Western Digital (WDC)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $176.56 | Market Cap: $61.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Western Digital (WDC)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $176.56Market Cap: $61.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 217%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 264% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 175% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Hybrid Cloud Solutions, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Hybrid Cloud Solutions, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 217%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 264% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 175% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WDC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining significant positive movement in Western Digital (WDC) stock based on recent information:
1. 1. Strong Financial Performance and Positive Outlook: Western Digital has consistently reported robust financial results, with sequential revenue growth, improved gross margins, and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) often exceeding analyst expectations. For example, in its fiscal first quarter 2025, the company reported $4.10 billion in revenue, up 9% sequentially, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.78, with forecasts for continued revenue and EPS growth in the subsequent quarter. More recently, Q1 Fiscal Year 2026 results (reported October 30, 2025) showed revenue of $2.82 billion, up 27% year over year, with GAAP diluted EPS of $3.07 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.78, surpassing guidance. The company also reported strong free cash flow generation.
2. 2. Emergence of the AI Data Cycle and Increased Demand: The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the "AI Data Cycle," which is driving a substantial increase in demand for data storage solutions. This trend is leading to fundamental shifts across end markets, particularly for cloud providers expanding their data centers, creating new demand drivers for both Flash and HDD products. Western Digital anticipates a 23% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in installed cloud storage from 2024 to 2028.
3.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WDC Return | -11% | 18% | -52% | 66% | 14% | 321% | 304% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 49% | -30% | 60% | 24% | 103% | 383% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WDC Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 92% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 63% | 38% | 63% | 57% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WDC Max Drawdown | -54% | -11% | -54% | -0% | -6% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -6% | -40% | -5% | -6% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: STX, MU, DELL, HPE, NTAP. See WDC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WDC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 518 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 348 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -67.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 203.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2461 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 302.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 391 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NVDA, AMD, MU, STX, NTAP
In The Past
Western Digital's stock fell -60.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/4/2021. A -60.9% loss requires a 155.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WDC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | WDC | Western Digital | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.7% | 40.2% | -7.2% |
| 03312019 | WDC | Western Digital | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.3% | -6.9% | -37.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | WDC | Western Digital | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.7% | 40.2% | -7.2% |
| 03312019 | WDC | Western Digital | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.3% | -6.9% | -37.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Western Digital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 153.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 61.8 |
| Rev LTM | 23,177 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,420 |
| FCF LTM | 1,474 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,032 |
| CFO LTM | 2,172 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,810 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 26.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 24.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 61.8 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 19.0 |
| P/E | 21.8 |
| P/CFO | 13.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 25.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 72.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 74.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 311.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 58.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 66.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 219.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 8.7% | 18.4% | 15.9% |
| 7/30/2025 | 10.2% | 3.3% | 14.9% |
| 4/30/2025 | 8.0% | 9.0% | 29.4% |
| 1/29/2025 | 4.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | 4.7% | -1.5% | 0.2% |
| 7/31/2024 | -9.7% | -16.1% | -6.0% |
| 4/25/2024 | 2.8% | 0.4% | 7.7% |
| 1/25/2024 | -3.5% | -4.9% | -5.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 5.4% | 15.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.9% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 18.4% | 37.2% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -16.1% | -16.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 10/3/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-K 6/27/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/28/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1312025 | 10-Q 12/27/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/27/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8202024 | 10-K 6/28/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/29/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-Q 12/29/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/29/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8222023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/30/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8252022 | 10-K 7/1/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 4/1/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
