Warby Parker (WRBY)
Market Price (5/25/2026): $25.09 | Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Warby Parker (WRBY)
Market Price (5/25/2026): $25.09Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -6.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.7% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 2,301x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% Key risksWRBY key risks include [1] its history of net losses driven by persistently high marketing and administrative expenses. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -6.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 2,301x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% |
| Key risksWRBY key risks include [1] its history of net losses driven by persistently high marketing and administrative expenses. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Mixed Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Subdued 2026 Outlook.
Warby Parker reported its Q4 2025 earnings on February 26, 2026, presenting a mixed picture to investors. While revenue of $212 million met analyst expectations, growing 11.2% year-over-year, the company posted a GAAP EPS of -$0.05, significantly missing analyst estimates of $0.02. Additionally, Adjusted EBITDA of $15.25 million fell short of the $19.89 million forecast. Although the company provided 2026 guidance projecting net revenue between $959 million and $976 million (10-12% growth) and Adjusted EBITDA of $117 million to $119 million, this EBITDA forecast was below analyst estimates. Despite an initial drop, the stock recovered to post a 12.52% gain on the day, suggesting a cautious but not entirely negative market reaction.
2. First Quarter 2026 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Beat Offset by EPS Miss.
On May 7, 2026, Warby Parker announced its Q1 2026 results, showing better-than-expected revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, but a miss on EPS. The company reported revenue of $242.45 million, an 8.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing analysts' expectations of $239.44 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $29.6 million, exceeding the company's guidance. However, EPS was $0.03, missing the consensus estimate of $0.10 or $0.11. Following the report, the stock surged over 23%, indicating investor optimism driven by the strong top-line performance and the reaffirmation of full-year 2026 guidance for revenue ($959 million to $976 million) and Adjusted EBITDA ($117 million to $119 million).
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.6% change in WRBY stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -47.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.51 | 25.09 | -1.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 851 | 891 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.1% | 0.2% | 79.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 4,374.9 | 2,300.9 | -47.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 123 | 123 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WRBY | -1.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 36.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | -2.7% | 10.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.1% change in WRBY stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.59 | 25.09 | 28.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 821 | 891 | 8.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.9 | 3.5 | 19.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 123 | 123 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WRBY | 28.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 33.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 4.8% | 17.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.0% change in WRBY stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.51 | 25.09 | 52.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 771 | 891 | 15.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.6 | 3.5 | 33.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 121 | 123 | -1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WRBY | 52.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 36.0% | 36.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 8.6% | 23.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 138.3% change in WRBY stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 70.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.53 | 25.09 | 138.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 598 | 891 | 48.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.0 | 3.5 | 70.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 116 | 123 | -6.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 138.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WRBY | 138.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.3% | 42.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 18.0% | 27.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WRBY Return | -15% | -71% | 5% | 72% | -10% | 12% | -55% |
| Peers Return | 11% | -21% | -7% | -16% | 44% | -21% | -22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WRBY Win Rate | 25% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 47% | 50% | 44% | 56% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WRBY Max Drawdown | - | -76% | -45% | -28% | -51% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -48% | -40% | -33% | -32% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EYE, BLCO, COO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WRBY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Warby Parker's stock fell -45.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 82.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | WRBY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Warby Parker's stock fell -45.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 82.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Warby Parker (WRBY)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Warby Parker is like Everlane for glasses, offering direct-to-consumer, stylish, and transparently priced eyewear with a strong brand presence online and in stores.
Warby Parker is like an Apple Store for eyewear, combining stylish products, integrated services (eye exams), and a modern, brand-focused retail experience.
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- Eyeglasses: Corrective eyewear designed to improve vision.
- Sunglasses: Eyewear that protects eyes from sunlight, available with or without prescription.
- Specialty Lenses: Lenses with enhanced features such as light responsiveness and blue-light filtering.
- Contact Lenses: Corrective lenses worn directly on the eye instead of frames.
- Eyewear Accessories: Supplemental products like cases, anti-fog sprays, and lens kits to care for eyewear.
- Eye Exams and Vision Tests: Professional services provided to assess eye health and determine vision prescriptions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Warby Parker primarily sells directly to individuals. The company does not have major corporate customers. Here are up to three categories of customers that Warby Parker serves:- Individuals Seeking Prescription Eyewear: This category includes consumers who require prescription eyeglasses or contact lenses for vision correction. This often encompasses individuals looking for specific lens features such as blue-light filtering, light-responsive technology, or progressive lenses.
- Fashion-Conscious Consumers and Sunglass Buyers: This category targets individuals who view eyewear as a fashion accessory, purchasing frames and sunglasses for style, without necessarily needing prescription correction. It also includes those seeking high-quality sunglasses for UV protection.
- Customers Utilizing Integrated Eye Care Services: This group consists of individuals who leverage Warby Parker's in-store eye exams and vision tests, often leading to subsequent purchases of eyewear. These customers value the convenience of an integrated experience that combines eye health services with direct access to eyewear products.
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- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
- Alcon Inc. (ALC)
- CooperCompanies Inc. (COO)
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Neil Blumenthal Co-Founder and Co-Chief Executive Officer
Neil Blumenthal co-founded Warby Parker in 2010. Prior to launching Warby Parker, he served as the director of VisionSpring, a nonprofit social enterprise that trained low-income women to establish businesses selling affordable eyeglasses in developing countries. He also serves as a General Partner of Good Friends, LLC, a venture capital firm, since September 2019. Mr. Blumenthal holds a BA from Tufts University and an MBA from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Dave Gilboa Co-Founder and Co-Chief Executive Officer
Dave Gilboa co-founded Warby Parker in 2010. Before Warby Parker, he was an associate at the merchant bank Allen & Company, where he invested in seed-stage and venture-stage healthcare and digital media companies and advised on M&A transactions. He also worked at Bain & Company, developing business strategies, and held roles at The TriZetto Group, Genomic Health, and Crescendo Bioscience. Mr. Gilboa also serves as a General Partner of Good Friends, LLC, a venture capital firm, since September 2019. He earned a BS in Bioengineering from UC Berkeley and an MBA from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Adrian Mitchell Principal Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer
Adrian Mitchell was appointed Principal Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer, effective February 10, 2026. He serves on the Board of Directors of Stanley Black & Decker and is a member of its Audit and Finance & Pension Committees. Mr. Mitchell holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from Louisiana State University.
Sandy Gilsenan SVP Chief Retail and Customer Experience Officer
Sandy Gilsenan oversees Warby Parker's retail operations, customer service, and eye care and vision services. Prior to joining Warby Parker, she held various store and corporate operations roles at Gap Inc. for both Banana Republic and Old Navy, before moving to Nordstrom and then J. Crew.
Kim Nemser Chief Product and Supply Chain Officer
Kim Nemser leads Warby Parker's merchandising, planning, product strategy, sourcing and product development, manufacturing, and supply chain operations across the business.
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```htmlHere are the key risks to Warby Parker's business:
- Historical Losses and Profitability Challenges: Warby Parker has a history of operating losses and faces challenges in achieving sustained profitability despite its strong brand and customer base. The company's growth initiatives, including retail store expansions and technology investments, require significant capital, which could impact its financial stability if not managed effectively. High spending on selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, particularly marketing, contributes to these profitability concerns.
- Intense Competitive Pressure: The optical industry is highly competitive, with numerous large integrated players dominating the market. Warby Parker must continuously innovate and maintain its distinct brand positioning to compete effectively against both established eyewear brands and new direct-to-consumer entrants. Failure to do so could result in a loss of market share, especially as competitors may undercut prices and improve their online offerings, potentially squeezing Warby Parker's mid-tier brand positioning.
- Supply Chain and Operational Risks: Warby Parker's reliance on a limited number of suppliers and manufacturers introduces risks to its operational efficiency and ability to meet customer demand. Disruptions in the supply chain, whether due to external factors or internal issues, could adversely affect the company's ability to deliver products timely and maintain its reputation for quality. For instance, a significant portion of the cellulose acetate used in its frames is sourced from a single supplier. The company is also exposed to the impacts of tariffs, particularly from goods sourced in China, which has affected gross margins.
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Warby Parker operates in several addressable markets within the eyewear industry. Based on available data, the estimated market sizes for its main products and services are as follows:
- Eyeglasses (Prescription Eyewear - Frames & Lenses): The estimated addressable market for eyeglasses in the U.S. was approximately $36.8 billion in 2025. This is derived from the U.S. eyewear market size of USD 49.1 billion in 2025, with spectacles (eyeglasses) accounting for 75% of the U.S. eyewear market in 2023.
- Sunglasses: The addressable market for sunglasses in North America was approximately USD 13.59 billion in 2025. This is calculated based on the global sunglasses market size of USD 43.03 billion in 2025, with North America accounting for a 31.60% share. Warby Parker operates in both the United States and Canada, making the North American market size a relevant addressable market.
- Contact Lenses: The addressable market for contact lenses in the U.S. was valued at $10.94 billion in 2022.
- Eye Exams and Vision Tests: The addressable market for eye care services, which includes vision testing and eye exams, in the U.S. was estimated at USD 54.85 billion in 2024.
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Warby Parker (WRBY) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Retail Store Expansion: Warby Parker plans to continue expanding its physical retail footprint, with approximately 50 new store openings anticipated in 2026, primarily in existing markets. This strategic expansion is aimed at enhancing brand awareness and improving customer accessibility. The company sees a long-term potential of at least 900 stores in North America.
- Enhanced Product and Service Offerings: The company anticipates growth from increasing its active customer base and boosting average revenue per customer. This will be achieved through a higher mix of premium lenses like progressives, sustained growth in contact lens sales, broader adoption of in-store eye exams, and the regular introduction of new frame collections and lens enhancements, supported by selective price adjustments.
- Launch of AI-powered Eyewear: Warby Parker is collaborating with Google and Samsung to develop and launch lightweight AI-enabled glasses in 2026. This new product category is expected to tap into a significant new total addressable market.
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Share Repurchases
- Warby Parker authorized a $100 million share repurchase program for its Class A common stock in February 2026.
- This program does not have a fixed expiration date and can be modified, suspended, or terminated at the discretion of the company's Board of Directors.
Share Issuance
- Warby Parker went public via a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on September 29, 2021, under the ticker symbol WRBY.
- Through the direct listing, existing shareholders offered up to 77.7 million Class A shares, with some reports indicating 92.5 million Class A common stock shares were available for public offering.
- Unlike a traditional IPO, the direct listing did not involve the company issuing new shares to raise capital.
Inbound Investments
- As a private company, Warby Parker raised over $536 million in funding.
- Its last funding rounds (Series F and G) in 2020 collectively brought in $245 million in working capital.
- The company has received institutional financial backing from firms such as T. Rowe Price and Tiger Global Management.
Outbound Investments
- Warby Parker announced a strategic partnership with Google on December 4, 2025, to develop AI-powered smart glasses, indicating an investment in new product innovation.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures have remained moderate, typically ranging from $15–20 million per quarter, primarily focused on reinvestment in stores and infrastructure.
- The company opened 47 net new stores in 2025, bringing its total to 323 locations.
- Warby Parker plans to continue its retail footprint expansion, with targets of 40 new stores in 2024 and 50 new store openings projected for 2026.
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to WRBY.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | UHS | Universal Health Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12312021 | WRBY | Warby Parker | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -75.6% | -71.0% | -76.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 3,086 |
| Op Inc LTM | 194 |
| FCF LTM | 72 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 44 |
| CFO LTM | 258 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 171 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 104.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 42.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.2 |
| P/EBIT | 17.5 |
| P/E | 29.9 |
| P/CFO | 15.4 |
| Total Yield | 1.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -23.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -27.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -104.5% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $25.09 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/29/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $23.70 | $24.02 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 5.9% | 4.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 90.0% | 71.3% |
| Downside Capture | 233.66 | 213.30 |
| Upside Capture | 186.14 | 175.54 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 32.4% | 33.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.16 | 2.25 | 2.22 | 2.36 | 2.20 | 1.75 |
| Up Beta | 1.50 | 1.02 | 1.40 | 1.67 | 2.54 | 1.80 |
| Down Beta | 9.48 | 3.85 | 4.09 | 3.41 | 2.81 | 1.63 |
| Up Capture | 167% | 203% | 200% | 325% | 264% | 770% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 24 | 35 | 64 | 123 | 374 |
| Down Capture | 623% | 263% | 214% | 183% | 151% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 29 | 61 | 127 | 371 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WRBY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRBY | 28.8% | 71.1% | 0.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 16.0% | 14.5% | 0.80 | 18.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.5% | 12.0% | 1.86 | 33.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.5% | 26.8% | 1.11 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.9% | 18.7% | 1.77 | -11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.2% | 13.1% | 0.82 | 21.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.3% | 41.8% | -0.78 | 23.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WRBY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRBY | -13.9% | 66.8% | 0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.7% | 14.7% | 0.21 | 31.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 49.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 9.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.4% | 0.42 | 7.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 38.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.6% | 55.3% | 0.41 | 27.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WRBY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRBY | -7.2% | 66.8% | 0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.9% | 16.5% | 0.49 | 31.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 49.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 9.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 17.9% | 0.35 | 7.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 38.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.7% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 27.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 23.5% | 29.3% | |
| 2/26/2026 | 17.8% | 25.7% | 1.0% |
| 11/6/2025 | -11.1% | -8.2% | 11.6% |
| 8/7/2025 | -3.4% | 10.3% | 7.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 2.8% | 8.2% | 33.5% |
| 2/27/2025 | 2.3% | -1.1% | -20.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.8% | 11.3% | 25.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | -0.1% | -9.0% | -6.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 14.9% | 17.2% | 18.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -9.0% | -15.4% |
| Max Positive | 23.5% | 29.3% | 33.7% |
| Max Negative | -24.0% | -21.0% | -23.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 959.00 Mil | 967.50 Mil | 976.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 967.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 11.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 117.00 Mil | 118.00 Mil | 119.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 118.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 New Store Openings | 50 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 50 for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 959.00 Mil | 967.50 Mil | 976.00 Mil | 10.9% | Higher New | Actual: 872.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | -15.4% | -2.0% | Lower New | Actual: 13.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 117.00 Mil | 118.00 Mil | 119.00 Mil | 18.6% | Higher New | Actual: 99.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 New Store Openings | 50 | 11.1% | Higher New | Actual: 45 for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blumenthal, Neil Harris | Co-Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 30.03 | 63,040 | 1,893,091 | 1,506,455 | Form |
| 2 | Singer, Bradley E | Bradley Singer Revocable Trust | Sell | 5152026 | 29.01 | 4,833 | 140,205 | 2,901,000 | Form | |
| 3 | Singer, Bradley E | Bradley Singer Revocable Trust | Sell | 5152026 | 28.51 | 20,167 | 574,961 | 2,988,789 | Form | |
| 4 | Blumenthal, Neil Harris | Co-Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4202026 | 25.09 | 22,442 | 563,070 | 1,258,640 | Form |
| 5 | Blumenthal, Neil Harris | Co-Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4202026 | 24.56 | 75,213 | 1,847,592 | 1,232,293 | Form |
WRBY Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is 0.64x, which is significantly below the 1.0x neutral threshold. Despite a strong competitive position in its niche ('RESILIENT' moat), the potential 15% upside is insufficient to compensate for a plausible 35% downside risk. The speculative valuation requires a degree of execution perfection that is challenged by tangible macroeconomic headwinds and a recent guidance cut.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderThe company is valued on its future growth potential, driven by an aggressive retail expansion and brand equity, rather than current profitability or cash flow. The high forward P/E ratio confirms the market's expectation of significant growth, making growth durability and competitive moat the most critical analytical factors.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver of shareholder value is the successful integration of higher-margin eye exams and value-added lenses (e.g., progressives) into its physical retail footprint. This strategy directly increases average revenue per customer, leverages the fixed costs of new stores, and creates stickier customer relationships.
- Average Revenue per Customer rose 4.8% YoY to $320 in Q3 2025.
- Eye exam revenue grew approximately 41% YoY in Q3 2025, significantly outpacing other segments.
- Customers who receive an eye exam at Warby Parker have the highest lifetime value.
- New stores have a target payback period of 20 months, indicating effective unit economics.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is the weakening macroeconomic environment for the consumer, which is causing a slowdown in demand and a shift towards lower-priced items. This was explicitly confirmed by management's downward revision of full-year 2025 revenue guidance.
- Full-year 2025 revenue guidance was cut from a midpoint of $884M to $872.5M in the Q3 2025 report.
- Management noted a moderation in trends and a mix shift towards lower-priced entry-level frames in Q3 2025.
- The US Personal Savings Rate fell to 3.5% in November 2025, and 4.5% of household debt was delinquent in Q3 2025.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Average Revenue per Customer (ARPU) | Sustained QoQ growth > 1% | This is the most direct measure of the Alpha Driver. If ARPU is growing, it confirms the strategy of upselling to higher-margin services and products is working. |
| Gross Margin % | Stabilization above 54% | This tracks the Anti-Alpha risk. A decline below this level would indicate that negative sales mix-shift and competitive pressures are overwhelming pricing power and efficiency gains. |
| Active Customer Growth YoY | Above 8% | Tracks the underlying health of the brand and customer acquisition engine. A deceleration below this level would suggest the retail expansion is becoming less effective at attracting new customers, putting the entire growth story at risk. |
Retail Expansion: Path to Profitability or Margin Trap?
BULL VIEW
Store growth drives high-margin services like eye exams, increasing Average Revenue per Customer and taking market share from incumbents, leading to operating leverage.
