Ventas (VTR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $78.95 | Market Cap: $36.0 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Health Care REITs
Ventas (VTR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $78.95Market Cap: $36.0 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Health Care REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.6%, Dist 3Y High is -2.6% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 134x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Key risksVTR key risks include [1] significant labor cost pressures and staffing shortages within its senior housing portfolio, Show more. | |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.6% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Geriatric Care, and ESG REITs. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Geriatric Care, and ESG REITs. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.6%, Dist 3Y High is -2.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 134x |
| Key risksVTR key risks include [1] significant labor cost pressures and staffing shortages within its senior housing portfolio, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VTR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Financial Performance and Positive 2025 Outlook.
Ventas reported robust financial performance and growth for the full year 2024, with expectations for significant net operating income (NOI) growth in its Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP) and accretive senior housing investments in 2025. This positive outlook and strong past performance likely boosted investor confidence.
2. Continued Double-Digit Growth in Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP).
The company achieved its third consecutive year of double-digit growth in its SHOP segment for 2024, a trend anticipated to extend into 2025. This strong organic growth in a key segment was a significant driver. Furthermore, Q3 2025 results showed SHOP same-store NOI growth at 16% year-over-year.
3. Improved Financial Position and Dividend Increase.
Ventas's Net Debt-to-Further Adjusted EBITDA improved to within its long-term targeted range by the end of the fourth quarter of 2024. Additionally, a 7% increase in the quarterly dividend was declared in February 2025, payable in April 2025, signaling financial strength and a commitment to shareholder returns.
4. Exceeding Q3 2025 Earnings Estimates.
Ventas reported better-than-expected results for the third quarter of 2025, with EPS of $0.14 surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.09 and revenue reaching $1.49 billion against an expectation of $1.44 billion. This positive earnings surprise, along with a 10% year-over-year growth in Normalized FFO per share, contributed to a stock price increase.
5. Favorable Demographics and Demand in Senior Housing.
Management consistently highlighted the unprecedented demand for senior housing due to a rapidly growing senior population and favorable supply/demand fundamentals. This demographic trend was expected to drive advantaged growth from Ventas's portfolio in 2024 and subsequent years, fostering a positive market sentiment for the company.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VTR Return | -10% | 8% | -9% | 15% | 22% | 36% | 70% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 19% | -25% | -0% | 10% | 14% | 10% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VTR Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 52% | 35% | 57% | 63% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VTR Max Drawdown | -71% | -6% | -28% | -9% | -16% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -10% | -34% | -25% | -18% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WELL, OHI, HR, MPW, ARE. See VTR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VTR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 696 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -73.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 271.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 741 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 479 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 602 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WELL, MPW, ALX, VTR, OHI
In The Past
Ventas's stock fell -43.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/29/2022. A -43.4% loss requires a 76.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Ventas Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can Ventas Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Ventas vs Realty Income: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Ventas vs Microsoft: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Ventas vs Healthpeak Properties: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Ventas Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than VTR Stock: Pay Less Than Ventas To Get More From LLY, MU | |||
| Better Bet Than VTR Stock: Pay Less Than Ventas To Get More From HHH | |||
| VTR Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Ventas Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 24.5% in 2024 and 12.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | December 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 8th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 8th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 6th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | September 13th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VTR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -1.7% | -1.7% | -5.8% |
| 06302020 | VTR | Ventas | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 35.3% | 61.6% | -6.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -1.7% | -1.7% | -5.8% |
| 06302020 | VTR | Ventas | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 35.3% | 61.6% | -6.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ventas
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,082 |
| Op Inc LTM | 643 |
| FCF LTM | 922 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 705 |
| CFO LTM | 1,126 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,010 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.6 |
| P/S | 5.5 |
| P/EBIT | 8.6 |
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/CFO | 17.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 54.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP) | 12,864 | 12,369 | 12,812 | 10,653 | 10,142 |
| Outpatient Medical and Research Portfolio (OM&R) | 6,943 | 6,558 | 6,342 | 6,710 | 7,173 |
| Triple-net leased properties (NNN) | 4,121 | 4,272 | 4,579 | 5,148 | 6,382 |
| Non-Segment | 797 | 958 | |||
| All other assets | 986 | 1,419 | 995 | ||
| Total | 24,725 | 24,158 | 24,718 | 23,929 | 24,692 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 6.6% | 7.5% | 15.2% |
| 7/30/2025 | 1.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| 4/30/2025 | -6.5% | -5.7% | -8.3% |
| 2/12/2025 | 8.3% | 11.5% | 11.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | 2.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% |
| 5/1/2024 | 5.5% | 8.3% | 14.7% |
| 2/15/2024 | -3.1% | -3.3% | -6.9% |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.3% | -4.3% | 7.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 5.3% | 12.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -4.3% | -7.4% |
| Max Positive | 11.2% | 16.1% | 68.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -9.7% | -66.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |