Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 119x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.12, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.6%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Future of Freight. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Future of Freight. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.12, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 119x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.6%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TFIN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period for Triumph Financial (TFIN) stock movement, August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, actual stock performance data for this specific period is not available. However, based on information available leading up to and within parts of this future period, here are some key points that could influence the stock:

1. Q3 2025 Earnings Performance: Triumph Financial reported Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.04 on October 15, 2025, beating estimates. Total earnings for the quarter were $907.00 thousand. While the company is currently profitable, its earnings growth has been slower compared to the industry and market, and its return on equity is lower than the industry and market averages.

2. Strategic Restructuring and Efficiency Initiatives: During its Q3 2025 earnings call, Triumph Financial signaled a shift towards higher operational efficiency and margin expansion through a 5% expense base reduction, with most savings expected in Q4 2025. Management expects total expenses to be approximately $96.5 million in both 2025 and 2026. The company also reorganized its go-to-market strategy around four key customer verticals: brokers, carriers, shippers, and factors.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TFIN Return28%145%-59%64%13%-38%47%
Peers Return-2%12%-18%18%1%19%28%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TFIN Win Rate67%75%33%58%58%40% 
Peers Win Rate22%25%28%35%27%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TFIN Max Drawdown-49%0%-61%-3%-15%-49% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-2%-23%-16%-10%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTFINS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-65.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven190.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-54.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven121.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven217 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven463 days120 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

Triumph Financial's stock fell -65.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/24/2021. A -65.6% loss requires a 190.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Triumph Financial (TFIN)

Better Bets than Triumph Financial (TFIN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TFIN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
TFIN_12312021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312021TFINTriumph FinancialQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-46.3%-59.0%-61.4%
TFIN_5312021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312021TFINTriumph FinancialQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
55.2%-13.1%-23.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
TFIN_12312021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312021TFINTriumph FinancialQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-46.3%-59.0%-61.4%
TFIN_5312021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312021TFINTriumph FinancialQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
55.2%-13.1%-23.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Triumph Financial

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TFINNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameTriumph .NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Price60.1011.3121.9516.4715.0917.4416.95
Mkt Cap1.40.30.2--84.20.9
Rev LTM4222696090268,967180
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM14-52020-843,6579
FCF 3Y Avg1-22916-52,3175
CFO LTM51-51920-443,94112
CFO 3Y Avg55-22818-52,50618

Growth & Margins

TFINNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameTriumph .NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Rev Chg LTM1.0%21.8%13.1%-2.1%23.7%13.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.6%31.6%-2.3%-0.0%70.1%0.0%
Rev Chg Q3.1%20.7%19.4%-16.5%20.4%19.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.8%4.7%4.6%-4.0%5.0%4.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM12.2%-193.4%33.7%-4.2%17.4%44.0%14.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.2%-91.8%31.7%-19.2%37.8%19.2%
FCF/Rev LTM3.3%-193.4%33.0%-8.3%15.3%40.8%9.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.2%-91.9%27.6%-17.8%34.9%17.8%

Valuation

TFINNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameTriumph .NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Cap1.40.30.2--84.20.9
P/S2.81.12.7--7.42.7
P/EBIT-------
P/E119.14.911.6--28.820.2
P/CFO23.1-0.67.9--16.812.3
Total Yield0.8%20.2%13.5%--3.5%8.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%4.9%--0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.2%-76.1%9.6%--4.3%2.2%
D/E0.32.60.2--0.00.3
Net D/E0.11.8-4.5---0.4-0.1

Returns

TFINNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameTriumph .NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
1M Rtn9.9%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.0%8.1%7.6%
3M Rtn-3.4%-6.0%13.0%9.1%13.4%17.0%11.1%
6M Rtn3.9%10.7%29.3%--46.1%20.0%
12M Rtn-42.5%-14.3%32.6%--49.4%9.1%
3Y Rtn-1.2%-24.8%8.7%--291.0%3.8%
1M Excs Rtn9.9%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.1%8.2%7.7%
3M Excs Rtn-11.6%-12.1%4.9%1.3%9.3%11.9%3.1%
6M Excs Rtn-10.8%-4.0%14.6%--31.3%5.3%
12M Excs Rtn-57.4%-30.2%21.1%--25.6%-4.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-68.6%-94.1%-60.5%--240.5%-64.6%

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking4,9194,9115,5695,7924,976
Factoring1,0771,2601,6791,122662
Corporate and Other1,0571,0621,010862771
Payments547372293116 
Eliminations-2,252-2,271-2,595-1,955-1,349
Total5,3475,3345,9565,9365,060


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,740,797
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120250.8%
Average Daily Volume208,953
Days-to-Cover Short Interest13.12
Basic Shares Quantity23,752,331
Short % of Basic Shares11.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251015202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025716202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025416202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241016202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024717202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024417202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231019202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023720202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023425202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221019202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022720202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022420202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021214202210-K 12/31/2021