TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC (TPVG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.62 | Market Cap: $267.0 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC (TPVG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.62Market Cap: $267.0 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 33%, Dividend Yield is 19%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 29% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 193% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 82% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -93%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -93% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Venture Capital, and Private Credit. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 33%, Dividend Yield is 19%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 29% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 82% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Venture Capital, and Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 193% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -93%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -93% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TPVG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the approximate 0.7% stock movement for TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC (TPVG) from the approximate time period of August 31, 2025, to early December 2025, based on the most recent available information:
1. Q3 2025 Financial Results Below Expectations
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, showing net investment income of $0.26 per share, which missed expectations by $0.03. This also represented a notable decline from the prior year's net investment income of $0.35 per share.
2. Decrease in Total Investment Income
Total investment income for TPVG in the third quarter of 2025 amounted to $22.6 million, a decrease from $26.5 million in the prior year's third quarter. This lower investment income was attributed to reduced interest income from investments.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TPVG Return | 6% | 51% | -35% | 20% | -20% | -2% | -2% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 14% | -11% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 33% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TPVG Win Rate | 58% | 83% | 33% | 58% | 25% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 40% | 28% | 45% | 38% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TPVG Max Drawdown | -79% | -2% | -37% | -2% | -32% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -10% | -25% | -9% | -9% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, FGNX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TPVG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -79.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 397.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 324 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 120 days |
Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, FGNX
In The Past
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC's stock fell -45.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/22/2021. A -45.1% loss requires a 82.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TPVG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 72 |
| Op Inc LTM | 44 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 38 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 38 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 45.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -27.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -28.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 3.6 |
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/CFO | -5.7 |
| Total Yield | 21.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| D/E | 1.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -7.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -75.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3052025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3022022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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