Tower Semiconductor (TSEM)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $95.0 | Market Cap: $10.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Tower Semiconductor (TSEM)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $95.0Market Cap: $10.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 132%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 114% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Technologies, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Technologies, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 132%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 114% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
TSEM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
During the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025, Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) experienced a significant stock movement, driven by several key developments:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Optimistic Fourth Quarter Outlook: Tower Semiconductor reported robust financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, with revenue of $396 million, surpassing market expectations, and a net profit of $54 million. The company further fueled investor confidence by providing an upbeat guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, forecasting revenue of $440 million, which exceeded Wall Street consensus. This strong financial health and positive outlook contributed to a significant increase in its shares, including a 15% jump following the announcement and a year-to-date rise of over 63%.
2. Strategic Capacity Expansion for AI and Data Center Technologies: The company announced an additional investment of $300 million dedicated to expanding its Silicon Photonics (SiPho) and Silicon-Germanium (SiGe) capacities. These advanced technologies are critical for high-speed optical data transmission, particularly in the rapidly growing Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data center markets, indicating a strong strategic alignment with high-demand segments.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TSEM Return | 7% | 54% | 9% | -29% | 69% | 85% | 296% |
| Peers Return | 46% | 17% | -5% | 13% | -4% | 0% | 78% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TSEM Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 33% | 42% | 75% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 42% | 32% | 42% | 35% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TSEM Max Drawdown | -44% | -2% | -20% | -49% | -7% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -12% | -30% | -12% | -16% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TSEM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 260 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -62.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 164.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1050 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1980.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3198 days | 1480 days |
Compare to QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ
In The Past
Tower Semiconductor's stock fell -55.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/4/2022. A -55.4% loss requires a 124.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TSEM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -13.6% | -13.6% | -13.6% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.5% | -3.5% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.0% | -4.0% | -4.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| 09302023 | TSEM | Tower Semiconductor | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 36.2% | 78.8% | -10.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -13.6% | -13.6% | -13.6% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.5% | -3.5% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.0% | -4.0% | -4.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| 09302023 | TSEM | Tower Semiconductor | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 36.2% | 78.8% | -10.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Tower Semiconductor
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 106.40 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,115 |
| Op Inc LTM | 90 |
| FCF LTM | 34 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 65 |
| CFO LTM | 199 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 532 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.7 |
| P/S | 5.2 |
| P/EBIT | 19.7 |
| P/E | 32.4 |
| P/CFO | 24.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -20.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4302025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7292024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4222024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 5162023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4292022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11082021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
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