Via Transportation (VIA)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $13.79 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Via Transportation (VIA)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $13.79Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -32% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -97% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -81 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Mobility, and Cloud Computing. Themes include On-Demand Transit, Shared Mobility Platforms, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 354% | ||
| Key risksVIA key risks include [1] its ongoing operating losses and an unclear path to profitability and [2] a heavy reliance on large public sector contracts. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Mobility, and Cloud Computing. Themes include On-Demand Transit, Shared Mobility Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -97% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -81 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -20% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 354% |
| Key risksVIA key risks include [1] its ongoing operating losses and an unclear path to profitability and [2] a heavy reliance on large public sector contracts. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Via Transportation (VIA) stock has lost about 60% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Widened Net Loss Following Q3 2025 Earnings. Via Transportation's stock declined approximately 15% after its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 13, 2025, which was its first as a public company. Despite a 32% year-over-year revenue increase to $110 million, the net loss widened to $36.9 million, compared to $21.3 million in the previous year, largely due to $11 million in financing costs from convertible bonds.
2. Short Seller Allegations Questioning Business Model. On March 10, 2026, a report by Bleecker Street Research caused Via's stock to fall 2%. The report alleged that Via primarily operates as a labor-intensive transit contractor, not a software platform, with revenue driven by driver hours and vehicle utilization rather than software licenses. It also raised concerns about the sustainability of Via's revenue base, suggesting that many new deployments rely on temporary federal grants or COVID relief funding expected to expire in 2026. Furthermore, the report criticized Via's accounting practices, claiming the company inflates annual recurring revenue by booking large implementation fees and up to 18 months of software charges upfront.
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1. Widened Net Loss Following Q3 2025 Earnings. Via Transportation's stock declined approximately 15% after its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 13, 2025, which was its first as a public company. Despite a 32% year-over-year revenue increase to $110 million, the net loss widened to $36.9 million, compared to $21.3 million in the previous year, largely due to $11 million in financing costs from convertible bonds.
2. Short Seller Allegations Questioning Business Model. On March 10, 2026, a report by Bleecker Street Research caused Via's stock to fall 2%. The report alleged that Via primarily operates as a labor-intensive transit contractor, not a software platform, with revenue driven by driver hours and vehicle utilization rather than software licenses. It also raised concerns about the sustainability of Via's revenue base, suggesting that many new deployments rely on temporary federal grants or COVID relief funding expected to expire in 2026. Furthermore, the report criticized Via's accounting practices, claiming the company inflates annual recurring revenue by booking large implementation fees and up to 18 months of software charges upfront.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -60.8% change in VIA stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.2% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.83 | 13.64 | -60.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 404 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | 2.7 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72 | 81 | -11.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VIA | -60.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 10.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | 1.4% | -13.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VIA | 24.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 19.2% |
| Sector (XLU) | 9.7% | -4.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VIA | 24.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 19.2% |
| Sector (XLU) | 18.4% | -4.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VIA | -53.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 4.3% |
| Sector (XLU) | 53.8% | 5.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VIA Return | 28% | -51% | -62% | 17% | 164% | -51% | -65% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -5% | 36% | 28% | -10% | -22% | 32% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VIA Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 17% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 44% | 67% | 58% | 50% | 11% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VIA Max Drawdown | 0% | -53% | -78% | 0% | 0% | -54% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -24% | -11% | -6% | -27% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TRMB, PSN, VRRM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VIA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1027.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 279 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -68.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 213.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to TRMB, PSN, VRRM
In The Past
Via Transportation's stock fell -91.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -91.1% loss requires a 1027.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Via Transportation (VIA)
Via Renewables, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an independent retail energy services company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Retail Electricity and Retail Natural Gas. The Retail Electricity segment engages in the transmission and sale of electricity to residential and commercial customers. The Retail Natural Gas segment is involved in the transportation, distribution, and sale of natural gas to residential and commercial customers. As of March 2, 2022, the company operated in 101 utility service territories across 19 states and the District of Columbia. It has approximately 408,000 residential customer equivalents. The company was formerly known as Spark Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Via Renewables, Inc. in August 2021. Via Renewables, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
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Here are the major services provided by Via Renewables, Inc.:- Retail Electricity: The company provides the transmission and sale of electricity to residential and commercial customers.
- Retail Natural Gas: The company handles the transportation, distribution, and sale of natural gas to residential and commercial customers.
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Via Renewables, Inc. (symbol: VIA) primarily serves the following categories of customers:
- Residential customers
- Commercial customers
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Here are some of the major suppliers for Via Renewables, Inc. (symbol: VIA):
- CenterPoint Energy (CNP)
- Exelon Corporation (EXC)
- Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED)
- American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP)
- NiSource Inc. (NI)
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W. Keith Maxwell III, Chief Executive Officer & Chairman of the Board of Directors
Mr. Maxwell founded the predecessor of Spark Energy in 1999. He also serves as Chief Executive Officer of several privately owned energy-related companies. Before founding the predecessor of Spark Energy, Mr. Maxwell was a founding partner in Wickford Energy, an oil and natural gas services company that was sold to Black Hills Utilities in 1997. He has served as Chief Executive Officer of Via Renewables, Inc. since November 2020 and as a director and non-executive Chairman of the Board of Directors since August 2014, having also served as interim Chief Executive Officer from March 2020 to November 2020.
Mike Barajas, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Barajas was appointed Chief Financial Officer in November 2021. Immediately prior to this role, he served as the Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. He is responsible for the company's accounting, tax, SEC reporting, treasury, financial planning and analysis, and investor relations functions, and also serves as the Chief Risk Officer. Before rejoining Via Renewables in 2019, Mr. Barajas worked for various energy companies, including Spark Energy (from 2009 to 2014), Marlin Midstream, Xcalibur Logistics, and National Gas & Electric, gaining leadership experience in accounting, finance, mergers & acquisitions, and treasury. He is a Certified Public Accountant in Texas.
Paul Konikowski, Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Konikowski was appointed Chief Operating Officer in November 2021. Previously, he served as Senior Vice President of National Gas and Electric ("NG&E") from April 2015. Before his time at NG&E, Mr. Konikowski held positions as Chief Operating Officer of Glacial Energy and Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer of Via Renewables, Inc. (formerly Spark Energy, Inc.). He has more than 20 years of experience in the retail energy sector, encompassing sales, operations, risk, and IT.
Chris Leonard, Executive Vice President of Structuring and Supply
Misti Day, Vice President, Operations
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Here are the key risks to Via Renewables, Inc.'s business:
- Commodity Price Volatility, Weather Dependence, and Decarbonization Policies: As a retail energy services company, Via Renewables is highly susceptible to fluctuating wholesale commodity prices for electricity and natural gas, which can significantly impact its margins and financial results. Extreme and unpredictable weather conditions directly influence consumer demand and energy prices, adding another layer of volatility. Furthermore, evolving decarbonization policies and the broader energy transition could reduce demand for certain products, increase operational costs, and necessitate substantial changes to the company's business model.
- Intense Regulatory Scrutiny, Compliance Requirements, and Legal Proceedings: The retail energy sector is subject to extensive and evolving federal, state, and local regulations. Via Renewables faces risks related to maintaining necessary operating licenses, complying with various rules (including those concerning consumer protection, telemarketing, data privacy, and cybersecurity for critical infrastructure), and adapting to stricter sustainability reporting demands. The company has also recently faced a securities fraud investigation amidst allegations of misrepresenting its business model during its Initial Public Offering (IPO), which could lead to substantial legal costs, reputational damage, and financial penalties.
- Competition, Customer Acquisition and Retention Challenges, and Integration Risks from Acquisitions: Via Renewables operates in a competitive market, making customer acquisition and retention a continuous challenge. The company's growth strategy often involves acquiring customer portfolios, which carries inherent risks related to successfully integrating new operations and realizing the anticipated financial benefits from these acquisitions.
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- Increased adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) such as rooftop solar and battery storage by residential and commercial customers. As these technologies become more affordable and efficient, customers can generate and store their own power, reducing their reliance on purchasing electricity and natural gas from retail energy providers like Via Renewables. This represents a long-term shift away from centralized energy consumption that could erode Via Renewables' customer base and revenue.
- Expansion of Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) programs in states with deregulated energy markets. CCAs allow local governments to procure electricity on behalf of their residents and businesses, often offering competitive rates and a higher percentage of renewable energy options. When a CCA is formed in a service territory, it effectively consolidates the customer base and removes them from the competitive market, directly reducing the potential pool of customers for independent retail energy providers like Via Renewables.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12122025 | CTRI | Centuri | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 16.6% | 16.6% | -5.5% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -21.7% | -21.7% | -24.1% |
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | -4.0% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.5% | 27.5% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.9% | 36.9% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 33.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,283 |
| Op Inc LTM | 327 |
| FCF LTM | 249 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 417 |
| CFO LTM | 321 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 470 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.9 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.7 |
| P/E | 19.6 |
| P/CFO | 10.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -18.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -29.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -39.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 0.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -35.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.4% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/27/2026 | -7.5% | 3.1% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | ||
| Median Negative | -7.5% | ||
| Max Positive | 3.1% | ||
| Max Negative | -7.5% | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peres, Nechemia Jacob | Pitango Continuation Fund 2021, LP | Sell | 9152025 | 43.10 | 48,160 | 2,075,696 | 27,409,833 | Form | |
| 2 | Peres, Nechemia Jacob | Pitango Growth Fund I, L.P. | Sell | 9152025 | 43.10 | 135,339 | 5,833,111 | 77,027,415 | Form | |
| 3 | Peres, Nechemia Jacob | Pitango Growth Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 9152025 | 43.10 | 24,489 | 1,055,476 | 13,937,462 | Form | |
| 4 | Peres, Nechemia Jacob | Pitango Growth Principals Fund I, L.P. | Sell | 9152025 | 43.10 | 2,717 | 117,103 | 1,545,997 | Form | |
| 5 | Peres, Nechemia Jacob | Pitango Growth Principals Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 9152025 | 43.10 | 580 | 24,998 | 330,275 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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