Ferrari (RACE)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $397.79 | Market Cap: $70.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Ferrari (RACE)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $397.79Market Cap: $70.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 10x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 35x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 45x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 2.3 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 2.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 10x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 35x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 45x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
RACE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining why Ferrari's (RACE) stock moved by approximately -8.6% between July 31, 2025, and November 18, 2025:
1. Conservative 2030 Financial Targets: Ferrari's Capital Markets Day on October 9, 2025, revealed long-term financial projections for 2030 that fell short of analyst expectations, contributing to a negative market reaction. The company's target of at least €2.75 billion in EBIT by 2030 implied a 6% compound annual growth rate, notably lower than the 10% anticipated from its 2022 projections.
2. Revised Electric Vehicle (EV) Strategy: During the same Capital Markets Day, Ferrari announced a scaled-back commitment to electrification, reducing its target for fully electric vehicles in its lineup by 2030 from 40% to 20%. This conservative shift disappointed investors who were anticipating a more aggressive strategy towards EVs and was a primary driver of skepticism.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RACE Return | 40% | 13% | -17% | 59% | 26% | -4% | 155% |
| Peers Return | -0% | 28% | -25% | 7% | -38% | -24% | -52% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RACE Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 38% | 23% | 43% | 32% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RACE Max Drawdown | -22% | -18% | -34% | 0% | -2% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -2% | -28% | -7% | -43% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: F, HMC, GGR, AIIO, CJET.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RACE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 302 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 120 days |
Compare to F, HMC, GGR, AIIO, CJET
In The Past
Ferrari's stock fell -38.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/22/2021. A -38.7% loss requires a 63.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Ferrari Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return | |
| Wait For A Dip To Buy Ferrari Stock | Buy or Fear | |
| RACE At Price Support Zone, Right Time To Buy? | Actionable | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RACE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.0% | -1.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.3% | -4.3% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.0% | -1.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.3% | -4.3% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ferrari
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 44.8 |
| Rev LTM | 98,334 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,842 |
| FCF LTM | 623 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,491 |
| CFO LTM | 11,376 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,137 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 44.8 |
| P/S | 0.2 |
| P/EBIT | 4.0 |
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/CFO | 16.8 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -15.6% |
| D/E | 1.6 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -18.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -30.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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