PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $134.14 | Market Cap: $6.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $134.14Market Cap: $6.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1%, Dist 3Y High is -1.1% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 269% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -54% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | Key risksPFSI key risks include [1] earnings volatility from the dual sensitivity of its production and MSR portfolio to interest rate changes, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1%, Dist 3Y High is -1.1% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 269% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -54% |
| Key risksPFSI key risks include [1] earnings volatility from the dual sensitivity of its production and MSR portfolio to interest rate changes, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PFSI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Based on the most recent available information, here are the key points for why PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI) stock has experienced significant positive movement:
1. Strong Earnings Performance: PennyMac Financial Services reported robust financial results in late 2024, contributing to positive investor sentiment. The company announced net income of $104.5 million and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.95 for the fourth quarter of 2024, following net income of $69.4 million and $1.30 diluted EPS for the third quarter of 2024.
2. Growth in Production Segment: The company demonstrated strong growth in its Production segment. Pretax income for this segment surged to $107.9 million in Q3 2024, a substantial increase from the prior quarter, driven by higher volumes across all lending channels, particularly in consumer direct. This positive trend in funded volumes also led to increased production expenses in Q4 2024.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PFSI Return | 95% | 8% | -17% | 58% | 17% | 31% | 321% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -42% | 89% | -15% | 11% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PFSI Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 49% | 37% | 55% | 50% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PFSI Max Drawdown | -50% | -14% | -43% | -1% | -6% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -50% | -11% | -24% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RKT, UWMC, RITM, WD, LDI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PFSI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -56.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 367 days | 120 days |
Compare to ESNT, WD, SNFCA, FNMA, RKT
In The Past
PennyMac Financial Services's stock fell -43.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/30/2021. A -43.7% loss requires a 77.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PFSI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PennyMac Financial Services
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.0 |
| Rev LTM | 2,174 |
| Op Inc LTM | 341 |
| FCF LTM | -1,606 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1,508 |
| CFO LTM | -1,424 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -1,274 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 33.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 28.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -64.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -45.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -65.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -47.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.0 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 13.9 |
| P/E | 10.4 |
| P/CFO | -2.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -45.8% |
| D/E | 3.2 |
| Net D/E | 2.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 68.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -20.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Servicing | 715 | 1,080 | 817 | 841 | 441 |
| Production | 645 | 865 | 2,307 | 2,825 | 994 |
| Corporate and other | 42 | ||||
| Investment Management | 40 | 43 | 40 | 43 | |
| Total | 1,402 | 1,986 | 3,167 | 3,706 | 1,477 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Servicing | 14,036 | 12,929 | 9,821 | 23,709 | 5,348 |
| Production | 4,560 | 3,867 | 8,934 | 7,870 | 4,836 |
| Corporate and other | 248 | ||||
| Investment Management | 26 | 21 | 18 | 20 | |
| Total | 18,845 | 16,823 | 18,777 | 31,598 | 10,204 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2025 | 7.2% | 7.7% | 3.2% |
| 7/22/2025 | -7.4% | -8.9% | 1.3% |
| 4/22/2025 | -2.8% | -0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1/30/2025 | -8.8% | -8.4% | -9.5% |
| 10/22/2024 | -3.5% | -1.2% | -0.6% |
| 7/23/2024 | -3.8% | -2.0% | -0.6% |
| 4/24/2024 | -6.4% | -6.4% | -1.9% |
| 2/1/2024 | 4.7% | 1.4% | -4.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -6.6% | -4.6% |
| Max Positive | 16.9% | 11.2% | 26.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.8% | -13.2% | -14.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |