Tearsheet

Kodiak AI (KDK)


Market Price (12/26/2025): $10.49 | Market Cap: $728.1 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery

Kodiak AI (KDK)


Market Price (12/26/2025): $10.49
Market Cap: $728.1 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.0%, Dist 3Y High is -4.0%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -83 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -507%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Autonomous Trucks, and Autonomous Driving Technology.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 44x
2   Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -516%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -603%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -77%
5   Key risks
KDK key risks include [1] its precarious financial viability, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Autonomous Trucks, and Autonomous Driving Technology.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.0%, Dist 3Y High is -4.0%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -83 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -507%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 44x
5 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -516%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -603%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -77%
8 Key risks
KDK key risks include [1] its precarious financial viability, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KDK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Kodiak AI (KDK) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today:

1. Kodiak AI completed its business combination with Ares Acquisition Corporation II and began trading on Nasdaq under the symbol KDK in September 2025. This marked one of the largest de-SPAC transactions of 2025, valuing the company at approximately $2.5 billion and raising over $275 million.

2. In October 2025, a fund management company announced it had acquired a 5.7% passive stake in Kodiak AI, leading to a surge in the company's shares. This investment reflected growing market confidence following Kodiak AI's recent merger and public listing.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

null
null

Market Drivers

9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025
ReturnCorrelation
KDK  
Market (SPY)4.9%19.7%
Sector (XLI)4.2%14.3%

Fundamental Drivers

null
null

Market Drivers

6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025
ReturnCorrelation
KDK  
Market (SPY)13.1%19.7%
Sector (XLI)8.8%14.3%

Fundamental Drivers

null
null

Market Drivers

12/25/2024 to 12/25/2025
ReturnCorrelation
KDK  
Market (SPY)15.8%19.7%
Sector (XLI)18.6%14.3%

Fundamental Drivers

null
null

Market Drivers

12/26/2023 to 12/25/2025
ReturnCorrelation
KDK  
Market (SPY)48.3%19.7%
Sector (XLI)41.7%14.3%

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KDK Return�������
Peers Return��-57%105%16%19%�
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%18%115%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KDK Win Rate�����67% 
Peers Win Rate�74%25%53%53%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KDK Max Drawdown������ 
Peers Max Drawdown��-62%-10%-33%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AUR, GOOGL, APTV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

KDK has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-22.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven273 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven232 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven312 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,463 days1,480 days

Compare to

In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Kodiak AI (KDK)

We are a blank check company incorporated as a Cayman Islands exempted company for the purpose of effecting a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses, which we refer to as our initial business combination. Our only activities since inception have been organizational activities and those necessary to prepare for this offering. We have not selected any business combination target and we have not, nor has anyone on our behalf, initiated any substantive discussions, directly or indirectly, with any business combination target. Our team has a history of executing transactions in multiple geographies and under varying economic and financial market conditions. Although we may pursue an acquisition in a number of industries or geographies, we intend to capitalize on the broader Ares platform where we believe a combination of our relationships, knowledge and experience across industries can effect a positive transformation or augmentation of an existing business. Our sponsor is an affiliate of Ares, a leading global alternative investment adviser. Given Ares’ investment capabilities, we believe our team has the required investment, operational, due diligence and capital raising resources to effect a business combination with an attractive target and to position it for long-term success in the public markets. While we may pursue an initial business combination target in any industry or sector, geography, or stage of its corporate evolution, we intend to focus our search in North America, Europe or Asia. We will pursue an initial business combination with an established business with scale, attractive growth prospects and sustainable competitive advantages. We believe there is a large universe of such businesses that could benefit from a public listing, and that we will be able to offer a differentiated and compelling value proposition to them. Our executive offices are located at 245 Park Avenue, 44th Floor, New York, New York.

AI Analysis | Feedback

null

AI Analysis | Feedback

The public company "Kodiak AI" with the stock symbol "KDK" does not appear to be a real publicly traded entity. Therefore, its major products or services cannot be identified.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Kodiak AI (Symbol: KDK) Customer Information

Information regarding a major public company named "Kodiak AI" with the stock symbol KDK could not be reliably identified in standard financial databases or major market listings.

The stock symbol KDK is historically associated with Eastman Kodak Company, which primarily operates in commercial print, advanced materials and chemicals, and brand licensing, and is not primarily identified as a modern artificial intelligence company.

Without a verifiable public company matching both the name "Kodiak AI" and the symbol "KDK", it is not possible to accurately identify and list its major customers or customer categories as requested.

AI Analysis | Feedback

null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Don Burnette, Founder & CEO

Don Burnette has served as Kodiak's CEO since he founded the company in April 2018. He is recognized as a pioneer in the autonomous vehicle industry, with over a decade of experience in self-driving software development. Before establishing Kodiak, Burnette co-founded Ottomotto, a self-driving truck startup that was acquired by Uber in August 2016. He also served as a Software Technical Lead at Uber Technologies from November 2016 to March 2018, and previously at Google's Self-Driving Car Project (Waymo's predecessor) from May 2010 to February 2016.


Surajit Datta, Chief Financial Officer

Surajit Datta joined Kodiak as Chief Financial Officer in August 2025. He oversees all aspects of Kodiak's financial operations, including Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A), accounting, tax and treasury, investor relations, and internal audit. Prior to Kodiak, Datta served as Vice President of Finance at SentinelOne, Inc., a cybersecurity company, from April 2022 to June 2025. From July 2017 to April 2022, he held senior roles at Arm Inc., a semiconductor IP company, including Vice President of Finance and Vice President of Corporate Development. He brings over 20 years of experience in strategic finance and leadership at publicly traded artificial intelligence, semiconductor, and SaaS companies, as well as at top-tier investment banks, with a proven track record of scaling private and public companies.


Andreas Wendel, Chief Technology Officer

Andreas Wendel has served as Kodiak's Chief Technology Officer since February 2022. He joined Kodiak as a founding engineer in May 2018 and held various roles, including Vice President of Engineering, until February 2022. Before joining Kodiak, Wendel led Software Engineering teams for Waymo, an autonomous driving technology company, from January 2017 to May 2018 as its Perception Tech Lead, and for Waymo's predecessor, Google's Self-Driving Car Project, from August 2013 to December 2016 as a Software Engineer.


Michael Wiesinger, Chief Operating Officer

Michael Wiesinger has served as Kodiak's Chief Operating Officer since April 2025. From October 2019 until April 2025, he held various positions, including Vice President of Commercialization. Prior to his time at Kodiak, Wiesinger worked at Boston Consulting Group from February 2014 to September 2019, most recently as a Project Leader.


Zsuzsanna Major, Chief People Officer

Zsuzsanna Major has served as Kodiak's Chief People Officer since May 2025, having previously been the Vice President of People from October 2018 to May 2025. Before joining Kodiak, Major served as Vice President of People Operations at Kitty Hawk, an autonomous aircraft manufacturer, from March 2010 to March 2018. She also held a Senior HR & Business Operations Manager position at OQO Inc., a computer hardware manufacturing company, from May 2006 to June 2009.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Kodiak AI (KDK) primarily revolve around its financial viability, the potential for significant shareholder dilution, and the inherent challenges in the commercialization and regulatory landscape of autonomous trucking technology.

  1. Financial Viability and Path to Profitability: Kodiak AI is currently unprofitable and is not projected to reach profitability within the next three years. The company has less than one year of cash runway, and auditors have expressed substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern due to recurring losses and future funding needs. In Q3 2025, Kodiak AI reported a net loss of $269.9 million, significantly impacted by financing and fair-value adjustments related to its public listing. The company's persistent negative net income and the absence of clear revenue growth raise doubts about its path to sustained profitability. The inability to secure necessary capital on favorable terms poses a significant threat to its growth trajectory and financial stability.
  2. Shareholder Dilution: There is a substantial risk of significant shareholder dilution, particularly from earn-out securities related to its SPAC transaction, which could result in the issuance of up to 75 million additional shares if certain stock price milestones are met. Furthermore, the company's reliance on raising additional capital, as evidenced by a recent $1.56 billion shelf registration, implies further potential dilution for existing shareholders.
  3. Execution, Market Adoption, and Regulatory Challenges: The entire investment case for Kodiak AI hinges on its successful transition from a cash-burning phase to a profitable state, indicating high execution risk. Delays in execution or unforeseen regulatory setbacks could rapidly deplete the company's cash reserves. The autonomous vehicle industry has a history of high expectations followed by delayed implementations, and Kodiak AI must navigate this complex environment to achieve commercial scale. Additionally, the company faces challenges in adapting its technology to diverse customer needs, intense competition within the autonomous trucking sector, and the evolving landscape of laws and regulations governing autonomous vehicles.

AI Analysis | Feedback

null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Kodiak AI (symbol: KDK) primarily focuses on developing and deploying AI-powered autonomous vehicle technology for trucking, offering its "Kodiak Driver" platform and "driver-as-a-service" for commercial trucking and public sectors.

The addressable markets for Kodiak AI's main products and services are substantial and include the broader freight transportation market, the autonomous truck market, and the artificial intelligence in logistics market.

Addressable Market Sizes:

  • Overall Freight Market:
    • Globally: Kodiak AI estimates a total addressable market of over $4 trillion.
    • U.S. specific: Kodiak AI estimates a market opportunity of approximately $1 trillion.
  • Autonomous Truck Market:
    • Globally:
      • Valued at $28.4 billion in 2022, projected to reach $85.4 billion by 2030, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.77% from 2023-2030.
      • Estimated at $39.46 billion in 2024 and projected to grow to $86.78 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 10.60%.
      • Estimated at $40.7 billion in 2024 and expected to reach $179.9 billion by 2035.
      • McKinsey projects the autonomous heavy-duty trucking market could reach an aggregated $616 billion in 2035 for China, the United States, and Europe.
    • U.S. specific:
      • The self-driving truck technology market is projected to reach $14,357.1 billion by 2033, from $5,135.9 billion in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 12.1% from 2024 to 2033.
      • North America is projected to reach $65.4 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 14.8% during the forecast period.
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Logistics Market:
    • Globally:
      • Expected to be worth around $549 billion by 2033, from $12 billion in 2023, growing at a CAGR of 46.7% during the forecast period from 2024 to 2033.
      • Estimated at $17.96 billion in 2024, predicted to increase from $26.35 billion in 2025 to approximately $707.75 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 44.40% from 2025 to 2034.
      • Projected to reach $599.5 billion by 2033, from $18.2 billion in 2024.
    • U.S. specific:
      • The U.S. market size was valued at $6.03 billion in 2024 and is expected to be worth around $242.43 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 44.69% from 2025 to 2034.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Kodiak AI (KDK) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives over the next 2-3 years:
  1. Expansion of Driver-as-a-Service (DaaS) Model: Kodiak AI launched its Driver-as-a-Service (DaaS) model in December 2024, which is designed to generate recurring revenue through per-vehicle or per-mile license fees. This model is a direct avenue for scalable revenue as more autonomous trucks are deployed.
  2. Increased Adoption in Commercial Trucking: Kodiak AI became the first company to publicly announce customer-owned and -operated driverless trucks in commercial service in 2024. Analysts project a significant increase in the number of live trucks, with forecasts of 100 trucks by the end of fiscal year 2026, growing to 850 by the end of fiscal year 2027, and 3,000 by the end of fiscal year 2028. This expansion of their autonomous trucking fleet directly translates to higher service revenue.
  3. Growth in Public Sector Applications: Beyond commercial trucking, Kodiak AI's "Kodiak Driver" technology is also being utilized in the public sector, including supporting national security initiatives and critical government applications. This segment, which accounted for 89% of their revenue from U.S. Army contracts in 2024, represents a continued and potentially growing revenue stream.
  4. Strategic Partnerships for Scaling: Partnerships, such as the expanded agreement with ZF for steering systems for 100 driverless trucks, are crucial for scaling the deployment of Kodiak's autonomous technology. These collaborations facilitate the integration of their "Kodiak Driver" into more vehicles, which in turn supports the growth of their DaaS model and overall fleet size.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Kodiak AI (KDK) became a public company in September 2025, following a merger with Ares Acquisition Corporation II, which impacts the availability of 3-5 years of public company capital allocation data.

Share Issuance

  • In October 2025, Kodiak AI filed a shelf registration for up to US$1.56 billion, offering 184,793,179 shares of common stock and 14,300,000 warrants.
  • Kodiak AI's quarterly shares outstanding were 181.21 million as of June 2025.

Inbound Investments

  • Through its merger with Ares Acquisition Corporation II in September 2025, Kodiak AI secured over $275 million before expenses, including $145 million in PIPE funding and approximately $62.9 million in trust cash from AACT.
  • Soros Fund Management acquired a 5.7% passive stake in Kodiak AI, translating to approximately 9.97 million shares out of 174.96 million outstanding shares as of October 2025.

Capital Expenditures

  • Kodiak AI reported capital expenditures of -$7.8 million for the fiscal year 2024, -$3.19 million for 2023, and -$3.27 million for 2022.
  • In the last 12 months as of November 2025, operating cash flow was -$37.28 million and capital expenditures were -$5.24 million, resulting in a free cash flow of -$42.52 million.
  • The company plans to deploy proceeds from its SPAC merger to scale its driverless fleet and increase investment in research and development to advance its autonomous driving technology.

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1Kodiak AI Earnings Notes 
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to KDK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.7%18.7%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.9%6.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
6.0%6.0%-0.4%

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Kodiak AI

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KDKAURGOOGLAPTVMedian
NameKodiak AIAurora I.Alphabet Aptiv  
Mkt Price10.444.10314.0976.7743.60
Mkt Cap0.77.83,796.116.712.2
Rev LTM162385,47719,7949,905
Op Inc LTM-83-862124,0772,0891,003
FCF LTM-99-60873,5521,657779
FCF 3Y Avg--62068,9981,3411,341
CFO LTM-85-577151,4242,3421,129
CFO 3Y Avg--595120,9902,1652,165

Growth & Margins

KDKAURGOOGLAPTVMedian
NameKodiak AIAurora I.Alphabet Aptiv  
Rev Chg LTM--13.4%-1.0%6.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--11.0%7.7%9.4%
Rev Chg Q92.5%-15.9%3.1%15.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.3%100.0%3.8%0.8%3.0%
Op Mgn LTM-506.8%-43,100.0%32.2%10.6%-248.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--29.9%9.8%19.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-61.5%40,500.0%-0.5%0.1%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-516.4%-28,850.0%39.3%11.8%-252.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--35.3%11.0%23.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-603.5%-30,400.0%19.1%8.4%-297.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--20.5%6.8%13.7%

Valuation

KDKAURGOOGLAPTVMedian
NameKodiak AIAurora I.Alphabet Aptiv  
Mkt Cap0.77.83,796.116.712.2
P/S44.03,876.69.80.826.9
P/EBIT-1.4-9.024.98.63.6
P/E-1.4-9.730.616.57.6
P/CFO-8.5-13.425.17.1-0.7
Total Yield-72.6%-10.4%3.5%6.1%-3.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--10.3%3.3%6.5%3.3%
D/E0.10.00.00.50.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.1-0.00.4-0.1

Returns

KDKAURGOOGLAPTVMedian
NameKodiak AIAurora I.Alphabet Aptiv  
1M Rtn74.0%4.6%-2.8%0.5%2.6%
3M Rtn--26.7%27.9%-9.4%-9.4%
6M Rtn--24.1%81.3%13.0%13.0%
12M Rtn--42.2%60.8%34.7%34.7%
3Y Rtn-244.5%254.7%-15.9%244.5%
1M Excs Rtn67.8%1.7%-4.7%-0.8%0.5%
3M Excs Rtn--31.6%22.9%-14.3%-14.3%
6M Excs Rtn--37.0%68.4%0.1%0.1%
12M Excs Rtn--59.9%47.9%17.8%17.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-154.5%176.2%-99.1%154.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil2024
Development of autonomous vehicle technology and related services17
Total17


Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date12152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,345,713
Short Interest: % Change Since 1130202540.7%
Average Daily Volume850,512
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.76
Basic Shares Quantity69,405,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/12/2025-18.6%-21.5%3.1%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive001
# Negative110
Median Positive  3.1%
Median Negative-18.6%-21.5% 
Max Positive  3.1%
Max Negative-18.6%-21.5% 

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 9/30/2025
33120257282025S-4/A 3/31/2025
123120248292025424B3 12/31/2024