Valens Semiconductor (VLN)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $1.525 | Market Cap: $157.9 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Valens Semiconductor (VLN)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $1.525Market Cap: $157.9 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -59% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -38 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -57% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.6% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -59% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -38 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -57% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
VLN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Valens Semiconductor (VLN) stock moved by -35% for the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to today:
1. Continued Unprofitability and Negative Financial Outlook: Valens Semiconductor's financial guidance for Q3 2025, released in early August 2025, projected an adjusted EBITDA loss ranging from $6.8 million to $7.4 million, indicating a continuation of unprofitability. The company also reported a substantial net profit loss of $23.39 million and consistently negative operating and net margins.
2. Stock Reaching New 52-Week Lows: By late October 2025, Valens Semiconductor's stock plummeted to a new 52-week low of USD 1.66, reflecting significant negative market sentiment and selling pressure. As of early November 2025, the stock was trading at $1.59.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VLN Return | - | -24% | -30% | -54% | 6% | -40% | -85% |
| Peers Return | 46% | 17% | -5% | 13% | -4% | 0% | 78% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VLN Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 42% | 32% | 42% | 35% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VLN Max Drawdown | - | -39% | -64% | -63% | -29% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -12% | -30% | -12% | -16% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VLN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 459.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -2.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 148 days |
Compare to QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ
In The Past
Valens Semiconductor's stock fell -82.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -82.1% loss requires a 459.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Valens Semiconductor Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VLN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -13.6% | -13.6% | -13.6% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.5% | -3.5% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.0% | -4.0% | -4.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -13.6% | -13.6% | -13.6% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.5% | -3.5% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.0% | -4.0% | -4.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Valens Semiconductor
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 74.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.9 |
| Rev LTM | 594 |
| Op Inc LTM | -16 |
| FCF LTM | 33 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1 |
| CFO LTM | 99 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 85 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -5.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.9 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 21.6 |
| P/CFO | 18.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -20.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -16.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 10062022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3022022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11122021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
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