Volkswagen (VWAGY)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $0 | Market Cap: $0Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Volkswagen (VWAGY)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $0Market Cap: $0Sector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 221% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 15 Bil | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Battery Technology & Metals, Future of Freight, and Renewable Energy Transition. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 15 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Battery Technology & Metals, Future of Freight, and Renewable Energy Transition. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 221% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
VWAGY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Volkswagen (VWAGY) stock moved during the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025:
1. Volkswagen reported a net loss of EUR 313 million for the third quarter of 2025, missing analyst consensus for earnings per share.
2. The company adjusted its 2025 forecast on September 19, 2025, anticipating a negative impact of approximately €5.1 billion on its operating result for the fiscal year, which included a €3 billion non-cash impairment charge related to Porsche.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VWAGY Return | 12% | 42% | -37% | -12% | -23% | 28% | -13% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 40% | -22% | 12% | -9% | -6% | 9% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VWAGY Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 33% | 42% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 42% | 22% | 37% | 37% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VWAGY Max Drawdown | -45% | -3% | -45% | -24% | -29% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -3% | -25% | -6% | -24% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TM, GM, F, AIIO, CJET. See VWAGY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VWAGY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 279.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 271 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 120 days |
Compare to TM, GM, F, AIIO, CJET
In The Past
Volkswagen's stock fell -73.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/17/2021. A -73.6% loss requires a 279.0% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| null | |||
| Volkswagen (VWAGY) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Volkswagen (VWAGY) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Volkswagen (VWAGY) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Volkswagen (VWAGY) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Volkswagen (VWAGY) Stock Has 57% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month | |||
| Volkswagen Market Price | Market Price | ||
| Dates Cached For VWAGY | |||
| Volkswagen Stock Return Comparison | |||
| Volkswagen: Highest And Lowest Correlated Assets | Correlation | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| What’s New With Volkswagen Stock? | June 9th, 2025 | ||
| Trading At A Mere 4x Earnings, Is Volkswagen Stock Attractive? | March 15th, 2024 | ||
| Is VW Stock A Buy At $16? | December 23rd, 2022 | ||
| With Porsche IPO Around The Corner, Is VW Stock Worth A Look? | September 7th, 2022 | ||
| Forecast Of The Day: Volkswagen’s Average Revenue Per Audi Vehicle | June 24th, 2022 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VWAGY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.0% | -1.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.3% | -4.3% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.0% | -1.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.3% | -4.3% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Volkswagen
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 12.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.2 |
| Rev LTM | 257,818 |
| Op Inc LTM | 11,371 |
| FCF LTM | -6,307 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -6,392 |
| CFO LTM | 22,319 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 19,279 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.2 |
| P/S | 0.2 |
| P/EBIT | 6.1 |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | 2.6 |
| Total Yield | 12.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -11.3% |
| D/E | 3.3 |
| Net D/E | 2.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -39.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles | 245,680 | 210,378 | 192,767 | 175,984 | 202,273 |
| Financial Services | 54,128 | 46,657 | 43,963 | 40,778 | 40,160 |
| Commercial Vehicles | 45,731 | 39,516 | 30,092 | 22,156 | 26,444 |
| Power Engineering | 4,044 | 3,565 | 3,278 | 3,640 | 3,997 |
| Reconciliation | -27,300 | -21,067 | -19,899 | -19,673 | -20,242 |
| Total | 322,283 | 279,049 | 250,201 | 222,885 | 252,632 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles | 19,432 | 17,156 | 14,614 | 8,381 | 15,610 |
| Financial Services | 3,786 | 5,638 | 6,045 | 3,012 | 3,212 |
| Commercial Vehicles | 3,714 | 1,588 | 134 | -79 | 1,653 |
| Power Engineering | 366 | 281 | 45 | -482 | -93 |
| Reconciliation | -4,769 | -2,553 | -1,563 | -1,157 | -3,422 |
| Total | 22,529 | 22,110 | 19,275 | 9,675 | 16,960 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
