Oracle (ORCL)
Market Price (1/28/2026): $176.85 | Market Cap: $506.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Oracle (ORCL)
Market Price (1/28/2026): $176.85Market Cap: $506.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 22 Bil | Key risksORCL key risks include [1] significant financial strain from its aggressive AI data center expansion, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 22 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22% |
| Key risksORCL key risks include [1] significant financial strain from its aggressive AI data center expansion, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Oracle (ORCL) stock has lost about 40% since 9/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Mounting Investor Concerns Over AI Bubble and Valuation: Oracle became a focal point for increasing investor concerns regarding an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, leading to skepticism about the valuations of AI-related stocks. This broader market shift caused investors to scrutinize the significant capital being spent on AI development against the backdrop of future revenue potential.
2. Aggressive Capital Expenditures and Negative Free Cash Flow: The company's commitment to substantial capital expenditures, projected around $50 billion for fiscal year 2026, to build out its AI infrastructure led to increased debt and negative free cash flow in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. This aggressive spending raised concerns about Oracle's financial leverage, with its debt-to-EBITDA ratio climbing to approximately 4.0x, and resulted in a negative outlook on its 'BBB' credit ratings from S&P Global Ratings due to an expected widening of its free operating cash flow deficit.
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1. Mounting Investor Concerns Over AI Bubble and Valuation: Oracle became a focal point for increasing investor concerns regarding an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, leading to skepticism about the valuations of AI-related stocks. This broader market shift caused investors to scrutinize the significant capital being spent on AI development against the backdrop of future revenue potential.
2. Aggressive Capital Expenditures and Negative Free Cash Flow: The company's commitment to substantial capital expenditures, projected around $50 billion for fiscal year 2026, to build out its AI infrastructure led to increased debt and negative free cash flow in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. This aggressive spending raised concerns about Oracle's financial leverage, with its debt-to-EBITDA ratio climbing to approximately 4.0x, and resulted in a negative outlook on its 'BBB' credit ratings from S&P Global Ratings due to an expected widening of its free operating cash flow deficit.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.5% change in ORCL stock from 9/30/2025 to 1/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 1272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 280.01 | 174.90 | -37.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,018 | 61,017 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.1% | 25.3% | 19.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 63.6 | 32.5 | -48.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,826 | 2,864 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 1/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -37.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.4% | 37.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 5.1% | 53.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.5% change in ORCL stock from 6/30/2025 to 1/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 1272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 217.21 | 174.90 | -19.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57,399 | 61,017 | 6.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.7% | 25.3% | 16.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 49.0 | 32.5 | -33.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,807 | 2,864 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 1/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -19.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.9% | 27.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.1% | 46.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.3% change in ORCL stock from 12/31/2024 to 1/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312024 | 1272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 164.56 | 174.90 | 6.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54,933 | 61,017 | 11.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.2% | 25.3% | 19.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.5 | 32.5 | -17.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,790 | 2,864 | -2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2024 to 1/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 6.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.7% | 45.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 27.9% | 56.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 122.7% change in ORCL stock from 12/31/2022 to 1/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312022 | 1272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.55 | 174.90 | 122.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 46,073 | 61,017 | 32.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.1% | 25.3% | 32.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.1 | 32.5 | 34.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,695 | 2,864 | -5.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 122.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2022 to 1/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 122.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.6% | 47.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 142.8% | 54.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORCL Return | 37% | -5% | 31% | 60% | 18% | -6% | 203% |
| Peers Return | 30% | -31% | 64% | 32% | 21% | -1% | 132% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORCL Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 32% | 67% | 68% | 50% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORCL Max Drawdown | -6% | -29% | 0% | -3% | -26% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -37% | -5% | -7% | -19% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, CRM, GOOGL, IBM. See ORCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORCL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 237 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 284 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MSFT, AMZN, CRM, GOOGL, IBM
In The Past
Oracle's stock fell -41.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/15/2021. A -41.1% loss requires a 69.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Oracle (ORCL)
Oracle Corporation provides products and services that address enterprise information technology environments worldwide. Its Oracle cloud software as a service offering include various cloud software applications, including Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise resource planning (ERP), Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise performance management, Oracle Fusion cloud supply chain and manufacturing management, Oracle Fusion cloud human capital management, Oracle Fusion cloud advertising and customer experience, and NetSuite applications suite. The company also offers cloud-based industry solutions for various industries; Oracle application licenses; and Oracle license support services. In addition, it provides cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies, such as the Oracle Database, an enterprise database; Java, a software development language; and middleware, including development tools and others. The company's cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies also comprise cloud-based compute, storage, and networking capabilities through its Oracle cloud infrastructure as a service offerings. Further, it offers infrastructure offerings comprising Oracle autonomous data warehouse cloud service, Oracle autonomous transaction processing cloud service, Internet-of-Things, digital assistant, and blockchain. Additionally, the company provides hardware products and other hardware-related software offerings, including Oracle engineered systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, industry-specific hardware, virtualization software, operating systems, management software, and related hardware services; and consulting services. The company markets and sells its cloud, license, hardware, support, and services offerings directly to businesses in various industries, government agencies, and educational institutions, as well as through indirect channels. Oracle Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
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Oracle is like **Microsoft, but with a primary focus on enterprise databases and business applications.**
Imagine **Amazon Web Services (AWS) combined with SAP**, offering both cloud infrastructure and a vast suite of enterprise software.
Oracle is like **the Cisco of enterprise software and databases**, providing the foundational IT plumbing for large corporations.
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- Oracle Database: Oracle's flagship relational database management system, used for storing and retrieving data for enterprise applications.
- Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI): This service provides a suite of public cloud infrastructure and platform services, including compute, storage, networking, and databases, for building and running applications (Category: Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) & Platform as a Service (PaaS)).
- Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications: These services offer a comprehensive suite of cloud-based enterprise software for functions like Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Human Capital Management (HCM), Supply Chain Management (SCM), and Customer Experience (CX) (Category: Software as a Service (SaaS)).
- Java: A leading programming language and development platform, maintained by Oracle, used for building a wide range of enterprise, web, and mobile applications.
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Oracle (ORCL) primarily sells its software, hardware, and cloud services to other companies (business-to-business or B2B). Its extensive customer base spans a wide range of industries including financial services, telecommunications, retail, manufacturing, healthcare, and government agencies worldwide.
Some of Oracle's major customer companies that are publicly known users of its products and services include:
- Bank of America (BAC)
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
- AT&T Inc. (T)
- Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
- Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM)
These companies, among many others, utilize Oracle's diverse portfolio, which encompasses its leading database technologies, enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems (such as Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications and NetSuite), customer relationship management (CRM) solutions, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) services.
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Major suppliers for Oracle (ORCL) include:
- AMD (AMD)
- Intel (INTC)
- NVIDIA (NVDA)
- Micron Technology (MU)
- Broadcom (AVGO)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM)
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Larry Ellison, Executive Chairman and Chief Technology Officer
Larry Ellison co-founded Oracle Corporation (originally Software Development Laboratories) in 1977 and served as its CEO until 2014, pioneering the relational database industry. He began his career as a computer programmer, notably building a database for the CIA that was code-named "Oracle," which inspired the company's name. Ellison never finished college, having briefly attended the University of Illinois and the University of Chicago. He has a history of diverse investments and board roles, including being an early investor in Theranos, serving on Tesla's board from 2018 to 2022, and currently owning nearly 50% of Paramount Skydance.
Safra Catz, Chief Executive Officer
Safra Catz joined Oracle in 1999. She became president in 2004, served as CFO from 2005 to 2008, and was appointed CEO in 2014, becoming the sole CEO in September 2019 after the passing of co-CEO Mark Hurd. Before her tenure at Oracle, Catz held various investment banking positions at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette. She is recognized for leading numerous acquisitions for Oracle, including the significant $10.5 billion acquisition of PeopleSoft. She has served on the boards of HSBC and The Walt Disney Company, and in August 2025, she joined the board of Paramount Skydance.
Hiroshi "Hank" Kanno, Chief Financial Officer
Hiroshi "Hank" Kanno has served as Oracle's Chief Financial Officer since 2024, overseeing the company's global financial strategy, reporting, and investor relations. He joined Oracle in 2019 as Executive Vice President of Finance, bringing with him extensive experience from prominent investment banking roles at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, where he specialized in the technology sector. Kanno holds an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School and a B.A. in Economics from the University of Tokyo.
Doug Kehring, Executive Vice President, Head of Operations
Doug Kehring joined Oracle in 2000 and currently serves as Executive Vice President and Head of Operations. In this role, he is responsible for facilitating operational changes and efficiencies, and overseeing corporate development, which has involved more than 140 acquisitions during his tenure. His background includes experience in investment banking at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette and RBC Dain Rauscher before joining Oracle. He also oversees various global functions such as corporate real estate and facilities, global procurement, and corporate sustainability initiatives.
Clay Magouyrk, Executive Vice President, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure Development
Clay Magouyrk leads Oracle's Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) engineering organization, where he is responsible for the design and development of the company's second-generation cloud platform. Before joining Oracle, Magouyrk gained experience as a Software Development Engineer at Amazon Web Services (AWS). His expertise encompasses software development, cloud computing, and strategic leadership, which are critical to driving Oracle's cloud initiatives.
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Key Risks to Oracle's Business (ORCL)
- High Capital Expenditure, Increasing Debt, and Negative Free Cash Flow: Oracle is undertaking aggressive investments in AI-driven data center infrastructure, leading to substantial capital expenditures, a significant increase in its debt load (exceeding $93 billion to $111.6 billion), and persistent negative free cash flow. Analysts express concerns about Oracle's capacity to finance this expansion and convert its substantial contract backlog into profitable revenue streams. The company's lease commitments for data center space have surged to $248 billion, representing a timing mismatch with long-term lease agreements (15-19 years) versus shorter customer contracts (around 5 years), which could expose Oracle to risks if demand for AI services declines.
- Customer Concentration Risk: A significant portion of Oracle's Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) and future revenue is dependent on a few large AI customers, notably OpenAI and Meta Platforms. This concentration poses a substantial risk if these key partners experience financial difficulties, reduce their demand for Oracle's services, or choose to diversify their infrastructure providers. Some projections suggest that OpenAI alone could account for up to 33% of Oracle's revenue by 2028.
- Intense Competition in the Cloud Market: Oracle operates within a fiercely competitive technology landscape, contending with established hyperscale cloud providers such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud across its core segments, including cloud infrastructure, database, and enterprise applications. Oracle also faces the challenge of shedding its perception as a legacy database company while aggressively expanding its modern cloud capabilities.
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The increasing preference among enterprises for cloud-native and managed open-source database solutions offered by rival hyperscale cloud providers (e.g., AWS Aurora, Azure SQL Database, Google Cloud Spanner) for new applications and migrations. This trend directly threatens Oracle's historically dominant proprietary database technology by offering more flexible, often more cost-effective, and cloud-optimized alternatives that can lock customers into competing cloud ecosystems, thereby diminishing Oracle's market share and revenue streams from its core database business.
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Oracle (ORCL) operates in several large addressable markets, primarily focusing on cloud computing, enterprise resource planning (ERP) software, and database management systems. The market sizes for these key product and service areas are outlined below:
-
Cloud Computing (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, SaaS, PaaS):
- The global cloud computing market size was estimated at USD 752.44 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 2,390.18 billion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 20.4% from 2025 to 2030.
- Another estimate places the global cloud computing market at approximately USD 912.77 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 5.15 trillion by 2034 at a CAGR of 21.2%.
- The global cloud infrastructure services market reached USD 107 billion in Q3 2025.
- North America held a significant revenue share of approximately 39.0% of the cloud computing market in 2024.
-
Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Software (Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP, NetSuite ERP):
- The global ERP software market was valued at USD 135.9 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 179.8 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 5.7%.
- Other sources indicate the global ERP market size is estimated at USD 73 billion in 2025.
- The global ERP software market size was valued at USD 81.15 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 92.6 billion in 2025 to USD 229.79 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 13.8%.
- The global cloud ERP market stood at USD 47.25 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 117.03 billion by 2030, reflecting a 19.89% CAGR.
- In 2024, Oracle led the global ERP applications market with $8.7 billion in ERP software revenues, securing a 6.63% market share.
-
Database Software (Oracle Database):
- The global database market size is valued at USD 150.38 billion in 2025 and is projected to climb to USD 292.22 billion by 2030, expanding at a 14.21% CAGR.
- The global database management system market size was estimated at USD 100.79 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach USD 241.27 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 13.1%.
- The global relational database market size was valued at USD 69.24 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 155.03 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 10.60%.
- North America dominated the database management system market with a share of 39.6% in 2023.
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Oracle (ORCL) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:
- Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) Growth and AI Partnerships: A primary driver of Oracle's revenue growth is its rapidly expanding Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) business. Management projects OCI revenue to surge by 77% in fiscal year 2026, fueled by robust demand for artificial intelligence (AI) workloads and significant data center expansion. Oracle has established major AI partnerships, notably a five-year, $300 billion AI infrastructure agreement with OpenAI, positioning OCI as a crucial backbone for global AI workloads. Furthermore, OCI's growth is bolstered by strategic multi-cloud collaborations with Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and Google Cloud, which enable enterprises to seamlessly run Oracle's database services across these diverse platforms. Oracle is committed to expanding its global footprint by adding 20 more public cloud regions and investing $25 billion in capital expenditure for data center expansion.
