Kodiak AI (KDK)
Market Price (12/26/2025): $10.49 | Market Cap: $728.1 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Kodiak AI (KDK)
Market Price (12/26/2025): $10.49Market Cap: $728.1 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.0%, Dist 3Y High is -4.0% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -83 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -507% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Autonomous Trucks, and Autonomous Driving Technology. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 44x | |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -516%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -603% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -77% | ||
| Key risksKDK key risks include [1] its precarious financial viability, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Autonomous Trucks, and Autonomous Driving Technology. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.0%, Dist 3Y High is -4.0% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -83 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -507% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 44x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -516%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -603% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -77% |
| Key risksKDK key risks include [1] its precarious financial viability, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Kodiak AI (KDK) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today:1. Kodiak AI completed its business combination with Ares Acquisition Corporation II and began trading on Nasdaq under the symbol KDK in September 2025. This marked one of the largest de-SPAC transactions of 2025, valuing the company at approximately $2.5 billion and raising over $275 million.
2. In October 2025, a fund management company announced it had acquired a 5.7% passive stake in Kodiak AI, leading to a surge in the company's shares. This investment reflected growing market confidence following Kodiak AI's recent merger and public listing.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KDK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 4.9% | 19.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.2% | 14.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KDK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 13.1% | 19.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 8.8% | 14.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/25/2024 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KDK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 19.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.6% | 14.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/26/2023 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KDK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 48.3% | 19.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 41.7% | 14.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KDK Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -57% | 105% | 16% | 19% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 115% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KDK Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 74% | 25% | 53% | 53% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KDK Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -62% | -10% | -33% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AUR, GOOGL, APTV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
KDK has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,463 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company "Kodiak AI" with the stock symbol "KDK" does not appear to be a real publicly traded entity. Therefore, its major products or services cannot be identified.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Kodiak AI (Symbol: KDK) Customer Information
Information regarding a major public company named "Kodiak AI" with the stock symbol KDK could not be reliably identified in standard financial databases or major market listings.
The stock symbol KDK is historically associated with Eastman Kodak Company, which primarily operates in commercial print, advanced materials and chemicals, and brand licensing, and is not primarily identified as a modern artificial intelligence company.
Without a verifiable public company matching both the name "Kodiak AI" and the symbol "KDK", it is not possible to accurately identify and list its major customers or customer categories as requested.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Don Burnette, Founder & CEO
Don Burnette has served as Kodiak's CEO since he founded the company in April 2018. He is recognized as a pioneer in the autonomous vehicle industry, with over a decade of experience in self-driving software development. Before establishing Kodiak, Burnette co-founded Ottomotto, a self-driving truck startup that was acquired by Uber in August 2016. He also served as a Software Technical Lead at Uber Technologies from November 2016 to March 2018, and previously at Google's Self-Driving Car Project (Waymo's predecessor) from May 2010 to February 2016.
Surajit Datta, Chief Financial Officer
Surajit Datta joined Kodiak as Chief Financial Officer in August 2025. He oversees all aspects of Kodiak's financial operations, including Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A), accounting, tax and treasury, investor relations, and internal audit. Prior to Kodiak, Datta served as Vice President of Finance at SentinelOne, Inc., a cybersecurity company, from April 2022 to June 2025. From July 2017 to April 2022, he held senior roles at Arm Inc., a semiconductor IP company, including Vice President of Finance and Vice President of Corporate Development. He brings over 20 years of experience in strategic finance and leadership at publicly traded artificial intelligence, semiconductor, and SaaS companies, as well as at top-tier investment banks, with a proven track record of scaling private and public companies.
Andreas Wendel, Chief Technology Officer
Andreas Wendel has served as Kodiak's Chief Technology Officer since February 2022. He joined Kodiak as a founding engineer in May 2018 and held various roles, including Vice President of Engineering, until February 2022. Before joining Kodiak, Wendel led Software Engineering teams for Waymo, an autonomous driving technology company, from January 2017 to May 2018 as its Perception Tech Lead, and for Waymo's predecessor, Google's Self-Driving Car Project, from August 2013 to December 2016 as a Software Engineer.
Michael Wiesinger, Chief Operating Officer
Michael Wiesinger has served as Kodiak's Chief Operating Officer since April 2025. From October 2019 until April 2025, he held various positions, including Vice President of Commercialization. Prior to his time at Kodiak, Wiesinger worked at Boston Consulting Group from February 2014 to September 2019, most recently as a Project Leader.
Zsuzsanna Major, Chief People Officer
Zsuzsanna Major has served as Kodiak's Chief People Officer since May 2025, having previously been the Vice President of People from October 2018 to May 2025. Before joining Kodiak, Major served as Vice President of People Operations at Kitty Hawk, an autonomous aircraft manufacturer, from March 2010 to March 2018. She also held a Senior HR & Business Operations Manager position at OQO Inc., a computer hardware manufacturing company, from May 2006 to June 2009.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Kodiak AI (KDK) primarily revolve around its financial viability, the potential for significant shareholder dilution, and the inherent challenges in the commercialization and regulatory landscape of autonomous trucking technology.
- Financial Viability and Path to Profitability: Kodiak AI is currently unprofitable and is not projected to reach profitability within the next three years. The company has less than one year of cash runway, and auditors have expressed substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern due to recurring losses and future funding needs. In Q3 2025, Kodiak AI reported a net loss of $269.9 million, significantly impacted by financing and fair-value adjustments related to its public listing. The company's persistent negative net income and the absence of clear revenue growth raise doubts about its path to sustained profitability. The inability to secure necessary capital on favorable terms poses a significant threat to its growth trajectory and financial stability.
- Shareholder Dilution: There is a substantial risk of significant shareholder dilution, particularly from earn-out securities related to its SPAC transaction, which could result in the issuance of up to 75 million additional shares if certain stock price milestones are met. Furthermore, the company's reliance on raising additional capital, as evidenced by a recent $1.56 billion shelf registration, implies further potential dilution for existing shareholders.
- Execution, Market Adoption, and Regulatory Challenges: The entire investment case for Kodiak AI hinges on its successful transition from a cash-burning phase to a profitable state, indicating high execution risk. Delays in execution or unforeseen regulatory setbacks could rapidly deplete the company's cash reserves. The autonomous vehicle industry has a history of high expectations followed by delayed implementations, and Kodiak AI must navigate this complex environment to achieve commercial scale. Additionally, the company faces challenges in adapting its technology to diverse customer needs, intense competition within the autonomous trucking sector, and the evolving landscape of laws and regulations governing autonomous vehicles.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Kodiak AI (symbol: KDK) primarily focuses on developing and deploying AI-powered autonomous vehicle technology for trucking, offering its "Kodiak Driver" platform and "driver-as-a-service" for commercial trucking and public sectors.
The addressable markets for Kodiak AI's main products and services are substantial and include the broader freight transportation market, the autonomous truck market, and the artificial intelligence in logistics market.
Addressable Market Sizes:
- Overall Freight Market:
- Globally: Kodiak AI estimates a total addressable market of over $4 trillion.
- U.S. specific: Kodiak AI estimates a market opportunity of approximately $1 trillion.
- Autonomous Truck Market:
- Globally:
- Valued at $28.4 billion in 2022, projected to reach $85.4 billion by 2030, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.77% from 2023-2030.
- Estimated at $39.46 billion in 2024 and projected to grow to $86.78 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 10.60%.
- Estimated at $40.7 billion in 2024 and expected to reach $179.9 billion by 2035.
- McKinsey projects the autonomous heavy-duty trucking market could reach an aggregated $616 billion in 2035 for China, the United States, and Europe.
- U.S. specific:
- The self-driving truck technology market is projected to reach $14,357.1 billion by 2033, from $5,135.9 billion in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 12.1% from 2024 to 2033.
- North America is projected to reach $65.4 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 14.8% during the forecast period.
- Globally:
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Logistics Market:
- Globally:
- Expected to be worth around $549 billion by 2033, from $12 billion in 2023, growing at a CAGR of 46.7% during the forecast period from 2024 to 2033.
- Estimated at $17.96 billion in 2024, predicted to increase from $26.35 billion in 2025 to approximately $707.75 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 44.40% from 2025 to 2034.
- Projected to reach $599.5 billion by 2033, from $18.2 billion in 2024.
- U.S. specific:
- The U.S. market size was valued at $6.03 billion in 2024 and is expected to be worth around $242.43 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 44.69% from 2025 to 2034.
- Globally:
AI Analysis | Feedback
Kodiak AI (KDK) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives over the next 2-3 years:- Expansion of Driver-as-a-Service (DaaS) Model: Kodiak AI launched its Driver-as-a-Service (DaaS) model in December 2024, which is designed to generate recurring revenue through per-vehicle or per-mile license fees. This model is a direct avenue for scalable revenue as more autonomous trucks are deployed.
- Increased Adoption in Commercial Trucking: Kodiak AI became the first company to publicly announce customer-owned and -operated driverless trucks in commercial service in 2024. Analysts project a significant increase in the number of live trucks, with forecasts of 100 trucks by the end of fiscal year 2026, growing to 850 by the end of fiscal year 2027, and 3,000 by the end of fiscal year 2028. This expansion of their autonomous trucking fleet directly translates to higher service revenue.
- Growth in Public Sector Applications: Beyond commercial trucking, Kodiak AI's "Kodiak Driver" technology is also being utilized in the public sector, including supporting national security initiatives and critical government applications. This segment, which accounted for 89% of their revenue from U.S. Army contracts in 2024, represents a continued and potentially growing revenue stream.
- Strategic Partnerships for Scaling: Partnerships, such as the expanded agreement with ZF for steering systems for 100 driverless trucks, are crucial for scaling the deployment of Kodiak's autonomous technology. These collaborations facilitate the integration of their "Kodiak Driver" into more vehicles, which in turn supports the growth of their DaaS model and overall fleet size.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Kodiak AI (KDK) became a public company in September 2025, following a merger with Ares Acquisition Corporation II, which impacts the availability of 3-5 years of public company capital allocation data.Share Issuance
- In October 2025, Kodiak AI filed a shelf registration for up to US$1.56 billion, offering 184,793,179 shares of common stock and 14,300,000 warrants.
- Kodiak AI's quarterly shares outstanding were 181.21 million as of June 2025.
Inbound Investments
- Through its merger with Ares Acquisition Corporation II in September 2025, Kodiak AI secured over $275 million before expenses, including $145 million in PIPE funding and approximately $62.9 million in trust cash from AACT.
- Soros Fund Management acquired a 5.7% passive stake in Kodiak AI, translating to approximately 9.97 million shares out of 174.96 million outstanding shares as of October 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Kodiak AI reported capital expenditures of -$7.8 million for the fiscal year 2024, -$3.19 million for 2023, and -$3.27 million for 2022.
- In the last 12 months as of November 2025, operating cash flow was -$37.28 million and capital expenditures were -$5.24 million, resulting in a free cash flow of -$42.52 million.
- The company plans to deploy proceeds from its SPAC merger to scale its driverless fleet and increase investment in research and development to advance its autonomous driving technology.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to KDK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.7% | 18.7% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.0% | 6.0% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Kodiak AI
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 43.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.2 |
| Rev LTM | 9,905 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,003 |
| FCF LTM | 779 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,341 |
| CFO LTM | 1,129 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,165 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -248.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -252.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -297.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | -18.6% | -21.5% | 3.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | ||
| Median Negative | -18.6% | -21.5% | |
| Max Positive | 3.1% | ||
| Max Negative | -18.6% | -21.5% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 7282025 | S-4/A 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 8292025 | 424B3 12/31/2024 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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