UWM (UWMC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.75 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
UWM (UWMC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.75Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.9% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -3.2% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 232% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 80x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Real Estate Data Analytics. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.7% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -241%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -245% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.9% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -3.2% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 232% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 80x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -241%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -245% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UWMC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Report
UWM Holdings Corporation announced its third-quarter 2025 results on November 6, 2025. The company reported a net income of $31.9 million for the quarter, with a loan origination volume of $39.5 billion. While revenue surpassed expectations at $843.25 million, the earnings per share (EPS) of $0.01 fell significantly short of the forecasted $0.0749, representing an 86.65% negative surprise in earnings.
2. Strong Operational Performance and AI Integration in Q3
Despite the EPS miss, the Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted robust operational achievements, including a record lock day in September, with $4.8 billion in locks. A notable success was the integration of "Mia," a generative AI loan officer assistant, which made over 400,000 calls and contributed to over 14,000 closings, exceeding expectations.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UWMC Return | - | -56% | -38% | 132% | -13% | 2% | -44% |
| Peers Return | 36% | 14% | -28% | 56% | 6% | 15% | 113% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UWMC Win Rate | 64% | 33% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 65% | 38% | 55% | 53% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UWMC Max Drawdown | - | -59% | -47% | 0% | -16% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -13% | -39% | -9% | -16% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ESNT, WD, SNFCA, RKT, PFSI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UWMC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -79.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 391.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 148 days |
Compare to ESNT, WD, SNFCA, RKT, PFSI
In The Past
UWM's stock fell -79.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/1/2021. A -79.7% loss requires a 391.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UWMC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 10102025 | UWMC | UWM | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 6.0% | 6.0% | -9.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 10102025 | UWMC | UWM | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 6.0% | 6.0% | -9.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for UWM
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,329 |
| Op Inc LTM | 341 |
| FCF LTM | -1,107 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -854 |
| CFO LTM | -896 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -642 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 28.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -34.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -38.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -14.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.1 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 9.5 |
| P/E | 11.8 |
| P/CFO | -1.7 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -12.9% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |