Vasta Platform (VSTA)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $4.98 | Market Cap: $399.9 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Vasta Platform (VSTA)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $4.98Market Cap: $399.9 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 122%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 118%, FCF Yield is 45% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 202% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include EdTech Platforms, Online Learning & Blended Learning Solutions, and Educational Content Digitization. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 122%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 118%, FCF Yield is 45% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include EdTech Platforms, Online Learning & Blended Learning Solutions, and Educational Content Digitization. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 202% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
VSTA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between approximately July 31, 2025, and November 18, 2025, Vasta Platform (VSTA) experienced an approximate 20.2% stock movement due to several key factors:
1. Positive Performance in the 2025 Sales Cycle: Vasta Platform reported strong financial growth for its full 2025 sales cycle, covering Q4 2024 through Q3 2025. The company's net revenue increased by 13.6% to R$1,737 million, primarily driven by the conversion of Annual Contract Value (ACV) bookings into revenue. Subscription revenue also saw a notable rise of 14.3% during this period.
2. Substantial Free Cash Flow Generation: Vasta demonstrated significant improvements in its cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow for the 2025 sales cycle more than doubled to R$316 million. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, free cash flow surged by 66.9% to R$93 million, indicating enhanced financial health and operational efficiency.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VSTA Return | - | -71% | -5% | 11% | -55% | 148% | -66% |
| Peers Return | 19% | -15% | -10% | -9% | -13% | -22% | -45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VSTA Win Rate | 40% | 8% | 50% | 67% | 17% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 19% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 32% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VSTA Max Drawdown | - | -84% | -13% | -22% | -58% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -19% | -39% | -36% | -35% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LOPE, EDTK, EEIQ, FCHL, GV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VSTA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 569.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
Compare to LOPE, EDTK, EEIQ, FCHL, GV
In The Past
Vasta Platform's stock fell -85.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -85.1% loss requires a 569.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VSTA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.0% | -1.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.3% | -4.3% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.0% | -1.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.3% | -4.3% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vasta Platform
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 1.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,414 |
| Op Inc LTM | 325 |
| FCF LTM | 210 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 161 |
| CFO LTM | 285 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 241 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 7.5 |
| P/E | 11.1 |
| P/CFO | 8.8 |
| Total Yield | 63.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| D/E | 1.5 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -20.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 19.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -21.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -29.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -60.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4172025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4192024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5122023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4262023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5312022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4292022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |