Aurora Innovation (AUR)
Market Price (8/18/2026): $6.45 | Market Cap: $12.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Aurora Innovation (AUR)
Market Price (8/18/2026): $6.45Market Cap: $12.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 400% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Future of Freight, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -970 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19400% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 2,755x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 4100% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13580%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15020% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% Key risksAUR key risks include [1] a high cash burn rate necessitating continuous funding amid minimal revenue, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 400% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Future of Freight, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -970 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19400% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 2,755x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 4100% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13580%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15020% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
| Key risksAUR key risks include [1] a high cash burn rate necessitating continuous funding amid minimal revenue, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Aurora Innovation (AUR) stock has gained about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Commercial Scaling and New Partnerships Propelled by Second-Generation Driverless Trucks.
Aurora Innovation initiated a significant commercial scaling phase during fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) with the launch of its second-generation driverless trucks. This was underscored by new commercial agreements for freight operations, including a partnership with Value Truck announced on July 27, 2026, and expanded agreements with Charger Logistics and Hirschbach Motor Lines in early August 2026. The company is fully allocated to exit 2026 with 200 driverless trucks in operation, which is projected to achieve an approximate $80 million annual revenue run rate for its Transportation-as-a-Service business.
2. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Revenue Performance and Optimistic Full-Year Outlook.
Aurora reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $2 million on July 29, 2026, marking a 100% year-over-year increase and exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $1.66 million by 36.33%. Despite reporting a net loss of $270 million for the quarter, the company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $14 million to $16 million, anticipating approximately 400% growth year-over-year at the midpoint. Management indicated that revenue generation would be significantly back-end loaded, with fiscal Q4 2026 expected to contribute over half of the full-year total as driverless operations expand.
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Aurora Innovation (AUR) stock has gained about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Commercial Scaling and New Partnerships Propelled by Second-Generation Driverless Trucks.
Aurora Innovation initiated a significant commercial scaling phase during fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) with the launch of its second-generation driverless trucks. This was underscored by new commercial agreements for freight operations, including a partnership with Value Truck announced on July 27, 2026, and expanded agreements with Charger Logistics and Hirschbach Motor Lines in early August 2026. The company is fully allocated to exit 2026 with 200 driverless trucks in operation, which is projected to achieve an approximate $80 million annual revenue run rate for its Transportation-as-a-Service business.
2. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Revenue Performance and Optimistic Full-Year Outlook.
Aurora reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $2 million on July 29, 2026, marking a 100% year-over-year increase and exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $1.66 million by 36.33%. Despite reporting a net loss of $270 million for the quarter, the company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $14 million to $16 million, anticipating approximately 400% growth year-over-year at the midpoint. Management indicated that revenue generation would be significantly back-end loaded, with fiscal Q4 2026 expected to contribute over half of the full-year total as driverless operations expand.
3. Enhanced Technological Efficiency and Pathway to Reduced Costs.
The introduction of the second-generation commercial hardware kit for the Aurora Driver is a key development, engineered for 1 million miles of operation and expected to drive a 50% or more reduction in hardware costs. This technological advancement is crucial for improving unit economics and is seen as a vital lever supporting the company's target for breakeven gross margins as it scales its autonomous freight service. Additionally, manufacturing partner Roush has commenced production at a dedicated facility and is expected to reach an annual run rate of 1,000 trucks by October.
4. Increased Analyst Confidence and Positive Price Target Adjustments.
Throughout the period, Aurora Innovation received reinforced confidence from financial analysts. Notably, Morgan Stanley reiterated an "overweight" rating and raised its price target to $14.00 in a research note on May 7, 2026. Other firms, such as Cantor Fitzgerald and Northland Securities, also maintained or initiated "Overweight" or "Outperform" ratings, contributing to a consensus price target averaging around $11.18 to $12.22 across covered analysts. This reflects growing Wall Street optimism regarding Aurora's progress toward commercialization and its long-term market potential.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.5% change in AUR stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 66.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.88 | 6.97 | 18.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3 | 5 | 66.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 3,792.6 | 2,754.5 | -27.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,935 | 1,976 | -2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AUR | 18.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.5% | 57.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 40.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 66.0% change in AUR stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 150.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.20 | 6.97 | 66.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2 | 5 | 150.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 3,971.1 | 2,754.5 | -30.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,891 | 1,976 | -4.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 66.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AUR | 66.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.0% | 58.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.5% | 46.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.0% change in AUR stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 400.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.81 | 6.97 | 20.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1 | 5 | 400.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 10,370.8 | 2,754.5 | -73.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,785 | 1,976 | -9.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AUR | 20.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.3% | 54.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 6.1% | 43.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 112.5% change in AUR stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 1766.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.28 | 6.97 | 112.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26 | 5 | -80.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 147.6 | 2,754.5 | 1766.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,170 | 1,976 | -40.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 112.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AUR | 112.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.7% | 45.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 37.4% | 44.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AUR Return | 13% | -89% | 261% | 44% | -39% | 82% | -30% |
| Peers Return | 47% | -32% | 45% | 3% | 21% | -25% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AUR Win Rate | 62% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 33% | 62% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 55% | 25% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AUR Max Drawdown | - | -90% | -55% | -51% | -63% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -57% | -30% | -46% | -40% | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KDK, GOOGL, MBLY, APTV, TSLA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/17/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AUR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Aurora Innovation's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | AUR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Aurora Innovation's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Aurora Innovation (AUR)
Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) is a technology company focused on developing and deploying self-driving systems for a range of vehicles. Its core business revolves around creating the foundational technology that enables vehicles to operate autonomously, aiming to transform transportation across various sectors.
The company's primary product is the "Aurora Driver," a comprehensive platform that integrates specialized self-driving hardware, advanced software, and essential data services. This platform is designed to provide a complete autonomous driving solution, enabling vehicles to perceive their environment, make decisions, and navigate safely without human intervention.
Aurora's technology is built for broad applicability, targeting integration into diverse vehicle types. Its primary markets and potential customers include the passenger vehicle industry, operators of light commercial vehicles (such as delivery fleets), and the heavy-duty trucking sector, seeking to enhance safety and efficiency within these transportation segments.
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The Android for self-driving vehicles.
Like Waymo or Cruise, but specializing in autonomous trucks and commercial logistics.
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- Aurora Driver: A comprehensive self-driving technology platform that integrates hardware, software, and data services to enable autonomous operation across passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles, and trucks.
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Aurora Innovation (AUR) primarily sells its self-driving technology platform, Aurora Driver, to other companies. Its major customers and partners include:
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- PACCAR Inc. (PCAR)
- Volvo Group (VOLV-B)
- Continental AG (CON)
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
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Chris Urmson, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Chris Urmson is a co-founder of Aurora Innovation, established in 2017, and has served as its CEO and a director since its inception. Prior to co-founding Aurora, he was instrumental in building Google's self-driving program from 2009 to 2016, where he held the position of Chief Technology Officer. Urmson also has decades of experience leading automated vehicle programs, including serving as the Director of Technology for Carnegie Mellon's DARPA Grand and Urban Challenge Teams, which achieved significant placements, including first in 2007.
David Maday, Chief Financial Officer
David Maday has served as Aurora's Chief Financial Officer since June 2023. Before this role, he was the Senior Vice President of Business Development and Product Strategy at Aurora starting in August 2021, and Vice President of Business Development and Product Strategy from September 2020. Prior to joining Aurora, Maday spent over 20 years at General Motors (GM), where he held various senior leadership positions. His roles at GM included Vice President within the Corporate Development and Global Mergers & Acquisitions team from September 2019 to September 2020, and Executive Director from January 2016 to September 2019, where he developed and executed multi-billion dollar partnerships.
James Andrew Bagnell, Co-Founder and Chief Scientist
James Andrew Bagnell is a co-founder of Aurora and currently serves as Chief Scientist. He served as Chief Technical Officer of Aurora from December 2016 until July 2020 and has led software engineering throughout much of Aurora's history. With over two decades of experience at the intersection of machine learning and robotics in industrial and academic roles, he also holds a position as a Consulting Professor at Carnegie Mellon University's Robotics Institute and Machine Learning Department. Before co-founding Aurora, Bagnell was the Head of Perception and Autonomy Architect at Uber's Advanced Technology Group from January 2015 to December 2016 and a professor at Carnegie Mellon from 2004-2018.
Ossa Fisher, President
Ossa Fisher has served as President at Aurora since February 2023. She brings over 20 years of leadership experience in strategy, operations, and business functions across a diverse range of technology organizations. Before joining Aurora, Ms. Fisher was President and Chief Operating Officer at Istation from 2019 to 2022, overseeing various functions including engineering, product, sales, marketing, and customer success.
Nolan Shenai, General Counsel & Secretary
Nolan Shenai holds the position of General Counsel & Secretary at Aurora Innovation. Additional detailed background information on previous companies founded or managed, company sales to acquirers, or a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies was not readily available in the search results.
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The key risks to Aurora Innovation (AUR) primarily revolve around the significant financial demands of developing and commercializing autonomous vehicle technology, coupled with the complex regulatory landscape and intense competition.
- Financial Challenges and Capital Requirements: Aurora Innovation faces substantial ongoing operating losses and a high cash burn rate due to the capital-intensive nature of developing self-driving technology. The company has minimal revenue and consistently requires significant additional capital to fund its research and development, as well as its commercialization efforts. This continuous need for financing poses a risk of dilution for shareholders and questions regarding long-term financial sustainability.
- Regulatory Hurdles and Market Adoption: The autonomous vehicle industry is subject to evolving and potentially inconsistent regulations across different jurisdictions, which can significantly impact the deployment and commercialization of Aurora's technology. Beyond regulatory approvals, there's also the challenge of achieving widespread public trust and market acceptance for self-driving vehicles, particularly given ongoing safety concerns. Delays in establishing clear regulatory frameworks or slower-than-anticipated adoption rates could impede Aurora's growth and profitability.
- Intense Competition and Execution Risk: Aurora operates in a highly competitive market with numerous well-funded companies, including other technology firms and established automotive manufacturers, all vying to develop and deploy autonomous driving solutions. The company also faces significant execution risks in scaling its driverless operations from pilot programs to large-scale commercial networks. This includes challenges in complex integration, real-world validation, and potentially eroding partnerships, which could impact its ability to maintain a competitive edge and achieve its operational targets.
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The clear emerging threat to Aurora Innovation is the potential for dominant autonomous vehicle companies, particularly those backed by major tech giants or automotive OEMs (such as Waymo or GM's Cruise), to achieve significant market penetration through a vertically integrated strategy. These entities develop their own full-stack self-driving technology, often control or deeply integrate with their vehicle fleets, and operate their own commercial services (e.g., ride-hailing, trucking). If this integrated model becomes the prevailing and most successful pathway to commercialization, it could significantly diminish the market opportunity for a pure-play technology provider like Aurora, which aims to license its "Aurora Driver" platform to external partners. This approach could reduce the need for potential customers to license third-party self-driving software, as they might instead partner with or be supplanted by these fully integrated competitors.
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Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ: AUR) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives in its self-driving technology platform.
- Scaling of Commercial Driverless Trucking Operations (Aurora Horizon): The primary driver for near-term revenue growth is the expansion of Aurora's driverless trucking operations. Having launched its first driverless commercial trucking operations in 2025, the company plans to deploy over 200 driverless trucks by the end of 2026. This expansion is expected to nearly triple the addressable market to over 3.6 billion vehicle miles traveled by opening seven additional driverless lanes. Aurora forecasts a 400% year-over-year revenue growth at the midpoint for 2026, targeting $14 million to $16 million. The "Driver-as-a-Service" model will be priced similarly to human driver equivalents.
- Expansion of Operational Design Domain (ODD) and Route Network: Aurora's ability to expand its operational routes beyond initial deployments in the Sunbelt (e.g., Dallas to Houston, and Phoenix in 2025) will fuel revenue growth. Future expansion will be guided by customer demand, extending to the Midwest and both coasts. New capabilities in handling adverse weather conditions such as rain, fog, and heavy wind, as well as multi-lane and endpoint deliveries, are critical for enabling broader route expansion and increasing service availability.
- Launch of Second-Generation Hardware Kit for Cost Reduction: While not a direct revenue driver, the introduction of a second-generation hardware kit, with production planned by Continental to start in 2027, is expected to significantly reduce hardware costs by over 50%. This substantial cost reduction is anticipated to enhance profitability and potentially allow for more competitive pricing, indirectly stimulating customer adoption and revenue growth in the long run.
- Growth in Strategic Partnerships and Customer Acquisition: Aurora's existing partnerships with industry leaders like PACCAR, Toyota, Volvo Trucks, FedEx, Uber Freight, Werner, and Schneider are crucial for scaling. The company has already secured contracts for its anticipated launch capacity, and further customer acquisition, such as the new agreement with Detmar Logistics, will directly lead to the deployment of more driverless trucks and the expansion of service lanes, thereby increasing revenue.
- Diversification into Autonomous Ride-Hailing (Aurora Connect): Beyond trucking, Aurora is establishing a foundation for diversification into autonomous ride-hailing services. The integration of the Aurora Driver system into Toyota Sienna minivans is underway, with a commercial launch projected for late 2026. Analysts anticipate initial revenue of $1 million from this segment in 2026, with significant growth expected by 2030, marking a new revenue stream for the company.
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Share Issuance
- In 2023, Aurora completed a private placement to institutional and strategic investors, raising $600 million.
- In July 2023, the company also completed a public offering, raising approximately $220 million.
- In 2024, Aurora completed another public offering, raising $466 million.
- An at-the-market (ATM) offering in Q3 2025 raised a net of $460 million through the issuance of approximately 80 million shares.
Inbound Investments
- Aurora received a $600 million investment through a Post IPO private placement round in July 2023, with participation from strategic investors including Uber.
Capital Expenditures
- Aurora's net cash used in operating activities was $581 million in 2025, reflecting substantial investment in technology, operations, and commercialization.
- The company's net investment was -$245 million in FY2025.
- Anticipated average quarterly cash use for 2026 is projected to be $190–$220 million, which will include capital expenditures for ongoing development and commercialization efforts.
- A primary focus of capital allocation has been on developing the Aurora Driver, including its next-generation sensing suite with proprietary FirstLight Lidar, and a truck program to provide driverless capacity.
Peer Outperformance in Automotive Parts & Equipment
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -4.3% | 105.0% | 70.4% | LINC 365% · UTI 288% · CVSA 273% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -1.5% | 33.8% | 59.0% | GRBK 190% · TOL 163% · PHM 157% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 22 | 21.4% | 57.0% | 19.8% | RCL 302% · MAR 186% · HLT 178% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -13.1% | 3.7% | 13.2% | LOW 19% · HD 19% · HVT 13% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -5.9% | 0.0% | 11.4% | MUSA 291% · PAG 188% · ORLY 126% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 6.6% | 22.8% | 8.4% | DKS 117% · SIG 39% · ASO 35% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | 5.1% | 41.5% | 3.2% | SGI 58% · LZB 38% · MHK -32% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -5.4% | -25.3% | 2.1% | BRAG 977% · MCRI 117% · RSI 103% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -13.3% | 18.7% | -3.4% | HRB 133% · FTDR 97% · SCI 40% |
| Footwear | 9 | 70.3% | 43.8% | -7.3% | WEYS 155% · SHOO 31% · DECK 26% |
| Distributors | 4 | -7.8% | -24.3% | -9.4% | ARMK 172% · GPC 24% · LKQ -43% |
| Restaurants | 34 | -3.7% | -8.0% | -11.0% | EAT 368% · CAKE 186% · TXRH 147% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -2.6% | -22.1% | -29.6% | GOLF 91% · HAS 20% · MCFT 4% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment ← | 38 | -3.0% | -4.7% | -30.4% | MOD 1551% · GTX 320% · STRT 95% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 27 | 9.2% | -4.5% | -38.6% | ELA 289% · RL 261% · TPR 254% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 10.9% | 38.1% | -39.7% | KEQU 173% · HBB 131% · FLXS 121% |
| Apparel Retail | 25 | 6.7% | 3.7% | -39.7% | ANF 191% · DXLG 182% · TJX 122% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | -8.7% | -8.6% | -40.4% | OSW 193% · JAKK 122% · ESCA 11% |
| Broadline Retail | 15 | 4.6% | 10.4% | -50.5% | DDS 286% · AMZN 63% · M 56% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -9.5% | 0.2% | -53.1% | BBY -2% · GME -53% · UPBD -57% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -68.9% | -67.5% | -69.1% | GM 73% · TSLA 48% · F 47% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -21.5% | -26.4% | -73.9% | AXIL 2207% · GRMN 107% · TBCH -52% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 18 | -28.3% | -46.1% | -78.9% | BBW 215% · TLF 108% · WINA 101% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.63 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.2 |
| Rev LTM | 10,370 |
| Op Inc LTM | 837 |
| FCF LTM | 536 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,257 |
| CFO LTM | 920 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,983 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 24.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -10.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -7.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $6.97 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 13.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/10/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $6.40 | $5.25 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 9.0% | 32.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 60.6% | 63.8% |
| Downside Capture | 371.08 | 309.26 |
| Upside Capture | 273.66 | 253.78 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 62.2% | 54.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.36 | 2.55 | 2.95 | 2.89 | 2.62 | 2.53 |
| Up Beta | 2.22 | 1.37 | 1.59 | 2.49 | 2.78 | 2.21 |
| Down Beta | 3.97 | 2.50 | 2.48 | 2.08 | 2.28 | 2.32 |
| Up Capture | 337% | 302% | 464% | 664% | 540% | 10492% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 32 | 65 | 129 | 367 |
| Down Capture | 366% | 274% | 290% | 217% | 174% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 30 | 60 | 120 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AUR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUR | 6.3% | 63.7% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 2.3% | 19.4% | -0.01 | 43.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.9% | 12.8% | 1.21 | 54.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 32.1% | 28.5% | 0.97 | 28.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 40.1% | 20.2% | 1.55 | -7.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.9% | 0.72 | 10.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.9% | 42.7% | -1.37 | 38.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AUR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUR | -5.8% | 91.3% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.1% | 24.0% | 0.21 | 47.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 44.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 18.5% | 0.89 | 12.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.3% | 19.6% | 0.41 | 5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.2% | 18.9% | 0.01 | 31.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 52.7% | 0.31 | 27.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AUR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUR | -3.1% | 89.1% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.2% | 22.2% | 0.50 | 47.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 43.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.2% | 0.62 | 12.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 5.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 30.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.1% | 1.00 | 25.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | 4.3% | 11.9% | |
| 5/6/2026 | -1.8% | 15.5% | -13.2% |
| 2/11/2026 | -3.2% | 11.5% | -6.4% |
| 10/28/2025 | -1.9% | -13.7% | -22.1% |
| 7/30/2025 | 0.3% | 4.3% | -0.3% |
| 5/8/2025 | -6.1% | -12.0% | -24.1% |
| 2/12/2025 | 46.0% | 28.8% | 8.1% |
| 10/30/2024 | -21.8% | -14.0% | -2.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 11.7% | 7.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -14.0% | -23.8% |
| Max Positive | 46.0% | 28.8% | 33.7% |
| Max Negative | -21.8% | -22.5% | -32.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | 4.3% | 11.9% | |
| 5/6/2026 | -1.8% | 15.5% | -13.2% |
| 2/11/2026 | -3.2% | 11.5% | -6.4% |
| 10/28/2025 | -1.9% | -13.7% | -22.1% |
| 7/30/2025 | 0.3% | 4.3% | -0.3% |
| 5/8/2025 | -6.1% | -12.0% | -24.1% |
| 2/12/2025 | 46.0% | 28.8% | 8.1% |
| 10/30/2024 | -21.8% | -14.0% | -2.6% |
| 7/31/2024 | 1.8% | -17.2% | 11.7% |
| 5/8/2024 | 7.4% | -13.1% | -32.1% |
| 2/14/2024 | -6.1% | -22.5% | -31.9% |
| 11/1/2023 | 6.1% | 8.8% | 33.7% |
| 8/2/2023 | 0.0% | 1.3% | 2.9% |
| 5/3/2023 | 0.7% | 11.9% | 7.5% |
| 2/15/2023 | -5.0% | -18.3% | -30.0% |
| 11/2/2022 | 6.4% | -14.9% | -23.4% |
| 8/3/2022 | -5.4% | -1.1% | -24.4% |
| 5/4/2022 | -0.7% | -17.4% | -26.3% |
| 2/16/2022 | -2.0% | -3.2% | 0.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 11.7% | 7.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -14.0% | -23.8% |
| Max Positive | 46.0% | 28.8% | 33.7% |
| Max Negative | -21.8% | -22.5% | -32.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 08/12/2022 | 10-K/A |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/30/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Driverless Trucks in Operation | 20 | 22.5 | 25 | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 14.00 Mil | 15.00 Mil | 16.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 15.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 TaaS Revenue Run-rate | 80.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 80.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Quarterly Cash Use | -220.00 Mil | -205.00 Mil | -190.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: -205.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 150.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 150.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 14.00 Mil | 15.00 Mil | 16.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 15.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 TaaS Revenue Run-rate | 80.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 80.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Quarterly Cash Use | 190.00 Mil | 205.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 205.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 150.00 Mil | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 14.00 Mil | 15.00 Mil | 16.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 400.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Driverless Trucks in Operation | 200 | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue Run-rate | 80.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Hardware Cost Reduction | 0.5 | ||||||
