Arko Petroleum (APC)
Market Price (8/7/2026): $19.84 | Market Cap: $815.5 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Arko Petroleum (APC)
Market Price (8/7/2026): $19.84Market Cap: $815.5 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 90% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 11x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 90% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 11x |
Qualitative Assessment
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Arko Petroleum (APC) stock has gained about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance.
Arko Petroleum reported a significant increase in net income to $12.2 million for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026, up from $10.0 million in the comparable prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA also rose by 4% to $39.8 million, and total revenues climbed to $1.84 billion from $1.44 billion in fiscal Q2 2025. This strong performance, which included a $0.9 million increase in fuel contribution compared to fiscal Q2 2025, demonstrated improved profitability despite a decrease in gallons sold, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic environment.
2. Strategic Acquisition of U.S. Petroleum Partners (USPP).
On August 6, 2026, Arko Petroleum announced an agreement to acquire U.S. Petroleum Partners for approximately $235 million (excluding inventory). This strategic acquisition is expected to increase annual fuel volumes by approximately 280 million gallons, or 14%, and contribute an additional $30 million in annual Adjusted EBITDA. The deal also expands APC's network by over 400 wholesale locations, bringing its total to more than 2,500, and enhances vertical integration with the addition of two fuel terminals and a transportation fleet.
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Arko Petroleum (APC) stock has gained about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance.
Arko Petroleum reported a significant increase in net income to $12.2 million for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026, up from $10.0 million in the comparable prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA also rose by 4% to $39.8 million, and total revenues climbed to $1.84 billion from $1.44 billion in fiscal Q2 2025. This strong performance, which included a $0.9 million increase in fuel contribution compared to fiscal Q2 2025, demonstrated improved profitability despite a decrease in gallons sold, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic environment.
2. Strategic Acquisition of U.S. Petroleum Partners (USPP).
On August 6, 2026, Arko Petroleum announced an agreement to acquire U.S. Petroleum Partners for approximately $235 million (excluding inventory). This strategic acquisition is expected to increase annual fuel volumes by approximately 280 million gallons, or 14%, and contribute an additional $30 million in annual Adjusted EBITDA. The deal also expands APC's network by over 400 wholesale locations, bringing its total to more than 2,500, and enhances vertical integration with the addition of two fuel terminals and a transportation fleet.
3. Positive Analyst Outlook and Price Targets.
Analysts maintained a consensus "Buy" rating for Arko Petroleum as of August 1, 2026, with four out of four analysts recommending a Strong Buy or Buy. The average 12-month price target stands at $22.80, with individual forecasts ranging from $22.00 to $25.00. This indicates a potential upside of approximately 15% from a recent closing price of $20.18, reflecting continued confidence in the company's strategic direction and financial prospects.
4. Solid Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat.
For fiscal Q1 2026, reported on May 11, 2026, Arko Petroleum posted earnings per share of $0.20, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.1868 by 7.07%. This beat was attributed to margin resilience and operational discipline, which positively influenced investor sentiment and contributed to a 3.88% stock reaction within 24 hours of the earnings announcement.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.0% change in APC stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.69 | 19.81 | 6.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46 | 46 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APC | 6.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.9% | -5.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | -2.5% | 44.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 11.4% | 8.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 14.7% | 23.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 22.6% | 8.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 36.6% | 23.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 73.8% | 8.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 45.3% | 23.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| APC Return | - | - | - | - | - | 15% | 15% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 55% | 23% | 9% | 25% | 70% | 454% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| APC Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 68% | 57% | 50% | 63% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| APC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -26% | -19% | -30% | -28% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CASY, MUSA, MPC, PSX, DK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
APC has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 169 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 145 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -56.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 352 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1117 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -45.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2233 days | 15 days |
In The Past
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -16.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.4% gain to breakeven.
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APC has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -56.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 352 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1117 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -45.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2233 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 484 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 717 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -16.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Arko Petroleum (APC)
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) is an independent energy company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company focuses on discovering new hydrocarbon reserves and developing existing properties to bring these crucial energy resources to market.
Beyond its core exploration and production activities, Anadarko also operates a Midstream segment, providing essential services such as gathering, processing, treating, and transporting oil, natural gas, and NGLs for both its own production and third-party customers, alongside water disposal. The company's Marketing segment is responsible for selling its oil, natural gas, and NGLs to a diverse customer base across the United States and internationally, including anticipated liquefied natural gas production from Mozambique.
Anadarko's operations span key regions including the U.S. onshore, the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, and Alaska, complemented by international holdings in countries like Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, and Mozambique. As of December 31, 2016, the company held significant proved reserves, totaling approximately 1.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent, highlighting its substantial role in the global energy sector.
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Anadarko Petroleum is like a global Chevron or Shell, handling the full journey from discovering new oil and gas fields to delivering them to market.
Anadarko Petroleum is like ConocoPhillips (a major exploration and production company) that also owns its own extensive pipelines, processing plants, and sales channels.
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- Oil and Gas Production: Engages in the exploration, development, and extraction of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
- Midstream Services: Provides gathering, processing, treating, and transportation for oil, natural gas, and NGLs, alongside the gathering and disposal of produced water.
- Marketing and Sales of Hydrocarbons: Sells oil, natural gas, and NGLs in both domestic and international markets, including anticipated liquefied natural gas (LNG).
