American Financial (AFG)
Market Price (5/10/2026): $131.32 | Market Cap: $10.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
American Financial (AFG)
Market Price (5/10/2026): $131.32Market Cap: $10.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 5.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.9%, FCF Yield is 15% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Digital Transformation in Insurance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Digital Underwriting, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.4% Key risksAFG key risks include [1] regulatory and competitive threats to its niche market in specialized commercial products, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 5.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.9%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Digital Transformation in Insurance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Digital Underwriting, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.4% |
| Key risksAFG key risks include [1] regulatory and competitive threats to its niche market in specialized commercial products, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Exceeded Expectations.
American Financial Group reported core net operating earnings per share of $2.47 for Q1 2026, marking a significant 36% increase year-over-year. The company's Specialty Property and Casualty (P&C) underwriting profit surged by 66% compared to the prior year, contributing to an improved combined ratio of 90.3%. Furthermore, revenue reached $1.85 billion, exceeding forecasts by approximately 8%.
2. Significant Capital Return to Shareholders.
AFG returned approximately $259 million to its shareholders in the first quarter of 2026. This included a substantial $1.50 per share special dividend paid in February 2026, amounting to $125 million. Additionally, the company repurchased $60 million of its common stock at an average price of $127.12 per share during the same period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.7% change in AFG stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 127.89 | 131.32 | 2.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,225 | 8,111 | -1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.4 | 12.4 | -6.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 83 | 83 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AFG | 2.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 16.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | -3.6% | 29.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.7% change in AFG stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 126.61 | 131.32 | 3.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,284 | 8,111 | -2.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.2% | 10.8% | 17.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.8 | 12.4 | -10.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 84 | 83 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AFG | 3.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | -2.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -1.3% | 23.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.2% change in AFG stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 120.26 | 131.32 | 9.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,278 | 8,111 | -2.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.7% | 10.8% | 1.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.4 | 12.4 | 9.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 84 | 83 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AFG | 9.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 21.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 6.7% | 40.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.8% change in AFG stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 102.73 | 131.32 | 27.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,773 | 8,111 | 19.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.3% | 10.8% | -18.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.7 | 12.4 | 27.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 85 | 83 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AFG | 27.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 35.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 62.1% | 55.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AFG Return | 94% | 11% | -8% | 24% | 5% | -1% | 156% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 25% | 7% | 30% | 18% | -1% | 161% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AFG Win Rate | 92% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 60% | 58% | 67% | 60% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AFG Max Drawdown | -9% | -8% | -19% | -1% | -13% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -6% | -14% | -0% | -5% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CB, TRV, WRB, ACGL, HIG. See AFG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AFG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 330 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 262 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 125 days |
In The Past
American Financial's stock fell -2.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 2.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | AFG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 330 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 262 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 374 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1161 days | 47 days |
In The Past
American Financial's stock fell -2.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 2.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About American Financial (AFG)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe American Financial (AFG) succinctly:
Think of it as a **Chubb for niche commercial and financial insurance**, covering things from trucking fleets to agricultural operations and specialized financial risks.
Imagine a **Travelers that specializes in tailoring insurance for industries with unique and complex risk profiles**, such as marine, excess and surplus lines, or lending institutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Specialty Property & Transportation Insurance: Provides coverage for physical damage and liability for vehicles like buses and trucks, as well as inland, ocean marine, and agricultural-related risks.
- Specialty Casualty Insurance: Offers various liability coverages, including excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella, and workers' compensation insurance.
- Specialty Financial Insurance: Delivers risk management programs for financial institutions, along with fidelity, surety, and trade credit insurance products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
American Financial (AFG) primarily sells its specialty property and casualty insurance products to other companies, rather than individuals.
Due to the nature of the insurance industry, specific customer names are typically not publicly disclosed. However, based on the products and services offered, American Financial serves a diverse range of businesses and institutions. Its major customer categories include:
- Transportation and Logistics Companies: Businesses operating commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks, as well as those involved in inland and ocean marine shipping.
- Agricultural Businesses: Farms and other entities within the agricultural sector that require specialized property and casualty coverage.
- Small to Mid-Sized Businesses: A broad category of commercial enterprises across various industries that utilize AFG's general liability, executive and professional liability, umbrella and excess liability, and workers' compensation insurance programs.
- Financial Institutions: Lending and leasing institutions that leverage AFG's risk management insurance programs, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance.
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Carl H. Lindner III, Co-Chief Executive Officer and Director
Carl H. Lindner III was elected Co-Chief Executive Officer of American Financial Group in January 2005. He has been a director since March 1996 and served as Co-President from 1996 until June 2023. He has been primarily responsible for the Company's property and casualty insurance operations since 1987, having been involved in Great American's property and casualty business since 1975. American Financial Group was founded by his father, Carl Lindner Jr., and his uncle in 1959.
S. Craig Lindner, Co-Chief Executive Officer and Director
S. Craig Lindner was elected Co-Chief Executive Officer of American Financial Group in January 2005. He has served as a director since March 1996 and as Co-President from 1996 until June 2023. From 1999 until its sale in May 2021, he served as Chief Executive Officer of Great American Financial Resources, Inc., an AFG subsidiary focused on traditional fixed and indexed annuities. Mr. Lindner also oversees the investment portfolios for AFG and its affiliated companies. He has been with AFG affiliated companies since 1977. His father, Carl Lindner Jr., was a founder of American Financial Group.
Brian S. Hertzman, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Brian S. Hertzman was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of American Financial Group in August 2020. He joined AFG in 1991 and has held positions of increasing responsibility in finance and accounting, including Vice President and Controller, where he oversaw accounting policies and financial reporting.
John B. Berding, President
John B. Berding was elected President of American Financial Group in June 2023. Since 2011, he has also served as President of American Money Management Corporation (AMMC), an AFG subsidiary providing investment management services. He has over 35 years of experience as an investment professional, holding various investment-related executive positions within AMMC and other AFG subsidiaries prior to his current role.
Michelle A. Gillis, Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer and Chief Administrative Officer
Michelle A. Gillis was appointed Chief Human Resources Officer in 2022 and elected Senior Vice President of American Financial Group in March 2013. Since March 2012, she served as Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer, with responsibilities for Human Resources, Corporate Communications, Real Estate, and various shared service areas. She joined Great American Insurance Company, an AFG subsidiary, in 2004, holding various senior human resource management positions. Previously, Ms. Gillis held senior human resources roles in the financial services sector, including with Fifth Third Bank.
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American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) faces several key risks inherent to the insurance industry, particularly given its focus on specialty property and casualty products. The most significant risks include: 1. Catastrophic Events and Climate Change: As a property and casualty insurer, American Financial Group is highly exposed to potential losses arising from natural disasters and other catastrophic events. The increasing frequency and severity of such events, exacerbated by climate change, can lead to unpredictable and significant claim payouts, impacting the company's financial performance and straining loss ratios. AFG actively attempts to mitigate this risk through individual risk selection and the purchase of reinsurance. 2. Regulatory and Legal Risks, including Social Inflation: American Financial Group operates in a highly regulated environment, and changes in insurance laws, regulations, or accounting standards can significantly impact its operations and profitability. Furthermore, the company faces considerable legal risks, including those from mass tort claims related to issues such as asbestos and environmental matters. "Social inflation," characterized by rising litigation costs and increasingly large jury awards, also puts pressure on the property and casualty insurance industry, and AFG has acknowledged its exposure in certain casualty and excess liability lines. 3. Investment Portfolio Risks and Interest Rate Fluctuations: American Financial Group maintains a robust investment portfolio, valued at $17.18 billion as of December 31, 2025. This portfolio is subject to various market risks, notably interest rate fluctuations, which can significantly affect the fair value and net investment income generated from its fixed maturity investments. The company's alternative investments also carry risks of illiquidity and volatility, which could further impact profitability and financial condition.AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat for American Financial Group (AFG) is the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles. AFG provides "physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks." As autonomous driving technology advances and becomes more prevalent, the frequency and nature of accidents are expected to change significantly. This could lead to a fundamental shift in liability from human drivers and fleet operators to vehicle manufacturers or software providers, potentially reducing demand for traditional commercial auto insurance products and fundamentally disrupting AFG's business model in this segment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) provides a range of specialty property and casualty insurance products primarily within the United States. The addressable markets for their main products and services in the U.S. are as follows:
Property and Transportation Insurance Products
- Commercial Auto (including physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks): This market is a significant component of the overall U.S. property and casualty (P&C) insurance market. The U.S. P&C market is valued at approximately USD 1.10 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.33 trillion by 2030. Commercial auto accounted for 45.12% of the U.S. P&C market's revenue share in 2025. This implies an addressable market of approximately USD 496 billion for commercial auto in 2025.
- Inland Marine Insurance: U.S. inland marine direct premiums written amounted to USD 29.82 billion in 2021.
- Ocean Marine Insurance: A specific, distinct U.S. market size solely for ocean marine insurance is not readily available in the provided search results. However, the broader U.S. marine insurance market, which includes both inland and ocean coverage, was valued at USD 8.76 billion in 2024.
- Agricultural Insurance: The U.S. agricultural insurance market was valued at approximately USD 12.47 billion (USD 12,470.68 million) in 2024.
Specialty Casualty Insurance Products
- Excess and Surplus (E&S) Lines Insurance: The U.S. E&S direct premiums written reached nearly USD 100 billion (USD 98.2 billion) in 2024. Fitch Ratings estimated the E&S market generated nearly USD 117 billion in statutory premiums in 2024, including Lloyd's of London.
- Executive and Professional Liability Insurance: While a precise U.S. dollar market size for this specific segment is not consistently available, the North American professional liability insurance market had over 12.4 million active policies in 2024, with the United States accounting for more than 11 million of these. This falls under the broader U.S. liability insurance market, which was estimated at USD 107.40 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 196.39 billion by 2034.
- General Liability Insurance: Similar to executive and professional liability, general liability is a component of the broader U.S. liability insurance market, which was USD 107.40 billion in 2024. Liability (non-professional) also constituted 38.1% of the total E&S premium volume in 2025.
- Workers' Compensation Insurance: The total direct premiums written in the U.S. workers' compensation market was USD 57.48 billion in 2024. The market size is projected to be USD 51.2 billion in 2026.
Specialty Financial Insurance Products
- Fidelity and Surety Products (Surety Market): The U.S. surety bond industry wrote approximately USD 9.3 billion in premiums in 2023.
- Trade Credit Insurance: The U.S. trade credit insurance market size was valued at USD 2.02 billion in 2023 and approximately USD 2.45 billion (USD 2,449.1 million) in 2025. It is projected to grow to USD 4.07 billion by 2030 or USD 5.68 billion (USD 5,676.4 million) by 2033.
The overall U.S. specialty insurance market, encompassing many of these segments, is projected to reach USD 32.94 billion by 2026.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for American Financial Group (AFG) over the next 2-3 years:
- Sustained Growth in Net Written Premiums through Rate Increases: American Financial Group anticipates overall premium growth in the property and casualty insurance market. This is supported by consistent renewal rate increases across its specialty property and casualty segments. For example, renewal rates in the Property & Transportation Group (excluding workers' compensation) were up approximately 7% in the fourth quarter of 2023, and overall renewal rates in its Specialty Property & Casualty businesses increased by around 9% on average in the first quarter of 2024, with commercial auto liability rates seeing a significant 21% rise. The Specialty Financial Group also experienced strong renewal pricing, up 9% in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the Specialty Casualty Group saw an average renewal rate increase of 11% (excluding workers' compensation) in the fourth quarter of 2024. AFG projects net written premium growth of 3-5% for 2026.
- Expansion and Profitability in Specialty Lines: The company expects revenue growth to be driven by continued strong performance and new business opportunities within its specialized insurance segments. Notably, crop insurance has delivered exceptionally strong profitability, as seen in the fourth quarter of 2025. Growth in the financial institutions business, particularly in lender-placed and residential investor products, has also been a significant driver of higher premiums within the Specialty Financial group. Management is optimistic about the prospects of several new startup businesses and the completion of corrective actions in remediated social inflation-exposed businesses, such as nonprofit and excess liability, which are poised for mid-single-digit growth.
- Improved Returns on Alternative Investments: American Financial Group anticipates that improved returns on its alternative investment portfolio will positively impact net investment income, beginning in the second half of 2026. This is an important component of overall revenue, with the company’s 2026 assumptions including an expected annual return of approximately 8% on its $2.8 billion portfolio of alternative investments. Property and casualty net investment income saw a substantial increase of approximately 21% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the prior year, primarily due to enhanced returns on alternative investments, rising interest rates, and higher invested asset balances.
- Strategic Acquisitions: AFG actively explores opportunities for profitable growth through acquisitions. The acquisition of CRS, for instance, contributed to additional crop premiums and new business opportunities, highlighting the company's strategy to enhance its market presence and revenue through strategic purchases.
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Share Repurchases
- American Financial Group's board of directors approved a new share repurchase program on December 5, 2025, authorizing the company to buy back up to 5,000,000 shares of its common stock. This program replaces the previous one expiring December 31, 2025, and is set to expire after December 31, 2030.
- The company repurchased 799,398 shares of its Common Stock for $99 million in 2025.
- In the second quarter of 2025, AFG returned approximately $39 million to shareholders through share repurchases.
Share Issuance
- American Financial Group issued $350 million in 5.00% Senior Notes due in September 2035, with the proceeds used for general corporate purposes to bolster the company's capital structure.
Capital Expenditures
- Depreciation and amortization, which can indicate capital expenditures, was $86 million in 2025, $81 million in 2024, and $78 million in 2023.
- The company's investment portfolio was valued at $17.18 billion at the end of 2025, representing an 8.4% increase from the 2024-end level, and is primarily focused on investment-grade fixed maturities.
- AFG's capital is deployed to support organic growth within its core businesses and to explore opportunities for expanding its specialty niche businesses through acquisitions and start-ups.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 131.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 34.8 |
| Rev LTM | 23,764 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 5,840 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,727 |
| CFO LTM | 5,942 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,841 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 34.8 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/Op Inc | - |
| P/EBIT | 7.6 |
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | 12.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 68.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -8.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $131.32 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 10.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/06/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $129.35 | $130.04 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 17.3% | 19.4% |
| Downside Capture | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| Upside Capture | 36.46 | 39.22 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 19.9% | 22.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.00 | 0.25 | 0.18 | -0.05 | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| Up Beta | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.50 | 0.66 |
| Down Beta | -3.88 | -0.15 | -0.23 | -0.40 | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| Up Capture | 21% | 30% | 34% | 6% | 24% | 19% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 23 | 35 | 65 | 134 | 401 |
| Down Capture | 32% | 58% | 32% | -2% | 44% | 74% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 20 | 29 | 60 | 118 | 350 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AFG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFG | 13.4% | 19.4% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 5.2% | 14.6% | 0.13 | 42.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 22.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | -7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | -9.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | 40.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.4% | 42.1% | -0.34 | 10.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AFG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFG | 12.3% | 23.0% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.9% | 18.6% | 0.36 | 63.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 45.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | 12.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 46.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 18.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AFG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFG | 14.8% | 30.2% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.6% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 72.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 57.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | -1.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 22.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 58.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 14.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 3.0% | 2.2% | |
| 2/4/2026 | -3.1% | -0.6% | 2.2% |
| 11/5/2025 | 2.8% | 8.3% | 2.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | 2.7% | 5.2% | 12.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | -6.1% | -4.4% | -5.3% |
| 2/5/2025 | -6.2% | -6.5% | -5.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | 5.0% | 12.6% | 16.6% |
| 8/7/2024 | -0.7% | 1.8% | 7.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -4.4% | -5.4% |
| Max Positive | 5.0% | 13.9% | 26.6% |
| Max Negative | -8.1% | -8.7% | -7.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Core Operating Earnings Per Share | 11 | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 Core Operating Return on Equity | 0.18 | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 Net Written Premiums Growth | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Calendar Year Combined Ratio | 0.93 | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 Reinvestment Rate | 0.05 | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 Alternative Investment Return | 0.08 | -20.0% | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.1 for 2025 | ||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Alternative Investment Annual Returns | 0.1 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.1 for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertzman, Brian S | SVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 133.70 | 1,663 | 222,346 | 1,614,184 | Form |
| 2 | Hertzman, Brian S | SVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 142.51 | 1,777 | 253,240 | 1,610,364 | Form |
| 3 | Murray, Amy Y | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 136.63 | 920 | 125,703 | 362,217 | Form | |
| 4 | Lindner, Stephen Craig JR | Indirect #1 | Sell | 8222025 | 134.31 | 10,000 | 1,343,100 | 43,883,106 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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