Tearsheet

Baldwin Insurance (BWIN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $26.2 | Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers

Baldwin Insurance (BWIN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $26.2
Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Insurance Brokers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -3.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 85%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 29x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 222x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Cybersecurity. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.6%
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Cybersecurity. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -3.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 85%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 29x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 222x
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BWIN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) stock moved by -17.9% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Despite reporting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue that surpassed analyst expectations on November 4, 2025, Baldwin Insurance Group announced a GAAP net loss of $30.2 million for the quarter. The company also saw its adjusted diluted EPS decline by 6% year-over-year to $0.31, and its adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 19.8% from 21.5%, indicating underlying profitability challenges.

2. Numerous Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: During the period, several analyst firms either downgraded their ratings or significantly reduced their price targets for BWIN. For instance, Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock from "hold" to "sell" on October 3rd, JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its price objective from $41.00 to $34.00 on October 9th, and Wells Fargo & Company cut its price target from $28.00 to $24.00 while setting an "underweight" rating on November 5th.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BWIN Return87%20%-30%-4%61%-32%64%
Peers Return-1%24%-7%3%17%-10%24%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BWIN Win Rate67%67%42%50%67%40% 
Peers Win Rate57%65%33%40%56%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BWIN Max Drawdown-44%-23%-51%-30%-9%-45% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-9%-21%-8%-1%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NP, WTW, HGIA, MMC, AON.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBWINS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-58.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven138.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven239 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven84 days148 days

Compare to NP, WTW, HGIA, MMC, AON


In The Past

Baldwin Insurance's stock fell -58.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/15/2021. A -58.0% loss requires a 138.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Baldwin Insurance (BWIN)

Better Bets than Baldwin Insurance (BWIN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BWIN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Baldwin Insurance

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BWINNPWTWHGIAMMCAONMedian
NameBaldwin .Neptune .Willis T.HengguangMarsh & .Aon  
Mkt Price25.9923.74316.53-183.87344.45183.87
Mkt Cap1.8-31.0-90.374.352.7
Rev LTM1,469-9,807-26,45317,02813,418
Op Inc LTM68-2,268-6,1464,4543,361
FCF LTM-33-1,381-4,8253,0402,210
FCF 3Y Avg8-1,176-4,0572,9562,066
CFO LTM9-1,603-5,0873,2842,444
CFO 3Y Avg40-1,412-4,3983,1992,305

Growth & Margins

BWINNPWTWHGIAMMCAONMedian
NameBaldwin .Neptune .Willis T.HengguangMarsh & .Aon  
Rev Chg LTM10.1%--0.0%-10.5%14.1%10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg18.9%-3.5%-8.3%11.1%9.7%
Rev Chg Q7.9%--0.0%-11.5%7.4%7.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.8%--0.0%-2.5%1.6%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM4.6%-23.1%-23.2%26.2%23.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.6%-21.0%-23.1%27.1%22.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.7%-0.6%--0.3%0.5%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM0.6%-16.3%-19.2%19.3%17.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.1%-14.6%-18.1%21.5%16.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.2%-14.1%-18.2%17.9%16.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.7%-12.2%-16.7%19.9%14.4%

Valuation

BWINNPWTWHGIAMMCAONMedian
NameBaldwin .Neptune .Willis T.HengguangMarsh & .Aon  
Mkt Cap1.8-31.0-90.374.352.7
P/S1.3-3.5-3.74.53.6
P/EBIT28.6-11.4-15.318.016.7
P/E-68.8-16.0-24.028.320.0
P/CFO222.2-21.1-19.523.422.3
Total Yield-1.5%-7.0%-5.8%4.3%5.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.8%-1.7%0.8%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.2%-4.1%-4.0%4.1%4.1%
D/E0.9-0.2-0.20.20.2
Net D/E0.9-0.1-0.20.10.2

Returns

BWINNPWTWHGIAMMCAONMedian
NameBaldwin .Neptune .Willis T.HengguangMarsh & .Aon  
1M Rtn16.0%-6.0%0.8%-3.8%1.4%1.4%
3M Rtn-14.0%-25.8%-3.0%--10.0%-7.7%-10.0%
6M Rtn-32.9%-25.8%2.9%--20.2%-7.2%-20.2%
12M Rtn-46.9%-25.8%-2.7%--18.8%-9.9%-18.8%
3Y Rtn-14.9%-25.8%32.9%-10.6%15.0%10.6%
1M Excs Rtn16.0%-6.0%0.8%-3.8%1.4%1.4%
3M Excs Rtn-22.3%-31.2%-9.1%--15.7%-12.9%-15.7%
6M Excs Rtn-47.6%-40.5%-11.8%--34.9%-21.9%-34.9%
12M Excs Rtn-60.5%-39.4%-14.1%--33.5%-24.9%-33.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-85.2%-98.6%-35.4%--58.6%-57.2%-58.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Insurance Advisory Solutions2,2932,2402,1421,194105
Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions646616550188155
Mainstreet Insurance Solutions519531   
Corporate and Other4475664561
MainStreet  615960
Medicare  564418
Total3,5023,4622,8761,530399


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,380,083
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202516.0%
Average Daily Volume1,288,611
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.73
Basic Shares Quantity68,604,951
Short % of Basic Shares10.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021