- Expansion of SaaS Applications (Fusion Cloud ERP and NetSuite): Oracle's Software as a Service (SaaS) applications, particularly Fusion Cloud ERP and NetSuite, are consistently contributing to revenue growth. The applications segment, which encompasses ERP SaaS, has increased its share of Oracle's total revenue. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Fusion ERP revenue grew by 17% year-over-year, while NetSuite saw a 16% increase. Both Fusion Cloud and NetSuite Cloud are identified as significant growth drivers within Oracle's SaaS portfolio, exhibiting strong growth rates of 15.6% and 19.4% respectively in fiscal year 2025. The broader cloud ERP market is expected to grow at an 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), providing a favorable environment for Oracle's offerings. Oracle is also enhancing its Fusion Suite by integrating AI agents, further driving demand for its consulting services in this area.
- Advancements in Oracle Autonomous Database and AI Capabilities: The Oracle Autonomous Database is a key innovation expected to drive future revenue. This fully automated and elastic database service supports a wide range of Oracle data types and workloads, including transaction processing, AI, and analytics. The Autonomous Database is specifically designed for AI, enabling businesses to develop scalable AI-powered applications that incorporate AI Vector Search. Its capabilities contribute to accelerated application development, improved uptime, and enhanced data security.
- Modernization and Integration of Cerner (Oracle Health): While the Cerner business (now Oracle Health) has experienced "near-term" challenges and impacted Oracle's growth in previous periods, the company views it as a significant long-term growth opportunity. Oracle is actively integrating Cerner into OCI and upgrading its Millennium platform. A key strategy involves leveraging generative AI within the Cerner electronic health record (EHR) platform and expanding Oracle Health's offerings across the healthcare ecosystem, with the aim of achieving dominance in the healthcare market.
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Share Repurchases
- Oracle executed $5.3 billion in share repurchases during fiscal year 2025, a significant increase from $1.2 billion in the previous fiscal year.
- In fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024, Oracle repurchased approximately $16.2 billion, $16.2 billion, and $16.2 billion, respectively.
- The Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $10.0 billion of common stock in December 2021, under its existing share repurchase program, with no expiration date.
Share Issuance
- Oracle's annual stock-based compensation expense, which contributes to share issuance, has increased from $3.547 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $3.974 billion in fiscal year 2024, and further to $4.674 billion in fiscal year 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Oracle completed the acquisition of Cerner, a health information technology company, for approximately $28.3 billion in cash on June 8, 2022.
- In January 2025, Oracle announced its participation in the "Stargate" joint venture with OpenAI, SoftBank, and MGX, which plans to invest $500 billion over four years in artificial intelligence infrastructure in the United States.
- Oracle announced a $1 billion investment in Spain in June 2024 to enhance AI and cloud computing capabilities, including the creation of a new cloud region in Madrid.
Capital Expenditures
- Oracle's capital expenditures have significantly increased, reaching $21.215 billion in fiscal year 2025, up from $6.866 billion in fiscal year 2024, $8.695 billion in fiscal year 2023, $4.511 billion in fiscal year 2022, and $2.135 billion in fiscal year 2021.
- The company expects its capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be over $35 billion, with forecasts indicating further increases to $42.739 billion in fiscal year 2027 and $61.258 billion in fiscal year 2028.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is the rapid expansion of Oracle's global cloud infrastructure footprint, including building new cloud regions, high-density AI superclusters, and data centers, driven by surging demand for AI-driven workloads and cloud services.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Oracle Stock Shares $158 Bil Success With Investors | 01/28/2026 | |
| PTC, YOU Look Smarter Buy Than Oracle Stock | 01/27/2026 | |
| How Oracle Stock Slipped -40% | 01/24/2026 | |
| Can PTC Outrun Oracle in the Next Rally? | 01/21/2026 | |
| With Oracle Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 01/21/2026 | |
| How Does Oracle Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 01/14/2026 | |
| Oracle Stock Dropped -40%, Here's Why | 01/09/2026 | |
| Wait For A Dip To Buy Oracle Stock | 01/09/2026 | |
| What Could Send Oracle Stock Soaring | 01/03/2026 | |
| Why Oracle Stock Crashed -30%? | 12/25/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Is Oracle Stock Heading for a Fall? | 01/27/2026 | |
| Stronger Bet Than Oracle Stock: PTC Delivers More | 01/27/2026 | |
| Why Oracle Stock Crashed -40%? | 01/24/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: MRNA, INTC, SNDK | Losers: APP, KHC, ORCL | 01/22/2026 | |
| Oracle Stock: Is the Panic Overdone? | 01/21/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 269.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,551.8 |
| Rev LTM | 179,607 |
| Op Inc LTM | 47,840 |
| FCF LTM | 13,188 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16,715 |
