Tearsheet

Aurora Innovation (AUR)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.57 | Market Cap: $8.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services

Aurora Innovation (AUR)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.57
Market Cap: $8.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -862 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -43100%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Future of Freight, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5096x
2  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -28850%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30400%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Future of Freight, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -862 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -43100%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5096x
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -28850%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30400%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AUR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the movement of Aurora Innovation (AUR) stock by -18.8% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025: 1. A critical report from short-seller Kerrisdale Capital significantly impacted investor confidence. In late August 2025, Kerrisdale Capital released a report asserting that Aurora Innovation would "never become a viable commercial operation" and questioned the viability and cost-effectiveness of its autonomous driving technology and necessary infrastructure. This report caused a notable drop in the stock price around August 21, 2025, whose effects carried into the specified period.

2. Aurora Innovation reported modest revenue and substantial operating losses in its Q3 2025 earnings. On October 28, 2025, the company announced Q3 2025 revenue of only $1.0 million, slightly missing analyst estimates of $1.26 million. Concurrently, it reported a significant operating loss of $222 million, highlighting continued high cash burn for scaling investments ahead of significant revenue generation.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AUR Return---89%261%44%-27%-59%
Peers Return-19%7%-17%29%-24%-41%-59%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AUR Win Rate-71%25%50%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate38%54%38%67%46%35% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AUR Max Drawdown---90%-5%-51%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-52%-13%-28%-7%-31%-47% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GIB, XRX, BAO, GBH, JAJI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAURS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1400.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GIB, XRX, BAO, GBH, JAJI


In The Past

Aurora Innovation's stock fell -93.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -93.3% loss requires a 1400.9% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Aurora Innovation (AUR)

Better Bets than Aurora Innovation (AUR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AUR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Aurora Innovation

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AURGIBXRXBAOGBHJAJIMedian
NameAurora I.CGI Xerox BAO Gigabit JAJI Glo. 
Mkt Price4.5791.492.79---4.57
Mkt Cap8.620.10.4---8.6
Rev LTM215,9136,174---6,174
Op Inc LTM-8622,612131---131
FCF LTM-6081,964302---302
FCF 3Y Avg-6201,904376---376
CFO LTM-5772,234367---367
CFO 3Y Avg-5952,184425---425

Growth & Margins

AURGIBXRXBAOGBHJAJIMedian
NameAurora I.CGI Xerox BAO Gigabit JAJI Glo. 
Rev Chg LTM-8.4%-5.0%---1.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.4%-3.7%---1.8%
Rev Chg Q-9.7%-0.1%---4.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM100.0%2.3%-0.0%---2.3%
Op Mgn LTM-43,100.0%16.4%2.1%---2.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-16.4%3.7%---10.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM40,500.0%0.1%-0.6%---0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-28,850.0%14.0%5.9%---5.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-14.6%6.5%---10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-30,400.0%12.3%4.9%---4.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-12.7%5.7%---9.2%

Valuation

AURGIBXRXBAOGBHJAJIMedian
NameAurora I.CGI Xerox BAO Gigabit JAJI Glo. 
Mkt Cap8.620.10.4---8.6
P/S5,096.21.20.1---1.2
P/EBIT-11.88.3-0.6----0.6
P/E-12.711.8-0.5----0.5
P/CFO-17.78.81.8---1.8
Total Yield-7.9%8.5%-214.5%----7.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-10.3%8.5%31.5%---8.5%
D/E0.00.25.9---0.2
Net D/E-0.10.25.3---0.2

Returns

AURGIBXRXBAOGBHJAJIMedian
NameAurora I.CGI Xerox BAO Gigabit JAJI Glo. 
1M Rtn1.9%7.3%-5.7%---1.9%
3M Rtn-18.2%-3.9%-27.6%----18.2%
6M Rtn-19.1%-14.8%-43.4%----19.1%
12M Rtn-24.2%-18.7%-66.1%----24.2%
3Y Rtn248.9%5.9%-79.4%---5.9%
1M Excs Rtn0.6%6.1%-7.0%---0.6%
3M Excs Rtn-26.0%-11.1%-34.1%----26.0%
6M Excs Rtn-34.6%-30.2%-58.9%----34.6%
12M Excs Rtn-38.0%-31.7%-81.5%----38.0%
3Y Excs Rtn201.3%-65.1%-151.4%----65.1%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity141,554,572
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120255.4%
Average Daily Volume18,409,528
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.69
Basic Shares Quantity1,891,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021311202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Bagley Brittany 10022025Sell5.3950,000269,6752,148,619Form
1Donahoe John J 8072025Buy6.10162,337989,460989,460Form
2Boyland Gloria R. 6092025Sell5.9246,097272,6731,954,530Form