Tearsheet

Semler Scientific (SMLR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.54 | Market Cap: $240.9 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

Semler Scientific (SMLR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.54
Market Cap: $240.9 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -98%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -43%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -833%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -98%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -43%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -833%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SMLR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining why Semler Scientific (SMLR) stock moved by approximately -31% around the period leading up to May 2025: 1. Significant Decline in First Quarter 2025 Financial Results.
Semler Scientific experienced a substantial after-hours stock slump due to its first-quarter 2025 earnings report, which revealed a 44% decrease in total revenues to $8.8 million compared to the prior year. Additionally, the company reported deepening net losses, reaching $64.7 million, a significant contrast to the $6.1 million net income in the first quarter of 2024.

2. Impact of DOJ Settlement Agreement.
The company's stock fell in response to disclosures regarding a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into potential False Claims Act violations. Semler Scientific first disclosed on February 28, 2025, that federal investigators were seeking a settlement, causing an approximate 9% stock drop. By April 15, 2025, the revelation of an agreement in principle to pay nearly $30 million to resolve these claims led to an additional 10% decline in shares overnight.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SMLR Return-5%101%-64%34%22%-63%-58%
Peers Return42%3%-9%-5%-14%33%43%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SMLR Win Rate17%17%42%58%42%20% 
Peers Win Rate40%33%32%28%25%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SMLR Max Drawdown-36%0%-70%-42%-53%-66% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-12%-25%-25%-21%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: A, ATEC, CERS, BLLN, BNBX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSMLRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-87.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven678.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-44.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven80.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven554 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-27.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven38.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven133 days120 days

Compare to A, ATEC, CERS, BLLN, BNBX


In The Past

Semler Scientific's stock fell -87.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/29/2021. A -87.1% loss requires a 678.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Semler Scientific (SMLR)

Better Bets than Semler Scientific (SMLR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SMLR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Semler Scientific

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SMLRAATECCERSBLLNBNBXMedian
NameSemler S.Agilent .Alphatec Cerus BillionT.BNB Plus  
Mkt Price20.44149.2621.231.99102.763.1120.84
Mkt Cap0.242.43.20.4--1.8
Rev LTM436,788728199-4199
Op Inc LTM51,444-74-9--13-9
FCF LTM-3581,088-30--14-3
FCF 3Y Avg-1261,308-112-15--10-15
CFO LTM121,495354--1312
CFO 3Y Avg181,662-36-12--10-10

Growth & Margins

SMLRAATECCERSBLLNBNBXMedian
NameSemler S.Agilent .Alphatec Cerus BillionT.BNB Plus  
Rev Chg LTM-30.4%4.5%27.1%13.0%--51.0%4.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.3%0.8%31.8%8.3%--12.6%0.8%
Rev Chg Q-43.2%10.1%30.4%14.5%-34.3%14.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-12.7%2.4%6.7%3.5%-7.5%3.5%
Op Mgn LTM12.1%21.3%-10.1%-4.8%--306.1%-4.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg26.9%21.5%-21.8%-11.9%--170.3%-11.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-13.5%-0.1%3.8%1.3%-42.9%1.3%
CFO/Rev LTM29.0%22.0%4.8%1.8%--301.5%4.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg31.6%24.6%-7.6%-7.5%--141.9%-7.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-832.6%16.0%-0.5%0.1%--313.1%-0.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-289.2%19.4%-21.7%-9.7%--147.0%-21.7%

Valuation

SMLRAATECCERSBLLNBNBXMedian
NameSemler S.Agilent .Alphatec Cerus BillionT.BNB Plus  
Mkt Cap0.242.43.20.4--1.8
P/S10.64.93.01.5--4.0
P/EBIT-6.722.2-19.2-42.1---13.0
P/E12.327.5-14.2-19.1---1.0
P/CFO36.522.462.885.5--49.6
Total Yield8.2%4.5%-7.0%-5.2%---0.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-28.2%3.7%-11.2%-5.1%---8.1%
D/E0.20.10.30.3--0.2
Net D/E0.20.10.20.1--0.1

Returns

SMLRAATECCERSBLLNBNBXMedian
NameSemler S.Agilent .Alphatec Cerus BillionT.BNB Plus  
1M Rtn-19.6%3.2%10.1%30.9%--8.5%3.2%
3M Rtn-29.5%19.4%33.5%51.9%--26.5%
6M Rtn-42.8%30.4%72.9%38.2%--34.3%
12M Rtn-67.9%8.0%112.3%12.4%--10.2%
3Y Rtn-35.3%-2.0%106.7%-52.0%---18.6%
1M Excs Rtn-19.5%3.2%10.1%31.0%--8.5%3.2%
3M Excs Rtn-32.6%11.1%22.9%44.3%--17.0%
6M Excs Rtn-57.6%15.7%58.2%23.5%--19.6%
12M Excs Rtn-77.7%-4.5%89.0%-6.0%---5.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-101.7%-72.6%50.7%-119.0%---87.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Manufacturing, marketing, and sales of its patented and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) cleared6857533933
Total6857533933


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,208,563
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.1%
Average Daily Volume741,767
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.98
Basic Shares Quantity11,727,660
Short % of Basic Shares18.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023307202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023814202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023512202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022323202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021304202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211105202110-Q 9/30/2021