| 2026 Quarterly Cash Use | -220.00 Mil | -205.00 Mil | -190.00 Mil | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Cash Use | -185.00 Mil | -180.00 Mil | -175.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/13/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P. | Sell | 8132026 | 7.01 | 22,163 | Form | |||
| 2 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Yucca (Jersey) SLP | Sell | 8132026 | 7.01 | 338 | Form | |||
| 3 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P. | Sell | 8132026 | 7.00 | 14,692 | Form | |||
| 4 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Yucca (Jersey) SLP | Sell | 8132026 | 7.00 | 224 | Form | |||
| 5 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P. | Sell | 8132026 | 6.99 | 1,420,222 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P. | Sell | 8132026 | 7.01 | 22,163 | Form | |||
| 2 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Yucca (Jersey) SLP | Sell | 8132026 | 7.01 | 338 | Form | |||
| 3 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P. | Sell | 8132026 | 7.00 | 14,692 | Form | |||
| 4 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Yucca (Jersey) SLP | Sell | 8132026 | 7.00 | 224 | Form | |||
| 5 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P. | Sell | 8132026 | 6.99 | 1,420,222 | Form | |||
| 6 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Yucca (Jersey) SLP | Sell | 8132026 | 6.99 | 21,627 | Form | |||
| 7 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P. | Sell | 8112026 | 7.00 | 34,181 | Form | |||
| 8 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Yucca (Jersey) SLP | Sell | 8112026 | 7.00 | 520 | Form | |||
| 9 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P. | Sell | 8112026 | 7.05 | 1,826,508 | Form | |||
| 10 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Yucca (Jersey) SLP | Sell | 8112026 | 7.05 | 27,814 | Form | |||
| 11 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P. | Sell | 8072026 | 7.07 | 177,085 | 1,252,806 | 2,231,435 | Form | |
| 12 | Volpi, Michelangelo | By: Yucca (Jersey) SLP | Sell | 8072026 | 7.07 | 2,697 | 19,080 | 33,979 | Form | |
| 13 | Wehner, David M | Direct | Buy | 6152026 | 6.04 | 82,500 | 498,300 | 1,488,975 | Form | |
| 14 | Uber, Technologies, Inc | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 7.10 | 67,500,000 | 479,250,000 | 1,835,161,218 | Form | |
| 15 | Hoffman, Reid | See Footnotes | Sell | 5282026 | 7.27 | 1,202,354 | Form | |||
| 16 | Hoffman, Reid | See Footnotes | Sell | 5192026 | 7.51 | 347,646 | 2,609,153 | 451,198 | Form | |
| 17 | Hoffman, Reid | See Footnotes | Sell | 5192026 | 7.81 | 5,498,487 | 42,933,286 | 605,136 | Form | |
| 18 | Urmson, Christopher | Chief Executive Officer | Held by the Urmson Family Revocable Trust | Buy | 11262025 | 3.88 | 258,000 | 1,000,627 | 1,000,627 | Form |
| 19 | Bagley, Brittany | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 5.39 | 50,000 | 269,675 | 2,148,619 | Form | |
| 20 | Donahoe, John J | Held by the Donahoe Living Trust | Buy | 8072025 | 6.10 | 162,337 | 989,460 | 989,460 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 18, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uber Technologies, Inc | $1.3 Bil | 37.3% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Toyota Motor Corp/ | $195.1 Mil | 8.0% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| Allen Operations LLC | $42.8 Mil | 6.4% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $44.2 Mil | 1.4% | 14 | TRIM -8.4% | 13F |
| SB Investment Advisers (UK) LTD | $81.6 Mil | 1.1% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Lingotto Investment Management LLP | $40.1 Mil | 0.8% | 34 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| SC US (TTGP), LTD. | $36.3 Mil | 0.4% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $6.1 Mil | 0.1% | 37 | TRIM -78.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uber Technologies, Inc | $1.3 Bil | 37.3% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Toyota Motor Corp/ | $195.1 Mil | 8.0% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| SB Investment Advisers (UK) LTD | $81.6 Mil | 1.1% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $44.2 Mil | 1.4% | 14 | TRIM -8.4% | 13F |
| Allen Operations LLC | $42.8 Mil | 6.4% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Lingotto Investment Management LLP | $40.1 Mil | 0.8% | 34 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| SC US (TTGP), LTD. | $36.3 Mil | 0.4% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $6.1 Mil | 0.1% | 37 | TRIM -78.0% | 13F |
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Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment Resources |
| AftermarketNews |
| Tire Review |
| Motor Age |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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