CORE TENSION
Can aggressive physical store expansion lead to profitable scale, or will high fixed costs and competition permanently impair margins amid weakening consumer demand?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The company cut its full-year 2025 revenue guidance in Q3 2025 to a midpoint of $872.5 million from $884 million, signaling deteriorating forward expectations.
BEAR VIEW
High fixed costs, slowing e-commerce, and intense competition will compress margins, especially as the lower-margin contact lens business grows and consumers trade down.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late Feb 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call Watch: Gross Margin performance and FY 2026 guidance. A contraction below 54% would be a major negative signal. |
March 11-14, 2026 | Competitor Product Launch at Vision Expo East Watch: Announcements of lower-cost DTC brands or superior virtual try-on technology from major competitors like EssilorLuxottica or Zenni. |
Monthly | Consumer Credit Data Releases Watch: Sequential increase in the 90+ day delinquency rate for credit cards in the Federal Reserve's G.19 report. |
Ongoing | Macro: 10-Year Treasury Yield Watch: A sustained break and hold above the 4.5% level on the 10-Year Treasury Yield. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 18, 2025 | Post-Earnings High Details: Stock reached a peak of $27.34, marking the high point of optimism following the strong Q2 earnings report before sentiment reversed later in the year. | Flat (0.8%) $27.13 -> $27.34 |
Aug 12, 2025 | Q2 2025 Earnings Details: The company reported strong Q2 results and initially raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance, boosting investor confidence at the time. | Surged +9.8% $24.41 -> $26.81 |
Sep 15, 2025 | Strategic Event: Executive Trading Plans Adopted Details: Co-CEOs adopted Rule 10b5-1 trading plans, signaling intent for future share sales. The market reaction was muted. | Slight -1.5% pullback $26.75 -> $26.36 |
Nov 6, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings & Guidance Cut Details: Despite 15.2% revenue growth, the company missed analyst estimates and cut its full-year 2025 revenue outlook, citing moderating consumer trends. | Plummeted -11.1% $19.05 -> $16.93 |
Nov 17, 2025 | Post-Earnings Low Details: Stock hit a multi-month low of $16.49 as the market continued to digest weak guidance and the broader consumer spending slowdown narrative. | Fell notably by -2.8% $16.96 -> $16.49 |
Jan 13, 2026 | Insider Selling Disclosure Details: Co-CEO David Gilboa sold 80,094 shares under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan. The market disregarded the sale, focusing on broader market strength. | Surged +9.4% $26.58 -> $29.09 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (6.5x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, low revenue visibility, and contested moat force a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
LULU
SECTORUnlike WRBY, LULU has a proven history of high profitability, a strong brand moat allowing for pricing power, and consistent operational execution.
ELF
SECTORELF has a superior growth trajectory, is highly profitable, and operates in the 'affordable luxury' cosmetics space which is more resilient to consumer trade-downs than mid-priced eyewear.
Warby Parker is transitioning from a high-growth, unprofitable e-commerce disruptor to an omnichannel, more moderately growing retailer focused on achieving sustained profitability through physical store expansion and increasing average revenue per customer.
Filter all news through the lens of the path to sustainable profitability and the success of the physical retail expansion strategy.
Sustained positive net income; revenue growth acceleration above 15% YoY; Active Customer growth accelerating sequentially; announcements of successful new store openings driving higher average revenue per customer through integrated eye exams.
Return to GAAP net losses; significant slowdown in store-driven revenue growth; decline in average revenue per customer; market share losses to online competitors like Zenni or large incumbents like EssilorLuxottica.
Quarterly fluctuations in e-commerce vs. retail revenue mix, as the omnichannel strategy is what matters; seasonal marketing campaigns; minor price adjustments on specific frame styles.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is achieving consistent GAAP profitability, driven by the expansion of their physical retail footprint. The company is on track to open 45 new stores in 2025, and customers who get eye exams at these locations tend to have a higher lifetime value. The market is looking for proof that this store expansion model can lead to sustained, profitable growth, which would justify a re-rating from a cash-burning disruptor to a stable retailer.
Eyewear Products (Glasses & Contacts)
$0.9B TTM (100% of Total) · 54.1% MarginWhat It Is
Prescription eyeglasses (including single vision and progressives), sunglasses, and third-party contact lenses. Popular frame models include Winston, Crane, and Esme.
Who Pays & How
Serves a broad consumer base with no single customer concentration. Customers choose Warby Parker for its combination of fashion-forward design, transparent and affordable pricing (starting at $95 for frames with prescription lenses), and a convenient omnichannel (online + physical store) experience. Brand loyalty is built on this value proposition and its "Buy a Pair, Give a Pair" social mission.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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