Tearsheet

American Financial (AFG)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $136.28 | Market Cap: $11.4 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Multi-line Insurance

American Financial (AFG)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $136.28
Market Cap: $11.4 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Multi-line Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 6.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.7%, FCF Yield is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
  Key risks
AFG key risks include [1] regulatory and competitive threats to its niche market in specialized commercial products, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Digital Transformation in Insurance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Digital Underwriting, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 6.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.7%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Digital Transformation in Insurance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Digital Underwriting, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.5%
6 Key risks
AFG key risks include [1] regulatory and competitive threats to its niche market in specialized commercial products, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AFG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting why American Financial Group (AFG) stock moved by approximately 3.6%: 1. 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat. American Financial Group reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with earnings of $2.69 per share, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.35 per share, representing a 14.47% surprise. Additionally, the company's revenue of $2.25 billion for the quarter also exceeded analyst expectations. 2. 2. Increased Net Investment Income Driven by Higher Interest Rates. The company benefited from an elevated interest rate environment, which boosted its net investment income. For the second quarter of 2025, net investment income, excluding alternative investments, increased by 10% year-over-year due to higher interest rates and increased average balances of invested assets. This positive trend was expected to continue. 3.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AFG Return-16%94%11%-8%24%5%117%
Peers Return-6%27%25%7%30%18%146%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AFG Win Rate50%92%33%50%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate60%57%60%58%67%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AFG Max Drawdown-57%-9%-8%-19%-1%-13% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-6%-6%-14%-0%-5% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CB, TRV, WRB, ACGL, HIG. See AFG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAFGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven399 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven143.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven355 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven849 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-64.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven179.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1003 days1480 days

Compare to CB, TRV, MET, HIG, CNA


In The Past

American Financial's stock fell -28.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/10/2022. A -28.6% loss requires a 40.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About American Financial (AFG)

Better Bets than American Financial (AFG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AFG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for American Financial

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AFGCBTRVWRBACGLHIGMedian
NameAmerican.Chubb Traveler.WR Berkl.Arch Cap.Hartford. 
Mkt Price138.01312.83291.2569.1495.85138.48138.25
Mkt Cap11.5124.365.327.535.438.937.1
Rev LTM8,22558,90048,40914,64519,04827,69223,370
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM1,42313,3219,9853,3306,2955,8656,080
FCF 3Y Avg1,32713,4098,6823,2546,0084,9225,465
CFO LTM1,42313,3219,9853,3986,3415,9886,164
CFO 3Y Avg1,32713,4098,6823,3306,0575,1095,583

Growth & Margins

AFGCBTRVWRBACGLHIGMedian
NameAmerican.Chubb Traveler.WR Berkl.Arch Cap.Hartford. 
Rev Chg LTM0.1%6.7%6.7%11.3%17.5%6.9%6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.2%12.2%10.1%10.6%28.9%8.6%10.4%
Rev Chg Q-2.5%8.2%4.8%12.0%11.0%6.4%7.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.7%2.2%1.2%2.8%2.7%1.6%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM17.3%22.6%20.6%23.2%33.3%21.6%22.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.6%24.8%19.4%25.2%38.6%19.6%22.2%
FCF/Rev LTM17.3%22.6%20.6%22.7%33.0%21.2%21.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.6%24.8%19.4%24.7%38.2%18.9%22.0%

Valuation

AFGCBTRVWRBACGLHIGMedian
NameAmerican.Chubb Traveler.WR Berkl.Arch Cap.Hartford. 
Mkt Cap11.5124.365.327.535.438.937.1
P/S1.51.91.32.11.81.41.6
P/EBIT11.28.58.111.97.28.18.3
P/E15.211.610.716.08.210.511.1
P/CFO8.58.46.39.05.36.37.3
Total Yield12.9%10.0%10.2%7.9%17.8%11.1%10.6%
Dividend Yield6.3%1.3%0.8%1.7%5.6%1.6%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.2%12.9%17.2%14.5%17.3%15.8%15.2%
D/E0.10.20.10.10.10.10.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.3-0.5-0.4

Returns

AFGCBTRVWRBACGLHIGMedian
NameAmerican.Chubb Traveler.WR Berkl.Arch Cap.Hartford. 
1M Rtn-0.6%6.2%2.8%-8.9%4.4%5.3%3.6%
3M Rtn1.3%15.3%6.3%-3.8%9.7%6.5%6.4%
6M Rtn15.5%11.6%10.8%-2.6%6.1%11.8%11.2%
12M Rtn5.7%14.6%21.5%20.6%5.9%29.1%17.6%
3Y Rtn26.4%54.3%68.7%56.7%65.2%97.8%61.0%
1M Excs Rtn-1.4%5.4%2.0%-9.6%3.7%4.6%2.9%
3M Excs Rtn-1.3%13.1%3.9%-5.1%7.3%4.5%4.2%
6M Excs Rtn3.1%-0.8%-1.6%-15.0%-6.2%-0.6%-1.2%
12M Excs Rtn-6.9%3.7%9.1%6.9%-8.5%14.6%5.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-46.2%-17.7%-3.7%-16.1%-0.4%27.2%-9.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Property and casualty insurance7,2766,7806,0945,5065,668
Other591376293266370
Realized gains (losses) on subsidiaries-40423 
Realized gains (losses) on securities-36-116110-75287
Real estate-related entities  5149 
Annuity    1,912
Total7,8277,0406,5525,7698,237


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Property and casualty insurance24,47522,22521,31219,62019,098
Other5,3126,6067,6196,2055,958
Assets of discontinued annuity operations   47,885 
Annuity    45,074
Total29,78728,83128,93173,71070,130


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,208,313
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-17.6%
Average Daily Volume382,898
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.16
Basic Shares Quantity83,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20252.8%8.3%2.2%
8/6/20252.7%5.2%12.4%
5/7/2025-6.1%-4.4%-5.3%
2/5/2025-6.2%-6.5%-5.9%
11/6/20245.0%12.6%16.6%
8/7/2024-0.7%1.8%7.0%
5/2/2024-0.8%1.4%0.9%
2/7/20242.1%0.8%9.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141617
# Negative1087
Median Positive2.4%4.1%6.8%
Median Negative-3.5%-4.4%-5.6%
Max Positive5.0%13.9%26.6%
Max Negative-8.1%-8.7%-12.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021