Triumph Financial (TFIN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $60.82 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Triumph Financial (TFIN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $60.82Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 119x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.12, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Future of Freight. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Future of Freight. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.12, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 119x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TFIN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period for Triumph Financial (TFIN) stock movement, August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, actual stock performance data for this specific period is not available. However, based on information available leading up to and within parts of this future period, here are some key points that could influence the stock:
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Performance: Triumph Financial reported Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.04 on October 15, 2025, beating estimates. Total earnings for the quarter were $907.00 thousand. While the company is currently profitable, its earnings growth has been slower compared to the industry and market, and its return on equity is lower than the industry and market averages.
2. Strategic Restructuring and Efficiency Initiatives: During its Q3 2025 earnings call, Triumph Financial signaled a shift towards higher operational efficiency and margin expansion through a 5% expense base reduction, with most savings expected in Q4 2025. Management expects total expenses to be approximately $96.5 million in both 2025 and 2026. The company also reorganized its go-to-market strategy around four key customer verticals: brokers, carriers, shippers, and factors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TFIN Return | 28% | 145% | -59% | 64% | 13% | -38% | 47% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 12% | -18% | 18% | 1% | 19% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TFIN Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 25% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TFIN Max Drawdown | -49% | 0% | -61% | -3% | -15% | -49% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -2% | -23% | -16% | -10% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TFIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 190.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -54.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 121.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 463 days | 120 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
Triumph Financial's stock fell -65.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/24/2021. A -65.6% loss requires a 190.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TFIN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 12312021 | TFIN | Triumph Financial | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -46.3% | -59.0% | -61.4% |
| 05312021 | TFIN | Triumph Financial | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 55.2% | -13.1% | -23.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 12312021 | TFIN | Triumph Financial | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -46.3% | -59.0% | -61.4% |
| 05312021 | TFIN | Triumph Financial | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 55.2% | -13.1% | -23.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Triumph Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 180 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 9 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5 |
| CFO LTM | 12 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 18 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 20.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 3.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -64.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10152025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7162025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4162025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10162024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7172024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4172024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10192023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10192022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7202022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4202022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |