Aurora Innovation (AUR)


Market Price (8/18/2026): $6.45 | Market Cap: $12.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment

Aurora Innovation (AUR)


Market Price (8/18/2026): $6.45
Market Cap: $12.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 400%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Future of Freight, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more.

Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -970 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19400%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 2,755x

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 4100%

Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13580%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15020%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%

Key risks
AUR key risks include [1] a high cash burn rate necessitating continuous funding amid minimal revenue, Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 400%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Future of Freight, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -970 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19400%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 2,755x
4 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 4100%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13580%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15020%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%
7 Key risks
AUR key risks include [1] a high cash burn rate necessitating continuous funding amid minimal revenue, Show more.

AUR in ETFs

Weight = AUR's share of each fund

VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWB0.01%
VB0.13%
BOTZ2.5%
ARKQ1.8%
NUSC0.41%
IGV0.29%
+15 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 8/7/2026

Aurora Innovation (AUR) stock has gained about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Commercial Scaling and New Partnerships Propelled by Second-Generation Driverless Trucks.

Aurora Innovation initiated a significant commercial scaling phase during fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) with the launch of its second-generation driverless trucks. This was underscored by new commercial agreements for freight operations, including a partnership with Value Truck announced on July 27, 2026, and expanded agreements with Charger Logistics and Hirschbach Motor Lines in early August 2026. The company is fully allocated to exit 2026 with 200 driverless trucks in operation, which is projected to achieve an approximate $80 million annual revenue run rate for its Transportation-as-a-Service business.

2. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Revenue Performance and Optimistic Full-Year Outlook.

Aurora reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $2 million on July 29, 2026, marking a 100% year-over-year increase and exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $1.66 million by 36.33%. Despite reporting a net loss of $270 million for the quarter, the company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $14 million to $16 million, anticipating approximately 400% growth year-over-year at the midpoint. Management indicated that revenue generation would be significantly back-end loaded, with fiscal Q4 2026 expected to contribute over half of the full-year total as driverless operations expand.

Show more
Updated on 8/7/2026

Aurora Innovation (AUR) stock has gained about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Commercial Scaling and New Partnerships Propelled by Second-Generation Driverless Trucks.

Aurora Innovation initiated a significant commercial scaling phase during fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) with the launch of its second-generation driverless trucks. This was underscored by new commercial agreements for freight operations, including a partnership with Value Truck announced on July 27, 2026, and expanded agreements with Charger Logistics and Hirschbach Motor Lines in early August 2026. The company is fully allocated to exit 2026 with 200 driverless trucks in operation, which is projected to achieve an approximate $80 million annual revenue run rate for its Transportation-as-a-Service business.

2. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Revenue Performance and Optimistic Full-Year Outlook.

Aurora reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $2 million on July 29, 2026, marking a 100% year-over-year increase and exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $1.66 million by 36.33%. Despite reporting a net loss of $270 million for the quarter, the company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $14 million to $16 million, anticipating approximately 400% growth year-over-year at the midpoint. Management indicated that revenue generation would be significantly back-end loaded, with fiscal Q4 2026 expected to contribute over half of the full-year total as driverless operations expand.

3. Enhanced Technological Efficiency and Pathway to Reduced Costs.

The introduction of the second-generation commercial hardware kit for the Aurora Driver is a key development, engineered for 1 million miles of operation and expected to drive a 50% or more reduction in hardware costs. This technological advancement is crucial for improving unit economics and is seen as a vital lever supporting the company's target for breakeven gross margins as it scales its autonomous freight service. Additionally, manufacturing partner Roush has commenced production at a dedicated facility and is expected to reach an annual run rate of 1,000 trucks by October.

4. Increased Analyst Confidence and Positive Price Target Adjustments.

Throughout the period, Aurora Innovation received reinforced confidence from financial analysts. Notably, Morgan Stanley reiterated an "overweight" rating and raised its price target to $14.00 in a research note on May 7, 2026. Other firms, such as Cantor Fitzgerald and Northland Securities, also maintained or initiated "Overweight" or "Outperform" ratings, contributing to a consensus price target averaging around $11.18 to $12.22 across covered analysts. This reflects growing Wall Street optimism regarding Aurora's progress toward commercialization and its long-term market potential.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 18.5% change in AUR stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 66.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)43020268172026Change
Stock Price ($)5.886.9718.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3566.7%
P/S Multiple3,792.62,754.5-27.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,9351,976-2.1%
Cumulative Contribution18.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 8/17/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AUR18.5% 
Market (SPY)7.5%57.8%
Sector (XLY)-1.4%40.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 66.0% change in AUR stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 150.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)13120268172026Change
Stock Price ($)4.206.9766.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)25150.0%
P/S Multiple3,971.12,754.5-30.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,8911,976-4.3%
Cumulative Contribution66.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 8/17/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AUR66.0% 
Market (SPY)12.0%58.8%
Sector (XLY)-3.5%46.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 20.0% change in AUR stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 400.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120258172026Change
Stock Price ($)5.816.9720.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)15400.0%
P/S Multiple10,370.82,754.5-73.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,7851,976-9.7%
Cumulative Contribution20.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 8/17/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AUR20.0% 
Market (SPY)23.3%54.1%
Sector (XLY)6.1%43.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 112.5% change in AUR stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 1766.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120238172026Change
Stock Price ($)3.286.97112.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)265-80.8%
P/S Multiple147.62,754.51766.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,1701,976-40.8%
Cumulative Contribution112.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2023 to 8/17/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AUR112.5% 
Market (SPY)74.7%45.2%
Sector (XLY)37.4%44.4%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AUR Return13%-89%261%44%-39%82%-30%
Peers Return47%-32%45%3%21%-25%36%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%14%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AUR Win Rate62%25%50%50%33%62% 
Peers Win Rate72%33%58%50%55%25% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AUR Max Drawdown--90%-55%-51%-63%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20%-57%-30%-46%-40%-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KDK, GOOGL, MBLY, APTV, TSLA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/17/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventAURS&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-44.1%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven79.0%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven44 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-36.1%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven56.5%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven79 days31 days

Compare to KDK, GOOGL, MBLY, APTV, TSLA

In The Past

Aurora Innovation's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventAURS&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-44.1%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven79.0%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven44 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-36.1%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven56.5%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven79 days31 days

Compare to KDK, GOOGL, MBLY, APTV, TSLA

In The Past

Aurora Innovation's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Aurora Innovation (AUR)

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Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) is a technology company focused on developing and deploying self-driving systems for a range of vehicles. Its core business revolves around creating the foundational technology that enables vehicles to operate autonomously, aiming to transform transportation across various sectors.

The company's primary product is the "Aurora Driver," a comprehensive platform that integrates specialized self-driving hardware, advanced software, and essential data services. This platform is designed to provide a complete autonomous driving solution, enabling vehicles to perceive their environment, make decisions, and navigate safely without human intervention.

Aurora's technology is built for broad applicability, targeting integration into diverse vehicle types. Its primary markets and potential customers include the passenger vehicle industry, operators of light commercial vehicles (such as delivery fleets), and the heavy-duty trucking sector, seeking to enhance safety and efficiency within these transportation segments.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

The Android for self-driving vehicles.

Like Waymo or Cruise, but specializing in autonomous trucks and commercial logistics.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Aurora Driver: A comprehensive self-driving technology platform that integrates hardware, software, and data services to enable autonomous operation across passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles, and trucks.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Aurora Innovation (AUR) primarily sells its self-driving technology platform, Aurora Driver, to other companies. Its major customers and partners include:

  • PACCAR (PCAR)
  • Volvo Autonomous Solutions (part of Volvo Group, whose shares trade under ticker VOLVY in the US and VOLV B on Nasdaq Stockholm)
  • Uber Freight (part of Uber Technologies, UBER)
  • Toyota (TM)
  • FedEx (FDX)

AI Analysis | Feedback

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  • PACCAR Inc. (PCAR)
  • Volvo Group (VOLV-B)
  • Continental AG (CON)
  • NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
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AI Analysis | Feedback

Chris Urmson, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman

Chris Urmson is a co-founder of Aurora Innovation, established in 2017, and has served as its CEO and a director since its inception. Prior to co-founding Aurora, he was instrumental in building Google's self-driving program from 2009 to 2016, where he held the position of Chief Technology Officer. Urmson also has decades of experience leading automated vehicle programs, including serving as the Director of Technology for Carnegie Mellon's DARPA Grand and Urban Challenge Teams, which achieved significant placements, including first in 2007.

David Maday, Chief Financial Officer

David Maday has served as Aurora's Chief Financial Officer since June 2023. Before this role, he was the Senior Vice President of Business Development and Product Strategy at Aurora starting in August 2021, and Vice President of Business Development and Product Strategy from September 2020. Prior to joining Aurora, Maday spent over 20 years at General Motors (GM), where he held various senior leadership positions. His roles at GM included Vice President within the Corporate Development and Global Mergers & Acquisitions team from September 2019 to September 2020, and Executive Director from January 2016 to September 2019, where he developed and executed multi-billion dollar partnerships.

James Andrew Bagnell, Co-Founder and Chief Scientist

James Andrew Bagnell is a co-founder of Aurora and currently serves as Chief Scientist. He served as Chief Technical Officer of Aurora from December 2016 until July 2020 and has led software engineering throughout much of Aurora's history. With over two decades of experience at the intersection of machine learning and robotics in industrial and academic roles, he also holds a position as a Consulting Professor at Carnegie Mellon University's Robotics Institute and Machine Learning Department. Before co-founding Aurora, Bagnell was the Head of Perception and Autonomy Architect at Uber's Advanced Technology Group from January 2015 to December 2016 and a professor at Carnegie Mellon from 2004-2018.

Ossa Fisher, President

Ossa Fisher has served as President at Aurora since February 2023. She brings over 20 years of leadership experience in strategy, operations, and business functions across a diverse range of technology organizations. Before joining Aurora, Ms. Fisher was President and Chief Operating Officer at Istation from 2019 to 2022, overseeing various functions including engineering, product, sales, marketing, and customer success.

Nolan Shenai, General Counsel & Secretary

Nolan Shenai holds the position of General Counsel & Secretary at Aurora Innovation. Additional detailed background information on previous companies founded or managed, company sales to acquirers, or a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies was not readily available in the search results.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Aurora Innovation (AUR) primarily revolve around the significant financial demands of developing and commercializing autonomous vehicle technology, coupled with the complex regulatory landscape and intense competition.

  1. Financial Challenges and Capital Requirements: Aurora Innovation faces substantial ongoing operating losses and a high cash burn rate due to the capital-intensive nature of developing self-driving technology. The company has minimal revenue and consistently requires significant additional capital to fund its research and development, as well as its commercialization efforts. This continuous need for financing poses a risk of dilution for shareholders and questions regarding long-term financial sustainability.
  2. Regulatory Hurdles and Market Adoption: The autonomous vehicle industry is subject to evolving and potentially inconsistent regulations across different jurisdictions, which can significantly impact the deployment and commercialization of Aurora's technology. Beyond regulatory approvals, there's also the challenge of achieving widespread public trust and market acceptance for self-driving vehicles, particularly given ongoing safety concerns. Delays in establishing clear regulatory frameworks or slower-than-anticipated adoption rates could impede Aurora's growth and profitability.
  3. Intense Competition and Execution Risk: Aurora operates in a highly competitive market with numerous well-funded companies, including other technology firms and established automotive manufacturers, all vying to develop and deploy autonomous driving solutions. The company also faces significant execution risks in scaling its driverless operations from pilot programs to large-scale commercial networks. This includes challenges in complex integration, real-world validation, and potentially eroding partnerships, which could impact its ability to maintain a competitive edge and achieve its operational targets.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The clear emerging threat to Aurora Innovation is the potential for dominant autonomous vehicle companies, particularly those backed by major tech giants or automotive OEMs (such as Waymo or GM's Cruise), to achieve significant market penetration through a vertically integrated strategy. These entities develop their own full-stack self-driving technology, often control or deeply integrate with their vehicle fleets, and operate their own commercial services (e.g., ride-hailing, trucking). If this integrated model becomes the prevailing and most successful pathway to commercialization, it could significantly diminish the market opportunity for a pure-play technology provider like Aurora, which aims to license its "Aurora Driver" platform to external partners. This approach could reduce the need for potential customers to license third-party self-driving software, as they might instead partner with or be supplanted by these fully integrated competitors.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ: AUR) is developing self-driving technology for the trucking and ride-hailing industries, addressing significant market opportunities in these sectors. For autonomous trucking, Aurora Innovation's management characterizes the total addressable market as approximately $1 trillion. Specifically within the U.S., the self-driving truck technology market is projected to reach a valuation of $5,135.9 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to $14,357.1 billion by 2033. Another estimate for the U.S. autonomous long-haul trucking market valued it at $1.3 billion in 2024 and forecasts growth to $42.6 billion by 2034. The North American autonomous trucks market is projected to reach $65.4 billion by 2035. In the ride-hailing sector, Aurora's management identifies the U.S. ride-hailing market as a $60-$70 billion opportunity. The U.S. robo taxi market was estimated at $0.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow significantly from 2025 to 2030. By 2030, autonomous vehicles are expected to generate $7 billion in annual revenue and capture about 8% of the U.S. rideshare market. The North American autonomous ride-sharing fleets market is expected to surpass $25.1 billion by 2032.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ: AUR) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives in its self-driving technology platform.

  1. Scaling of Commercial Driverless Trucking Operations (Aurora Horizon): The primary driver for near-term revenue growth is the expansion of Aurora's driverless trucking operations. Having launched its first driverless commercial trucking operations in 2025, the company plans to deploy over 200 driverless trucks by the end of 2026. This expansion is expected to nearly triple the addressable market to over 3.6 billion vehicle miles traveled by opening seven additional driverless lanes. Aurora forecasts a 400% year-over-year revenue growth at the midpoint for 2026, targeting $14 million to $16 million. The "Driver-as-a-Service" model will be priced similarly to human driver equivalents.
  2. Expansion of Operational Design Domain (ODD) and Route Network: Aurora's ability to expand its operational routes beyond initial deployments in the Sunbelt (e.g., Dallas to Houston, and Phoenix in 2025) will fuel revenue growth. Future expansion will be guided by customer demand, extending to the Midwest and both coasts. New capabilities in handling adverse weather conditions such as rain, fog, and heavy wind, as well as multi-lane and endpoint deliveries, are critical for enabling broader route expansion and increasing service availability.
  3. Launch of Second-Generation Hardware Kit for Cost Reduction: While not a direct revenue driver, the introduction of a second-generation hardware kit, with production planned by Continental to start in 2027, is expected to significantly reduce hardware costs by over 50%. This substantial cost reduction is anticipated to enhance profitability and potentially allow for more competitive pricing, indirectly stimulating customer adoption and revenue growth in the long run.
  4. Growth in Strategic Partnerships and Customer Acquisition: Aurora's existing partnerships with industry leaders like PACCAR, Toyota, Volvo Trucks, FedEx, Uber Freight, Werner, and Schneider are crucial for scaling. The company has already secured contracts for its anticipated launch capacity, and further customer acquisition, such as the new agreement with Detmar Logistics, will directly lead to the deployment of more driverless trucks and the expansion of service lanes, thereby increasing revenue.
  5. Diversification into Autonomous Ride-Hailing (Aurora Connect): Beyond trucking, Aurora is establishing a foundation for diversification into autonomous ride-hailing services. The integration of the Aurora Driver system into Toyota Sienna minivans is underway, with a commercial launch projected for late 2026. Analysts anticipate initial revenue of $1 million from this segment in 2026, with significant growth expected by 2030, marking a new revenue stream for the company.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Issuance

  • In 2023, Aurora completed a private placement to institutional and strategic investors, raising $600 million.
  • In July 2023, the company also completed a public offering, raising approximately $220 million.
  • In 2024, Aurora completed another public offering, raising $466 million.
  • An at-the-market (ATM) offering in Q3 2025 raised a net of $460 million through the issuance of approximately 80 million shares.

Inbound Investments

  • Aurora received a $600 million investment through a Post IPO private placement round in July 2023, with participation from strategic investors including Uber.

Capital Expenditures

  • Aurora's net cash used in operating activities was $581 million in 2025, reflecting substantial investment in technology, operations, and commercialization.
  • The company's net investment was -$245 million in FY2025.
  • Anticipated average quarterly cash use for 2026 is projected to be $190–$220 million, which will include capital expenditures for ongoing development and commercialization efforts.
  • A primary focus of capital allocation has been on developing the Aurora Driver, including its next-generation sensing suite with proprietary FirstLight Lidar, and a truck program to provide driverless capacity.

Peer Outperformance in Automotive Parts & Equipment

AUR has outperformed 51% of its 37 Automotive Parts & Equipment peers over 5Y. Automotive Parts & Equipment ranks 14th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Automotive Parts & Equipment constituents that AUR has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
66%
of 38 industry peers · 9.1% return
3Y
87%
of 38 industry peers · 112.5% return
5Y
51%
of 37 industry peers · -29.2% return
No Automotive Parts & Equipment peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten AUR by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Automotive Parts & Equipment is AUR's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -4.3%105.0%70.4% LINC 365% · UTI 288% · CVSA 273%
Homebuilding 18 -1.5%33.8%59.0% GRBK 190% · TOL 163% · PHM 157%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 22 21.4%57.0%19.8% RCL 302% · MAR 186% · HLT 178%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -13.1%3.7%13.2% LOW 19% · HD 19% · HVT 13%
Automotive Retail 18 -5.9%0.0%11.4% MUSA 291% · PAG 188% · ORLY 126%
Specialty Stores 7 6.6%22.8%8.4% DKS 117% · SIG 39% · ASO 35%
Home Furnishings 4 5.1%41.5%3.2% SGI 58% · LZB 38% · MHK -32%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -5.4%-25.3%2.1% BRAG 977% · MCRI 117% · RSI 103%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -13.3%18.7%-3.4% HRB 133% · FTDR 97% · SCI 40%
Footwear 9 70.3%43.8%-7.3% WEYS 155% · SHOO 31% · DECK 26%
Distributors 4 -7.8%-24.3%-9.4% ARMK 172% · GPC 24% · LKQ -43%
Restaurants 34 -3.7%-8.0%-11.0% EAT 368% · CAKE 186% · TXRH 147%
Leisure Products 13 -2.6%-22.1%-29.6% GOLF 91% · HAS 20% · MCFT 4%
Automotive Parts & Equipment ← 38 -3.0%-4.7%-30.4% MOD 1551% · GTX 320% · STRT 95%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 27 9.2%-4.5%-38.6% ELA 289% · RL 261% · TPR 254%
Household Appliances 18 10.9%38.1%-39.7% KEQU 173% · HBB 131% · FLXS 121%
Apparel Retail 25 6.7%3.7%-39.7% ANF 191% · DXLG 182% · TJX 122%
Leisure Facilities 12 -8.7%-8.6%-40.4% OSW 193% · JAKK 122% · ESCA 11%
Broadline Retail 15 4.6%10.4%-50.5% DDS 286% · AMZN 63% · M 56%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 -9.5%0.2%-53.1% BBY -2% · GME -53% · UPBD -57%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -68.9%-67.5%-69.1% GM 73% · TSLA 48% · F 47%
Consumer Electronics 11 -21.5%-26.4%-73.9% AXIL 2207% · GRMN 107% · TBCH -52%
Other Specialty Retail 18 -28.3%-46.1%-78.9% BBW 215% · TLF 108% · WINA 101%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AURKDKGOOGLMBLYAPTVTSLAMedian
NameAurora I.Kodiak AIAlphabet Mobileye.Aptiv Tesla  
Mkt Price6.974.15344.009.2350.04339.3029.63
Mkt Cap13.80.84,179.97.610.61,098.312.2
Rev LTM57445,8672,01618,725103,61910,370
Op Inc LTM-970-150147,628-3871,8254,772837
FCF LTM-751-14753,2733886845,755536
FCF 3Y Avg-662-60,2633861,2574,3531,257
CFO LTM-679-121185,6754901,35118,685920
CFO 3Y Avg-619-141,4814701,98315,3271,983

Growth & Margins

AURKDKGOOGLMBLYAPTVTSLAMedian
NameAurora I.Kodiak AIAlphabet Mobileye.Aptiv Tesla  
Rev Chg LTM400.0%-55.5%20.1%5.0%5.3%11.8%8.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--15.5%1.6%-0.7%3.5%2.5%
Rev Chg Q100.0%595.6%24.2%0.4%2.3%25.5%24.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM25.0%72.1%5.5%0.1%0.4%5.9%5.7%
Op Inc Chg LTM-16.0%-109.7%21.6%0.5%-4.1%-17.4%-10.1%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-5.9%-25.6%-57.6%1.3%-26.8%-5.9%
Op Mgn LTM-19,400.0%-2,100.2%33.1%-19.2%9.7%4.6%-7.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--31.9%-17.7%10.0%6.1%8.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3,950.0%1,073.0%0.4%2.2%0.2%-0.8%1.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-13,580.0%-1,694.6%41.6%24.3%7.2%18.0%12.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--36.5%24.2%10.6%15.7%20.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-15,020.0%-2,061.7%11.9%19.2%3.7%5.6%4.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--16.1%19.9%6.7%4.5%11.4%

Valuation

AURKDKGOOGLMBLYAPTVTSLAMedian
NameAurora I.Kodiak AIAlphabet Mobileye.Aptiv Tesla  
Mkt Cap13.80.84,179.97.610.61,098.312.2
P/S2,754.5108.69.43.70.610.610.0
P/Op Inc-14.2-5.228.3-19.55.8230.20.3
P/EBIT-14.2-2.613.9-19.59.7197.93.6
P/E-15.3-2.617.1-1.948.1288.77.6
P/CFO-20.3-6.422.515.47.858.811.6
Total Yield-6.5%-39.2%6.1%-53.8%2.1%0.3%-3.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.9%-2.4%3.2%8.0%0.4%2.4%
D/E0.00.10.00.00.50.00.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.20.5-0.0-0.1

Returns

AURKDKGOOGLMBLYAPTVTSLAMedian
NameAurora I.Kodiak AIAlphabet Mobileye.Aptiv Tesla  
1M Rtn15.0%-3.0%-0.8%0.1%-12.9%-10.9%-1.9%
3M Rtn-6.1%-50.4%-13.3%-1.2%-5.6%-17.2%-9.7%
6M Rtn55.6%-51.8%12.7%0.4%-41.3%-18.7%-9.1%
12M Rtn9.1%-44.1%69.2%-34.1%-32.5%2.6%-14.9%
3Y Rtn112.5%-44.1%172.3%-73.7%-47.8%57.5%6.7%
1M Excs Rtn11.2%-6.9%-4.7%-3.7%-16.8%-14.8%-5.8%
3M Excs Rtn-14.1%-53.4%-17.8%-12.4%-12.5%-24.2%-16.0%
6M Excs Rtn42.3%-65.1%-0.6%-12.9%-54.6%-32.0%-22.4%
12M Excs Rtn-13.5%-63.8%50.3%-53.6%-52.4%-18.6%-35.5%
3Y Excs Rtn47.3%-117.4%94.3%-149.3%-124.8%-35.0%-76.2%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment3006882
Total3006882


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil202520242023
Single Segment-816-748-796
Total-816-748-796


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Single Segment2,1382,235
Total2,1382,235


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$6.97 
Market Cap ($ Bil)13.6 
First Trading Date05/10/2021 
Distance from 52W High-17.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$6.40$5.25
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA9.0%32.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility60.6%63.8%
Downside Capture371.08309.26
Upside Capture273.66253.78
Correlation (SPY)62.2%54.6%
AUR Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta3.362.552.952.892.622.53
Up Beta2.221.371.592.492.782.21
Down Beta3.972.502.482.082.282.32
Up Capture337%302%464%664%540%10492%
Bmk +ve Days11223567138427
Stock +ve Days12223265129367
Down Capture366%274%290%217%174%112%
Bmk -ve Days11212859114326
Stock -ve Days9203060120372

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AUR
AUR6.3%63.7%0.34-
Sector ETF (XLY)2.3%19.4%-0.0143.2%
Equity (SPY)20.9%12.8%1.2154.6%
Gold (GLD)32.1%28.5%0.9728.8%
Commodities (DBC)40.1%20.2%1.55-7.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)14.2%13.9%0.7210.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-46.9%42.7%-1.3738.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AUR
AUR-5.8%91.3%0.33-
Sector ETF (XLY)6.1%24.0%0.2147.6%
Equity (SPY)13.3%17.2%0.6044.4%
Gold (GLD)20.2%18.5%0.8912.3%
Commodities (DBC)10.3%19.6%0.415.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.2%18.9%0.0131.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)6.3%52.7%0.3127.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AUR
AUR-3.1%89.1%0.32-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.2%22.2%0.5047.1%
Equity (SPY)15.3%17.9%0.7343.9%
Gold (GLD)12.3%16.2%0.6212.2%
Commodities (DBC)7.8%18.1%0.355.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.9%20.7%0.2030.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)60.0%66.1%1.0025.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date7312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity195.5 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 715202611.4%
Average Daily Volume25.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity1,976.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares9.9%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/7/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/29/20264.3%11.9% 
5/6/2026-1.8%15.5%-13.2%
2/11/2026-3.2%11.5%-6.4%
10/28/2025-1.9%-13.7%-22.1%
7/30/20250.3%4.3%-0.3%
5/8/2025-6.1%-12.0%-24.1%
2/12/202546.0%28.8%8.1%
10/30/2024-21.8%-14.0%-2.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive986
# Negative101112
Median Positive4.3%11.7%7.8%
Median Negative-4.1%-14.0%-23.8%
Max Positive46.0%28.8%33.7%
Max Negative-21.8%-22.5%-32.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/29/20264.3%11.9% 
5/6/2026-1.8%15.5%-13.2%
2/11/2026-3.2%11.5%-6.4%
10/28/2025-1.9%-13.7%-22.1%
7/30/20250.3%4.3%-0.3%
5/8/2025-6.1%-12.0%-24.1%
2/12/202546.0%28.8%8.1%
10/30/2024-21.8%-14.0%-2.6%
7/31/20241.8%-17.2%11.7%
5/8/20247.4%-13.1%-32.1%
2/14/2024-6.1%-22.5%-31.9%
11/1/20236.1%8.8%33.7%
8/2/20230.0%1.3%2.9%
5/3/20230.7%11.9%7.5%
2/15/2023-5.0%-18.3%-30.0%
11/2/20226.4%-14.9%-23.4%
8/3/2022-5.4%-1.1%-24.4%
5/4/2022-0.7%-17.4%-26.3%
2/16/2022-2.0%-3.2%0.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive986
# Negative101112
Median Positive4.3%11.7%7.8%
Median Negative-4.1%-14.0%-23.8%
Max Positive46.0%28.8%33.7%
Max Negative-21.8%-22.5%-32.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/29/202610-Q
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/11/202610-K
09/30/202510/28/202510-Q
06/30/202507/30/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/14/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202407/31/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202302/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/21/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/29/202610-Q
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/11/202610-K
09/30/202510/28/202510-Q
06/30/202507/30/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/14/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202407/31/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202302/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/21/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/12/202210-Q
03/31/202205/12/202210-Q
12/31/202103/11/202210-K
12/31/202008/12/202210-K/A

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/30/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q3 2026 Driverless Trucks in Operation2022.525   
2026 Revenue14.00 Mil15.00 Mil16.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 15.00 Mil for 2026
2026 TaaS Revenue Run-rate 80.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 80.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Quarterly Cash Use-220.00 Mil-205.00 Mil-190.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: -205.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures 150.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 150.00 Mil for 2026

Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue14.00 Mil15.00 Mil16.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 15.00 Mil for 2026
2026 TaaS Revenue Run-rate 80.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 80.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Quarterly Cash Use190.00 Mil205.00 Mil220.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 205.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures 150.00 Mil    

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue14.00 Mil15.00 Mil16.00 Mil   
2026 Revenue Growth 400.0%    
2026 Driverless Trucks in Operation 200    
2026 Revenue Run-rate 80.00 Mil    
2026 Hardware Cost Reduction 0.5    
2026 Quarterly Cash Use-220.00 Mil-205.00 Mil-190.00 Mil   

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Cash Use-185.00 Mil-180.00 Mil-175.00 Mil   

Insider Activity

Updated 8/13/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Volpi, Michelangelo By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P.Sell81320267.0122,163  Form
2Volpi, Michelangelo By: Yucca (Jersey) SLPSell81320267.01338  Form
3Volpi, Michelangelo By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P.Sell81320267.0014,692  Form
4Volpi, Michelangelo By: Yucca (Jersey) SLPSell81320267.00224  Form
5Volpi, Michelangelo By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P.Sell81320266.991,420,222  Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Volpi, Michelangelo By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P.Sell81320267.0122,163  Form
2Volpi, Michelangelo By: Yucca (Jersey) SLPSell81320267.01338  Form
3Volpi, Michelangelo By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P.Sell81320267.0014,692  Form
4Volpi, Michelangelo By: Yucca (Jersey) SLPSell81320267.00224  Form
5Volpi, Michelangelo By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P.Sell81320266.991,420,222  Form
6Volpi, Michelangelo By: Yucca (Jersey) SLPSell81320266.9921,627  Form
7Volpi, Michelangelo By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P.Sell81120267.0034,181  Form
8Volpi, Michelangelo By: Yucca (Jersey) SLPSell81120267.00520  Form
9Volpi, Michelangelo By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P.Sell81120267.051,826,508  Form
10Volpi, Michelangelo By: Yucca (Jersey) SLPSell81120267.0527,814  Form
11Volpi, Michelangelo By: Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey) L.P.Sell80720267.07177,0851,252,8062,231,435Form
12Volpi, Michelangelo By: Yucca (Jersey) SLPSell80720267.072,69719,08033,979Form
13Wehner, David M DirectBuy61520266.0482,500498,3001,488,975Form
14Uber, Technologies, IncDirectSell60420267.1067,500,000479,250,0001,835,161,218Form
15Hoffman, Reid See FootnotesSell52820267.271,202,354  Form
16Hoffman, Reid See FootnotesSell51920267.51347,6462,609,153451,198Form
17Hoffman, Reid See FootnotesSell51920267.815,498,48742,933,286605,136Form
18Urmson, ChristopherChief Executive OfficerHeld by the Urmson Family Revocable TrustBuy112620253.88258,0001,000,6271,000,627Form
19Bagley, Brittany DirectSell100220255.3950,000269,6752,148,619Form
20Donahoe, John J Held by the Donahoe Living TrustBuy80720256.10162,337989,460989,460Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Aug 18, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Uber Technologies, Inc$1.3 Bil37.3%7Hold13F
Toyota Motor Corp/$195.1 Mil8.0%5Hold13F
Allen Operations LLC$42.8 Mil6.4%36Hold13F
Foxhaven Asset Management, LP$44.2 Mil1.4%14TRIM -8.4%13F
SB Investment Advisers (UK) LTD$81.6 Mil1.1%10Hold13F
Lingotto Investment Management LLP$40.1 Mil0.8%34ADD +19.2%13F
SC US (TTGP), LTD.$36.3 Mil0.4%36Hold13F
Durable Capital Partners LP$6.1 Mil0.1%37TRIM -78.0%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Lingotto Investment Management LLP$40.1 Mil0.8%34ADD +19.2%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Durable Capital Partners LP$6.1 Mil0.1%37TRIM -78.0%13F
Foxhaven Asset Management, LP$44.2 Mil1.4%14TRIM -8.4%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Uber Technologies, Inc$1.3 Bil37.3%7Hold13F
Toyota Motor Corp/$195.1 Mil8.0%5Hold13F
SB Investment Advisers (UK) LTD$81.6 Mil1.1%10Hold13F
Foxhaven Asset Management, LP$44.2 Mil1.4%14TRIM -8.4%13F
Allen Operations LLC$42.8 Mil6.4%36Hold13F
Lingotto Investment Management LLP$40.1 Mil0.8%34ADD +19.2%13F
SC US (TTGP), LTD.$36.3 Mil0.4%36Hold13F
Durable Capital Partners LP$6.1 Mil0.1%37TRIM -78.0%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/17/2026