| CFO LTM | 71,716 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 58,425 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,551.8 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| P/EBIT | 25.5 |
| P/E | 33.3 |
| P/CFO | 22.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 121.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 44.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud and software | 44,464 | 41,086 | 36,052 | 34,101 | 32,523 |
| Services | 5,431 | 5,594 | 3,205 | 3,021 | 3,106 |
| Hardware | 3,066 | 3,274 | 3,183 | 3,359 | 3,443 |
| Cloud and license revenues | 0 | -2 | -4 | ||
| Total | 52,961 | 49,954 | 42,440 | 40,479 | 39,068 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud and software | 28,514 | ||||
| Hardware | 1,915 | ||||
| Services | 916 | ||||
| Acquisition related and other | -314 | ||||
| Restructuring | -404 | ||||
| Expense allocations and other, net | -419 | ||||
| Stock-based compensation for operating segments | -1,382 | ||||
| General and administrative | -1,548 | ||||
| Amortization of intangible assets | -3,010 | ||||
| Research and development | -8,915 | ||||
| Total | 15,353 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $174.90 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 500.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/12/1986 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -46.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $198.14 | $218.18 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -11.7% | -19.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.4% | 60.0% |
| Downside Capture | 287.68 | 181.44 |
| Upside Capture | -0.50 | 164.57 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 46.3% | 45.3% |
ORCL Betas & Captures as of 12/31/2025
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.04 | 1.76 | 1.41 | 1.67 | 1.45 | 1.34 |
| Up Beta | 5.13 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.10 | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| Down Beta | 4.83 | 4.04 | 2.16 | 2.20 | 1.45 | 1.42 |
| Up Capture | 165% | -22% | 4% | 154% | 285% | 381% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 37 | 72 | 143 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 21 | 31 | 66 | 134 | 413 |
| Down Capture | 224% | 210% | 191% | 196% | 140% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 18 | 27 | 55 | 108 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 20 | 33 | 61 | 117 | 337 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -3.8% | 61.5% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.4% | 27.4% | 0.78 | 56.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 19.3% | 0.62 | 45.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 87.8% | 20.6% | 2.98 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 15.5% | 0.45 | 23.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 16.5% | 0.04 | 16.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.6% | 39.7% | -0.33 | 23.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 24.9% | 39.0% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.5% | 24.6% | 0.67 | 52.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.1% | 17.1% | 0.66 | 48.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.3% | 15.7% | 1.14 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 12.3% | 18.7% | 0.53 | 10.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 26.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 20.0% | 57.9% | 0.55 | 13.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 19.4% | 33.1% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.7% | 24.2% | 0.89 | 58.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 55.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.5% | 14.9% | 0.92 | 3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.9% | 17.6% | 0.42 | 16.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.8% | 0.25 | 35.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 72.5% | 66.5% | 1.11 | 10.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/10/2025 | -10.8% | -20.0% | -8.0% |
| 9/9/2025 | 35.9% | 27.0% | 19.5% |
| 6/11/2025 | 13.3% | 19.6% | 33.5% |
| 3/10/2025 | -3.1% | 3.5% | -16.3% |
| 12/9/2024 | -6.7% | -10.1% | -18.7% |
| 9/9/2024 | 11.4% | 21.8% | 24.6% |
| 6/11/2024 | 13.3% | 16.8% | 17.2% |
| 3/11/2024 | 11.7% | 12.0% | 7.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 18 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 11.7% | 9.5% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -8.5% | -14.9% |
| Max Positive | 35.9% | 27.0% | 33.7% |
| Max Negative | -13.5% | -20.0% | -18.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 11/30/2025 | 12/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/20/2023 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/21/2022 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2022 | 03/11/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hura, Mark | Pres., Global Field Operations | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 196.89 | 15,000 | 2,953,314 | 46,086,859 | Form |
| 2 | Seligman, Naomi O | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 196.61 | 2,223 | 437,064 | 5,032,430 | Form | |
| 3 | Magouyrk, Clayton M | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 192.52 | 10,000 | 1,925,152 | 27,727,964 | Form |
| 4 | Berg, Jeffrey | The Berg Family Trust | Sell | 10302025 | 283.02 | 49,365 | 13,971,267 | 43,018,709 | Form | |
| 5 | Smith, Maria | EVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10232025 | 280.00 | 5,000 | 1,400,000 | 14,583,240 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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