.7 billion and commercial premiums of $502.35 billion).
- Reinsurance Brokerage Services: The broker segment of the U.S. reinsurance market represented approximately 72% of the total U.S. reinsurance market in 2025, which had an estimated revenue of $137.7 billion. This indicates an addressable market for reinsurance brokerage of approximately $99.14 billion in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships: The company's merger agreement with CAC Group, along with other partnerships, is projected to significantly boost revenue. The CAC Group alone is anticipated to contribute approximately $345 million in gross revenue and $90 million in Adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Additionally, a 10-year exclusive agreement with Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation, set to launch in Q2 2026, is expected to enhance its embedded distribution strategy.
- Sustained Organic Growth through Client Retention and Sales Velocity: Baldwin Insurance is targeting mid-single digit or higher organic growth for the full year 2026, with a goal of achieving double-digit organic growth on a run-rate basis by Q4 2026. This growth is supported by improved client retention, which increased by nearly 300 basis points year-over-year in Q4 2025, and a strong sales velocity that reached 19% in 2025, outperforming the industry median.
- Expansion and Leverage of Technology-Enabled and Embedded Insurance Platforms: The company is focused on its technology-enabled distribution platforms, such as Westwood, which generated $190 million in pro forma revenue in 2025 and is integrated with major U.S. homebuilders. Furthermore, accelerating AI integration and workflow automation are expected to enhance productivity and agility, particularly in its personal lines business. The success of its Founder Shield digital platform and the renters insurance platform (which wrote over $280 million in premium in 2025 into proprietary products) also highlight the potential from these technological investments.
- Strong Performance and Growth within the Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions (UCTS) Segment: The UCTS segment has been a significant growth driver, achieving 21% organic growth for the full year 2025 and 16% in Q4 2025. Continued momentum from initiatives like Juniper Re and the introduction of a multifamily captive are expected to further bolster organic growth within this segment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In February 2026, Baldwin Insurance's Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $250 million of its common stock.
- Management has indicated that share repurchases are considered the best use of capital in the near term, citing the company's valuation at 8x EBITDA.
Share Issuance
- As part of the acquisition of CAC Group, Baldwin issued 23.2 million shares, valued at approximately $589 million, in a deal that was expected to close in Q1 2026.
- In January 2026, Baldwin filed a Form D related to a $551.7 million equity issuance, involving Class A common stock priced at $23.78 per share, in connection with a business combination transaction.
- In September 2021, BRP Group (now Baldwin Insurance) priced an offering of 8,000,000 shares of its Class A common stock at $30.50 per share, with proceeds intended for general corporate purposes, including funding acquisitions.
Inbound Investments
- In March 2025, an affiliate of Gallatin Point Capital LLC provided $95 million in surplus financing for the launch of Baldwin's debut Builder Reciprocal Insurance Exchange (BRIE), as part of a $110 million note purchase agreement.
Outbound Investments
- Baldwin completed a merger transaction with CAC Group in March 2026 (announced December 2025) for a total upfront consideration of $1.03 billion.
- In January 2026, Baldwin completed the acquisition of Capstone Group, an insurance brokerage firm, to strengthen its national platform and expand regional expertise.
- The company also completed the acquisition of Westwood Insurance Agency in April 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- Baldwin Insurance makes significant investments in technology and talent development, such as its MSI platform and sales training programs, to support organic growth and enhance its competitive advantage.
- As of December 31, 2025, capital expenditures were reported at $10.4 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 216.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 46.7 |
| Rev LTM | 12,435 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,521 |
| FCF LTM | 1,714 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,195 |
| CFO LTM | 1,908 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,358 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 7.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance Advisory Solutions | 727 | 712 | 630 | 559 | 364 |
| Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions | 549 | 473 | 420 | 308 | 144 |
| Mainstreet Insurance Solutions | 298 | 281 | 235 | ||
| Corporate and Other | -70 | -77 | -67 | -43 | -3 |
| MainStreet | 119 | 34 | |||
| Medicare | 38 | 27 | |||
| Total | 1,505 | 1,389 | 1,219 | 981 | 567 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Insurance Solutions | 29 | ||||
| Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions | 27 | 35 | 5 | -10 | -11 |
| Insurance Advisory Solutions | 23 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 10 |
| Corporate and Other | -122 | -106 | -55 | -31 | -14 |
| MainStreet | 15 | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Medicare | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Total | -43 | -31 | -32 | -22 | -5 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions | 72 | 83 | 28 | 34 | 4 |
| Insurance Advisory Solutions | 58 | 52 | 23 | 22 | 11 |
| Mainstreet Insurance Solutions | 35 | 42 | 29 | ||
| Corporate and Other | -219 | -219 | -245 | -151 | -82 |
| MainStreet | 15 | 4 | |||
| Medicare | 3 | 4 | |||
| Total | -54 | -41 | -164 | -77 | -58 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance Advisory Solutions | 2,294 | 2,329 | 2,293 | 2,240 | 2,142 |
| Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions | 758 | 621 | 646 | 616 | 550 |
| Mainstreet Insurance Solutions | 713 | 525 | 519 | 531 | |
| Corporate and Other | 98 | 60 | 44 | 75 | 66 |
| MainStreet | 61 | ||||
| Medicare | 56 | ||||
| Total | 3,862 | 3,535 | 3,502 | 3,462 | 2,876 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $27.30 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/24/2019 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -36.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $21.80 | $23.40 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 25.2% | 16.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 69.4% | 63.7% |
| Downside Capture | -223.67 | -9.56 |
| Upside Capture | -33.62 | -51.87 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -5.6% | 0.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.33 | -0.73 | -0.26 | -0.05 | 0.08 | 0.77 |
| Up Beta | -0.05 | -0.03 | 0.71 | 1.18 | 0.63 | 1.01 |
| Down Beta | 1.83 | 0.96 | 0.23 | 0.74 | 0.30 | 0.74 |
| Up Capture | 77% | -67% | -18% | -44% | -25% | 27% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 22 | 31 | 57 | 121 | 384 |
| Down Capture | -310% | -281% | -221% | -124% | 13% | 88% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 19 | 32 | 67 | 129 | 365 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BWIN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWIN | -31.6% | 63.7% | -0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 6.7% | 14.7% | 0.22 | 20.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.7% | 12.5% | 1.22 | 0.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.0% | 27.8% | 0.73 | -4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 22.9% | 18.6% | 0.97 | -1.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.6% | 13.8% | 0.68 | 23.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -41.8% | 42.8% | -1.14 | 4.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BWIN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWIN | 0.7% | 52.8% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.7% | 18.6% | 0.44 | 42.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 40.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | -1.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 19.5% | 0.29 | 4.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 39.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.2% | 53.5% | 0.43 | 20.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BWIN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWIN | 5.5% | 54.0% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 14.1% | 22.1% | 0.58 | 41.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 41.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.2% | 18.0% | 0.27 | 10.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 40.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.9% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 18.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/5/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/4/2026 | -3.2% | -8.2% | -14.6% |
| 2/26/2026 | 25.6% | 20.3% | 14.1% |
| 11/4/2025 | 10.0% | 19.2% | 8.9% |
| 8/5/2025 | -16.7% | -10.1% | -14.2% |
| 5/6/2025 | -4.2% | -5.9% | -7.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | 1.9% | 1.6% | 12.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | -11.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% |
| 8/6/2024 | 2.4% | -0.8% | 12.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -5.9% | -9.0% |
| Max Positive | 25.6% | 25.8% | 37.7% |
| Max Negative | -23.6% | -12.9% | -14.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/4/2026 | -3.2% | -8.2% | -14.6% |
| 2/26/2026 | 25.6% | 20.3% | 14.1% |
| 11/4/2025 | 10.0% | 19.2% | 8.9% |
| 8/5/2025 | -16.7% | -10.1% | -14.2% |
| 5/6/2025 | -4.2% | -5.9% | -7.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | 1.9% | 1.6% | 12.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | -11.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% |
| 8/6/2024 | 2.4% | -0.8% | 12.0% |
| 5/7/2024 | 12.1% | 8.7% | 20.9% |
| 2/28/2024 | 1.8% | 9.0% | 5.9% |
| 11/7/2023 | -12.1% | -3.4% | -12.2% |
| 8/9/2023 | -3.5% | 4.8% | 7.9% |
| 5/9/2023 | -4.3% | -12.6% | -4.8% |
| 2/28/2023 | -4.0% | -8.4% | -14.8% |
| 11/7/2022 | 0.1% | -0.2% | -1.9% |
| 8/9/2022 | 5.4% | 13.5% | 11.9% |
| 5/10/2022 | -23.6% | 0.9% | 9.8% |
| 3/1/2022 | 1.8% | -12.9% | 2.9% |
| 11/8/2021 | -4.1% | 2.6% | -6.3% |
| 8/9/2021 | 17.6% | 25.8% | 37.7% |
| 5/10/2021 | -2.4% | -1.5% | 8.8% |
| 3/11/2021 | -0.8% | -2.1% | 4.6% |
| 11/12/2020 | 5.5% | 5.6% | -9.0% |
| 8/13/2020 | 5.5% | 8.5% | 32.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -5.9% | -9.0% |
| Max Positive | 25.6% | 25.8% | 37.7% |
| Max Negative | -23.6% | -12.9% | -14.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/01/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/11/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/12/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/13/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/13/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/24/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 12/02/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 424B4 |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cohen, Seth Bala | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 20.01 | 15,000 | 300,150 | 280,620 | Form |
| 2 | Krystyn, Elizabeth | Trust | Sell | 5082026 | 21.20 | 130,018 | Form | |||
| 3 | Krystyn, Elizabeth | Trust | Sell | 5082026 | 21.19 | 71,982 | 1,525,481 | 672,651 | Form | |
| 4 | Krystyn, Elizabeth | Trust | Sell | 3062026 | 21.25 | 119,987 | Form | |||
| 5 | Sparks, Paul Eugene | Sparks 5280VC, LLC | Buy | 3042026 | 22.10 | 15,200 | 335,920 | 22,027,203 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cohen, Seth Bala | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 20.01 | 15,000 | 300,150 | 280,620 | Form |
| 2 | Krystyn, Elizabeth | Trust | Sell | 5082026 | 21.20 | 130,018 | Form | |||
| 3 | Krystyn, Elizabeth | Trust | Sell | 5082026 | 21.19 | 71,982 | 1,525,481 | 672,651 | Form | |
| 4 | Krystyn, Elizabeth | Trust | Sell | 3062026 | 21.25 | 119,987 | Form | |||
| 5 | Sparks, Paul Eugene | Sparks 5280VC, LLC | Buy | 3042026 | 22.10 | 15,200 | 335,920 | 22,027,203 | Form | |
| 6 | Sparks, Paul Eugene | Sparks 5280VC, LLC | Buy | 3042026 | 22.96 | 29,000 | 665,840 | 22,535,378 | Form | |
| 7 | Roche, James Morgan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 24.03 | 80,000 | 1,922,737 | 1,012,153 | Form |
| 8 | Roche, James Morgan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 24.20 | 100,000 | 2,420,000 | 2,955,135 | Form |
| 9 | Roche, James Morgan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 23.34 | 60,000 | 1,400,400 | 5,184,117 | Form |
| 10 | Roche, James Morgan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 25.08 | 15,000 | 376,200 | 1,056,194 | Form |
| 11 | Cohen, Seth Bala | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 34.00 | 2,775 | 94,350 | 355,810 | Form |
| 12 | Hale, Bradford | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 8072025 | 28.72 | 10,000 | 287,200 | 4,154,606 | Form |
| 13 | Roche, James Morgan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6132025 | 40.07 | 26,679 | 1,069,028 | 1,687,468 | Form |
| 14 | Baldwin, Trevor | Chief Executive Officer | TLB 2020 Trust | Sell | 6132025 | 39.83 | 117,000 | 4,660,266 | 1,102,372 | Form |
| 15 | Roche, James Morgan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6132025 | 40.03 | 10,894 | 436,087 | 2,753,744 | Form |
| 16 | Baldwin, Trevor | Chief Executive Officer | TLB 2020 Trust | Sell | 6132025 | 38.48 | 58,000 | 2,231,840 | 5,567,132 | Form |
| 17 | Baldwin, Lowry | Trust | Sell | 6112025 | 38.98 | 50,000 | Form | |||
| 18 | Roche, James Morgan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6062025 | 40.08 | 7,142 | 286,251 | 3,193,815 | Form |
| 19 | Cohen, Seth Bala | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6052025 | 39.58 | 4,496 | 177,952 | 524,039 | Form |
| 20 | Baldwin, Lowry | Trust | Sell | 5302025 | 38.32 | 62,500 | Form | |||
| 21 | Roche, James Morgan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5192025 | 40.04 | 3,572 | 143,023 | 3,476,593 | Form |
| 22 | Roche, James Morgan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5192025 | 40.01 | 14,222 | 569,022 | 3,616,904 | Form |
| 23 | Roche, James Morgan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5142025 | 40.02 | 13,340 | 533,867 | 4,186,972 | Form |
| 24 | Galbraith, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5142025 | 40.00 | 39,207 | 1,568,280 | 153,960 | Form |
| 25 | Baldwin, Lowry | Trust | Sell | 5142025 | 39.00 | 62,500 | Form | |||
| 26 | Roche, James Morgan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5142025 | 40.05 | 21,035 | 842,452 | 4,724,378 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.