How Will Deckers Outdoor Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 21, 2026. The company has $14 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $5.4 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.3 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.0 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Deckers Outdoor’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 11%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -10%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/29/2026 | 19.5% | 11.3% | 14.6% |
| 10/23/2025 | -15.2% | -21.1% | -17.0% |
| 5/22/2025 | -19.9% | -16.3% | -18.9% |
| 1/30/2025 | -20.5% | -22.8% | -38.5% |
| 10/24/2024 | 10.6% | 5.8% | 26.4% |
| 5/23/2024 | 14.2% | 20.9% | 7.8% |
| 2/1/2024 | 14.1% | 7.7% | 19.9% |
| 10/26/2023 | 18.9% | 24.0% | 35.5% |
| 5/25/2023 | 3.4% | 5.9% | 13.8% |
| 2/2/2023 | -1.7% | -0.1% | 2.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | -4.1% | -1.0% | 6.5% |
| 7/28/2022 | 9.0% | 9.0% | 14.3% |
| 5/19/2022 | 12.6% | 15.6% | 13.9% |
| 2/3/2022 | -5.7% | -5.0% | -27.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | 3.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
| 7/29/2021 | 1.0% | 7.0% | 4.1% |
| 5/20/2021 | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 10.6% | 9.0% | 13.8% |
| Median Negative | -10.5% | -10.6% | -23.0% |
| Max Positive | 19.5% | 24.0% | 35.5% |
| Max Negative | -20.5% | -22.8% | -38.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 18.4% | 43.1% | 25.8% |
| 3Y History | 17.4% | 49.2% | 26.8% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Deckers Outdoor stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Deckers Outdoor. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| DECK Earnings Dates | DECK | COLM |
| 5/22/2025 | -19.9% | 4.7% |
| 5/23/2024 | 14.2% | 7.4% |
| 5/25/2023 | 3.4% | -15.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | 9.0% | -1.4% |
| 5/19/2022 | 12.6% | -16.0% |
| CORRELATION | 40.7% |
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