Aurora Innovation (AUR)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.57 | Market Cap: $8.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services
Aurora Innovation (AUR)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.57Market Cap: $8.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: IT Consulting & Other Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -862 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -43100% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Future of Freight, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5096x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -28850%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30400% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Future of Freight, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -862 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -43100% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5096x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -28850%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30400% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AUR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of Aurora Innovation (AUR) stock by -18.8% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. A critical report from short-seller Kerrisdale Capital significantly impacted investor confidence. In late August 2025, Kerrisdale Capital released a report asserting that Aurora Innovation would "never become a viable commercial operation" and questioned the viability and cost-effectiveness of its autonomous driving technology and necessary infrastructure. This report caused a notable drop in the stock price around August 21, 2025, whose effects carried into the specified period.
2. Aurora Innovation reported modest revenue and substantial operating losses in its Q3 2025 earnings. On October 28, 2025, the company announced Q3 2025 revenue of only $1.0 million, slightly missing analyst estimates of $1.26 million. Concurrently, it reported a significant operating loss of $222 million, highlighting continued high cash burn for scaling investments ahead of significant revenue generation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AUR Return | - | - | -89% | 261% | 44% | -27% | -59% |
| Peers Return | -19% | 7% | -17% | 29% | -24% | -41% | -59% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AUR Win Rate | - | 71% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 54% | 38% | 67% | 46% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AUR Max Drawdown | - | - | -90% | -5% | -51% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -13% | -28% | -7% | -31% | -47% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GIB, XRX, BAO, GBH, JAJI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AUR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1400.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to GIB, XRX, BAO, GBH, JAJI
In The Past
Aurora Innovation's stock fell -93.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -93.3% loss requires a 1400.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AUR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aurora Innovation
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.57 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| Rev LTM | 6,174 |
| Op Inc LTM | 131 |
| FCF LTM | 302 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 376 |
| CFO LTM | 367 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 425 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | -0.6 |
| P/E | -0.5 |
| P/CFO | 1.8 |
| Total Yield | -7.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -19.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 5.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -26.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -34.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -38.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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