Sabra Health Care REIT (SBRA)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $18.78 | Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Health Care REITs
Sabra Health Care REIT (SBRA)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $18.78Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Health Care REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 6.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 7.6% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.2%, Dist 3Y High is -4.2% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 54% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% | Key risksSBRA key risks include [1] significant tenant concentration, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 6.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 7.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.2%, Dist 3Y High is -4.2% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 54% |
| Key risksSBRA key risks include [1] significant tenant concentration, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SBRA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the -0.6% stock movement for Sabra Health Care REIT (SBRA) from August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025:
**1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss:** Sabra Health Care REIT reported its third-quarter 2025 revenue of $190.04 million, which fell below analysts' consensus estimate of $193.44 million. This revenue miss, despite a beat on earnings per share, likely contributed to a slight negative market reaction.
**2. Share Dilution from Equity Offerings:** During the third quarter of 2025, Sabra issued 9.6 million shares from outstanding forward sale agreements, generating $165.0 million in net proceeds. Additionally, on August 5, 2025, the company established a new $750 million At-The-Market (ATM) program, allowing for the sale of up to 3.2 million shares. These equity issuances could have raised concerns about share dilution, placing mild downward pressure on the stock.
**3. Mixed Analyst Ratings and Price Target Adjustments:** Investor sentiment was potentially tempered by a mixed bag of analyst ratings during the period. While some analysts maintained "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings, UBS initiated coverage with a "Hold" rating on November 18, 2025, and Wall Street Zen reportedly lowered shares to a "Sell" rating on November 8, 2025. This divergence in analyst opinions could have contributed to a more cautious outlook for the stock.
**4. Updated 2025 Guidance:** On November 5, 2025, Sabra updated its 2025 earnings guidance. While the full implications of this update are not detailed as overtly negative, any adjustments to guidance that were not as robust as anticipated by the market, even if minor, could lead to a slight stock price adjustment.
**5. Absence of Strong New Catalysts to Drive Significant Growth:** Despite positive developments such as a Moody's credit rating upgrade on September 10, 2025, and improvements in senior housing occupancy, the period lacked a significant new catalyst to strongly drive the stock higher. The dividend also remained constant. This, coupled with general market scrutiny of REIT valuations and the broader interest rate environment, may have allowed minor selling pressure or profit-taking to result in the observed small decline.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SBRA Return | -11% | -16% | 0% | 26% | 31% | 16% | 44% |
| Peers Return | -6% | 6% | -9% | 24% | 31% | 34% | 99% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SBRA Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 53% | 50% | 62% | 70% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SBRA Max Drawdown | -72% | -23% | -12% | -16% | -10% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -12% | -22% | -5% | -9% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WELL, VTR, OHI, NHI, CTRE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SBRA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 543 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -73.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 277.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to VTR, OHI, HR, UHT, WELL
In The Past
Sabra Health Care REIT's stock fell -45.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/29/2021. A -45.7% loss requires a 84.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SBRA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 1.1% | 1.1% | -5.8% |
| 06302020 | SBRA | Sabra Health Care REIT | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 26.0% | 35.7% | -7.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 1.1% | 1.1% | -5.8% |
| 06302020 | SBRA | Sabra Health Care REIT | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 26.0% | 35.7% | -7.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sabra Health Care REIT
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 60.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.4 |
| Rev LTM | 948 |
| Op Inc LTM | 492 |
| FCF LTM | 609 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 500 |
| CFO LTM | 613 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 518 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 43.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 44.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 54.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 53.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 54.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 52.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.4 |
| P/S | 10.8 |
| P/EBIT | 22.0 |
| P/E | 27.5 |
| P/CFO | 19.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 31.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 96.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 13.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 18.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 3.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% |
| 8/4/2025 | -1.2% | 1.2% | 4.9% |
| 5/5/2025 | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% |
| 2/19/2025 | -1.0% | -1.0% | 4.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -3.9% | -0.4% | -3.7% |
| 8/7/2024 | -1.2% | -1.4% | 5.5% |
| 5/8/2024 | -2.6% | -2.4% | -3.9% |
| 2/27/2024 | -0.2% | -0.7% | 3.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 10 | 15 |
| # Negative | 18 | 14 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.1% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.5% | 11.9% | 46.5% |
| Max Negative | -13.3% | -11.1% | -57.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |