Meta Platforms (META)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $677.02 | Market Cap: $1.7 TrilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Meta Platforms (META)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $677.02Market Cap: $1.7 TrilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
META Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Meta Platforms (META) stock experienced a significant movement in the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This decline of 13.4% can be attributed to several key factors that emerged during this time.
1. Major Increase in AI Capital Expenditures and Investor Concerns: Meta Platforms announced a substantial increase in its capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, particularly during its Q3 2025 earnings call on October 29, 2025. This included raising the low end of its capex budget for 2025 to a new range of $70 billion to $72 billion and anticipating a significantly larger increase in 2026. This aggressive spending, reminiscent of prior large investments in the Metaverse with unclear returns, sparked investor anxiety about potential strains on cash flow and profitability, leading to a stock drop of 12-14% following the announcement.
2. One-Time Income Tax Charge in Q3 2025: In its Q3 2025 earnings report, Meta recorded a one-time, non-cash income tax charge of nearly $16 billion. This charge was a result of implementing President Donald Trump's OBBBA tax law and significantly impacted the company's reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, causing it to fall to $1.05 compared to an expected $6.70. While the law is expected to lead to significantly lower taxes in future years, the immediate large charge negatively affected investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| META Return | 33% | 23% | -64% | 194% | 66% | 11% | 217% |
| Peers Return | 93% | 12% | -40% | 57% | 8% | 11% | 145% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| META Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 33% | 92% | 67% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 53% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| META Max Drawdown | -29% | -10% | -74% | 0% | -3% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -15% | -44% | -4% | -18% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, Z, SNAP, STUB. See META Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | META | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 329.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 442 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 381 days | 120 days |
Compare to MSFT, GOOGL, Z, SNAP, STUB
In The Past
Meta Platforms's stock fell -76.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/7/2021. A -76.7% loss requires a 329.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to META. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| 04302024 | META | Meta Platforms | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 38.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302022 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 124.1% | 177.0% | -3.5% |
| 05312022 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -43.5% | 36.7% | -54.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| 04302024 | META | Meta Platforms | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 38.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302022 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 124.1% | 177.0% | -3.5% |
| 05312022 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -43.5% | 36.7% | -54.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Meta Platforms
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family of Apps | 133,006 | 114,450 | 115,655 | 84,826 | |
| Reality Labs | 1,896 | 2,159 | 2,274 | 1,139 | |
| Single Segment | 70,697 | ||||
| Total | 134,902 | 116,609 | 117,929 | 85,965 | 70,697 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family of Apps | 62,871 | 42,661 | 56,946 | 39,294 | |
| Reality Labs | -16,120 | -13,717 | -10,193 | -6,623 | |
| Total | 46,751 | 28,944 | 46,753 | 32,671 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
