Kodiak AI (KDK)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $7.0 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Kodiak AI (KDK)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $7.0Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Autonomous Trucks, and Autonomous Driving Technology. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -113 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2966% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.86 | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 319x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -75%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -92% | ||
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 503% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2487%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3067% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 1006% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -52% | ||
| Key risksKDK key risks include [1] its precarious financial viability, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Autonomous Trucks, and Autonomous Driving Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.86 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -113 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2966% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 319x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -75%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -92% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 503% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2487%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3067% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 1006% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -52% |
| Key risksKDK key risks include [1] its precarious financial viability, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Kodiak AI demonstrated substantial operational scaling and revenue growth in its Q4 2025 results, announced on March 10, 2026. The company reported a 37% quarter-over-quarter revenue increase, reaching $1.1 million, surpassing analyst estimates. Key operational milestones included doubling its deployed driverless trucks to 20, a 100% quarter-over-quarter increase, and accumulating over 10,700 cumulative paid driverless hours, representing a 106% increase from the previous quarter. This showcased significant progress in commercializing its autonomous trucking technology and advancing its Autonomy Readiness Measure to 84% by February 2026.
2. Strategic partnerships and defense contracts provided strong validation and expanded market opportunities for Kodiak AI. During the period, Kodiak AI announced key collaborations including a strategic agreement with Bosch on January 5, 2026, to scale autonomous trucking hardware and sensor solutions, and a partnership with NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion on March 13, 2026, for autonomous driving. Furthermore, the company secured a significant contract with the U.S. Marine Corps on February 11, 2026, for autonomous ground vehicle development, diversifying its revenue streams and bolstering its technological credibility.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.2% change in KDK stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.00 | 6.91 | 15.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 4 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | 319.3 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 175 | 175 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KDK | 15.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 17.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | -9.1% | 23.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KDK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 18.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | -0.7% | 21.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KDK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 18.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 15.9% | 21.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KDK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 18.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 94.5% | 21.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KDK Return | - | - | - | - | 47% | -31% | 2% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -57% | 105% | 16% | 18% | -2% | 57% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KDK Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 71% | 25% | 53% | 53% | 56% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KDK Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -25% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -62% | -10% | -33% | -28% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AUR, GOOGL, APTV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
KDK has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,183 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AUR, GOOGL, APTV
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Kodiak AI (KDK)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe Kodiak AI (KDK):
Kodiak AI is like a specialized private equity firm (e.g., Blackstone or KKR), but instead of keeping companies private, its sole mission is to acquire one established private business and bring it to the public stock market.
Imagine Kodiak AI as a publicly-funded investment fund (similar to a venture capital firm like Sequoia Capital) with a 'blank check,' specifically designed to find and acquire one mature private company to make it publicly traded.
AI Analysis | Feedback
* **Initial Business Combination**: As a blank check company, Kodiak AI's primary purpose is to identify and complete a merger, acquisition, or similar business combination with one or more private businesses, thereby bringing them into the public market.AI Analysis | Feedback
Based on the provided background information, Kodiak AI (KDK) is a blank check company, also known as a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC).
As a SPAC, Kodiak AI's primary purpose is to effect a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses. Its activities since inception have been organizational and related to preparing for its offering. The company has not yet selected any business combination target and has not initiated substantive discussions with any target.
Therefore, Kodiak AI (KDK) does not currently have any major customers or categories of customers in the traditional sense, as it is not yet an operating business selling products or services to individuals or other companies. Its current "focus" is on identifying and acquiring a private operating company, which will then become the combined entity.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Don Burnette Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Don Burnette has served as Kodiak's CEO since he founded the company in April 2018. He is recognized as a pioneer in the autonomous vehicle industry, with more than a decade of experience in self-driving software development. Before founding Kodiak, Burnette co-founded Ottomotto, the first self-driving truck startup, which was acquired by Uber in August 2016. He then served as a Software Technical Lead at Uber Technologies from November 2016 to March 2018. Prior to that, he worked as a software technical lead for Google's Self-Driving Car Project (predecessor to Waymo) from May 2010 to February 2016.
Surajit Datta Chief Financial Officer
Surajit Datta is Kodiak's Chief Financial Officer, a role he assumed in August 2025. He brings over 20 years of experience in strategic finance, financial planning and analysis, business partnering, corporate development and strategy, capital raising, and investment banking. Before joining Kodiak, Datta served as Vice President of Finance at SentinelOne, Inc., a cybersecurity company, from April 2022 to June 2025. From July 2017 to April 2022, he held senior finance and corporate development roles at Arm Inc., a semiconductor IP company.
Michael Wiesinger Chief Operating Officer
Michael Wiesinger has served as Kodiak's Chief Operating Officer since April 2025. Prior to this, he held various positions at Kodiak, including Vice President of Commercialization, from October 2019 to April 2025. Before joining Kodiak, Wiesinger worked at Boston Consulting Group from February 2014 to September 2019, most recently as a Project Leader.
Andreas Wendel Chief Technology Officer
Andreas Wendel is the Chief Technology Officer of Kodiak AI. He holds a doctorate and master's degree in computer science from the University of Linz, Austria, and a Ph.D. in Computer Science from Graz University of Technology.
Jordan Coleman Chief Legal and Policy Officer
Jordan Coleman has served as Kodiak's Chief Legal and Policy Officer since March 2023. He previously held the position of Kodiak's General Counsel starting in December 2018. Before his tenure at Kodiak, Coleman practiced corporate and securities law at prominent firms Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati and DLA Piper.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks for Kodiak AI (KDK)
Inability to Complete an Initial Business Combination: Kodiak AI's primary business purpose is to effect a business combination with one or more businesses. As the company has not yet selected any business combination target and has not initiated substantive discussions, there is a significant risk that it may not be able to identify or successfully complete a suitable initial business combination within the required timeframe. If Kodiak AI fails to do so, it would be forced to liquidate, and public shareholders may only receive their pro rata portion of the funds held in the trust account, potentially without any return on their investment and possibly less than their initial investment after expenses.
Intense Competition for Attractive Acquisition Targets: Kodiak AI operates in a highly competitive environment for identifying and securing desirable business combination targets. Many other blank check companies, private equity funds, and strategic acquirers are also seeking to acquire high-growth or established businesses. This competition could make it difficult for Kodiak AI to identify and secure a suitable target on favorable terms, or at all, which could impede its ability to complete an initial business combination.
Risk of Significant Shareholder Redemptions: Even if Kodiak AI identifies a suitable business combination target and its shareholders approve the transaction, a substantial number of public shareholders may choose to redeem their shares for cash. High redemption rates could significantly reduce the amount of cash available in the trust account, making the proposed business combination less attractive to a potential target company or potentially leading to the termination of the transaction. Such redemptions could also impact the combined company's capital structure and ability to execute its business plan post-combination.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Kodiak AI (KDK), an AI-powered autonomous vehicle technology provider, is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key strategies over the next 2-3 years. Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Kodiak AI: * **Scaling and Commercialization of the Kodiak Driver:** The company's core offering, the AI-powered autonomous driving system known as the Kodiak Driver, is a primary revenue generator. Proceeds from its business combination are specifically aimed at accelerating the commercialization of this technology. Increased deployment in more trucks and expanded operational routes directly contribute to revenue growth. * **Expansion of Customer Base and Fleet Utilization:** Kodiak AI focuses on acquiring new customers and expanding engagements with existing ones. For example, Atlas Energy Solutions, an existing customer, operates eight Kodiak trucks and has placed an order for an additional 100 units. Securing more such orders and attracting new clients across the freight industry will be a significant driver of revenue. * **Strategic Expansion into New Verticals:** While primarily focused on long-haul trucking, Kodiak AI is actively expanding its reach into new markets, notably the defense industry. This strategic diversification, evidenced by appointing a lead for its Defense Vertical and securing contracts like the U.S. Marine Corps Autonomous Ground Vehicle Development Contract, opens up new revenue streams beyond commercial freight. * **Technological Advancements and Strategic Partnerships:** Collaborations, such as the partnership with NVIDIA to integrate the DRIVE Hyperion architecture into its next-generation autonomous driving platform, are crucial. These advancements are intended to enhance the Kodiak Driver's capabilities, accelerate deployment, and improve scalability, thereby making the technology more competitive and attractive to customers. Similarly, a strategic agreement with Bosch aims to scale autonomous trucking hardware and sensor solutions. * **Increased Adoption of the Driver-as-a-Service Model:** Kodiak AI's business model involves offering its technology through a "Driver-as-a-Service" model, where customers pay per-mile or per-vehicle licensing fees. As the company expands its operations and customer base, a higher volume of miles driven and more licensed trucks will lead to increased recurring revenue through this service model.AI Analysis | Feedback
- Share Issuance
- Kodiak AI became a publicly listed company on Nasdaq under the ticker KDK in September 2025, following its merger with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Ares Acquisition Corp. II.
- The company filed Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1 to register 184,793,176 shares of Common Stock for resale and 14,300,000 warrants, also covering primary issuances upon conversion of Series A Preferred Stock, exercise of various warrants, and potential earn-out issuances.
- A shelf registration for up to US$1.56 billion in common stock and warrants was closed around October 10, 2025, to facilitate future capital raising.
- Inbound Investments
- In connection with its business combination and IPO in September 2025, Kodiak AI received over $212.5 million from institutional investors, including $145 million in PIPE funding and approximately $62.9 million in trust cash from Ares Acquisition Corp. II (AACT).
- Lightspeed Management Company made a significant investment of $80.16 million in Kodiak AI in the fourth quarter of 2025, acquiring 7,340,475 shares.
- Battery Management Corp. established a new position, acquiring 11,356,669 shares in Kodiak AI for an estimated $124.01 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $10 million in Q4 2025, primarily focused on autonomous vehicle (AV) components deployed on customer trucks.
- For the full year 2025, capital expenditures contributed to a negative free cash flow of $116.5 million.
- Kodiak AI plans to deploy proceeds from its SPAC merger to scale its driverless fleet and increase investment in research and development to advance its autonomous driving technology.
Trade Ideas
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.2 |
| Rev LTM | 10,201 |
| Op Inc LTM | 952 |
| FCF LTM | 706 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,378 |
| CFO LTM | 1,045 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,176 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1,478.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -1,238.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -1,529.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.2 |
| P/S | 163.7 |
| P/EBIT | 4.6 |
| P/E | 11.5 |
| P/CFO | -3.1 |
| Total Yield | -4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -14.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 83.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 18.6% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/10/2026 | 1.9% | -1.8% | |
| 11/12/2025 | -18.6% | -21.5% | 3.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 3.1% | |
| Median Negative | -18.6% | -11.7% | |
| Max Positive | 1.9% | 3.1% | |
| Max Negative | -18.6% | -21.5% | |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/10/2026 | Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/12/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Long-haul driverless operations launch | 0 | ||||||
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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