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Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (symbol: APC) primarily sells its products, which include crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), to other companies rather than directly to individuals. The provided company description does not list specific customer company names.
However, based on its business activities in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of oil and gas, APC's major customers would typically be other businesses in the energy and industrial sectors. These generally include:
- Oil Refiners: Companies that purchase crude oil for processing into refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
- Natural Gas Utilities and Industrial Consumers: Entities that transport and distribute natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers, as well as large industrial facilities and power generation plants that use natural gas as a primary fuel or feedstock.
- Petrochemical Companies: Businesses that utilize natural gas liquids (NGLs) like ethane, propane, and butane as feedstocks for manufacturing plastics and other chemicals.
- Commodity Trading Firms: Companies specializing in the wholesale buying, selling, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs on the global market.
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The global energy transition, driven by the accelerating adoption of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, represents an emerging threat by potentially reducing long-term demand for oil and natural gas, which are Arko Petroleum's core products. Additionally, increasing global and national climate change policies and regulations aimed at decarbonization could elevate operational costs and restrict future exploration and production activities.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Arko Petroleum (APC)
Share Issuance
- Arko Petroleum Corp. completed its initial public offering (IPO) in February 2026, issuing 11,111,111 shares of Class A common stock at $18.00 per share.
- The IPO generated approximately $200 million in gross proceeds.
- The net proceeds from the IPO were primarily allocated to repay borrowings under its GPMP Capital One revolving credit facility, with any remaining funds designated for general corporate purposes.
Capital Expenditures
- Prior to its IPO, as a subsidiary of ARKO Corp., the company undertook a multi-year transformation plan that involved converting company-operated stores to dealer locations and investing in "fas craves" food-focused remodels.
- Since mid-2024, ARKO converted 409 sites, with 256 of these conversions occurring in 2025, contributing approximately $11.8 million in incremental operating income (before general and administrative expenses) in 2025.
- Historically, the parent company, ARKO Corp., did not differentiate between maintenance, growth, and acquisition capital expenditures for its various segments, which makes it challenging to pinpoint specific dollar amounts solely for Arko Petroleum Corp. before its spin-off.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 252.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.3 |
| Rev LTM | 18,620 |
| Op Inc LTM | 945 |
| FCF LTM | 694 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 559 |
| CFO LTM | 1,324 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,120 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 47.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 178.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPMP | 4,848 | 5,623 | 6,213 | 6,650 |
| Wholesale | 2,753 | 2,831 | 3,067 | 3,260 |
| Fleet Fueling | 484 | 525 | 539 | 273 |
| All Other | 50 | 52 | 52 | 7 |
| Inter-segment revenues | -2,554 | -2,663 | -2,903 | -3,104 |
| Total | 5,581 | 6,368 | 6,968 | 7,086 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPMP | 93 | 99 | 102 | 89 |
| Wholesale | 89 | 80 | 80 | 85 |
| Fleet Fueling | 49 | 49 | 41 | 21 |
| All Other | 3 | -0 | 2 | 0 |
| Total | 233 | 227 | 225 | 196 |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.33 | -0.23 | -0.25 | -0.23 | 0.03 | -0.04 |
| Up Beta | 1.49 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.12 | 0.39 | 0.06 |
| Down Beta | -0.68 | -0.11 | 0.27 | 0.88 | 0.09 | 0.40 |
| Up Capture | -14% | -9% | -21% | 15% | 7% | 1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 25 | 35 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Down Capture | -140% | -56% | -87% | -22% | -15% | -8% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 28 | 54 | 54 | 54 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APC | 14.5% | 33.5% | 0.88 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 39.4% | 21.1% | 1.47 | 23.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.5% | 12.9% | 1.37 | 8.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 25.3% | 28.3% | 0.79 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.4% | 19.8% | 1.30 | 8.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.8% | 0.64 | 34.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 43.0% | -1.21 | 3.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APC | 2.7% | 33.5% | 0.88 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 22.5% | 25.8% | 0.77 | 23.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 8.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.9% | 18.5% | 0.78 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 8.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 34.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.0% | 53.0% | 0.38 | 3.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APC | 1.4% | 33.5% | 0.88 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.0% | 29.6% | 0.38 | 23.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 8.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.2% | 0.59 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 8.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 34.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.3% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 3.8% |
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Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/6/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 156.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 156.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Discretionary Cash Flow | 110.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 110.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 New fleet fueling locations | 20 | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Dividends | 0.5 | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 156.00 Mil | -38.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 255.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Discretionary Cash Flow | 110.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackstone, Holdings I LP | See Footnotes | Sell | 5112026 | 19.00 | 25,000 | 475,000 | 2,375,000 | Form | |
| 2 | Blackstone, Holdings I LP | See Footnotes | Buy | 5112026 | 17.66 | 100,000 | 1,766,000 | 2,649,000 | Form | |
| 3 | Friedman, Avram Z | Direct | Buy | 2182026 | 18.00 | 20,000 | 360,000 | 360,000 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackstone, Holdings I LP | See Footnotes | Sell | 5112026 | 19.00 | 25,000 | 475,000 | 2,375,000 | Form | |
| 2 | Blackstone, Holdings I LP | See Footnotes | Buy | 5112026 | 17.66 | 100,000 | 1,766,000 | 2,649,000 | Form | |
| 3 | Friedman, Avram Z | Direct | Buy | 2182026 | 18.00 | 20,000 | 360,000 | 360,000 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
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